Saturday, July 14, 2012
Let’s Get the Money
SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, July 13, 2012--In an attempt to secure some Saratoga shipping money for you non-Spa residents, here's a look at the final Saturday Late Pick 4 from Belmont Park.
Remember, prior results do not guarantee future outcomes:
SEVENTH RACE: Claiming $20,000, 1 1/16th Miles, Inner Turf Course
All races are on turf with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms; making a treacherous sequence even more dubious. We cannot find a single we completely trust.
We left five horses in the mix; two are preferred. 1-Classic R & B (4-1 ML) returns to his winning $20,000 level for Gary Gullo, having a breakout season and is 26% profitable with one-class droppers. Young gelding with speed benefits from switch to speed-favoring inner surface, gets pole position, and Ortiz and Gullo hooked up successfully last weekend.
8-Monastir (5-2) might lack winning profile but form and energy figures have improved since the Servis claim; trainer is profitable in two categories, batting 25% on turf and 33% with claimers. Cornelio gets along nicely with 5YO gelding.
Sub tickets will include 3-Plainview (3-1), a winner at this level with Lezcano on the re-ride; 9-Quick Recovery (15-1), adding blinkers for 3rd start since claim for 20% trainer this scenario, and 10-Launch N Relaunch (12-1) is longer, uncoupled Gullo circling back to top.
EIGHTH: Grade 1 Man o’ War, 1 3/8th Miles, Widener Turf
Five open possibilities, keying on three: 5-Treasure Beach (9-5) is multiple Group 1 winner for O’Brien, including 2011 Secretariat, is co-fastest on energy figures and stalking style suits race shape. Likely overbet but looms most probable winner with recent regular partner, Jamie Spencer.
3-Point Of Entry (5-2), co-fastest, benefits from good spacing, owns sharp blowout around dogs; Shug is profitable 21% efficient in graded stakes and still developing 4-year-old hails from key G2 Elkhorn (3/5).
7-Hudson Steele (5-1) 5YO gelding keeps improving for Pletcher, held very well pacesetting in G1 Manhattan and switches to Bravo; may get preferable target this matchup.
Subs: 2-Center Divider (10-1) is training on schedule and very well for Chad Brown; tactical speed and inside draw helps as does switch to Rosie. 4-Newsdad (4-1) returns for hot Mott/Alvarado team, also out of Keeneland’s Elkhorn but must prove he’s same runner away from Gulfstream Park.
NINTH: Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Inner Turf
Wide open scramble; considering six possibilities, earmarking three: 4-Fear Nothing (7-2) is realistically placed vs. limited winners following tough-trip maiden score; style suits race shape, drawn inside with Castro, energy figure among field’s fastest sprinting on turf.
6-Leroidessanimeaux (5-1) has improved sprinting since (underrated-turf) Chatterpaul claim, also spotted properly off elevated maiden win; exits fast dirt sprint and never has taken backward step on turf.
8-Brown Indian (3-1) drops significantly for worthy second-off-layup connections sporting strong July 9 blowout--2/21 vs. peer group that week termed breezing; Espinoza more than capable on grass.
9-Trouble In Dodge (5-1) tries limited winners in turf debut with suitable pedigree for live Orseno outfit effective with third-off-layup runners. 12-Top Yank (12-1) makes 5YO debut for barn effective with first-time
acquisitions on preferred Belmont green; seems well meant. 2-Luigi P. (15-1), off series of wide trips, drops to proper level with inside draw; lacks winning profile but price shot can finish with patient handling.
TENTH: New York-Bred Maiden Allowances, 7 Furlongs, Widener Turf
Five possibilities, three likely suspects: 1-Riverdance Rock (3-1) finished well too late in open class Monmouth claiming debut; first time state-breds here for 18% second-out connections with apprentice Coa, who’s doing good work at the Shore track.
7-Shy Humor (7-2) went very well in three open claimers recently, including similar scenario game, tough-trip placing last out, now tries state-breds switching to Lezcano; Belmont’s hottest rider this side of Dominguez.
5-Prime Devil (10-1) debuts for Romans with suitable pedigree and picks up turf ace Bravo in what appears a likely spot.
6-Lord Of Love (30-1) went well in lone turf-sprint start at 2 now returns with series of strong works for Hertler, more than capable with returnees, and picks up live apprentice Jose Ortiz. 4-All Stirred Up (9-2) has improved noticeably off barn change to Lakeman; in close with run deep stretch last out and attracts Rosie.
*MAIN TRACK ONLY: 16-Readthebyline (5-2)