Sunday, July 15, 2012
Saturday’s Late Pick 4 Analysis at Belmont Park Revisited
SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, July 15, 2012--The following is an extension of a thread that was submitted by HRI regular Wendell Corrow beneath Saturday’s Morning Line installment of “Let’s Get the Money.”
In short, Corrow’s point was what really makes more sense for bettors; straight or exotic wagering? That premise is a large issue for another day. This simply refers to yesterday play in the Late Pick 4 from Belmont Park.
Per usual, Corrow’s remarks opened a floodgate of responses, which you may read beneath the original Morning Line post.
My reply went from a “comment” to a follow-up blog because I think it’s instructive, not only regarding yesterday’s events but because provides a template for future submissions/discussions on handicapping/betting theory and its applications.
But that's why I get the medium-size bucks, right? So. to review, the following is the main and four Sub tickets that appeared in the brisnet.com trial submission:
“50-Cent Main Ticket: 1.8 with 3.5.7 with 4.6.8 with 1.5.7 = $27
50-Cent Sub-1: 3.9.10 with 3.5.7. with 4.6.8 with 1.5.7 = $40.50
50-Cent Sub-2: 1.8. with 2.4 with 4.6.8 with 1.5.7 = $18
50-Cent Sub 3: 1.8 with 3.5.7 with 2.9.12 with 1.5.7 = $27
50-Cent Sub 4: 1.8 with 3.5.7 with 4.6.8 with 4.6 = $18
Larger Bankrolls: Take Main Ticket twice.
Smaller Bankrolls: Take Main Ticket only and preferred Sub”
Mr. Corrow, and audience, you'll have to take my word for what actually happened next, or not. It doesn’t matter and neither is it the point.
The following tickets were submitted to a representative at Brisnet.com as an example of what my personal Daily Late P4 Play for Saratoga 144 would look like.
Note that the Sub tickets are part of a "single miss" approach. The purpose of Sub tickets is to either include marginal longshot contenders leading to higher payoffs.
Sub tickets are also used as a price optimizer involving favorites or to reflect strength of opinion, as regular reader Denny M indicated. [See thread below Saturday blog]
Please note, too, that Sub 4 included #6, Lord Of Love, a John Hertler returnee that was listed at 30-1 on the early line. More on #6 later.
The idea is to stay on the main ticket for as long as possible so that a player would have more combinations alive into the final leg of the sequence.
Anyway, this exercise was requested by the BRIS rep to see whether we were on the same page regarding style, logistical layouts, and the like.
It is extremely rare when I self-promote on this site. But I have a contract with BRIS for the Saratoga meet to provide exclusive P4 reports. The cost is $10 per report--cheaper if you sign for longer periods or make other "package" arrangements.
Man does not live on advertising revenue alone.
After late scratches Saturday, the entire cost was $108 for all five 50-Cent tickets. The play yielded a small profit as the $522 P4 returned $130.50 for 50 Cents.
[Wendell, please don't write that that's akin to betting $100 to win on a 1-5 shot, or thereabouts, I'm well aware of that and this is not the reason bettors jump into sequential pools].
It is important to note here there were suggestions that larger bankrolls would take the main ticket twice [due to the preponderance of favorites]. Also note that smaller bankrolls were instructed to take the main ticket and preferred Sub, which was Sub-1.
The Sub-1 ticket, after scratches, cost $27. That would mean a total investment for smaller bankrolls of $54. The 1-5 "profit" above is now approximately 8-5.
As Denny M noted, he used my horses, optimized on his strong opinion on Shug's horse in the Man o' War, second favorite Point Of Entry, and he made a tidy sum.
This is the part that must be taken on faith: After the scratch of Riverdance Rock in the finale, #1 on the main ticket, I moved Rosie's horse, #4, All Zipped Up, from the Sub list to the main ticket.
Note here that I only suggested using four horses in the last race, and since I know that, by definition, 30-1 shots win about 3 percent of the time, I thought I make a small win bet after seeing #6 in the paddock/post parade, then key him in all money positions with the logical suspects.
Besides, in terms of Main and Sub ticket theory, I liked #6 off last year's turf sprint form and #4 had clearly improved this year since the trainer change to Andrew Lakeman.
Parenthetically, the victory by Lakeman’s horse in the finale might even have been more popular with the New York public than The Chief's upset of last week's Victory Ride.
So, what would this "pricey" information have been worth yesterday? As it turns out, a lot, and the P4 had little to do with it.
If you considered using horses that were included in P4 analysis that appeared in HRI Saturday, you might have cashed other tickets as well:
In the 7th race, the 3-9 Exacta returned $71.50, the 3-9-8 Trifecta $220
In the 8th race, the 3-2 Exacta paid $80.50
In the 9th race, third “main” choice won; bets lost.
In the 10th race, three "main" choices finish first, second and fourth. The Hertler longshot finished third at 21-1.
The 4-7-6-5 Dime Super paid $209.80 per ducat, extremely generous. The “8-5” collected on the P4 was moot; it was a pretty good day.
Bonus: There were none of those pesky IRS forms to fill out, either, WMC.