Friday, June 03, 2016
Tough Late Pick 4 at Belmont; Value Abounds
BELMONT PARK LATE PICK 4 AN ALL-ENTRANTS LOOK JUNE 6, 2016
By John Pricci
Exclusively for 123GAMING.com
Listed by program number with early line odds
RACE 7: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT NY-BREDS 3 & UP 6-1/2 FURLONGS
1-SUMMER BOURBON (15-1)
placed gamely earning good foundation Pricci Energy Rating despite racing greenly but that came vs. four maiden claiming rivals.
2-ARTHUR AVENUE (12-1)
broke poorly and bumped from pole position in heavily backed debut this winter and away since. Michelle Nevin 3-for-7 when adding first Lasix; wakeup potential.
never has taken a backward step on the PER scale, earning excellent figure in winter finale. First-time Catalano, blinkers and Johnny; solid contender.
4-BORN FOR A STORM (10-1)
owns reasonable pedigree top side for debut with dam producing two winners from three foals to race. Training steadily since March for Chad Brown.
showed improved early speed in second start, first at this hybrid trip. Cancel re-rides and McLaughlin 24% efficient second-time Lasix; good value on line.
6-FEAR THAT (20-1)
has trained steadily for debut but is lacking nature and nurture for successful first start.
finished well too late in May 14 BEL debut, earning excellent PER, among field’s best. Hushion 31% effective with second time starters; excellent value at early line odds.
showed brief speed and stopped in turf/racing debut now switches to Dutrow barn that’s 24% turf-to-dirt and 27% with second-time starters. Price shot player.
9-COLD REVENGE (12-1)
has nature and nurture for career debut. Lynch having (profitable) career year and is also profitable with his debut types at this level. Dam’s produced 4 winners from 5 starters, including a stakes winner.
10-BROOKLYN MAJOR (10-1)
has put it together since Lasix added four back. Finished strongly when third in recent BEL debut, earning field’s top PER. Again, more value available on posted early line.
11-COLONEL ANDY (20-1)
dam has produced five winners from six starters but Freud a 10% debut style. Sciacca having profitable 2016 but 0-for-last-24 with debut runners.
12-LEGENDARY HUMOR (50-1)
barn winless in 2016 and gelding by 4% first-out sire.
earned competitive PER when 1-1/4 lengths behind Brooklyn Major in debut. Dilger profitable with second-starters and a profitable and worthy 29% adding blinkers. Loses Rosario to out-of-town assignments.
14-JET BLACK (5-1)
just missed in strongly run mile despite stumbling beginning in BEL debut now turns back with conditioning switching to leading rider J Ortiz; very solid player.
RACE 8 Grade 3 PENNINE RIDGE STAKES 3YO 1-1/8 MILES INNER TURF
1-HAMMERS VISION (8-1)
earned best last-out PER when second over course and distance, albeit on yielding ground. Stakes tested and broke maiden here in debut at 2. Confident placement by Lynch, considering added distance.
2-CAMELOT KITTEN (8-5)
won the G2 American Turf at Churchill last out getting first-time blinkers. Broke maiden this course at 2, all dam’s winners have won on turf. Worthy favorite for Brown/Ramsey/Irad team.
3-KISMET’S HEELS (15-1)
is maiden vs. winners but not disgraced in GP Grade 3 prior to recent roaring-finish placing but losing Castellano in this spot.
is multiple graded stakes money performer including G2 win at Saratoga last summer. Badly out-posted in last two starts, not so here for Todd/Johnny team; major player on competitive Thoro-Graph figure with favorite.
5-HIGHLAND SKY (8-1)
gamely won overnight stakes in Aqueduct finale and was beaten only 4-1/2 in the B Cup Juvenile Turf last year; incremental improvement augurs well developmentally and gets along nicely with Luis Saez; excellent value on early line.
6-DRESSED IN HERMES (10-1)
was out-posted and predictably suffered a wide trip in G2 American Turf; also was competitive in BC Juv Turf and Armstrong profitable on turf and 23% efficient in graded stakes.
7-CALL PROVISION (12-1)
came from far back to break maiden at Big A in April when well meant. Chad profitable with this spacing and J Ortiz on a return call. Price shot potential despite high profile connects.
uncoupled Chad runner won G3 Palm Beach this winter at GP. Mare’s four winners all won on grass but must overcome apparent gate issues.
9-TOUGHEST ‘OMBRE (30-1)
raced evenly in Woodhaven after TAM maiden breaker; must show more.
10-NOBLE QUALITY (12-1)
has improved markedly since adding Lasix two back but gets wide draw and facing much tougher in spot. Competitive T-G figure getting weight break.
RACE 9 CLAIMING 3M & UP 6 FURLONGS
1-STAY TUNED (3-1)
has three exacta finishes from five starts on this track and turn back suits his style, as does switch to leading rider.
1A-STORM PURSUIT (3-1)
cuts the claiming price in half, a 33% scenario for elder Englehart and is profitable going turf to dirt and in LAY 3 scenarios; very solid with T-G figures to overcome wide draw.
2-PERFECT DISCO (12-1)
was a willing wide-trip third after poor start in winter track finale; (4) 1-1-0 here and Gullo profitable this year and with this kind of spacing.
3-GROUND CONTROL (5-2)
was a top figure winner of Big A main finale and Rudy sib is 6-for-15 recently with repeaters; barn has cooled since suspension announced last week. High profile connects but a tough call at short price.
was third in Parx starter allowances last out but that was 18 months ago. Sharp steady recent works for return but barn batting 8% with 90-days+ returnees.
was a willing third in strongly run 6-1/2F vs. better in last. Drops notch switching to L Saez and is 3-for-14 here, 4-for-41 everywhere else. Price shot potential.
6-KOWBOY BOOTS (50-1)
has been beaten 65-1/4 lengths in three most recent starts for trainer enjoying profitable 2016. Ultimate mixed signals and a big reach.
re-claim by Antonucci was one-paced but improved third going mile in Big A one-turner and pics up Gryder. But all recent wins in minors at Finger Lakes.
8-BECAUSE I’M HAPPY (8-1)
exits rapidly run sprint now down two notches for low profile barn profitable with claiming sprinters but winless at Belmont after five tries.
9-COLLIN’S SMILE (4-1)
earned excellent PER when dropped to this level in surface return when dead-heating for place. Picks up Cancel and properly spotted; solid contender.
has improved numbers-wise since March claim by Jacobson and had wide trip with too-late rally in last but loses Ortiz to Stay Tuned.
11-FIRST RANGER (30-1)
has been showing early speed then stopping. Winless in four BEL starts and woeful 1-for-17 at this trip.
RACE 10 CLAIMING 3 & UP 1 MILE WIDENER TURF
second in 2015 G1 Makers Mark, slid abruptly down claiming ladder at GP winning last for $25K. Claimed by very live Gargan connects that jailed him and returns at same level off big-figure winning score. Clearly best form, but curious placement.
1A-HURRY UP ALAN (2-1)
Main Track Only
2-IT MATTERS (30-1)
is winless for two years over either surface now returns vs. tougher off layup; extremely tall order.
3-FINDING CANDY (20-1)
showed improved lick in latest but weakened to third’ Barn’s horses known for turf success performing OK but unlucky this meet. Rosario elsewhere so gets L Saez. Wakeup price potential.
is 0-for-11 on turf and 1-for-30 overall, often beaten at huge odds.
5-MC ILROY (6-1)
earned excellent PER when third on turf here in 2015 three back now drops to proper level in season’s debut picking up Irad for live connects; a player here.
6-DREAM MAN (10-1)
veteran won last turf start here in 2015 and Hennig barn having strong meet. Beaten 2 lengths after trailing in AQU finale and profitable turf/barn rider Alvarado sticks. Value at early line odds.
7-MARRIAGE FEVER (20-1)
gets fairly close then fails to seal the deal. Turns back to one-turn mile after mid-moving in MTH two-turner recently. Likely to improve some.
8-MR. CANADA (15-1)
always a pace player and will be on the engine but must contend with favorite’s speed. Gryder re-rides runner 2-for-6 on turf and 1-for-11 on anything else.
9-HIDDEN VOW (15-1)
Serpe horses going well here thus far and freshened to return to BEL turf (13) 3-2-1 after posting 0-for-25 record elsewhere. Picks up strong-finish Arroyo; appears live price shot.
10-COMPLIANCE OFFICER (8-1)
10YO pro has won eight races on this course and hails from good turf connects but likely to need a run coming off the bench at his age despite sharp recent work.
11-ALL OVER ME (5-1)
gelded 5YO has come into his own on turf for Maker who is very worthy 41% profitable with claiming repeaters. Proper spacing and 2-for-5 at the trip.
earned excellent PER score here last fall returning fresh and repeats that pattern for Mott having tough meet but capable with layups. Reunites with winning rider Johnny with sharp recent blowout.
13AE-LIVE IN JOY (10-1)
overmatched in first start off claim over BEL turf May 20 now returns to sensible level for Klesaris, 22% effective with his second chance runners. Switch to L Saez augurs well.
14-CITY STEEL (9-5)
Main Track Only
15-EASY COMPARISON (6-1)
Main Track Only
See tomorrow's Feature Race Analysis for On the Record selections, brought to you by http://www.123BET.com
Written by John Pricci
Tuesday, May 31, 2016
Belmont Stakes Pace Will Take Care of Itself
HALLANDALE BEACH, FL., May 31, 2016—As of this posting, 11 days remain until the running of the Belmont Stakes and already much has been made of the lack of pace in the event. Turf writers are writing about and trainers are talking about it.
What to do?
I have a suggestion that perhaps we should all calm down just a tad. No, there are no lead-to-lead types in this year’s race like there were in the Preakness, but that doesn’t guarantee a lack of pace. Let’s consider this question.
Is a half-mile in 48 seconds flat too fast or two slow for three-race-olds racing a mile and a half in early-to-mid June? In our opinion, that would be perfect to insure an honest, competitive race.
There are mitigating factors, of course, atmospherics and track condition to name two but a half-mile in 48 is the perfect 12-clip around which the racing and training game is built.
But if that seems slow, consider this. If one strings 12-clips together for the entire trip, the result is Secretariat’s 2:24 track and trip record.
The problem with sustaining the benchmark of 12 seconds per furlong is that t this rate, the runnerup would find himself 31 fence-post notches in arrears.
Among the nine possible/probable starters in this year’s event being considered at the moment, almost half of them are capable of a half-mile in 48. The problem, of course, is holding that momentum all the way home.
There are some very nice horses in this year’s renewal but none ever will be confused with Big Red of Meadow Stable, albeit Stradavari and Suddenbreakingnews both start with an ‘S’.
Speaking of the former, it must be noted that the lack of need-the-lead runners did lead to Stradavari’s name being added to the Belmont list. Among his other talents, Todd Pletcher can read a form.
Pletcher may have issues with his Derby and Preakness results but need not apologize for winning two Belmonts, one with a filly and the other getting a Derby runoff named Palace Malice to go a mile and a half after removing blinkers.
Pletcher will throw a pair of ‘cheaters’ on the son of Medaglia d’Oro or maybe he won’t. Maybe his other slated entrant, Destin, will set the pace. Either one is capable of striding away comfortably in front.
Stradavari, in fact, was wide and rank chasing a hot pace in Baltimore, Johnny Velazquez alternately trying to get the long striding colt to settle while trying to pressure those that would keep the pressure on Nyquist.
Note, too, that in his allowance win prior to the Preakness, he say a length off of a 47 2/5 half mile before winning by 14 eagle-spreading lengths in 1:48 3/5 which is, of course, 3/5s of a second short of a perfect 12-clip.
Well, as above, he does have a name that starts with an ‘S’.
However, stablemate Destin was a half-length off the Tampa Derby pace before completing a mile and a sixteenth in very crisp 1:42 4/5. And lest we forget he finished ahead of 14 Derby rivals in a troubled journey that began at the starting gate.
If, however, neither tack is in the offing, there is another contender that not only can set and 12-clippish pace and hold that margin to the finish, and that would be from-the-clouds Derby runnerup and Preakness hero Exaggerator.
Jogging memory, he did win the Delta Jackpot in near wire fashion at 2 then next time sat right on Nyquist’s hip in the 7-furlong San Vicente, chasing splits of 22 2/5 and 44 2/5 through six furlongs in 1:08 2/5 finishing 1-1/2 lengths behind the champ’s 1:20 3/5 at the finish.
And, as Kent Desormeaux reminded a national television audience in Baltimore, knowledge is power, indeed. The Belmont is the quintessential “rider’s race.” Not to worry, this group will figure it all out.
JUST WHAT WE ALL WANTED…
Good to see that Nyquist
is recovering nicely and will return to SoCal June 5. Providing Exaggerator
runs well the following weekend and recovers nicely, it will be good to see them hook up again now that it’s real rivalry; 4-0 did not a rivalry make… Reports are that Dale Romans
’ tandem of Cherry Wine
and Brody’s Cause
seem spot on. Having Cherry Wine work a half mile, galloping out five-eighths in 1:03 obviously speaks to his condition. And while we didn’t see it, Brody’s Cause appears to have worked like a monster. A stamina-inducing mile in 1:42, galloping out nine furlongs in 1:56 2/5 looks like a perfect move…
, a roughed-up 13th in the Derby, also had what appears a beneficial trial. Beneath Florent Geroux
, he worked five furlongs in 1:02, galloping out six furlongs in 1:15 with a double gallop-out in 1:28 4/5 for seven-eighths. Irad Ortiz Jr
. rides him in the Belmont… Suddenbreakingnews
worked six furlongs at his Churchill base Sunday in 1:12 2/5 and galloped out “really strong” according to trainer Donnie Von Hemel
, who has booked Mike Smith
for the Belmont.
Written by John Pricci
Friday, May 27, 2016
Thumbnails on All Entrants in Belmont’s All-Turf Pick 4 Saturday
LATE PICK 4 BREAKDOWN at BELMONT PARK for May 28, 2016
Exclusively for 123GAMING at http://www.123BET.com
Listed in post-position order by program number
RACE 7: ALLOWANCES 3 & UP 1-1/16 MILES INNER TURF
1-Easy Comparison (30-1) has early speed but is winless in four turf starts and only one of 4 siblings have won on turf. Trainer 0-for last 60 starts on grass.
2-Performance Bonus (6-1) won recent two-turn debut for Chad in Parx off-the-turfer. Of dam’s 7 winners to race, only one grass winner. Trainer 30% profitable FT turf; mixed signals.
3-Harpoon (12-1) is 1-for-11 on grass, owns a few competitive Pricci Energy Rating and Bruce Brown can get them ready off lengthy layoffs but barn having tough luck at meet (26) 0-3-7 through Wednesday.
4-Captain Moss (10-1) is 2-for-2 on Belmont turf 1-for-12 doing anything else and earned competitive PER last out for Englehart, 25% with repeaters. Tough dynamics for likely stalker. (continued)
5-Hello Don Julio (3-1) could not handle yielding ground in course debut after chasing pace in 12-furlong Grade 2 prior at GP. Will have no excuses here for Dilger, profitable with allowance routers.
6-Circus Performer (7-2) had improved early speed for Todd in KEE finale last out at 1-1/2 miles. Conditioning edge on these turning-back and reunites with winning pilot Rosario here.
7-Tale of Fancy (4-1) racing in career form for Tagg, has earned good PERs in 2 of last 3, handles any type of ground And Reunites with winning partner Jose Ortiz; 2-for-5 at this trip, 0-for-6 all others.
8-Mark My Style (5-1) earned top Rating winning his last, has won this course and distance, fits race dynamics nicely for Toscano, profitable with repeaters and second-off-layup types. Luis Saez re-rides.
9-Mobridge (15-1) is not impossible despite 17-month absence with Mott calling shots and winning rider Alvarado aloft. Owns 3-for-11 lifetime slate with all wins this course/distance.
RACE 8: PARADISE CREEK STAKES 3YO 7 FURLONGS WIDENER TURF
1-Conquest See Ya (2-1) was well back to win course and turf debut, flashing much improved speed to hold off recent repeater Drop Shot. Getting six pounds, nicely positioned and Lezcano on return call for live Casse shed.
2-Wicked Wink (10-1) raced very wide in latest sloppy track mile, his U.S. debut. Lacks turf experience and both mare’s foals winless on grass. But Albertrani is 19% profitable turf to dirt and Javier sticks. Head-scratcher.
3-El Charro (7-5) Main Track Only
4-Rappel (6-1) has excellent PERs, owns stakes experience, reunites with winning rider Franco and goes first Lasix for Ribaudo, a profitable 27% efficient this year. Turnback into sprint suits; value on early line.
5-Too Discreet (4-1) is a talented New York-bred turfer that has run well in three lifetime starts, including two stakes, for Clement. Too fresh early in 2016 debut going longer now turns back with tactical speed and sprint kick reuniting with winning partner Rosario.
6-John Q. Public (12-1) may be the speed of the speed and has shown some improvement since entering Wilkes barn four back. Worked bullet for this and switches to aggressive turf ace Carmouche.
7-Condo King (8-5) Main Track Only
8-Mighty Mo (8-5) In-form Pletcher entrant just missed in the Woodhaven, an Aqueduct two-turner, earning excellent figure. Lightly raced, turf meant and gets switch to Johnny; deserving favorite.
RACE 9: ALLOWANCES 3 & UP 6 FURLONGS INNER TURF
2-Royal Asset (3-1) was willing third in well-back debut on turf at this trip despite gate issues then won two straight on dirt vs state-breds, earning excellent PERs. Out-posted when wide trip victim in 3YO finale. Maturity angle here; Ward 23% profitable with 90-days+ layups, sharp works at KEE base, and Rosario on the re-ride.
3-C’mon Boys (30-1) has run competitively going longer in all firm-turf starts but one and Goldberg profitable with 90-days+ layups and with shippers. Switch to Lezcano augurs well; live price shot potential.
4-Sunny Puzzle (7-2) Main Track Only
5-Rootformejustin (6-1) earned lifetime best PER in fast sprint this course and distance as 2015 3YO. Terranova 15% profitable with long layups. From good producer, including turf, and reunites with winning partner Cancel for 4YO debut. Right style and position.
6-Lord of Love (4-1) was a top-figure PER third in recent return from freshening on yielding ground at 7F and won at this distance last year. Owns 2-for-6 slate on turf at the trip and is 1-for-29 doing anything else. Switches back to Irad.
7-Disco Partner (7-2) earns top PERs with consistency and is 2 of 3 lifetime wins have come on this ground. Purposeful, steady works since early April for return and both prior wins came beneath jockey Alvarado.
1-Dominic’s Smile (6-1) gelding makes belated 4YO debut in second start for Klesaris, a 22% scenario. Won all three starts at this trip on turf, albeit vs. claimers. Leading rider Jose Ortiz, profitable with all turf runners, takes the call. Apparently live here.
8-Sanctify (10-1) has been in-and-out but 2 of 3 career wins have come on grass, including one on this course at distance. Returns fresh for Mott capable with layups and has been working very well this this since mid-April. Gets Saez; value at early line odds.
9-River Dancer (30-1) is 1-for-1 this course and distance but lacks figures to compete effectively here.
1A-Three For Me (6-1) loves turf (13) 5-2-1 including 2 over this ground for Klesaris, profitable with his grass runners. Makes second start off the layup and reunites with winning rider Castellano.
10-The Greatwhiteway (8-1) Main Track Only
11-Canadian Flyer (8-1) earned top turf figure when third in 3YO finale and had very rough trip in season’s debut Feb 14 at GP [see replay]. Uncoupled Mott reuniting with winning rider Velazquez with strong recent works; value at early line odds.
RACE 10: MAIDEN CLAIMING F&M 3 & UP 1-1/16 MILES WIDENER TURF
1-Skillman Avenue (6-1) was a decent one-paced, well meant fifth in sloppy off-turfer in recent debut despite troubled start now tries first for Schettino, profitable with second-time starters and turf debut types; attracts Lezcano.
2-Three Eighty Eight (4-1) placed gamely in turf and racing debut despite troubled start and racing wide into stretch, earning competitive PER; sharp work for return and Saez sticks.
3-Bareeqa (8-1) had two trips in two turf starts to begin career now tries claimers for first time on that surface following series of show finishes on dirt. Bruce Brown generally underrated on turf and gets first-time Rosario.
4-Jennifer’s Legacy (10-1) showed improvement in second start going first-time long in off-turner at this trip and of dam’s 3 winners to race, one won on grass. Ryerson having tough-luck meet.
5-Sophia’s Choice (3-1) earned good figures on this course last year given similar dynamics now drops in with claimer for the first time for Carlos Martin, enjoyable a profitable 2016 and Jose Ortiz sticks after showing early speed and finishing last of 12 in return. Turf bred both sides; improvement expected.
6-Love Blues (5-1) earned competitive PER in turf and route debut on Big A grass for Schettino, also enjoying profitable year, but loses Ortiz to Sophia’s Choice.
7-Seek Praise (50-1) showed very little in two starts and not particularly turf meant; makes second start since claimed from debut.
8-Itsthemoney (15-1) moved forward in second start, both on turf, at GP now ships in for Antonucci, profitable in 2016. Taking confident class hike in first go with New York-breds; wakeup potential at a price.
9-That Warrior Girl (50-1) hasn’t hit the board in 15 starts vs. weaker on either surface.
10-Forma’s Joy (15-1) drops in with claimers for the first time in second start for Steven Jerkens. Has back figures that more than compete with this group. More wakeup potential.
11-She’s All Love (6-1) showed much improvement when narrowly beaten vs slower group but in open company while making turf and distance debut at Laurel. Ships in for state-bred debut for Wooley, enjoying profitable 2016 with limited starters and 2-for-3 with second-time turf runners. Properly spotted.
12-Baronet (15-1) Coach Henning’s filly takes confident class rise for Sciacca who specializes with price shots on turf, profitable in FT grass scenarios. Franco on the re-ride but dam’s three foals winless thus far. Mixed signals.
13ae-Pegasus Storm (50-1) has yet to be close and at long odds.
14ae-Grey En Blue (20-1) has not had easy trip in any of three lifetime starts, including recent 3YO debut in which she was out-posted sprinting. Contessa is better in LAY-2 scenarios and reaches out for first-time Javier here. Ignore at your peril.
15ae-Justenufflaughter (20-1) raced wide throughout last after earning competitive PER in Big A turf finale when entered for a price for the first time. Likes this course, reunites with Luzzi but has had 17 chances to find the circle.
16ae-Mizzentop (30-1) is working unspectacularly for debut but barn is first rate state-bred nursery known to pop with occasional FTS at a price. Owns enough viable grass pedigree; price shot if able to draw in.
See Saturday's Feature Race Analysis for On-the-Record Selections
Written by John Pricci