Friday, March 28, 2014
Florida Derby 2014: More Than a Great Betting Race
For all the Florida-based three year olds, it's come down to today's Grade 1 Florida Derby featuring the deepest field of talented sophomores assembled this year. Indeed, only eight were entered and that's because the Big Four chased some of them out of town.
I'm still clinging to the notion that, of the top four contenders, Cairo Prince is the "best horse." But before I know that for sure, I need to see him win one more against this type of competition--off an eight week layup. The competition was earning its laurels, not resting on them.
We're taking General A Rod because the last time he raced, he was meeting a bulldog of a speed horse on a speed-favoring surface, that's why Javier Castellano put him in the game so early. Castellano rides the undefeated Constitution, the summize being that's he's riding for the trainer as much as he chose to ride the horse, having previously committed.
Joel Rosario is more than an able substitute, just as Johnny Velazquez need not play second fiddle to anymore and he takes the mount on Wildcat Red. The speed of the speed, the rail, Johnny and Gulfstream Park--they are going to take plenty of beating.
But we like the way Michael Maker has handled 'A Rod", today very much looking like a coming out party. And of the big four, we're of the opinion that his pedigree is most likely to win out at today's 9 furlongs and beyond.
Racing fans such as myself need not make a wager to enjoy this one, but I will be betting just the same--with both hands.
We're taking the opportunity provided by the Florida Derby to debut an example of what The Pricci Data Bank might look like when it's published sometime in the near future. In addition to an Energy Distribution projection, a performance figure that each horse in a race could earn--the higher the figure, the better--a letter grade that reflects variables to include a race shape-post position summary, jockey and trainer profile, workout analysis, and a surface-distance suitability report.
See Saturday's Feature Race Analysis for the Data Bank projections and letter grades and the usual betting strategy for the centerpiece of the Gulfstream championship meet
Written by John Pricci
Monday, March 24, 2014
Turfway, Sunland Make Litttle Impact on HRI Power 10
HALLANDALE BEACH, FL., March 23, 2014—The positioning in advance of Saturday’s entrance into the final round of playoffs for the big dance is over now that Saturday’s Spriral Stakes and Sunday’s Sunland Derby is in the books.
Wish I knew what to make of Turfway Park’s Polytrack bonanza. We Miss Artie picked up all the pieces with Johnny Velazquez, timing the last run exquisitely. The runnerup did most of the hard work chasing throughout, staying very well before getting tagged right at the wire.
Show finisher Coastline looked the part of a winner every step of the last half-mile of the 9 furlongs, sitting perfectly from close range outside, having things unfold for his benefit but disappointingly did not kick on to win, hanging badly through the final furlong.
The winner should have little difficulty getting 10 furlongs in six weeks but his problem is two-fold: can he get there fast enough on a dirt surface. And, thus far, he hasn’t been the same horse on anything other than grass or all-weather surfaces.
It’s easier to get a read on the Sunday’s Sunland Derby on dirt, and the 9-furlong time of 1:47.88 was two-fifths of a second off the track record. It was won on the pace by the speedy, classy stalker Chitu, who outlasted stablemate Midnight Hawk.
There’s a two-fold problem here as well: speed was deadly at Sunland on Sunday and his stablemate simply doesn’t finish what he starts in two-turn events. The surface carried Chitu home with Martin Garcia asking him for his life in the final furlong.
What the Kentucky Derby’s race shape doesn’t need at this point is another serious horse that races on or near the early lead. Of course, if the closer’s aren’t fast enough…
As a result, there wasn’t much shake-up in the HRI Power 10 this week except that California-based three-year-olds occupy three of the top five slots.
By Saturday nigh, however, we figure to be looking at a whole different ballgame. Finally, we’re approaching to the races that truly matter.
There certainly will be changes next week as half of the Power 10 is very likely to see action including Cairo Prince who has dominated the top position since the poll was first conducted five weeks ago.
Cairo Prince will almost certainly stamp himself the Derby favorite with a victory in Saturday’s Florida Derby, a position that only would be strengthened should Intense Holiday add the Louisiana Derby to his Risen Star triumph.
As colleague Tom Jicha noted last week, the 2014 sophomore class is still seeking a horse capable of stringing together back-to-back graded stakes; thus far there have been 17 graded events each boasting a different hero.
The HRI Kentucky Derby Power 10, Week 5
1. Cairo Prince (36)
2. Candy Boy (26)
3. Tapiture (22)
4. (tie) California Chrome (18)
4. (tie) Hoppertunity (18)
6. Intense Holiday (12)
7. Wildcat Red (10)
8. Samraat (8)
9. General A Rod (7)
10. Strong Mandate (5)
The HRI Power 10 is a consensus of HRI staffers and contributors, written by John Pricci
Written by John Pricci
Sunday, March 16, 2014
With a Rebel Yell, a Shift in the Derby Power 10
HALLANDALE BEACH, FL., March 15, 2014—The running of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes Saturday at Oaklawn Park wasn’t exactly what you would call a wild west rodeo, but it was pretty damn close.
The Oaklawn stewards got it right when they did not alter the first two placings in which Hoppertunity outfought Tapiture for a narrow, hard earned win.
The Rebel performances by both horses were highly creditable, each proving that he rates among the elite three year olds of 2014. Tapiture, highly rated in most polls going in, lost the photo but little of his stature.
In the race, Strong Mandate, the eventual fourth place finisher who figured to show more speed than he did in the Southwest, did so. Ride On Curlin, who had the worst of the Southwest wide trips, was committed to the pace after breaking sharply from an inside post.
While those two tested each other up front in cat-and-mouse style, Hoppertunity was sitting in perfect stalking position outside. His trip turned out to be the difference in the final result.
Meanwhile, sitting inside and near the fence, Ricardo Santana Jr., was loaded, waiting for time and opportunity to strike with Tapiture. That chance never came, so Santana made his own opportunity, coming out from behind horses trying to find running room.
What he did was understandable, but bumping a rival out of the way is not allowed. If you're in a jackpot, you're supposed to await a seam to open. But Tapiture got through and began his surge,
Hoppertunity proved a half-length the better horse. Strong Mandate was still hanging in between rivals, trying to re-rally as Hoppertunity continued to grind his way down the center of the wet-fast strip. It was a very dramatic finish, but one that left a bit of a sour taste.
First, one can only suppose what would have happened under dry conditions. That's the trouble with wet tracks; the results come with excuses built in.There was all that bumping going on but the first two finishers did prove they could handle a head to head fight.
What was hard to believe was that not only did Ride On Curlin not hold his ground, coming out to bump Strong Mandate, but under continued left-hand whipping by Kent Desormeaux, started a chain reaction that put Tapiture in very tight quarters, who by this time had secured room to run, but Hoppertunity was bothered, too, albeit to a lesser degree since he was outside.
Not taking punitive action against the first two finishers was the right thing to do. It was rough, but both horses had their chance to win and Hoppertunity was better on the day.
But I don’t understand how Ride On Curlin was not placed behind Strong Mandate.
Trying zealously to win is understandable. But horses are supposed to maintain a straight course. If they don’t, it’s on the rider to help the horse to do so.
Desormeaux never stopped whipping and driving while his mount continued to bear out; it was textbook careless riding.
The victory by Hoppertunity earned him 50 Derby qualifying points, punching his card to the big dance and giving trainer Bob Baffert a record fourth Rebel victory.
The win also strengthened Intense Holiday’s status, since he beat Hoppertunity at the Fair Grounds, and Cairo Prince’s, for defeating Intense Holiday at Gulfstream Park.
Resultantly, there were many shakeups in the Power 10. Honor Code dropped several slots with his second place finish in his season’s debut Wednesday, and Hoppertunity jumped from relative obscurity squarely into the middle of the Derby picture.
Suddenly Southern California-based sophomores occupy three of the top five slots—this week, anyway--and there were two dead heats among HRI’s top 11 Derby candidates..
Sitting on the sidelines had its usual effect, rewarding some while seldom diminishing the status of others. It’s how sports polls usually work: Nothing ventured, something gained.
HRI KENTUCKY DERBY POWER 10, Week 4:
1. Cairo Prince (36)
2. California Chrome (26)
3. Candy Boy (24)
4-tie Hoppertunity (19)
4-tie Intense Holiday (19)
6. Tapiture (18)
7. Samraat (12)
8. Honor Code (10)
9. Wildcat Red (9)
10-tie General A Rod (8)
10-tie Strong Mandate (8)
Written by John Pricci