John Pricci

HorseRaceInsider.com executive editor John Pricci has over three decades of experience as a thoroughbred racing public handicapper and was an award-winning journalist while at New York Newsday for 18 years.

John has covered 14 Kentucky Derbies and Preaknesses, all but three Breeders' Cups since its inception in 1984, and has seen all but two Belmont Stakes live since 1969.

Currently John is a contributing racing writer to MSNBC.com, an analyst on the Capital Off-Track Betting television network, and co-hosts numerous handicapping seminars. He resides in Saratoga Springs, New York.

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Tuesday, January 22, 2019


Great Draw for Both Pegasus World Cup Favorites


January 22, 2019--With two pills left to draw, the #3 and #12 slips were still open. And which one would City of Light, Breeders’ Cup Mile winner and only horse to defeat Horse of the Year finalist Accelerate this year, leave from?

Sighs of relief came not only from the connections of City of Light, who drew #3, leaving #12 to speedy Cigar Mile winner Pattern Recognition, but from Gulfstream management who won’t have to deal with post position queries this time around.

Further, the draw sets up a dramatic race throughout as the favorites will be on or need the pace throughout, certainly in close proximity to each other. Both Breeders’ Cup winners have won sitting off fast-early rivals.

The first two editions of the Pegasus World Cup may have had more glittering star power going in, but this edition is a much more interesting event and compelling betting race.

Yoshida, a Grade 1 winner on dirt and turf, of course, drew post #2 and was installed the 5-2 choice for the inaugural running of the Pegasus World Turf. Drawn to his inside is the uber-talented European filly, Magic Wand, a 9-2 choice for trainer Aidan O’Brien.


OAKLAWN OPENER: In case you hadn’t noticed, the Smarty Jones was not run on Martin Luther King Day because with the Oaklawn meeting ending later this year—Kentucky Derby day—the lid-lifter was pushed back to this coming Friday.

The 2019 Smarty Jones has been drawn and attracted a field of nine, including an uncoupled trio from Steve Asmussen, with Springboard Mile winner Long Range Toddy and tough–trip Springboard runnerup Bankit, an accomplished New York-bred, topping the list.

Like the Springboard, the Smarty Jones is a two-turn mile and all top contenders are working well. ‘Toddy’ benefits from his tactical speed and pole position while Bankit will appreciate the pace plethora up front. Larry Jones will saddle the talented, fast working Super Steed, his two-turn debut. Gray Attempt is the 5-2 ML favorite from post #8. [See Friday’s FRA for betting strategy].


SUPER MANIA: As the HRI Faithful are painfully aware, my unofficial wedding anniversary is Super Sunday each year as Toni and I were married a half century ago, the same day a quarterback named Joe Willie made good on a promise.

First up, a tip of the cap to HRI’s sports maven Marc Lawrence, who provides the best upset picks from his popular Playbook newsletter and who has had a good playoffs run, predicting Sunday that the underdog Rams would win the NFC Championship on the field.

An aside: Given the crossover between horse racing and sports these days, Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman posed a question on Twitter Monday, stating simply “Del Mar stewards or NFL refs: Discuss.”

A temporary shut-in these days, I have watched more live sports than usual of late, including the NFL playoffs, and Sunday’s games were very entertaining, especially the nightcap.

As a native New Yorker, I am obliged to hate the Patriots—you know, the “cheating” coach and QB. However, politics and provincialism notwithstanding, the Killer Bs [including Bronk--not the horse] are awesome, the best trio I have ever seen. And I’m not alone.

For the uninitiated, a few sports books open football betting to a select few wiseguys who wager into the opening line and, depending on which way the smart money goes, a public betting line goes out to the gamblers.

Well, between wiseguys and the fans, the Rams went from 1-point favorites to 2-point underdogs by early Monday.

Last year, over $158 billion was bet on the Super Bowl, about $5 billion of that in Las Vegas. Helped by silly prop bets on such things as the coin toss or duration of the national anthem, online bet-takers handle the bulk of the action these days.

Interesting to note, especially for Stronach Group watchers, that there is a bet drag on the Super Bowl every year, almost all the money bet in the last two days of the fortnight leading up to the big game.

In addition to some key propositions, bettors love Futures action. How about this, then? Before the first snap from center this year, the Patriots were 5-1 favorites to win the Super Bowl. But before the Playoffs began, the Rams were 5-1 to win it all. Go figure.

By the way, for those who believe SB 53 will be a high-scoring affair, the opening Over/Under is 58.

Written by John Pricci

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Tuesday, December 04, 2018


Sports Betting Slowly Taking Root, Creating Strange New Bedfellows


HALLANDALE BEACH, Dec. 4--Several months ago, when HRI staffer Tom Jicha wrote that legal sports betting may not be the portal to free purse money for horse racing stakeholders think it can be, I thought his take was a bit premature, a tad alarmist.

It turns out that Jicha may have been prescient. He thought it through and posited that sports fans—especially those who like to mix a little action in with their game watching—would never consider betting on a horse race not named Kentucky Derby.

Coincidentally, at the time TJ was making his observation, I was roiling against last-flash odds changes made possible by computer-aided syndicates who make large last-minute arbitrage wagers that render the concept of “value bets” moot.

This environment, coupled with the burgeoning number of 30% super trainers working on virtually every circuit, has me whispering to friends and associates that if I were 30 years younger I might walk away from a game I’ve been passionate about for a half-century.

It would not be because I’ve lost my interest in the sport, just the day-to-day wagering, becoming a Saturday-only warrior for real. I love the track and backside environments, the majestic animals and racetrack lifers too much. My hunger for that will never change.


This revelation was brought home after I read recent statements on sports betting from league officials and bet-takers. According to British bookmakers, e.g., more bets occur during games than before it. FanDuel reports that in-game bets comprise 40% of their sports handle. Gamblers appetites for games requiring intellect have changed.

Concurrently, an NBA vice president tasked with fantasy and gaming confirmed his league has partnered with a sports data company hoping to turn statistical data into attractive wagering fodder, the way NFL stats turned Super Bowl prop bets into a huge revenue stream for bet-takers.

Sports league data partnerships are going to be providing bettors with reliable information they can gamble on. Said one: “[What the NBA gets in working with us [is the ability] to add a whole product layer that turns real-time data into an in-game [betting] product.”

Last week, Major League Baseball made MGM its “official” gaming and entertainment partner, a template created by deals already struck with the National Basketball Association and National Hockey League. All stakeholders share the proceeds: Bet-takers, leagues, athletes and the states.

The National Football League hypocritically maintains its opposition to the concept of legal sports betting. But now that it’s legal, they want federal legislation to address their concerns.

Interestingly, while the league has no direct investment in the fantasy sports space, 28 of its 32 teams are involved in sponsorship agreements. Wink, wink; nod, nod.

The NFL did, however, give the Oakland Raiders permission to move to Las Vegas, a town that takes in about $150 million annually from bets on “the big game.” And, unlike MLB and the NBA, they have not advocated for integrity fees--more hypocritical behavior.

While the public ban on sports betting was struck down by the Supreme Court this year, sports gambling is legal in only eight states, fewer operationally.

Pennsylvania comes on line early next year and while the measure is legal in New York, the official sign will go unlit until they figure out how to slice up the pie. Further, the betting action is currently limited to four commercial casino operators.

In Florida, of all places, a legal sports betting amendment was rejected by the voters at Midterms.

With statistical data that figures to be more reliably comprehensive than the information doled out to horseplayers, sports bettors will have what they need for intelligent in-game betting, prop wagering but, most critically, will wager at fixed odds. Sports bettors will know the precise ration of risk to reward.

Regarding sports betting conflicts of interest are, every sports betting scandal has been discovered and revealed by bet-takers. They are the first to recognize unusual betting patterns and are quick to alert the appropriate authorities.

While underlying drug issues also are a concern in sports, complaints are nowhere nearly as commonplace as concerns about horse racing’s lack of transparency and uniformity with respect to rules, regulations and adjudication--the heart and soul of integrity issues.

With the NFL season at full speed, Meadowlands/Fan Duel took in $2.4 million in sports wagers in October; Monmouth Park/William Hill booked a tad over $600,000. And those numbers figure to improve in November and December as racing interest slows to a crawl.

Unlike horse racing, sports stadiums don’t have animal rights activists lined up at their entrances, which was the case for Saturday’s high profile Gulfstream Park opener. Said TJ, after seeing the barbarians at the gate:

“They got the circus and they got the dogs; now they’re coming after us.”

Upgrade, Downgrade, All Around the Tracks

The American Graded Stakes Committee did its annual thing last week and, on balance, I can’t take too much exception to what they’ve done, even if some of the downgrades did take the wind out of some major sails.

Belmont Park’s Beldame is no longer a championship defining Grade 1 event. Neither is Churchill’s Stephen Foster, Los Alamitos’ Cash Call Futurity, or three former Grade 1s from Santa Anita; the Santa Margarita, Triple Bend and Zenyatta.

Not all downgrades can be blamed on post-apocalyptic Breeders’ Cup Prep Syndrome. The quality of competition and fewer number of competitors have helped make the downgrades justifiable--that and subsequent poor subsequent performances, of course.

Three races that proved a harbinger for future excellence were, notably, all sprints. The grassy Jaipur, the Woody Stephens, and the Churchill Downs Stakes, also at seven furlongs, have been upgraded to Grade 1 status.

Continuing this sprint trend for 2019; the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint, Twin Spires Turf Sprint, the Gallant Bob, the Eddie D and the Amsterdam Stakes were all elevated to Grade 2.

Given the turf and sprint trends that the Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders Association has acknowledged going into 2019 and beyond, an Eclipse Award honoring these specialists may be an idea whose time has come.

Written by John Pricci

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Thursday, November 29, 2018


Saratoga Meet May Be Extended in 2019


Plantation, FL, NOV. 29, 2018--Pending the results of a committee hearing and subsequent NYRA Board approval, the 2019 Saratoga race meet will open July 11* and run through Labor Day, with Mondays and Tuesdays dark.

As a result, the current 40-day racing schedule would be maintained.

HRI did not receive confirmation on the story from a NYRA spokesperson when asked to comment on Wednesday.

This development was posted first at http://www.wnyt.com, the web address of NBC-affiliated Channel 13, which broadcasts throughout New York's Capital District.

A Tweet from CH-13 sports anchor Chris Onorato earlier cited multiple insider sources.

Stay tuned...

*correction made 112918

For Latest on Saratoga extension, see Comment #17 below the original post


Written by John Pricci

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