Saturday, February 28, 2009
Fountain of Youth Wide Open; Sham Not So Much
Saratoga Springs, NY, February 27, 2009--Two significant Kentucky Derby preps today, one with major implications, as the road to Louisville begins to heat up with the calendar rapidly approaching March.
The Grade 2 Fountain of Youth, while a one turn mile, remains meaningful, such is the talent level among the dozen entrants that will spring from the Gulfstream Park gate down the chute for that long backstretch run.
Santa Anita offers the G3 Sham Stakes at nine furlongs. What the two turner provides in race dynamics it lacks in major faces. So if neither race excites, not to worry. Next week the scores can really change.
Next Saturday’s Gotham will provide serious clues regarding how a pair of brilliant speedsters, Haynesfield and Mr. Fantasy, can stand a significant class rise and quality pace pressure.
The Gotham will also show if the talented, lightly seasoned Imperial Council is as good as the hype. And we’ll see just how the solid Left Coaster, I Want Revenge, handles real dirt in his debut over Aqueduct’s winter-track surface.
There’s significantly more brilliance (read ability) in the Fountain of Youth than will be on display in the Sham. A lot more.
Such are the lofty Equiform performance figures earned by two of the Fountain’s dozen, Notonthesamepage and This Ones For Phil, final numbers of 80.25 and 81, respectively. That kind of gas would win most Breeders’ Cup Sprints, and it’s only February.
How those sprint figures translate to eight furlongs is the question. But brilliance, especially that kind of zip, must be highly respected. At 4-1 and 3-1, respectively, they are the early line choices for what has been a traditional stepping stone to the Florida Derby.
If only strict adherence to performance figures made things easy. If my life depended on it, I’d look to handicap a walkover. And this is far from a walkover as you can get. For my life it would be This Ones For Phil, and not just because he’s “fastest.”
The facts are that he’s handled pace pressure before, unlike many of today’s rivals, and is proven at the distance. [And trainer Rick Dutrow does well from outside posts in three year old stakes at Gulfstream, if you recall].
In this case, an outside position is an advantage. With all the speed inside, Edgar Prado can read and react; sit off a suicidal pace or put pressure on a soft one. Is the colt set up for a regression? If he doesn’t bounce, he’s Secretariat. Still, he’s the most likely winner. And a bad bet.
The problem is knowing where to go. While ‘Phil’ must be included in the wagering mix, at least defensively, bettors must lose the second choice to secure value. If you’re right about ‘Phil,’ you must beat Notonthesamepage, hoping the other speeds run him into the ground.
Capt. Candyman Can is right behind the two favorites on performance figures, has the right running style, a great post, and the strong finishing Julien Leparoux. He’s a very logical alternative, But Ian Wilkes is a Carl Nafzger protégé.
As such, Wilkes doesn’t want another peak performance in a one turn race. If the goal is Louisville, he runs evenly here, moves forward in the Florida Derby, and peaks in Kentucky. Or the other way around.
It’s unfortunate that guessing is a prescription for parimutuel disaster.
There are three interesting price horses in the Fountain of Youth: Theregoesjojo (15-1), Break Water Edison (15-1) and Quality Road (8-1).
‘Jojo’ looked like Cujo coming down the stretch winning his Gulfstream debut, his first race since July’s Bashford Manor. Trainer Ken McPeek, 32 percent at the meet, is good with stretch-outs, his colt’s distance pedigree is there and Kent Desormeaux is three for his last five rides for the outfit. The inside post can be a blessing or curse, depending on the break. Jojo’s developing very nicely.
Taking Break Water Edison would an act of faith. He hates racing inside and drew the rail in his Hutcheson debut. He was so bad that you wonder how much he got out of it. Trainer John Kimmel adds blinkers, the colt moves outside, stretches to his best distance, and ran fast enough at two to compete here. But that last race..?
Quality Road is a huge talent. A poor start compromised him when beaten by ‘Jojo’ in his first start this year. Following his good placing, he’s worked five times--25 furlongs in 28 days--and his recent five furlongs of :58.4 was the fastest of 109 three year olds to work that week on Palm Meadows deepish surface. Trainer Jimmy Jerkens is 26 percent with first-time Lasix runners. I’d take 6-1 or more.
The best Sham horses on performance figures are The Pamplemousse (9-5), Mr. Hot Stuff (7-2) and Take the Points (3-1), also entered in the Fountain of Youth but expected to run here.
Take the Points never has taken a backward step in four starts, earning a competitive figure last out, but is unproven at nine furlongs. He has stamina and grass on the bottom of his family, which augurs well for Pro-Ride, and attracts Garrett Gomez who must negotiate the 12 post.
Mr. Hot Stuff, like Take the Points, is unproven at the trip but jumped up big time in his last, like many three year olds this time of year, and he’s as “fast” as the favorite. The recent graduate is bred to run up the side of a mountain, as racetrackers say.
The Pamplemousse is a worthy and deserving favorite. Developing beautifully, he showed speed and class to win the G3 San Rafael and added distance poses little problem. He’s worked five times since the San Rafael, some of the bullet variety. Trainer Julio Canani, 38 percent at the meet, is an ace with distance types. Alex Solis will try to ride him to a third consecutive win.
Written by John Pricci
Friday, February 27, 2009
Have Lunch at the Track
Saratoga Springs, NY, February 26, 2009--Caught up with the Terry Finley show today on replay. Finley is the founder and president of West Point Thoroughbreds. WPT buys at auction, syndicates, and manages the careers of young race horses in partnership with public investors.
I wasn’t expecting much, figuring that it would be a new, clever way of marketing the brand and increasing exposure within the industry. But I was happy to learn it was something more.
In a Webinar lasting approximately 48 minutes, including a brief Q & A session following Finley’s remarks, the former West Point graduate and eight-year service veteran gave an unsolicited state of the industry address.
Again, I was expecting to get what I often hear whenever industry people make public statements; self serving, self congratulatory rhetoric about how we’re making some not-so-great things better.
And I would have been wrong twice within three paragraphs.
Not that there weren’t the usual platitudes but, on balance, Finley’s remarks rang true. One good thing in these dire times is that the economic pendulum has swung back in favor of the end user, he said.
I braced myself for the sales pitch. But there was none, unless it was buried in a subliminal frame.
Because in this environment stud fees have
come down, and bottom level mares likely won't
be put back into production, elements that are good for buyers and an industry that over-breeds and to date has done a poor job repurposing its retired racehorses.
Finley didn’t sugar-coat current realities, acknowledging the rough sledding ahead and how the industry needs to stabilize and move forward, underscoring by citing the big public negatives of 2008: Eight Belles and steroids.
It was refreshing to hear from a horseman that of racing’s four major components: breeders, owners, tracks and bettors, it was the bettors who were least recognized until now, and how many of them have lost confidence in the industry.
On that players would agree: they have lost confidence, and they resent paying more in takeout, I.e., when they‘re not shut out by a wagering platform dispute.
Indeed, progress has been made in ridding the game of steroids and the elimination and/or modification of toe grabs. And Finley did cite positive NTRA initiatives on injury and fatality reporting and prevention; safety equipment and environment; medication and testing; jockey safety and health, and aftercare and transition of retired stock, components needed for track certification within the NTRA franchise.
But there was no mention of NTRA’s neutral position on the enabling of equicide. Perhaps NTRA is hoping for funding from the American Horse Council organization which, incredibly, stands neutral on the horse slaughter issue. The public at large considers neutrality on this indefensible.
Finley is correct that the tracks, NTRA, and Breeders’ Cup take many unfair knocks, adding he’s tired of hearing it. Apparently he is unaware of the industry’s thin skin and penchant for shooting messengers.
And if it were not for an independent media, where would the impetus for change come from? What would be the incentive for eliminating the status quo? Which organizations would willingly jeopardize the bottom line in the interests of doing no harm?
But Finley is one of the game’s few practitioners to make a pro-active contribution, in this case launching an initiative he calls F.A.T.E.--Find A Thoroughbred Enthusiast. He is asking West Point’s associates to introduce three people to racing before the first Saturday in May.
“Buy them lunch, introduce them to the Racing Form and all the other aspects of the magic we live every day.
“What I'd suggest, if you derive any pleasure whatsoever from our business, is to make it a point and your mandate to bring at least three people into our great business.
"We have a chance to capture an all-new group of fans, a new group of bettors. We have an opportunity now to really make this business bigger and stronger.”
Finley wants bettors with a vested interest in the health of the game to take “fate” into their own hands. Bringing a few people to the track is certainly not an unreasonable request, although I suggest it should be a day that you don’t love the card.
I wrote a recent blog about how I introduced a young man named Brian to the Saratoga simulcast during the holiday season. He called last weekend to talk Derby Futures. He did his homework, asked intelligent questions, wanted to know if Old Fashioned was for real.
I can’t vouch for the answers but I did my best. OK, so for me, it’s one down, two more to go. The rest of it is up to all of us.
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, February 19, 2009
Stardom Bound: Can We Talk?
Like everyone else last weekend, I was pre-occupied with those boys that would be king of the three year olds.
But with the exception of the division's prince, Old Fashioned, and an upstart named General Quarters, it was a pair of fillies who really caught my eye.
Please don’t take it personal; it’s only handicapping. Besides, you know what I think of you.
Just in case Mike forgot to mention it, I’ve already said you deserve a chance to run in the show, the Kentucky Derby, no matter how your new barn mate Patena makes out in New Orleans next month.
Patena. What kind of name is that for a boy, anyway?
Now I don’t mean for you to get jealous, but I want you to say hello to my new, not-so-little friends.
You may already know Evita Argentina. She’s out in Southern California, just a few barns away. And you know she’s the same age, right? Well, she is.
And did you know she’s already beaten the boys? Well, she has, and not to make you jealous or anything, but they made her the San Vicente favorite. Can you imagine?
By now you probably heard that she won, coming from last--flying, just like you. And she’s already made some history. She’s only the third filly to win this race, one by a DQ.
The other? Well, not to make you feel worse, but to give you something to shoot for, it was a filly named Busher, owned by a Hollywood big shot, and she got named Horse of the Year!
Not bad for a three year old filly, right? So you can do it, too. It just takes some really, really, special like, you know, the first weekend in May in Louisville?
No, not the Friday race, silly, the Saturday one. The one everybody watches.
I’ve got to tell you. At no time was there ever a chance she was going to win that race. She was so-o-o-o far back.
And when she started running--you could tell she was going really fast--but you still never thought she’d get there. Then, maybe she could. Then it was, like, awesome.
The jockey said she didn’t even like the soggy track that much; kept on coming out of the bridle on him. You know what that’s like.
But here’s the scary part. He thinks she can run even better. Sounds like fightin’ words to me.
The people that have her say she might run in the Fair Grounds Oaks. And that’s the same day Patena runs in that Creole Derby, right?
So you can ask him what he thinks the next time you see him. Probably not until the both of you get to Kentucky.
Hope all that ice is melted by then. But enough about her.
Ever hear of Rachel Alexander? You should have, she’s been in all the papers, especially after Sunday’s race.
It wasn’t such a big deal of a race, but it was a stakes, the Martha Washington, a mile at Oaklawn Park.
I’m warning you now, don’t try to catch a replay, especially if you see Evita Argentina first. I’m afraid it’ll give you nightmares. She won so-o-o-o easy.
I know what you’re thinking; you’re the champ. The Eclipse Award has to go through you. But let‘s not get ahead of ourselves here.
What’s that? Yes, I know. The gray colt was pretty scary on Monday. But don’t think for a minute that that Friday race in Louisville is going to be any pushover.
Rachel Alexander broke her maiden on that track, placed in a couple of graded stakes, then won the Golden Rod, their big two year old stakes for fillies.
So she’ll be waiting, you know that. She likes that track, and you haven’t even run on dirt. Period. I know, it’s not your fault, didn’t say it was.
OK, I might as well tell you. She won her first start this year by eight with her jockey, Calvin Borel, looking all around the place.
Calvin? You know he’s real good in Louisville, right? Made a whole career there one day.
Look, I’m not trying to get you rank, and I haven’t lost any faith in you. It’s just that it’s not going to be as easy as last year, and I wanted you to know that.
I’m glad you’re going to run in your own backyard Oaks next. Seasoning is good for you. It’ll make you stronger, smarter.
So take good care, now. And don’t let the barn door hit you in the hindquarters.”
Written by John Pricci