Saturday, April 26, 2008
Big Brown Tops Powerful Pool 1 Futures Entry
Until the industry comes up with a better solution to the Kentucky Derby future book wagering scenario--namely to include a significantly greater number of horses--Pool 1 remains the only way to go.
Of course, value is in the eye of the beholder, and there were some bargains still available in Pools 2 or 3. But the bad news is that it probably would have taken a clunker of a race by a major contender to make its price appealing.
Think you might have gotten better than 5-1 on Pyro had his Blue Grass been run before Pool 3?
Under the present guidelines, had you taken the field--traditionally the favorite or near-favorite at the end of Pool 1 wagering--next Saturday you’d be sitting with, among others, a field-entry of Big Brown, Gayego, Recapturetheglory, Adriano, Cool Coal Man, Big Truck, Behindatthebar and the filly, Eight Belles.
If Rick Dutrow keeps his word, you’d be lucky to get 3-1 standing alone with Big Brown.
Off his strong, wide-both-turns placing in the Arkansas Derby, it’s unlikely 37-1 will be offered on Z Fortune at the Downs or anywhere else on Saturday.
Even if horseplayers or casual fans have serious concerns about whether early second choice Colonel John will handle the Churchill dirt, I don’t believe 19-1 will be readily available.
Anyone who saw Tale Of Ekati’s five furlongs in 1:00.40 at Keeneland April 23rd will get in line early to collect 33-1 on the winner of the Grade 1 Wood Memorial.
No Prado? No problem. Eibar Coa is 2-for-3 on Barclay Tagg’s three-year-old.
The Denis Of Cork people clearly overplayed their hand and consequently might not make it into the gate but, if he does, his ability and fondness for the Churchill surface would make 46-1 look like a gift-horse, Illinois Derby and all.
And while many fans doubt whether the fast, ultra-consistent Smooth Air can carry his ability the entire trip, all would line up to find out at 159-1. At least they should be, off his key-race Florida Derby placing alone.
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, April 24, 2008
More Spin Than Hillary’s War Room
The racing business is no different than any other that’s built on spin.
I bring this up because on Monday, shortly after it was announced he would be inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame, jockey Edgar Prado explained to reporter Tim Wilkin why he committed to ride Adriano in the Kentucky Derby for trainer Graham Motion.
Motion and Prado made their bones on the Maryland circuit and have enjoyed a highly successful relationship for many years. So after he rode Adriano to victory in the Grade 2 Lane’s End Stakes, Motion asked for a Derby commitment and got it.
Then what was all the jive about how Adriano’s April 13 workout at Churchill Downs--as opposed to the colt’s demonstrated success on Polytrack and turf--would be the deciding factor for Prado?
When the rider committed to Motion, he had yet to win the Wood Memorial aboard Tale Of Ekati or the Blue Grass Stakes on Monba. The Lane’s End was run March 22nd. The other two races weren’t run until April.
When exactly Prado got the calls from Barclay Tagg and Todd Pletcher, respectively, to ride in the Wood and Blue Grass is anyone’s guess. And it won’t do any good to ask now.
In all likelihood, the workout had nothing to do with Prado’s decision because had Tagg and Pletcher realized they wouldn’t necessarily get Prado back for the Derby, they might have gotten different Wood and Blue Grass jockeys.
The double-edge sword there is that Prado might not have had the chance to earn his 10 percent of two purses worth a combined $1.5-million. But who’s to say that Tale Of Ekati and Monba would have won their close Grade 1 finishes without Edgar’s Hall of Fame services?
Racing’s a funny business.
Perhaps turf writers only have themselves to blame when things come up different than originally presented.
Later in the Wilkin interview, Prado said: “At the time, we didn’t know how the other horses were going to run. I think [Adriano] has a chance. We’ll have to wait and see.”
Not exactly the vote of confidence Adriano fans were looking for. But maybe the good karma that loyalty engenders will compensate.
Guess you can’t believe everything you read. Not even when you write it.
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Hall of Fame Voters Make Right Calls But Balloting Needs Tweaking
Couldn’t be happier that contemporaries Carl Nafzger and Edgar Prado will be inducted into the Racing Hall of Fame in August as first-ballot nominees. Because it’s good when ability and humility can be recognized all at once.
“If you don’t believe in God, study my life,” Nafzger said after collecting his thoughts when he learned of his induction on Monday. “It’s been a miracle.”
Said Edgar Prado: “Just to be nominated for the Hall of Fame among all my peers was great. To win is amazing.”
The addition of the 73-year-old Ismael Valenzuela, as determined by the Historic Review Committee, was no less gratifying.
I fell in love with the game after I fell in love with Kelso. Back in the day it seemed he was in the feature race every Saturday. The handicap weights kept going up and up; 130, 133, 136, whatever. But the result was always the same.
Valenzuela won 22 of those stakes races aboard Kelso. When considering that history often associates the great Eddie Arcaro with Kelso, Valenzuela’s accomplishments on the great gelding needed to be recognized.
Throw in a couple of Kentucky Derby victories and it must have been a slam dunk for the committee to bestow such a deserved honor. They made a good call with the hard-hitting and versatile Ancient Title, too.
I recognize the 14-for-17 slate of the filly Inside Information as deserving, even if I voted for Silverbulletday. The same can be said for Manila, although I preferred Best Pal.
The late Robert Wheeler was deserving but he didn’t make it.
Whatever differing opinions concerning eligibility and voting rules as expressed by, well, virtually everyone, my colleague Steve Davidowitz proposed minimum benchmarks for Hall inclusion that are worthy of serious consideration.
Surely greatness should include some objective standard, some framework for reaching an honorable accord. Davidowitz, in some instances, set the bar very high. Perhaps that’s as it should be:
A jockey who wins 6,000 races and 50 graded stakes should gain an automatic Hall of Fame berth. I’ll say. Five thousand, with the same graded stakes proviso, works for me.
Or jockeys who win a combined 10 Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup races, or led the country in money-won, and/or number of races won, for a total of eight years.
Those would be automatic Hall of Fame credentials, indeed.
Any trainer whose horse sweeps the Triple Crown should gain an automatic berth. (In the case of Billy Turner, who accomplished this with Seattle Slew, the only one to do so while undefeated, his absence from the Hall is a charade).
Trainers that win eight Grade 1 stakes; or 12 graded stakes including six Grade 1s; or two or more Eclipse Awards; or two or more money-won titles; or a combination of four Triple Crown and/or Breeders’ Cup victories--would deserve automatic inclusion.
Haggle over specific numbers but the notion that some objective standard should merit inclusion by rite is worthy of discussion.
But no one who loves the sport should feel cheated this year. This was no popularity contest, although it could have been considering the character of the awardees.
As the winner of over 6,000 races and more than $207-million in earnings, including five champions, an Eclipse Award, and three Triple Crown races, to enumerate a few of his accomplishments, no one can deny Prado’s greatness.
Nafzger’s Hall of Fame destiny was sealed when his second Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense, crossed the finish line at Churchill, racing’s first winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Derby. His first Derby horse, Unbridled, was only the second to win the Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic in the same season.
Nafzger guided three-year-old filly champion Banshee Breeze to five Grade 1 wins and last year won only 18 races but over $4.3 million in earnings, 24th nationally, the only trainer in the Top 100 in earnings with fewer than 100 starters.
And the moment wasn’t lost on either man. Said Prado to Bloodhorse.com: “This sport is very, very special because you never know who you can meet around the corner and which one will have a champion for you to ride.”
“You’ve got to remember the responsibility of where you are now,” Nafzger said. “You represent a sport and you better represent it good. I just hope I can represent it as good as some of the people who are in the Hall of Fame.”
Current Hall of Famers will be in good company, too.
Written by John Pricci