Friday, January 01, 2016
On Gettin the New Money
EXCLUSIVELY for 123GAMING.com, reprinted via special promotional arrangement
By John Pricci
Three things: Happy Birthday Thoroughbreds! Turn the page; you’re even! The Derby prep season is on!
Of course, it’s all well and good to rejoice and enjoy the sport but, to be honest, it’s better when you win.
So let’s celebrate all the above by starting with the prep season and more at Gulfstream where two sophomore stepping stones are offered Saturday; the Hutcheson and Mucho Macho Man, and in New York where three-year-olds take center ring in the Jerome.
Not only those but there are three more events on the five-stakes Hallandale docket, so we’ll stay on the East Coast.
The prototypical Saturday card at Gulfstream at this time of year, the program features five maiden races--four maiden allowances and a claimer on turf—to go along with those five added-money events.
Three of the Gulfstream stakes are graded, the six furlong G3 Hutcheson; the G3 Old Hat for fillies at the same trip and the G3 Dania Beach for 3YO turf colts. Also featured is the listed Mucho Macho Man at one mile. At the Big A, it’s the G3 Jerome.
GRADE 3 HUTCHESON STAKES 3YOs 6 FURLONGS
A bit of a Rubik’s cube, with Awesome Banner (7-2), Full Salute (9-2), Noholdingback Bear (3-1) and Sheikh of Sheiks (9-5), all capable in this seven-horse lineup. Awesome Banner just might be a freak.
After breaking maiden in his 4-1/2 furlong track record debut in June, today will be start #2. Why no races in between? A small knee chip was removed after that race but it was not, according to connects, a huge issue. He’s ready to run, but this is a big leap.
Full Salute is also getting a class test but he’s long on experience; a 7-time starter that has three wins and seconds including two listed stakes. The speedy race shape will suit.
But ‘Bear’ and ‘Sheikh’ are the two that impress as possible “best horses.” ‘Sheikh’ won the BC Juvenile Sprint at Keeneland last out, defeating ‘Bear’ who was making his dirt debut off an impressive synthetic introduction. Both are coming in off New Pace Tops.
Honestly, we don’t know what to do. The one that interests us most is Noholdingback Bear who could surge forward in a big way here, now with two races and dirt track experience. At 3-1 or less, will key in exotics; we’d bet to win at 7-2 or more.
GRADE 3 OLD HAT 3YOs 6 FURLONGS
This one’s interesting even for a short field. The fastest horses on any scale are My Dear Valenzuela (15-1) and Lucy N Ethel (8-5) but there are issues with both. Ballet Diva (9-5) belongs here, too, but will she be pressured from the pole or just scoot away?
Will a fast 5-1/2 furlongs translate into six in the case of ‘Valenzuela’? No idea. Is the latter, a filly shipping into this off short rest, capable of a repeat effort? However, she is trained by the super Ramon Preciado so that question could be moot.
Catira Rock (6-1) intrigues at a price. She’s won two over the track and at today’s trip, her last race here was a solid move forward and she should be able to continue progressing. Whatever. It’s the race shape and switch to Zayas that seals this deal for us.
: As it almost always is, horizontals notwithstanding, it’s about price, and we must get 9-2 or more since ‘Rock’ is going from 25K sellers into a Grade 3. We are talking young, fast developers so the tote rules. We will key ‘Rock’ in all positions with her two rivals above and include the very fast Ballet Diva (9-5) in the exotics mix.
GRADE 3 DANIA BEACH 3YO 7-1/2 FURLONGS TURF
The only safe prediction we’ll make is that three, four, or more of the 10 entrants will race in Grade 1 company before 2016 ends. We will look at four of them here; Isotherm (6-1), Mountain Music Man (7-2), Life Imitates Art (4-1) and Ray’s The Bar (3-1).
‘Ray’s’ is the unluckiest trip runner in the field not named Isotherm. The former was eliminated completely at the quarter-pole in the BC Juvenile Turf and many thought his trip was the difference between winning and losing the G3 Pilgrim. So there’s that and Javier; that makes him 3-1.
Isotherm is the kind that always will be compromised by a deep-closing style. And that makes it between the uncoupled Chad Brown ‘Life’ and Todd Pletcher’s ‘Music Man’. Both will gets lots of tote attention, of course. We’ll shade Todd’s runner because he’s handier and is well posted with Johnny.
We’re looking to bet Mountain Music Man to win, minimum of 3-1, and an exacta box with Life Imitates Art. Isotherm and Ray’s The Bar are included in our super-exotics mix.
MUCHO MACHO MAN 3YO ONE MILE
For our money, it’s the ship-in vs. the local, and the interloper is from the Mid-Atlantic, not New York or Kentucky.
As racetrackers say, Awesome Speed (9-5) could be any kind. After a clunker debut, he was a stylish winner over 11 Laurel rivals and returned to win the James F. Lewis there despite being pressed throughout. Clearly fastest on the Thoro-Graph scale, he’s working strongly at Palm Meadows for Alan Goldberg-profitable with shippers and in 2015 overall, and gets Joel Rosario here.
But we love the racehorse Fellowship (5-2). This hard knocker is (7) 2-3-0 in life and showed huge kick winning the In Reality here around two turns. This is a flat mile but he showed versatility when second in a subsequent sprint before placing again in the Smooth Air, a GPW two-turner. But both wins came here and today’s strong pace will suit nicely.
At early line odds, neither Awesome Speed nor Fellowship are particularly attractive win plays even if they are most likely to succeed. We’d require at least early line odds on the former and a tad higher on Fellowship. Given early odds, recent maiden breaker Aggressive Driver is interesting at 6-1 early odds picking up JR.
G3 JEROME STAKES 3YO 1 MILE, 70 yards
There are some nice potential kings running in Queens this weekend and perhaps a very legitimate Derby contender: Flexibility (1-1).
Donegal Moon (15-1) is the obligatory Pletcher entrant who, after breaking maiden around two turns at Keeneland, set the G2 Remsen pace but tired abruptly.
Bird of Trey (10-1) is the most interesting of the price shots. He has the most experience and comes off an energy-distribution Reversal on the Pricci Energy scale, apropos of Birdstone progeny. He should stretch nicely off his 7-1/4 length Penn Nursery score; Kendrick Carmouche rides for John Servis.
Flexibility is developing beautifully on the Thoro-Graph scale; a series of fast races on a tight pattern. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides for Chad Brown. The bay Bluegrass Cat colt was second twice to undefeated Mohaymen, including the Remsen.
: You won’t get rich…unless. Flexibility is a deserving favorite and likely to be even money or less. Will include Bird of Prey in two-way exactas and may add last-out maiden breaker In Equality (20-1) to super-exotics; needing 12-1 minimum to do so.
BONAPAW BONUS FAIR GROUNDS 5-1/2 FURLONGS TURF
As you might surmise, wide open is what one expects from a large field of turf sprinters. Not sure if it will be a trip or a trap at this juncture but I confess that I likely will break one personal handicapping “rule.”
Generally, in a field of proven turf runners, we let grass-debut types beat us. Not willing to do that today as this looks like the perfect breakthrough spot for Bayerd (9-2).
Class relief, speedy race shape, outside post, mini-turnback and a switch to 25% FG rider Florent Geroux points the way. Of those that have run on turf, Reflector (12-1) is on a healthy line and is an overlay at early line odds.
May make two win bets here, price dependent. Certainly will shade Bayerd but demanding in the neighborhood of 3-1. Reflector will get a win play for sure; 6-1 to 8-1 seems fair enough. Either way, will include both in the exotics mix.
See today's Feature Race Analysis section for selections
Written by John Pricci
Friday, December 25, 2015
Tis the Season…to Open Santa Anita
123BET.com WEEKEND PREVIEW DECEMBER 26, 2015
By John Pricci
Exclusive to 123GAMING.com
HALLANDALE BEACH, FL., December 24, 2015—If Saturday is December 26 then it’s opening day someplace, and that place happens to be what the publicists call “The Great Race Place.”
Hey, if I owned a racetrack with the San Gabriels as a backdrop, that’s what I’d call it, too, that or something equally ostentatious.
What makes the day special for us is that, at once, it signals the end of one year and the beginning of the next campaign simultaneously.
So how will the year end? Which horses will present themselves, in the hyperbolic words of another industry giant, to be the stars of tomorrow? Doesn’t matter, since it promises to be a good show either way.
For this Eclipse voter, one of today’s three Santa Anita features, the Grade 1 La Brea, is needed to settle some unfinished voting business. My ballot was torn between Cavorting, the 5-2 La Brea favorite, and the remarkable win machine, La Verdad, for female sprinter.
At this posting, my lean is toward the latter; but the La Brea will settle it. An excellent performance by the Kiaran McLaughlin-trained filly will push me in Cavorting’s direction. So we shall see.
Coast to coast, this is one crazy, event filled weekend, East Coast sport an entertaining prelude to Santa Anita which will also hosts the G1 Malibu, featuring protem Sprint champion Runhappy, the Grade 2 Mathis Bros (turf) Mile, and the Grade 3 Daytona.
After all, what would a Santa Anita opening be without at least one downhill turf sprint?
Before that, players must course through a pair of stakes sprints in New York--the Gravesend and state-bred Damon Runyon; a trio of Grade 3s from Gulfstream—the Sugar Swirl, McKnight and La Prevoyante, and three listed events in Bayou country; the Woodchopper, Pan Zareta and Pago Hop.
The following is a handicapping look-see of what’s in store while the rest of this crazy world goes exchanging, refunding and bargain hunting. Perhaps we can divine one or two of the latter variety from somewhere between the fences Saturday afternoon.
AQUEDUCT RACETRACK DAMON RUNYON STAKES 1 MILE 70 yards
Normally, we would overlook a six-horse field that includes two 4-5 early line favorites--that’s no typo. Both are trained by Todd Pletcher, which no one disbelieves. But on both the Pricci Energy Ratings and Thoro-Graph scales, Sudden Surprise is the more likely to succeed around two turns Saturday afternoon.
The only way to take money from today’s 2nd race is to have Taoiseach (5-1), with winning two-turn from and winter-track experience, completes the quinella/exacta. With the “other” 4-5 shot out of the mix, value seems assured.
GRAVESEND STAKES 6 FURLONGS
For the record, highly accomplished New York-bred Palace is a deserving favorite (2-1). But based on 2015 form, not so fast. Still, that doesn’t make our task easier. If I were assured that fresh Jake N Elwood (5-1) would shake loose, he’s the value play. But he must break sharply from his pole position.
Should there be a contested pace, Fabulous Kid (7-2), one of two uncoupled Jacobson entrants, has the style to get the job done given suitable dynamics.
At 48 hours pre-post, we’ll wager on Jake N Elwood to win at 4-1 or greater and key-box exactas with Fabulous Kid and Palace. The latter just missed despite a troubled start in the G3 Fall Highweight and drops 11 pounds off that assignment.
FAIR GROUNDS WOODCHOPPER STAKES 1 MILE TURF
This event is highly competitive, as most turf races in New Orleans are. But this field was oversubscribed as 15 3YOs were entered overnight.
Two of the early line choices; Wireless Future (7-2) and Chip Leader (4-1), figure prominently with a recent race over today’s course. In our view, however, the linemaker hung up too much price on Granny’s Kitten (10-1).
The only races in which this colt was not competitive were a pair of Grade 1s and a recent G3 at Hawthorne in which he was forced nearly 8-wide into the lane, losing any real chance.
Mike Maker’s trainee was competitive enough to seriously challenge the streaking and talented Force the Pass in the Penn Mile this spring, and also finished well for place at this trip in Indiana’s Centaur.
Last out, the Kitten’s Joy colt made a premature move in CD’s G3 Commonwealth going longer, now drops back into listed company at his best distance. Maker hasn’t had much success with Albarado recently, but perhaps the pair can break through in this spot.
We’ll take Granny’s Kitten to win at 6-1 or greater and key-box exactas with Wireless Future and Chip Leader.
TAMPA BAY DOWNS ALLOWANCES 7 FURLONGS
The best events that bettor-friendly Tampa Bay could come up with Saturday were a pair of allowance events, one featuring a vulnerable favorite, Mulino (2-1), and a very solid second choice, My House (5-2).
Mulino hails from the Mott barn that has been 25% efficient in his when shipping into Oldsmar, 27% when using Fernando De La Cruz. Two starts back he made a huge forward move at Belmont going 6F, then regressed next out at Aqueduct.
Will he rebound? Well, stretching out again and from the pole, we’re not interested in finding out at 2-1.
My House, meanwhile, has run as fast but with greater consistently, does his best running around one turn at today’s trip or at a flat mile.
Nicely drawn outside, Sandino Hernandez Jr. has made a career shipping into Tampa successfully (30%), mostly with Daniel Centeno, the rider here. Additionally, Hernandez is a profitable 27% turning back from routes to sprints.
Taking My House to win at 2-1 or greater.
GULFSTREAM PARK G3 LA PREVOYANTE 1-1/2 MILES TURF
Whenever you think of jockey who ride for Todd Pletcher, the names Velazquez and Castellano leap to mind. Seldom does one think of Luis Saez, who’s starting this meet the way he did last season: Hot.
Further, in his last four rides for Todd, he’s won three and finished second, through Wednesday.
Today the team hooks up with a late developing 4YO filly that never has taken a backward step on the TG scale, improving incrementally including her most recent effort; a strong, wide rally third from far back in the G3 Long Island at the trip. It was a very solid introduction to graded company.
Leaving from slip 4 in a field of 12—half saddled by Chad Brown and Christophe Clement---English Channel filly has enough tactical gas to be placed wherever Saez thinks she’s comfortably in rhythm and he knows the filly, having won three of six starts on her, never finishing off the board.
We’re betting Gotachancetodance to win at 4-1 or greater.
SANTA ANITA PARK G3 DAYTONA STAKES 6-1/2 FURLONGS TURF
At the end of the day, headlines, win or lose, will find Runhappy (6-5, G1 Malibu), Cavorting (3-1, G1 La Brea) and Om (5-2), G2 Mathis Bros Mile) getting most of the attention. A brief word:
Runhappy is a sprinting freak but there are obstacles to overcome here, namely a hard fought Sprint victory; the talented, lightly raced pair from McLaughlin (Marking & Watershed) and Bob Baffert returnee Lord Nelson, conqueror of Texas Red this spring.
Cavorting will have her hooves full with La Verdad protégé Hot City Girl, and Om will have 11 rivals to deal with after leaving from post 10 going a two-turn mile. All will be formidable; all will be favorites.
Richard’s Boy (6-1) may not be that quote at post time but is highly unlikely to go favorite; that distinction figures to go to No Silent (7-2) with Gary Stevens for Gary Mandella.
Richard’s Boy is a gelded 3YO developing rapidly for Peter Miller whose next downhill defeat will be his first in three tries on the Hillside Course. He prepped for this nicely going 5F at Del Mar November 12, followed by four subsequent works including two bullets.
Victor Espinoza re-rides the Cal-bred that owns laudable versatility, having won by leading throughout or running down leaders from close range. Post 1 can be the good news or the bad news, but that’s Espinoza’s problem.
Taking Richard’s Boy to win at 4-1 or greater, an exacta box with No Silent, and will try squeezing Holy Lute (9-2) and price shot Somethings Unusual (20-1) into the exotics.
The preceding is posted through special promotional arrangement with 123GAMING.com at http://www.123BET.com
On the record for running totals purposes, selections are posted in Saturday's Feature Race Analysis
Written by John Pricci
Friday, December 18, 2015
On the Seventh Day of Christmas…
123BET.com WEEKEND PREVIEW SATURDAY, DECEMBER 19, 2015
By John Pricci
EXCLUSIVE TO 123GAMING.COM
Here we are, one last chance to earn a little extra cash for those last-minute holiday items.
You would think this would be be a time of the year when racing winds down and catches its collective breath. But welcome my friends to the game that never ends.
There are three stakes at Gulfstream Park Saturday including the Grade 3 Mr. Prospector; the Queens County in, well, Queens County, NY; Tampa Bay Downs gets its 2016 three-year-old prep season started, one for each sex.
Never mind that the final Grade 1 of the juvenile year goes this weekend at Los Alamitos. Last weekend it was the Starlet; this weekend, the Futurity.
But wait, there’s more! Six stakes are on the docket in NOLA, two with recognizable names--albeit even the purse for the more celebrated Tiffany Lass reduced to $50,000.
However, they are all great betting races on paper so let’s take a quick handicapping look-in at a half-dozen offerings, starting down on the Bayou:
BLUSHING K.D. 1-1/16 MILES TURF
Very competitive turf route with several prepping for bigger features some graded stakes fillies presumable getting some class relief.
Kitten’s Dumplings (4-1) is dropping out of GPW’s G3 My Charmer after beating Zloty (10-1) by 2 lengths in a listed event there previously.
Today, however, Zloty is benefitting from an eight-pound weight switch, no mere trifle that, and trainer Michael Stidham is batting .400 at the young meet through Wednesday.
But they both will have Eden Prairie (7-2) to deal with. She’s 5-for-9 on this course and 2-for-17 everywhere else, Florent Geroux re-rides her and she is defending last year’s victory in this event.
Kitten’s Dumplings has been consistently fastest on the Thoro-Graph scale for the Maker barn this fall. Class relief makes him the most probable winner on recent form, even if we’re not thrilled with the 124-pound assignment. Zloty has a race at this trip that competes with the likely favorite. Given the hot barn, a 6-pound weight pull and the early odds, she could be the play. But it’s Eden Prairie that holds the key here; she owns the field’s fastest race over this course. Is she the same mare in 2015? Answering that correctly is the key to cashing.
TIFFANY LASS 1 Mile 70 yards DIRT
This two-turner goes through Cash Control (3-1), the only obvious obstacle being the #9 slip in a field of 10. Beyond that, she’s 5-for-9 lifetime and owns a (3) 2-1-0 mark on this ground, including her only run at this trip.
She’s won two of three for the white hot Brad Cox, enjoying a profitable 2015 with all runners, including a strike rate of 26% attempting to repeat. Shaun Bridgmohan has won six of his last 11 rides for this outfit through midweek.
: Cash Control, also cross-entered in the Blushing K.D., finds herself in a better spot here. The competition is not as deep, she’s well posted and has proven to be better on dirt than on the lawn. Brad Cox, having a profitable 2015, is likely to make the right call.
QUEENS COUNTY STAKES 1-1/8 Miles DIRT
A short field of seven looks like a three-horse affair among Kid Cruz (5-2) and a pair from the ubiquitous Pletcher barn, Mylute (4-1) and Tommy Macho (2-1).
Two of the three are on the comeback trail. While many horses have improved since moving into the Pletcher shedrow, Mylute has not made a significant transition.
After taking an optional/allowances, he’s been winless for seven months. In his defense, four of those starts have come in graded company.
Three-year-old Tommy Macho is back in top form, however. After a good third to Frosted in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby, he earned a career best score in the G3 Discovery. He spots weight to his elders here but note he won both starts vs. older at Belmont Park.
On recent form, the favorites are co-fastest and loom the most likely winners; we’d opt for Kid Cruz. But we will give a very long look to price shot Turco Bravo (10-1), dropping from a Grade 3, made a career best run on this ground, gets weight. and returns fresh for Contessa who’s shown a small profit with this type of spacing.
G3 MR. PROSPECTOR 6 FURLONGS DIRT
Always a competitive race on paper, this year’s renewal is no exception, one chock full of Horses for Course runners, such as:
C. Zee (5-1) has won half his eight starts on this oval with three more exacta finishes. His last GP start in February resulted in a victory in the G3 Gulfstream Park Sprint.
Stallwalkin’ Dude (9-5) returns on short rest, having won the Claiming Crown Rapid Transit two weeks ago, but quick turnarounds are nothing new for owner/trainer David Jacobson.
The five-time Gulfstream and six-furlong winner beat Grande Shores (6-1) by 6-1/4 that day while suffering through a tough trip in an apparent prep for this.
Two other surface lovers are Speechify (8-1), also a winner of half his eight starts including the 2014 Mr. Prospector and Weekend Hideaway.
While the latter is only 1-for-5 on this strip, that win came in the Sunshine Millions Sprint in January, a career best run for the Speightstown 5YO who comes off a dominatingly fast confidence booster at ‘Calder’ last out.
But in the face of all these Course Horses, we want the much improved three-year-old X Y Jet (7-2), in relatively light and more than capable of leading these on a merry chase throughout beneath recent revelation Emisael Jaramillo. .
TAMPA BAY DOWNS
INAUGURAL STAKES 6 FURLONGS DIRT
It’s only three-quarters and we have no idea whether these colts will make it all the way to the Tampa Derby, much less the one in Louisville, but it’s a start.
Four of the 11 entrants clearly have the best chances: Li’l Meatball (3-1) won the Florida Juveniles Sprint at ‘Calder’ last out and worked a bullet 5F before shipping north. Long on experience, be ships north for David Braddy with regular partner Miguel Vasquez.
Ishaq (5-2) is either a sucker play or the second coming, winning his debut by 10 going 5-1/2 over the track for Efrem Loza Jr., 3-for-5 at this stand and 37% effective with 2YOs.
Formal Summation (3-1) ships from SoFla for Kathleen O’Connell, who’s certainly no stranger to this circuit. He won the 5-1/2 furlong Laurel Futurity three back in the slop.
Jay’s Way (5-1) is the most interesting. Trying to rebound from the G2 Nashua behind the undefeated Mohaymen after showing early speed going a flat mile. Uber talented Antonio Gallardo takes the call from Jamie Ness, 27% profitable in non-graded stakes.
The play must be to find out just what Ishaq is made of, coming of a 10-length romp his racing debut over the track in sensationally fast time going 5-1/2 furlongs against seasoned rivals as the favorite. Found Summation has experience, exits a Nov 28 race that already has produced a winner, and he worked a solid 5/8s at demanding GPW. But 5-2 would be an absolute must. Royal Almighty (8-1), from the live Dennis Ward shed, has exotics prospects.
SANDPIPER STAKES 6 FURLONGS DIRT
The Inaugural’s filly counterpart has drawn nine juveniles including an uncoupled pair from trainers Ralph Nicks and Eoin Harty.
Nicks, who also has an Inaugural entrant ridden by main SoFla man Tyler Gaffalione, has entered the speedy and versatile Kandoo (5-2) and possible rebounder R Kinsley Doll (3-1) with Gallardo.
Harty, whose two runners race without Lasix for Godolphin and Bill Casner, respectively, entered Conflate (6-1), in from Hawthorne with four works over today’s track, and interesting price shot, Slip of the Tongue (15-1), who had every excuse to lose her recent maiden breaker but refused to be denied.
Since that maiden score at Presque Isle Sept. 23, Colonel John filly shows a string of nine works; four at Tampa including a bullet 5F in 1:00 on Dec. 8. Conditioning will not be an issue since all three runs came going a mile over Pid’s Tapeta surface. Harty recently sharpened her with a half-mile breeze in 48 2/5, 3rd fastest of 103 peers this week in Oldsmar. At half that early quote, Slip of the Tongue would deserve a prominent spot on the ticket.
Reprinted here via special promotional consideration with http://www.123BET.com
See Saturday's Feature Race Analysis for final on-the-record win selections
Written by John Pricci