Thursday, July 17, 2008
Can Rising Boats Lift All Tides?
You read that correctly.
Wagering is in the news with the announcement that, for the first time at a New York track, rolling doubles will be offered when Saratoga opens its season next Wednesday. Unlike some other wagers that could have been offered, this one is a good deal for the fans.
The Pick 3, after all, is more of a trap than it appears, looking easier than it actually is. Pick 4s add a layer of difficulty, of course, but are more desirable because payoffs increase exponentially from the Pick 3. And $1 part-wheel units are available, unlike the Pick 6.
The Pick 6 is a different animal altogether, offering the potential for a life-changing score or, at minimum, a fill-up at the local gas station. But the Pick 6 is extremely difficult to win and is beyond the bankroll capabilities of most horseplayers. But they are a great temptation, even for the average bettor, because of the carryover provision.
Any time a wager offers winners more money than is taken in, players are afforded real value.
Rolling doubles are attractive because they don’t tie up money beyond two races, good for both track and player, a rare double, indeed. As opposed to parlays, parimutuel takeout on doubles is extracted once. Having the luxury of starting the wager anywhere on the card is another bonus.
Parenthetically, the posting of odds, probable payoffs, and results, is something most tracks leave to their closed-circuit television departments. In the main, the techs responsible for those duties often are starting their television careers, rarely have an understanding of wagering, and the minimum-wage pay scale rarely inspires creativity and attention to detail.
So it would be good if NYRA executives, between congratulatory pats on the back for Saratoga’s success, occasionally look at monitors to see what track and simulcast customers are seeing, to insure that complete information is presented in a timely manner: This includes leaving multiple-pool probable payoffs like doubles on screen long enough to allow players to scribble the information into their programs.
I worry about these things because someone has to, and because I’m not quite convinced that the people in charge look at what goes out over their air. And with the new graphics packages, don’t be standing too far away from a monitor if you expect to see anything. From any reasonable distance, it’s all a gray blur.
Rolling doubles then are a welcome addition. But I noticed that only one superfecta-- racing’s fastest growing popular wager because of fractional betting--will be offered on the last race of the day. Why? Is it some kind of trade-off with the State Racing and Wagering Board, who needs to grant permission, or is the track just being greedy?
Ever notice that on mega race days tracks eliminate Dime superfectas and revert to a $1 minimum? They think it forces players to bet more money on the best races when, in fact, many bettors just pass entirely. And, at Saratoga, every day is like Derby day.
Actually, tracks are not that much different philosophically from big bettors. You always hear Pick 6 whales lobbying to keep the bet a $2 wager. By lowering that minimum, they argue it allows too much square money into the pool, theoretically increasing the possible number of winners while decreasing carryover potential, something both the tracks and players covet.
Last Sunday at Belmont Park, the Poker Stakes featuring this country’s top grass miler, Kip Deville, was run as the fourth race, keeping it out of the Pick 6 sequence. The short-sightedness involved, as was illustrated by Steven Crist last weekend, is that players might be more inclined to play if they view the wager as a virtual “Pick 5.”
When a sequence becomes too difficult, even Pick 6 whales have been known to back off, putting in small “sanity tickets” just in case. I mention this because the new “Sixty Minute Six” has produced two carryovers in its first four weeks, despite allowing for $1 part-wheels. The winning payoffs were $3,700 in Week 3, which followed a whopping $320,000 carryover-infused payoff in Week 2.
The NYRA and other New York tracks have always grown their betting menus willy-nilly because the state-appointed members of the SRWB act as if they believe it’s their obligation to save bettors from themselves. Shouldn’t adult horseplayers be allowed to decide the pools into which they want to jump?
Saw your blog about the supers. We will be offering at least three a day (as long as we get enough fields of eight –no entry or field)…and maybe more.
Think the confusion is in the info we included in the back of our press kit which produced by another department where super is listed as last race only—because that’s the only place it’s sure to be. The other two currently allowed could show up anywhere on the card.
We are seeking approval to increase the number of supers to have them anytime we have a race of where 8 betting interests leave the paddock (no entry of field)
Sorry for the confusion.
Director of Communications and Media Relations
New York Racing Association
PO Box 90
Jamaica, NY 11417
Written by John Pricci
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
When All Else Fails, Blame the Jockey
Windsor Locks, Ct., July 12, 2008--Joe Rocco, how could you do that to me? What, you thought a handicapper might blame his own self?
Joe, not that you should lose any sleep because I failed to hit the board in the Connecticut OTB handicapping contest. But it would have been nice had you won a couple of races on Saturday’s Delaware program.
Delaware was one of five regional contest tracks, along with Belmont Park, Monmouth, Philadelphia Park and Suffolk Downs. Each contestant had a $100 starting bankroll to wager straight; win, place and show only, at minimum 10 $10 bets. After that, it was any amount goes.
I looked at all five tracks the day before, seeking playable races, i.e., horses with a good chance to win at double-digit odds. Many of the races I chose had three, four or five conceivable winners. The horse that fell through the parimutuel cracks would be my play.
I found two possible races at Monmouth, one at Belmont, two from Suffolk, five at Delaware, and a staggering eight races at Philadelphia Park. In the height of the summer racing season, and on a Saturday, Philly Park. Who’da thunk it?
At decision time, I chose to pass the Belmont race; good move, saved money. I skipped one of the two Monmouth races, another good move, but, on my last play of the contest, I tapped out on 20-1 Jolly Good Guy, a five-claimer who chased the pace to the three-sixteenths pole, where he began running sideways.
At Suffolk, I passed on the first of two plays, the 12-1 Hubbard, bet down to 9-2, and a winner, after being placed first when he got bumped and crowded the length of the stretch by the odds-on favorite. But I did bet Smarty Brown, a 5K maiden-claimer, who finished in mid-pack after showing early speed at 17-1.
But the day was over long before the finale from Suffolk. The tone was set on the very first wager, a wide open maiden race on turf at Philly Park.
We thought four horses could win it. Two were bet too heavily; the others went off at 5-1 and 8-1, respectively. I bet the better value, the 5-1 shot. The 8-1 shot paid $19.60; the 5-1 chance finished second.
In the fourth at Philadelphia, Designer Stripes finished third in a six-horse field at 7-1. In the fifth, Smart Alliance was third at 6-1 (should have passed, in retrospect, he was 12-1 on the early line). In the next race, Sir Togo finished third in a six-horse field at 9-1.
This was getting old. I just couldn’t get off. One win and you could start thinking parlays of shorter-priced but still bettable horses. I was making mini-dollars at the windows, taking logical horses over the price plays in exactas and trifectas.
In the seventh, 7-1 Cimmeron Sue clipped heels and Jose Flores lost his irons. In the next race, Baloobas was fourth of six at 6-1.
But I really liked a horse in the ninth. I thought Indian Reef, 10-1 on the early line and breaking from post 10 at a mile on the turf, could be a huge price because of the wide post. His competition was anchored on the also-eligible list.
However, Gran Cesare got in from the AEs and, from post 10, beats Indian Reef with a rail run on the far turn while my 10.50-1 chance cranked up five wide after leaving from post nine. The 11-10 exacta with the 3-1 favorite was good for $69, but I was still zero-for-the-contest.
Ultimately, all but one price play finished in the money at Philadelphia. Maybe I should have been thinking show bets which, ironically, was the partial tack taken by the eventual winner. And this was the point where Rocco might have helped out a little.
It was about mid-tournament and some of the better races (read better prices) were coming up, like the fifth from Delaware Park. Rocco was on a sharp speedster named Pattysbuddy from the rail, 12-1 on the early line. I was so confident I didn’t welcome the late scratch of the formidable early favorite, Run With Me; it would hurt the odds.
Actually, Rocco rode the hair off his mount, rating him well in quick fractions while under pressure, pulling the rug on the field into the lane and looked home free--until Tony Dutrow’s Light Sentence nailed him in the final strides. At 7.70-1, and at a critical juncture, a win would have put me in position to do some damage.
But it really was the ninth at the Stanton track that was my personal feature of the day. In the 1-1/16 miles maiden turf route, I thought half the 12-horse field could win. Certainly one would fall between the cracks, and one did, Danny Furr’s Great Kate Above, Rocco up.
No one without gray hair would know this but Furr--a good old boy in the best sense of that term--was a long-time assistant to MacKenzie Miller. “Mack” Miller was a 1987 Hall of Fame inductee and a turf ace. Great Kate Above, 15-1 on the early line, opened at 30-1 and virtually stayed there. I bet enough to put me into the lead as no one had broken the contest open yet.
The filly ran great but finished third. The chart footnote…“made a four wide middle move then was gaining ground late…” doesn’t quite get it. Rocco technically did nothing wrong, but he could have been a little more patient with his rally, waiting for the straight instead of losing valuable ground on the final turn.
The 32.20-1 chance lost place by a half length (costing me a real-dollars exacta), the whole race by a tad more than two lengths. The winner was a 7-5 first-time starter from the Graham Motion barn. (Rain Date will probable ship to Saratoga and beat me there, too).
Mack McClyment of Forrest Hills, Md. finished first after betting $34 to win on Thou Swell in the eighth from Belmont, the winner paying $45.60. Good for him; I don’t even like the horse now.
In the final analysis it was a fun day at a very nicely appointed facility. We’ll point towards New Haven next winter, where Oaklawn Park is not expected to be among the contest tracks. That means no Joe Rocco, who won the Delaware finale on Saturday with Dixies Valentine by eight lengths, paying $3. Big deal.
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Curlin’s Road to Immortality Starts Today
To grass, or not to grass? That is the question and, with that, the grand Curlin experiment begins today in the 11-furlong Grade 1 Man o’ War at Belmont Park.
Steve Asmussen, the trainer who’s left nothing to chance when it comes to the 2007 Horse of the Year, begins prepping for a go in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at the track modeled after Longchamp, the site of what has been called the world’s most prestigious horse race.
For the first time--I don’t know, ever?--the Man o’ War is not in its traditional place on the Belmont fall calendar. To make the NYRA turf program all it can be, the Man o’ War was moved to the summer meet this year, to be followed by the Sword Dancer at Saratoga and the Turf Classic, back at Belmont, in the fall, Grade 1s all.
But first things first for Curlin, and a meaningful test it will be for a horse that hasn‘t been beaten since this time last year.
Four of his six Man o’ War rivals are Grade 1 winners, including two winners of the Breeders’ Cup Turf, the redoubtable Better Talk Now and Red Rocks, one European who actually prefers firm ground.
The group also includes last year’s Sword Dancer winner, Grand Couturier, and the Gran Premio Di Milano winner, Sudan, now under Bobby Frankel’s shed and a recent Grade 3 prep winner for this at Golden Gate Fields.
Actually, Sudan rates to move forward off his recent race and will have to if he wants to be competitive. But it certainly appears that he’s been pointed this way by Frankel, who probably didn’t count on the Horse of the Year being part of the fray.
Curlin’s two main obstacles are the two Turf winners. Our guess is that while Bobby Ribaudo wouldn’t mind winning this, a repeat victory in the Sword Dancer, which would be his third start of the season, is the more coveted target.
Mission Approved and True Cause just look too ambitiously placed in this spot.
Nine-year-old Better Talk Now might have lost a step to age but not much more. He still wants to be competitive, still earns Grade 1 performance figures, and just wants to beat you. He showed that in the recent Manhattan before running into the herd while in the midst of his rally. It didn’t cost him the win, but clearly he would have finished closer.
Graham Motion’s gelding goes sans rabbit today, but likely will get an honest enough pace from either Mission Approved or Sudan, perhaps both. Per usual, Ramon Dominguez takes the call.
Red Rocks just likes racing on this side of the pond. Two years ago he won the Turf over firm Churchill Downs ground and last year was a good third in the bog at Monmouth Park, the classy winner English Channel benefiting from a dream trip under the conditions. Patient Javier Castellano replaces ebullient European star Lanfranco Dettori.
Of course, it’s Curlin’s race to lose despite his grass inexperience. He’s worked three times since winning the G1 Stephen Foster, including a seven-eighths breeze around the dogs on grass at Churchill in 1:31 2/5, satisfying his trainer.
On the Equiform performance scale, it appears only Better Talk Now and Red Rocks can pose a serious threat the favorite, whose figures tower over the group. If Curlin takes to the turf, everyone else is running for second. There’s nothing to it--but to do it.
Hope It's A Clear Day:
We’ll be watching the Man o’ War from Connecticut OTB’s Bradley Teletheater, trying to win a handicapping contest for which we qualified with a Top 20 finish in New Haven tournament last winter.
A live money contest, it costs $100 to enter and $100 to buy in. The handicapper with the highest bankroll wins, players getting to keep the money in their account at contest’s end. Handicappers can wager in person or on line; win, place and show only.
In addition to prize money, the top three finishes earn a spot in the 2009 World Series of Handicapping at the horseplayer friendly Orleans in Las Vegas.
The five regional contest tracks are Belmont, Monmouth, Delaware, Philadelphia Park and Suffolk Downs. If you have an interest, you can get more information from Connecticut OTB’s Todd Hill at 203.946.3140.
Written by John Pricci