Friday, December 12, 2008
HRI Readers Hold Their Own Symposium
Saratoga Springs, NY, Dec. 11,2008--For racing’s leaders just now returning from the University of Arizona Symposium on Racing and Gaming who haven’t had an opportunity to catch up on all things Forum, here is a sampling of how your customers responded to a recent HRI blog on the marketing of horse racing.
Reader responses address racing’s problems with suggestions on what might be done to improve the racing experience. Edited for clarity and to avoid duplication, this is what your fans think in their own words. HorseRaceInsider believes their feedback deserves its own stage:
“I can’t believe [the symposium] has nothing on changing the mindset of the industry…In order to attract young players, it [needs] winners that new players can try to emulate. At its current pricing (track takeout), long term winners are almost as rare as mastodons unless the winner is getting a substantial rebate. There is no way racing can market winners on that [high takeout] basis.”
: “I’ve played horses for over 30 years…Are the issues discussed much different than what was discussed [then]? An older fan base? Drugs? Trainers who juice?… What we love about the game, handicapping, is what makes the sport so difficult to market.”
Young Racefan says
“I’m a newer fan…in my late 20s. Horseracing is entertainment for me. I have no knowledge of present day nor historical problems… Any new person on the track would not take a breakdown well… When I bring my friends… if they lose $, they want to be able to have a good story, or some sort of tangible takeaway like the casinos have…symbiotic entertainment relationships that soften the blow of dollar loss…
“It is HARD to learn how to handicap as a casual race goer…and until I start winning frequently I won’t be an everyday track person… The analytical people in my circle love it though!
“I like the experience, the history, the entertainment. I like the interaction in the paddock. I like the thrill. Now, how do you get people like me to keep coming back? I suggest positioning as an entertainment destination and work on recapture from there...
“PLEASE market to me in a way I can relate to. Keep it fun, quirky and rewarding. Reach out to me through social media, internet, local networking groups who meet monthly. Sponsor an event, then be prepared to CAPTURE.”
Cangamble [responding to Racefan]:
: “They are marketing to you and have been for years. But it doesn’t work in a way that will get maximum return… By not marketing it as a competitive form of gambling, racing is losing big-time to other forms of competition… That is why the bottom line is getting its butt kicked by inflation when it comes to growth.”
Young Racefan [responding to Cangamble]:
“How are they marketing to me…? I WANT to see it. I WANT to be targeted. I use my web/cell phone every day--but I see no message like radio stations and my fav haunts send to me. It comes about monthly and by showing my phone on premises, I get an incentive of some sort at the door.
“I don’t subscribe to a newspaper--all my content is online. I listen to MP3s, not radio. I have streaming news on my laptop. I attend wine tastings and restaurant openings, sporting and entertainment events…
“…I really don’t want to be labeled as a ’gambler…’ Even the Vegas commercials focus on night life, pretty people, pageantry…‘What Happens in Vegas Stays in Vegas’ is one of the most successful campaigns nationwide and plays off the ambiguity…
“…I want to be where seeing and being seen is part of the ‘scene…’ a sporting event, club, gallery opening, black-tie benefit, etc… I feel I represent the young professional with some discretionary income. What about when I retire--better hook me now or I won’t be there when I’m 65.”
…“Many potential young fans are spending money on poker, sports betting and fantasy football: They know they can win long term, if good enough. We see poker players who made it big online and on TV. We need a carrot…”
Young Racefan response:
“I think [those] are easier, less intimidating, more accessible from-your-laptop form of wagering… So who’s teaching the next gen of horse fans to be passionate at any level…?
“Marketing that [racing] is a game of chance is good, it has some appeal. But, really, the EXPERIENCE of actually being on track is what will keep me coming back. What makes the Ky. Derby so great? The experience. On multiple levels.
“I’m writing this to offer insight into the mind of my generation…I hope to be tomorrow’s wealth. I hope to attend as a pastime and not as an indulgence…There may be a new mentality emerging among all generations [based on] the current economy.”
Wendell Corrow says:
“Win, lose or break even, a day at the track is an enjoyable experience…What hooks people is when they walk away from a gambling venture with more money in their pocket than when they arrived. Thoroughbred racing’s gambling options are more challenging, requires more intellect, and are far more interesting when the action starts--but who knows this?”
Vaguely Familiar says:
… “On any given Saturday here in Maryland you will see a remarkable number of younger people. You may have noticed how active the marketing department here has been lately with great promotions every Saturday. Several racetracks are now getting into social networking sites… In regards to drugs: there isn’t an athletic/sport business out there that’s not trying to overcome the chemists!”
I used to go to Saratoga Harness simulcast (clubhouse dining room)… It was enjoyable with your own monitor, a wagering console, plenty of room to spread out your data while having a nice lunch. I tipped well, bet significantly, and had an enjoyable experience. That all changed when the racino came in…I became a second class citizen since they were now subsidized by casino revenue…I wrote a letter on their web-site to which there was no response… I have not gone back since I am an irrelevant part of their equation, as the racino is doing very well without my wagering dollar while the horse fan base takes a step backward.
D. Masters says:
“Maybe the powers…controlling racing need to remember that fans are bred, born, raised and cared for in perpetuity, just like the horses, jocks and caretakers--and they still haven’t gotten that right, either…Cut the racing dates, cheap claimers, improve customer service, track all betting with contributions to horse retirement, jockey/backstretch disability contributions, and educate so that more will bet… And get rid of drugs on race day with a national racing regulatory authority and enforcement. Period.”
Sheikh Comeonnow bin Sultan Ofswing says:
“When will action begin taking the place of words?”
Written by John Pricci
Thursday, December 11, 2008
Horses to Watch
Saratoga Springs, NY, Dec. 10,2008--A shout-out to Steve Haskin of Bloodhorse.com for the heads up. It’s about today’s sixth race at the Fair Grounds, a two-turn mile featuring very soon-to-be 3-year-olds.
Haskin called it “one of the strongest and deepest 2-year-old allowance fields ever assembled at Fair Grounds…several of whom have already excited fans with their dazzling performances.”
Well, OK then.
So for those of you who never contract Derby Fever, think of this as a bonus free race analysis. But for those looking for possible Derby Futures plays, or enjoy seeing good young horses run, or just want to learn more about how the game is played, read on.
The main players in the nine-horse field are 5-2 early line favorite Indygo Mountain; Friesan Fire, second favorite at 3-1, and the 8-1 price shot, Escalon, shipping in from So Cal for trainer Doug O’Neill.
Of lesser interest but certainly worthy of mention are Uno Mas (6-1), Map Of the World (9-2) and Doc‘s Friend (6-1). Deep, indeed.
Bret Calhoun trains Indygo Mountain, a son of A. P. Indy who broke his maiden with complete authority by 6-¼ lengths going a one-turn mile at Churchill Downs on Nov. 19. He’s a worthy favorite, one that bears watching given his connections and pedigree. Owner Clarence Scharbauer of Alysheba fame doled out $600,000 for the September 2007 yearling.
Developmentally, Indigo Mountain’s done nothing wrong in a two-race career. He impressed with his maturity at first asking, earning an excellent Equiform performance figure, distributing his energy in a fairly efficient manner. A good sign.
Then, in start two, he not only moved forward winning over the Derby track but showed an improved combination of speed and power. Today we’ll see how he settles in his two-turn debut. His trainer has won with six of his last 16 starters in the past two weeks.
But figure that stakes-placed Friesan Fire will be the post time favorite. Trained by Larry Jones--who was so high on the colt before he started that he failed to personally accept an award from the New York Turf Writers this summer opting instead to drive from Saratoga to Delaware Park to saddle his A.P. Indy colt to a maiden debut win.
Following that was a creditable third in the Grade 3 Belmont Futurity and a fourth-place finish in the G2 Nashua. Adding blinkers for today’s race, he’s had three strong works over the Fair Grounds course including a bullet half-mile in :47-flat, breezing. It was faster than 219 other two-year-olds to work four furlongs in New Orleans this week.
On performance figures Friesan Fire never has taken a backward step, showing the kind of incremental development desired in a youngster. And his figures improved as the distances have lengthened, which makes sense given his pedigree. He’s not quite as fast as Indygo Mountain but is coming up to this race the right way.
California shipper Escalon finished third in the Cal Cup Juvenile and was beaten less than five lengths in the G1 Del Mar Futurity, won by subsequent Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Midshipman.
What Escalon lacks in performance figures he makes up for in experience and a two-sided distance pedigree. There are two significant firsts at work: first-time Patrick Valenzuela and, significantly, first-time dirt. First-time P Val is a positive; first-time dirt an unknown.
Before betting your money know that Jones has a fast, uncoupled stablemate of Friesan Fire in Doc’s Friend, the second fastest horse on the Equiform performance scale. And Steve Asmussen has a well bred colt, Uno Mas, a son of Macho Uno who owns a big performance-figure win over the track. No small edge that.
Finally there’s Map Of The World, a half-million dollar yearling purchased by B Wayne Hughes and trained by Al Stall. He moved forward in his second start while stretching out to seven furlongs, distributing his energy more efficiently second time out. He’s had three Fair Grounds works and will be ridden a third consecutive time by Robby Albarado.
Betting this race doesn’t figure to make you rich. But you don’t have to wager to enjoy it and learn from it. If you must, key Friesan Fire first and second in trifecta and superfecta pools, betting Friesan Fire to win at 2-1 or greater.
Written by John Pricci
Saturday, December 06, 2008
“Place It on Lucky Dan”
Saratoga Springs, NY, Dec. 5, 2008--Inquiring handicapping minds want to know: A loyal reader and regular bettor recently asked if there were a proper proportion of place-to-win wagering.
“What would be the proper ratio? Some old-timers say it’s 2-to-1, 3-to-1, or even 4-to-1. Just wanted your opinion on which of those [made the most sense].”
I was looking for a fourth alternative: None of the above.
“How you play ultimately depends on your level of tolerance,” said Cary Fotias, professional horseplayer and founder of Equiform, the successful New York-based performance figures company.
“Every study I’ve ever done [indicates] that betting to win is the [best strategy],” Fotias continued. “If you can take the losing, that’s the way to go.”
Fotias also suggested that players keep a record of their bets which, as most professionals know, is a highly under-appreciated portion of a horseplayer’s betting methodology.
“[As far as your reader is concerned], he should recognize what kind of win bets he makes. If he regularly plays shorter-priced horses, then betting to place would make more sense.
“You never get paid [correctly] betting longshots to place. The worst bet in racing is betting longshots to show. It might feel right but it’s not. It’s a long term loser.
“Psychologically, you want to get something back. My [personal approach] is more like 70-30. But each situation is different. If I like a 4-1 shot and hate the 3-5 favorite, I might go 50-50.
“The only [situation] in which you might consider betting more to place than to win would be on short-priced horses, favorites. The longer the price, the more you should bet to win. When you’re right, you have to score.”
Interesting to note here that the concept of value--that of taking a contrarian approach--applies as much to wagering as it does to the handicapping process itself.
Personally, it’s rare when I make a win-place wager. When I do, as Cary suggested, it’s when I feel I can keep an odds-on favorite from finishing in the top two slots.
In an open race featuring a 2-1 or 5-2 favorite in which I make a win-place wager, I will try to optimize profits with a cold exacta in addition to the straight play.
I would never use more than two horses to complete an exacta, except in rare instances involving extreme longshots and beatable favorites. The cleaner the punch, the better the value.
Real world people are more risk averse than wired for winning and psychology plays a huge role in all this. The one thing that press box wagering--where cheering is not tolerated--has taught is to never get too high or too low. This is more easily said than done.
Winning bolsters confidence, obviously, but it’s wise not to develop a messiah complex. Certainly take advantage of situations when you think you’re in a zone, that whatever you play will win. But a score can sometimes make you sloppy, too loose with your betting dollars, forgetting how difficult it was to make big money in the first place.
The converse also is true. Losing takes you out of your best game, making you overly cautious. Each wager is an independent event. What happened in the races before an after does not affect the race at hand. But human nature dictates that it can.
How many times has it happened, after a particularly tough beat or real stupid decision, does the thought occur that this is not going to be your day, that you should fold the tent and go home.
And how many times do you follow that inclination? Conversely, how many times do you ignore those subconscious clues and wind up throwing good money after bad? If you’re honest, probably more times than you’d care to admit.
For me, multiple pools offer more than an opportunity to optimize profits. I use the exotics as many times defensively as I do offensively. But I’m aware how easy it is to “save” myself to death.
Repeat the mantra: The cleaner the punch, the better the value.
As Fotias said, each situation is different. There are times when a three, or four, or five-horse exacta box makes sense, such as in a 12-horse field of maiden claiming two-year-olds when you think it’s 50-50 that the 3-5 public’s choice will finish up the track.
While it sounds counter-intuitive, I often play top choices to finish second in the exacta and trifecta pools. I try to put myself in a position to get lucky should I suffer bad racing luck. There’s no better feeling than when your best bet finishes second and you make more money than if your horse had won.
“If I think a horse has a better-than-odds chance to win at, say, 4-1 but I think the even-money favorite’s going to be real tough, I’ll bet the 4-1 shot to win and box the exacta [rather than making a place bet],” added Fotias.
If only every betting situation were that simple.
Written by John Pricci