I’m not dismissing that notion out of hand.
At Keeneland, juvenile champion Hansen, a.k.a. White Cloud, did everything right but win. I know it’s obvious that Keeneland’s Polytrack has been playing very fast, but fair, at the young meet.
But even at that, 9 furlongs in 1:47.94, is very strong. So is 1:48.71, which is how long it took Bodemeister to run from post 11 to the Oaklawn Park finish line.
It’s not like this extremely talented sophomore class saved its best for the last two major preps, but that notion sure makes the conversation.
Dullahan was beastlike through the final furlong. When Hansen tripped the three-quarter mile mark in 1:11.32, Dale Romans colt was ninth, six lengths behind the leader.
With Kent Desormeaux channeling his inner Calvin Borel, he rallied along the inside to headstretch where Desormeaux tipped his runner wide for a clear run.
As Dullahan was gaining monster momentum with each stride, Hansen opened his lead out to 2-1/2 lengths in midstretch and appeared home free—nearly home free.
On the payoff side of the sixteenth pole, Hansen began to shorten stride, and now let the questions begin. Was he absolutely fully primed, with the big dance only three weeks away? Was it the pace, which was faster than a :12-clip at every pole until he needed :24.14 to go from the three-quarters to the mile.
Or did he just fail to stay 9 furlongs? If I were asked to bet my life on one of those possibilities, I’d probably had to choose the latter.
But even if he had not shortened stride, who’s to say Dullahan wasn’t going to get him anyway? I mean he was fly-y-y-y-ing!
The chatter at Gulfstream Park this winter is that recent perennial leading breeder Frank Stronach was interested in buying into the colt. Don’t know anything beyond that, except to say Mr. Stronach has a keen eye for equine athletes.
Romans deserves all manner of credit for getting Dullahan to this point at this time. In the ultra-key Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Dullahan didn’t get any the best of it yet only six lengths separated him from the champion. Consider those six lengths made up.
A half hour later, Bodemeister, remarkably, made Dullahan’s effort seem like ancient history. And consider that Dullahan was five lengths behind at the eighth pole, the final three furlongs taking a mere :36.62 to complete. You do the math.
The Bob Baffert runner, after gathering himself following the start, raced to the lead with authority and under control; he was no runoff.
And he didn’t need no stinking blinkers, either. He took the track and controlled fractions of :23.02, :46.55., 1:11.36, and a mile in 1:36.74. But here’s where his effort gets really interesting.
Bodemeister needed :37.35 to complete his final three furlongs, as opposed to the final three-eighths of the Blue Grass of :36.62.
But when Bodemeister opened his lead out to three lengths during a fourth quarter of :25.38, it was actually a breather! Otherwise, how would you explain a final furlong in 11.97. Eleven Ninety-Seven!
What manner of horse is this that he finds more, rapidly, and turns a three length advantage into 9-1/2 at the finish line?
Last week we wrote that this Derby was coming up huge. At the time, we had no idea just how huge it will be. Wow!
Bets N' Pieces: Baffert’s Secret Circle was a game second in the Arkansas Derby after taking earlier legs in the series beneath Rafael Bejarano, his partner yesterday. But Bejarano gets Bode back in three weeks, Mike Smith accepting the mount on Daddy Knows Best on Friday…
Dr. Hansen said on the NTRA conference call that Kiaran McLaughlin, trainer of Wood Memorial runnerup Alpha, knows that Hansen is on top of Ramon Dominguez’s list, who rides both horses. But Dominguez said after the Wood and before the Blue Grass that he would wait to see what happens this weekend. Now what..?
Meanwhile, Dale Romans ran 1-4 in the Blue Grass (Cozzetti), Baffert 1-2 in the Arkansas Derby, and Mike Maker 2-3 in the Blue Grass (Gung Ho). Lost in that shuffle was the Steve Asmussen show. The meet's leading trainer saddled the winners of five races on the Oaklawn Park undercard. He tacked-up longshot Sabercat to a third-place Akrnasas Derby finish.
15 Apr 2012 at 05:59 am | #
Accoding to Trakus, Dullahan ran his final three furlongs in 35.78 and covered 20 feet more ground (2 1/4 lengths) than Hansen.
15 Apr 2012 at 06:07 am | #
I thought the main factor with Bodemeister’s win was how much faster it was compared to the grade one Oaklawn Handicap at the same distance. They had different pace scenarios but it was over a full second faster. Under the conditions of the Ark. Derby, Bodemeister only carried 118 compared to Secret Circle’s 122. If you take just the top two finishers from the six major prep races, it’s a great Derby.
15 Apr 2012 at 07:48 am | #
We were given a strong indication just how deep and talented this group of three-year-olds were when so many of them. I think its up to 9 maybe more of them who ran in the BC Juvenile have come back to win a graded stakes. There are at least 10 colts capable of winning the Derby. Its too bad for a lot of Derby connections because in a nomal year, Mine that Bird. Many of these colts in this year’s race who will run behind the winner would be Derby winners. It’s shaping up to be an incredibly rich field of runners for the Derby.
15 Apr 2012 at 07:51 am | #
I was more impressed by Bode’s final furlong than I was with Dullahan’s final fractions. Twelve is significant on dirt. I had Dullahan at 35.3, 11.4. But his lack of early exertion, especially going Poly to dirt, makes those seemingly fast final fractions of little consequence in three weeks. Recent history: Brilliant Speed came home in 35.0 and 11.3 in The Blue Grass and Stately Victor 35.3 and 12.0. You could argue Dullahan at least has some dirt form, which those two didn’t. And maybe that’s a reason to put him in the mix. Getting back to Bode. The cause for pause for me with him will be my rule that you can’t bounce and win The Derby. Anybody feel that that was just too huge an effort that he can’t possibly duplicate it next out?
15 Apr 2012 at 11:55 am | #
Kyle,
Haven’t seen Equiform figures yet but Bode’s effort sure looked like big forward move. On top of that, only three weeks recovery and the Apollo Rule. But he sure is one freaky individual.
Dick,
Yes, learned this morning about the Trakus final fractions. Two things: I do believe ground loss matters, regardless of running style preference and that Synth finishes aren’t the same true bill as those on dirt.
Actually, Kyle made a good point in his two examples. Still, Dullahan is a very good racehorses.
And, as you suggest, which is something Tony intimated, the top two from the six major preps does make this one helluva Derby year!
Question: Does anybody think that Todd would run El Padrino in the Lexington for graded earnings?
15 Apr 2012 at 01:01 pm | #
Dick,
Just went back to watch replays from yesterday. No wonder the time differential between Oaklawn Hcap and Ark Derby so stark. Multiple stakes winning horse for course Alternation went to the half two full seconds slower! I mean, no wonder…
15 Apr 2012 at 06:22 pm | #
BG Order of Finish: dullaHAN… HANsen...gung HO...HOly Candy.
HanHanHoHo… is my Derby superfecta bet.
Ha. Ha.