The Grade 3 Lexington can provide another Kentucky Derby starter. Bob Baffert has entered Castaway, winner of a division of the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes before setting a pressured pace and getting crushed as the Sunland Derby favorite in a subsequent start.
Baffert said he could run him back in the Derby, or not, for the Coolmore people who probably wouldn’t mind being a part of May Madness, getting a nice view of the proceedings from the fifth floor at Churchill Downs.
Given the way Baffert’s been going lately, winning the biggest race of his life in Dubai three weeks ago, and a couple of other races recently, too, the public is likely to fancy Castaway, the 3-1 early line favorite.
Eleven sophomore races were entered on Wednesday and I do believe only two don’t have much of a chance but six of the 11 have a lot more than a puncher’s chance to win the Lexington, including the race’s sponsor, the aforementioned Coolmore folks.
I sometimes confuse two of the other five: I know Gold Megillah and Morgan’s Guerrilla; just have a dickens of the time remembering which is which. So, as Casey once suggested, I looked it up.
But shouldn’t both names really be combined into one, something like Megillah Guerrilla?
Anyway, Morgan’s Guerrilla (6-1) was second in the G3 Illinois Derby to Done Talking. Yes, I know, they came the final eighth mile very slowly but this guy forced the mid-race action while making a very wide run from post 12: I’m not going to punish him for that.
Besides, today he’s reuniting with the meet’s leading rider, Julien Leparoux, and draws the pole. In three lifetime starts, he’s never taken a backward step on the Equiform scale. Then neither has undefeated [on turf] Summer Front (9-2).
Then there’s Johannesbourbon (8-1) who enters this off a 9-3/4 length maiden win on Turfway Poly, worked a bullet best of 96 among his peer group for the week, and trainer Kellen Gorder is a profitable 26% efficient first-time going long.
The ubiquitous Mr. Pletcher has entered the late developing Holiday Promise (6-1), that’s coming off a lifetime best in his Poly debut in Turfway’s G3 Spiral when second to the same stable’s [Team Valor] Went The Day Well, who already is assured a spot in Derby 138.
And, oh, yes, Gold Megillah, who’s developing nicely, albeit slowly, for Graham Motion and the West Point people. He showed laudably improved energy distribution while finishing third in the Rushaway, his Poly debut. It’s not often you get a 10-1 bid on Team Motion/Velazquez without even asking.
If pressed, it appears Holiday Promise is the right one. He trimming five pounds from his most recent impost, has improved since blinkers, and blazed a half-mile in :47 in preparation.
Frankly, I was surprised to learn that Pletcher is a profitable 26% efficient lifetime on All Weather surfaces and has been hot shipping into Lexington, sporting a (9) 3-2-1 before racing commenced Thursday.
The Jerome is just as difficult, but it figures to likely make more of an impression on the Preakness than the Derby.
The Grade 2 mile attracted seven, including two uncoupled Bafferts, one Pletcher, and an unusual Mike Hushion, in that Hushion’s bringing back The Lumber Guy (5-2) on two weeks rest after setting a runoff pace then a stoutly restrained lead in the Wood Memorial.
Note, however, that in his prior, he overcame a bobbled beginning to win the one-turn 7-furlong Miracle Wood at Laurel, earning the best Equiform figure in the group. He is co-highweight with Adirondack King (12-1) at 120, as they spot the remainder of the field fur pounds.
Baffert’s pair of Brigand (4-1) and Stirred Up (2-1) both have merit, of course, but Pletcher’s Dan and Sheila is a bit too slow. While Term Loan (8-1) comes from a rapidly run mile, it was a two-turn inner-track mile and came vs. maidens.
Right To Vote (5-1) is interesting. Third to Union Rags in the Champagne, a physical issue kept him out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He returned with a hard-fought allowance win at Gulfstream Park in March now tries graded company once again. Eoin Harty is a profitable 21% in second-off-layoff scenarios.
Like The Lumber Guy, Adirondack King (12-1), third in the Southwest two starts back, benefits from today’s conditions. A one-turn mile should suit his style nicely. He’s well positioned outside, posted two sharp works back-to-back for this, and switches to Kendrick Carmouche. Five weeks spacing is ideal and early line odds very tempting.
20 Apr 2012 at 09:30 am | #
Lexington
1-Morgan’s Guerilla (5.35)
7-Castaway (6.62)
6-Holiday Promise (6.82)
Jerome
3-Stirred Up (3.96)
1-The Lumber Guy (5.11)
2-Brigand (7.71)
Happy Saturday.
TTT
20 Apr 2012 at 01:05 pm | #
Who do you like in United States’ longest graded race? Even though the San Juan Capistrano has declined in quality over the last years, it is still one of my favorite races.
20 Apr 2012 at 02:10 pm | #
Wally, I didn’t do the work. Will try to look at it and get back to you. If I don’t then I couldn’t.
Never forget what Mr. Pack said about the race. Talking about Charlie winning it, like 13 times.
“They go round and round until one of Whittingham’s horses is in front then they stop the race.”
20 Apr 2012 at 04:21 pm | #
Speaking of which, John, while we’re at Keeneland… in my files, I found this story about a trainer. Who shall remain unnamed.
(Also, if the subject interests you - is this one of the dullest run-ups to the Derby in a century, or am I mistaken? I long for the Lukas-Baffert sparks flying!)
“April 2003, Keeneland: Tried to speak to him after the end of a race, & waited @ five minutes while he was on his cel phone.
“Momentarily, he couldn’t remember the name of his horse that had just bombed in the previous race. I handed him my program, still opened to that page. He looked at it & continued his yak-yak (he reeked of arrogance).
“I gave up & walked away. It was then I noticed that it hadn’t been a good idea to hand him my program - with the pre-race words “Piece of Junk” prominently written next to the name of his horse.”
20 Apr 2012 at 05:45 pm | #
Don,
Interesting quotes: Think I could probably guess the trainer’s name, but won’t, and have a longshot for the writer, but also won’t guess out loud.
You’re right about lack of trainer fireworks, all the modern TC horsemen have mastered the art of trainer-speak: You know the answer before you can get the question out of your mouth. And if you are on to something that might produce a little spark, they subjects either evade the question or flat-out lie.
But as for the horses; couldn’t disagree more. This is one hell of a 3YO class and all the big horses at one time or another have delivered. I loved this year’s chase.
20 Apr 2012 at 10:52 pm | #
Small clarification; I’m quoted myself (from notes taken at the time). I was the inattentive boob who forgot that he had written “junk” (!)
Large clarification:
1) The trainer’s egotism (at that time) was so pungent (rotten eggs?) that your guess would probably be correct on the first shot.
This particular fellow at a relatively young age won a trainer’s title at a major track, which didn’t exactly encourage the beneficial maturity process.
2) Most people change. Trainers especially; losing 80% of your races, I’ve noticed, at least pays off in the long run (grinds the objectionable traits down like sandpaper on excess grout).
So this fellow (hey, that eliminates Linda Rice, doesn’t it?) very well have changed since then, since I can think of only one trainer who over the years still hasn’t figured it out.
(Also successful early, then slumped back to the claiming ranks, just like the one-time Derby runners now running for tags, with an occasional G2 score & there. About 2 years ago, had a longshot come in 2nd at Saratoga. Next day, he’s striding along with his chest puffed out & shooting his cuffs in the SRC paddock, just like the Good Old Days.)
Horse/Derby Trail: I see your point. What I’m missing are the intense, vocal rivalries between two very good horses/their trainers entered in the 2012 pre-Derby trials that gets resolved once & for all on May 5th.
Say… maybe I’ve over-rated the value of the maturity process, here.
Or: Possibly, those sparks ARE still flying, but we’ve reverted back to the JFK era in that the negative behind-the-scenes stuff is being left on the cutting floor before print (joke).
Time to sign off; must go listen to the Australian racing, whose race callers & guests most definitely DO NOT engage in the “trainer-speak” PR-outhouse marinated BS that we’re subjected to in America & elsewhere.
Months ago, one lively lady behind the mike (they leave them on in between races & broadcast live their conversations with the officials before & after the races) was overheard briefly gossiping about someone who had bumped himself off.
Now, THAT’S transparency.
And somehow, with her disarming candor, she almost made it sound like she was explaining the reasons why the New York Knicks bomb every year.
20 Apr 2012 at 10:56 pm | #
Oops: Make that, “I quoted...”
Imagine that (interviewing myself, I got it wrong).
21 Apr 2012 at 12:35 pm | #
Castaway’s last was too bad to be anything but a throwout. Should benefit from that race at altitude. I’m gonna use Summer Front and Johannesbourbon as well in the multiples.