Three-year-old classics notwithstanding, it is without argument the Race of 2012.
We’re not about to dare compare any of the “Big Four” to previous Met heroes like Tom Fool or Kelso or Forego--not at this point of their careers anyway—but this is one of the more competitive renewals I have seen.
And that goes back to 1961, my first day ever at a Thoroughbred track, Aqueduct by the Sea, when the mighty Kelso spotted a good miler by the name of All Hands 16 pounds and nailed him in deep stretch, sealing my life’s destiny in the process.
One could only hope that when, from the rail out, To Honor And Serve (120 pounds) meets Shackleford (119), and Caleb’s Posse (121), and Jackson Bend (121), the Big Four winner will have won a modern classic.
Almost never have I seen a scenario when a handicapper can make a very strong argument for any of the Big Four to win. Even their best Equiform figures come up as a virtual dead heat.
The Met Mile is the anchor leg of another “Big Four,” an All Stakes $500,000 Guaranteed Pick 4 at Belmont Park featuring four graded stakes, three of them Grade 1.
And don’t allow the small fields to fool you. There’s not a gimme in the sequence, no matter how short the early line favorite’s odds.
On Saturday, we were lucky and prescient enough to provide the HRI faithful with a $584 return on their $50 investment at the 50-Cent level. On Monday, we either will run that total up or give some of the winnings back.
Race 7 G2 Sands Point: With divisional leading Dayatthespa enjoying a break, we’re left with major contenders Somali Lemonade (1-1), Regalo Mia (3-1) and Firehouse Red (6-1). The favorite is the most accomplished, has earned top figures with consistency and is proven over the course.
Regalo Mia has a big late kick that might overcome any perceived lack of pace; totally against the dynamic at Keeneland and trainer Michelle Nihei, having a solid season, reaches out for Javier Castellano. Firehouse Red ships in off career best effort for Team Jones/Rosie; Jones 31% efficient in graded stakes last 72 starters.
Race 8 G1 Ogden Phipps Handicap: (Very good to see there are still some handicaps left!) Awesome Maria (4-5) is just that, returning with good spacing to repeat her 2011 Phipps title.
It’s Tricky (2-1), meanwhile, enters off New Pace Top in 7-furlong G2 Distaff; 3-for-4 at the trip and 1-for-1 over Big Sandy. Loses Roman but Eddie Castro really gets along with this filly. She’s All In (6-1) has come to hand at 5 and is getting 9 and 7 pounds, respectively, from the favorites.
Race 9 G1 Acorn Stakes: Contested (7-5) is 3-for-3 on dirt for Bullet Bob, including G3 Eight Belles at Churchill; boasts final fastest figure and sharp local breeze but draws pole and in this off huge Double Top (pace and final figures).
On Fire Baby (5-2) was victimized by indecisive handling and speed-favoring wet conditions; figures to run late given suitable turnback. Aubby K (3-1) was most impressive winning 3-year-old debut; given recovery time off top figure score and is well drawn but will need to handle significant class and distance rise.
Race 10 G1 Met Mile: To Honor And Serve (3-1) won his Westchester prep with disdainful ease; 3-for-3 at the trip and 2-for-2 at Belmont. Pole position no bargain in this matchup. Shackleford raced very well in both recent starts; maintains top form given recent drill and benefits from switch to Velazquez.
Caleb’s Posse was unlucky in both starts this year, beaten by cleverly handed perfect trip Jackson Bend in G1 Carter; has worked brilliantly for this and expected honest pace can make the difference. Jackson Bend wants to beat you, been training very well at Oklahoma training track but hasn’t proven as effective at Big Sandy.
50-Cent Pick 4 Play: 3, 5, 8 with 2, 3, 4 with 1, 3, 6 with 1, 2, 3 COST $40.50
50-Cent Pick 4 Saver/Optimizer: 3, 5 with 2, 4 with 3, 4 with 1, 2, 3, 6 COST $16


27 May 2012 at 07:38 pm | #
Happy 1st leg of NY Handicap TC(Met Mile), 1st leg of NY Filly TC(Acorn), Mr. Black silks and cherry cap(Ogden Phipps) Day!
This years talent for the Met Mile is strong. I remember the 1990 renewal that had a pretty good big four; Criminal Type, Housebuster, Easy Goer and Black Tie Affair. Criminal Type(Calumet and Da Coach) won the race, then beat Sunday Silence next out for good measure. In fact, he won the Pimlico Special, Met Mile, Hollywood Gold Cup and Whitney consecutively. You’ll never see that again.
In 1982 Conquistador Cielo won the Met Mile(in the winners circle I saw Eddie Maple kiss Woody Stephens), then 5 days later won the Belmont Stakes. You’ll never see that again.
In 1984 Fit To Fight(Rokeby Stables, Mack Miller and Jerry Bailey) won the Met Mile, then the Brooklyn and Suburban to complete the Handicap TC just like Kelso. You’ll never see that again.
Good luck and enjoy the great races at Big Sandy. Lets also remember the brave men and women who gave their life in the armed forces.
27 May 2012 at 08:16 pm | #
MIA here is Mucho Macho Man, my alliterative choice for the Met Mile.
6 horses and 5 of them millionaires. Since earnings are cheapened, I guess weight assignments have to be as well. How can you have a G1 stake in which the highweight is not at least the scale weight for its age?
Racing secretary, Indulto, would assign 126 pounds to both Caleb’s Posse and Jackson Bend, 124 to To Honor and Serve, 123 to Shackelford, 116 to Caixa Electronica, and 106 to Saginaw. My morning line would be:
Caleb’s Posse 9-5
To Honor and Serve 2-1
Jackson Bend 5-1
Shackelford 10-1
Caixa Electronica 20-1
Saginaw 50-1
Saginaw has no chance at the real weights, but would have if spotted 20 lbs by the favorites. That was the kind of horse I would pray for in the days before exotic overload.
Claiming from Dutrow in the race after the Rickster claimed the horse, Jacobsen has arrived as Buddy’s heir.
What the hell, I’ll EXB Jack, Shack, and Sag. Hasn’t New York just been born again?
27 May 2012 at 11:57 pm | #
I,
Think the 3-M folks are still licking their wounds from the Alysheba. As for handicaps, I’m glad that there are still a few left, although the days of real “highweights” are gone forever.
Cat,
Recalling the 1990 Met, I think your Big 4 trumped the current Big 4; good job!
28 May 2012 at 08:20 am | #
I,
How many jockeys if any today could get under 106 lbs? For what it’s worth, no Met winner has carried more than 126 lbs since Czaravich. If say To Honor and Serve won the Met and Brooklyn, the weight for the Suburban would have to be over 130 lbs. Bill Mott would then just laugh and say no thanks.
Preach, Is To Honor and Serve considered a hunch play on Memorial Day?
28 May 2012 at 01:19 pm | #
Cat,
I don’t think you have to add more than a pound (if that) to a winer going up in distance and staying within grade level, just take weight off the others. The Brooklyn is now too close to the Met for a meaningful Hcp TC, and both it and the Suburban are now G2s.
I always thought a list of the minimum riding weight for each jock should be made available to the public. I used to track them myself in the ‘60s and ‘70s from the Daily News charts because I wanted to recognize overweights when handicapping the night before a race.
Also, in those days, overweights in any race seldom won in NY. Pincay drove me nuts when I first moved to So Cal because he could be 3 or more over and still win.
28 May 2012 at 01:52 pm | #
Indulto, I’ve never minded overweights with respect to Jockeys, it’s overweight women I’ve always had an aversion to.
TTT
28 May 2012 at 02:01 pm | #
JP: Good luck with the Met Mile! My utterly nostalgic preference is for Jackson Bend, my old Derby pick, but that is an uninformed and ridiculous opinion.
If you get the Australian racing cards on your at-home system, take a look at the Race 1 Australia “A” card (05/28/12 today. Name of track is not provided).
The almost impossible occurred - it’s an eleven-horse field - and the horses after the post drawings are lined up in alphabetical order!
#1 Amazonia
#2 Asheerah
#3 Aubaine Bel
#4 Belgari
#5 Calmaddi Kristal
#6 Dance Delago
#7 Ebony Eyes
#8 Estada
#9 Swell Girl
#10 Winning Reef
#11 Zulu Princess
The Aussies are great practical jokers. Are we being set up? (!)
Let’s compound the impossible - bet 1-4, 2-5, 3-6, etc. dime supers straight. What are the odds of hitting? No higher than whether or not the above card would have been drawn in alpha order.
My wife thinks it’s a hoax. I reminded her that no trainer voluntarily would agree to having his horse being placed in the one hole in an 11-horse field, even if the race distance is only 6F (which it is).
I’m probably repeating myself, but we went to Arlington Park at the tail end of a two-week trip through southern Wisconsin, Iowa and Chicago Illinois about two weeks ago.
AP makes Belmont Park look like a homeless shelter. What a facility!
28 May 2012 at 02:23 pm | #
I,
Fit To Fight carried 124, 126, 129
Kelso 130, 133, 136 for hdcp TC
If you start at 126 then by history it has to go over 130.
They moved the Brooklyn because the modern horse won’t run that often or carry the weight needed for a competitive handicap TC. The Brooklyn now serves as a double bet with the Belmont and for the BC marathon win and your in.
Your right about Pincay, one of the best ever!
28 May 2012 at 05:04 pm | #
Don,
this happens all the time. Race one is a maiden race for 3YO fillies. The program numbers are listed in alphabetical order since they all carry the same weight. These are not the post positions. If this were a handicap race, the 1 would be the highweight, etc. If more than one horse has the same weight, those horses are assigned program numbers in alphabetical order. When a filly or mare races in an open handicap, they will always be at the bottom since their sex allowance will usually make them the lightweights. Same with younger horses racing against older horses.
Dick
28 May 2012 at 06:29 pm | #
Thanks, Dick. Your extensive details are appreciated.
I’ll assume that when you wrote, “it happens all the time,” that it happens all the time in Australia.
By the way, speaking of numbers being identical, do you see the initial odds for each horse (not the M/L #s) being “99-1”?
Funny how those can actually remain the same long after the track odds have become real numbers and are posted on the Aussie toteboards.
Thanks to the blundering apparatus and I assume the slow human wits at New Jersey Account Wagering, the odds in these races aren’t activated on our computer screens until just a few minutes before the race begins.
Sometimes, as Joe Palmer would say, not even then.
28 May 2012 at 06:32 pm | #
Don, it’s the “blunder down under.”
TTT
28 May 2012 at 07:03 pm | #
Don,
Races are drawn like this all over the world, not just australia. The odds line you quoted is even more complicated. The betting on Australian racing is not commingled thus the pools are rather small. Many tote systems do not begin to display actual win odds until a certain dollar amount is bet into the win pool. On most days, that’s way closer to post time than you would want. Australia does have advance wagering so when I have been there, I always check TapCorp the night before to see where the money is going.
28 May 2012 at 07:11 pm | #
Teddy-best comment ever about having an aversion to overweight women! I work with several girls, and they get so mad when I call them Big Jess, or Big Torie-what up wit dat? T, I’ll be at the Spa Aug 13-15 and would love to meet you in the old guys section. Pricci invited, too.
28 May 2012 at 07:49 pm | #
Dick: Again, thanks for the insights.
You’re right, systems set up so that the odds are only activated after a certain amount of money has been placed in the pool - why? This is crazy!
Who cares HOW MUCH (total) has been bet? It’s what’s in proportion to everything else that indicates the betting trends that we decipher by “reading” live odds.
Teddy, I love any lilting sardonic phrase, but this Rube Goldberg system is solely the responsibility of N.J. Account Wagering, not the Aussies (I know you know that but let’s make it clear to one and all).
*****
Sometimes we don’t quite get the responses that we thought would be “sure fire.”
In Whitewater WI, at the breakfast table of the B&B;(May 8th) were assembled three software engineers (I assume from the vague introductions). Two were from Europe, the other from Australia, employees of a multinational company that has a plant outside the town.
I complimented the Australian about his country’s great racing, & he spontaneously grimiced as if I had wandered cockeyed out of the men’s room & then stepped on the bride’s train as she was going by, during the recent wedding of Queen Elizabeth’s grandson.
Changed the subject.
I’ll never figure that moment out.
28 May 2012 at 10:46 pm | #
I don’t know where the old guys section is. Tell me and I’m there. TTT, I’m putting you in charge of the old guys meeting.
29 May 2012 at 04:39 am | #
JP-The old guys section could be anywhere you want it to be! I didn’t expect that you would be willing to meet us degenerate gamblers, but that would be an honor. Actually, I rechecked my dates-thurs Aug 9 I will be spending with the Chief Lasix Officer doing the 4 hour pre race injections. then I will attend the races Friday, Aug 10 with the sole purpose of picking winners. Would be great to meet you and TTT.
29 May 2012 at 04:41 am | #
And many years ago, I did meet Dick Powell up there, so he would also be welcome. (Dick, I was the vet whose friends owned Dry Martini). Boy we could get a real “Think Tank” going=or would it be a septic tank?!
29 May 2012 at 05:40 am | #
Hot Horse,
Dr. Billy M?
29 May 2012 at 06:52 am | #
Yes, Dick. aka hot horse willie
29 May 2012 at 06:55 am | #
Don, how about “broken in Hoboken or archaic in Pasaic.” Hot Horse, if you’ve spent any time at Saratoga, you probably already have (met me); I’m the loud, arrogant, drunken, opinionated guy, with a woman on each arm and a song in my heart, but I love all God’s creatures, even “old guys.” It certainly will be nice to put faces to the names (things will never be the sames).
Was an advocate for Shackleford yesterday. What a race. Love to see these boys after their 3-year old season. We really miss out when they retire them early now-a-days.
As much as I’d like to see a Triple Crown winner, and am rooting for I’ll Have Another, something tells me Union Rags will have something to say about it, and that is as it should be; he’ll have to earn it. Remember, strange things happen at 12 furlongs.
Will be headed down the Cross Island on the 9th, with a fat wallet and a skinny woman. Happy June and see you at the Spa men.
TTT
29 May 2012 at 07:00 am | #
By the way, the TTT E.Q.U.I.N.E. Ratings are free to anyone who mentions “John Pricci” or “Jesus” in the request.
TTT
29 May 2012 at 07:20 am | #
TTT, I am throwing out Union Rags. I learned from Arazi a few years ago that the best 2 year olds are not the best 3 year olds. And excuses or not, he has shown nothing the last two. Might be a horse to get into trouble again.
29 May 2012 at 09:23 am | #
The Legend,
Haven’t you heard of more cushion for the ...
The Shack is all the way back! What a race, one for the ages! The first Preakness/Met Mile winner since 1962 Carry Back!
You can find me at Saratoga by Hatties Chicken Shack, loading up on the tobasco sauce. I’ll try to lure WMCorrow to attend with a six pack of Schlitz.
and the beat goes on…
Are you gonna take me home tonight?
Oh, down beside that red firelight;
Are you gonna let it all hang out?
Fat bottomed girls,
You make the rockin’ world go round.
29 May 2012 at 03:44 pm | #
IF Mario Gutierrez is the jockey aboard I’ll Have Another in the Belmont Stakes on June 9th, bet the rent that IHA will not win.
Don Reed
(05/29/12)