ELMONT, NY, June 1, 2010--They will run an American classic on Saturday. Happy 142nd Anniversary, Belmont Stakes! The race might not have been an instant classic, even if at one time it pre-dated the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, but it is now.

The inaugural, incidentally, was run at Jerome Park, in 1867, but it didn’t arrive at its current home until 1905, following a stopover at Morris Park--in the Bronx of all places.

Even without the possibility of a Triple Crown winner, or seeing the Derby or Preakness winner, for that matter, Belmont Park will be the place to be this Saturday because 12 furlongs makes this American classic unique.

Belmont Park has been called “the Longchamp of American racing,” as it was fashioned after that great venue in the burbs just outside Paris, so it’s more than appropriate that the race be run at the European classic distance of a mile and a half.

The Belmont will be one of four Grade 1 events, something you don’t often see this side of the Breeders’ Cup. With two Grade 2s to whet the appetite, it’s the kind of day that only New York can still pull off. That’s something, anyway.

Somewhere between 40,000 and 50,000 fans will show up on Long Island this weekend to see classic history made. Hell, that’s even bigger than the crowds they’ve been getting the last couple of Saturdays at Monmouth Park.

But I kid the current state of racing in New York which, sadly, is no laughing matter.

If it weren’t for the state coming up with a $25-million cash advance against future VLT commerce--after having defaulted on its terms of the franchise agreement with the New York Racing Association--major league racing in New York might have been suspended following Saturday’s 13th and final.

Even hallowed Saratoga was in serious trouble, but the emergency measure was passed and so, for now, all’s well that ends.

It is against this backdrop that the curtain will rise on this American original, but after the last car pulls out of the parking lot on Saturday reality will return with a thud, not a pleasant prospect these days at NYRA racetracks.

Before the association can go full bore into Spa mode, it will have to deal with some vexing issues. Beyond the construction of a VLT emporium at Aqueduct, for one thing, what will New York racing look like in 2011 and beyond?

For openers, how many racing dates will it request? It can take the easy way out and request the same number of dates, so as not to force Albany legislators to think and make a decision at the same time.

And let’s not ask the State Racing and Wagering Board to do too much heavy lifting, either. It took years just to allow trifecta wagering in races with coupled entries, as if horseplayers couldn’t be trusted to count to four.

Conducting superfecta wagering with entries must probably still be years away. The SRWB doesn’t give without getting in return. No quid; no pro quo.

The loan, meanwhile, is a very short term fix. The longer term VLT fix won’t pay dividends until mid-2011, at best. And then what? It already has been demonstrated that the edge VLTs provide has two sides. Will VLTs bring long term health? Mostly, that depends on who gets asked.

In the long term, New York racing never will rebound fully in its present construct. VLTs can kick in, New York City-OTB might make significant contributions again, but the continuance of year-round racing will kill any chance New York racing can again be an industry leader.

Given the status quo, inner track handle will continue eroding as world-class racehorses shift to Gulfstream Park and as Tampa Bay Downs continues to gain winter market share. Santa Anita, particularly with a return to dirt, and the Fair Grounds, provide far more attractive fare than anything available at wintry Aqueduct.

As foal crops continue to shrink nationally and in New York--which relies more and more on state-bred runners to fill its programs--offering a product people want to bet on will be New York’s greatest challenge.

The spring and fall meets at Aqueduct are more representative of what New York racing can and should be; Belmont and Saratoga speak for themselves. But the NYRA no longer can allow its winter-track tail to wag this puppy. And now, at least, New York's "winter trainers" have a viable alternative; slots-infused Philadelphia Park.

While it may not be fair to compare the last two weekends in Elmont to the last two in Eatontown, New Jersey, comparisons are inevitable. To date, Monmouth Park has averaged about 9.5 horses per race, compared to New York’s 7.5.

The reason Monmouth Park can offer more to horsemen is because they offer less. They sink all available purse monies into fewer races. At once, the less-is-more model has manufactured excitement and provided a sense of anticipation, as opposed to the same-old, same-old.

As a simulcast player recently compelled to take advantage of living-room punting, more than ever I bet my money where racing is the most interesting, turf racing plentiful, takeouts lower, and where fractional wagering is available.

When it comes to today’s modern customer, I’m the rule, not the exception. I no longer need any one track; I create my own daily wagering menu.

The only major competitive advantage New York has in today’s simulcast market is pool size, where late odds fluctuations are at a minimum. But as the New York product becomes less desirable, even in prime time, that handle will be churned elsewhere.

When racinos didn’t exist in the early days of off-track betting, it made sense for New York to race in winter. Competition was virtually non-existent. For serious players, the point of purchase was still the racetrack. Fields were competitive because winter was the time for journeymen trainers to make their year.

That’s not the case anymore. The biggest outfits still follow the sun, only now they leave behind sizable divisions. The little guy is no better off in January as he is in June.

Eventually, New York will have VLTs to prop up racing year-round, but the quality of the competition will not improve significantly as long as the breeding industry continues to contract.

New York racing’s leaders rightfully can point to the legislature's nine-year failure to designate a racino operator. That’s recent history, not the variety that will be celebrated Saturday at Belmont.

To continue making that kind of history, New York’s future will depend on whether its custodians decide it’s time to stop doing the same things in the same way, expecting a different result.