Back in the day, the granddaddy of all contests was the “World Series of Handicapping” at Penn National Race Course.
The contest was held each fall, its timing corresponding to baseball’s fall classic. In 1986 I remember seeing a baseball go through the legs of poor Bill Buckner. The WSH was a 3-day contest and, for my money, there never has been another like it.
I went 0-for-14 years those weekends at the quaint racetrack nestled in the Blue Mountain foothills.
I haven’t played in many contests over my career but the fact remains I only hit the board once; a Connecticut OTB two-day contest at the New Haven teletheater. I collected a piece of the purse for either a Top 5 or Top 10 finish; can’t remember.
I read that a gentleman named Michael Emanuele won Belmont Park’s 2012 Summer Handicapping Challenge playing in his first-ever handicapping contest. Good for him.
In the final race of the contest, “it came down to two horses,” Emanuele said in a NYRA press release, “and we made the right decision. I got lucky.”
Emanuele, as it turned out, wisely saved his largest wager for the final race on the day at Monmouth Park and made his big bet of the day on a longshot named Black Ana Splash, who won paying $34.
The 3-year-old maiden-claiming filly allowed Emanuele to leapfrog 12 contestants going into the contest’s final race to win the prize and entrance into the DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championship.
While the result was stunning for contest-maiden breaking Emanuele, it was nothing new in the handicapping contest world. Invariably, contests are won on the last day, in the last race, most often when some implausible longshot jumps up and upsets the field.
This is fine, of course, since the idea of playing the races is to end each betting session with a profit. And it wasn’t as if Emanuele wasn’t playing well, ranking 13th of 248 players going into the contest finale.
But let’s call these contests what they are; money management contests that come down to the final race when any player within hailing distance can get lucky and win it all. Just don’t call it a handicapping contest.
Not that handicapping contests should be, necessarily, but they often bear no resemblance to actual betting on horse races.
In the real world of the horseplayer, there’s always tomorrow. In fact without the promise of tomorrow, there would be no horse industry, period. It’s an old racetracker’s line that a trainer would never die if he had a 2-year-old he thought could win next year’s Kentucky Derby.
No serious horseplayer, or a weekend warrior that takes handicapping seriously, would come down to the final race in the midst of having a bad day and tap out on some wild longshot. Horseplayers, even rank and file bettors, know when to fold ‘em.
But not a contest player who’s already paid his entrance fee and has nothing to lose by throwing a Hail Mary bet into the parimutuel end-zone.
Yes, the winning contest player still must choose the right longshot. But picking a longshot is a lot easier when the player has no other choice. He’s not considering any of the top three choices that ordinarily win about 70 percent of the time.
Of the contest formats currently in use, the one that best resembles real world conditions is the live money contest, where you pay an entrance fee but must also commit additional dollars for wagering into your own account. Bettors amassing the largest bankroll win the contest, too.
Betting real money most closely resembles a real world handicapping session when players simply try to assess a horse’s real chance of winning or finishing in-the-money at proper odds.
Just as we believed that the Derby graded-earnings qualifier needed an overhaul, so do handicapping contests. Final race luck should be taken out of the winning handicapping equation, or at least minimized, to reward those handicappers who made good, consistent selections throughout the course of a contest.
I don’t profess to know the answer, but some format that reflects the ability to make profits and pick winners should be put in place.
Perhaps a weighted points system would work, one that takes into account payoffs that fall within a certain price range:
Winning horses paying 8-5 or less could be worth, say, 3 points; from 8-5 to 3-1, 4 points; from 7-2 to 6-1, 5 points; from 6-1 to 10-1, 6 points, with anything over 10-1 worth 9 points.
This way, both consistency and degree of difficulty would be rewarded--but only when the player makes an honest assessment of any horse’s real chances of victory. Good handicapping, the art of picking winners consistently, would matter.
Isn’t trying to pick winners consistently--without going on tilt--what good handicapping and playing the races is all about?


28 Jun 2012 at 12:34 am | #
Ah, this subject, Handicapping Contests, I believe will be foreign to the majority of commentors at this site, as I am inclined to think that they rarely purchase past performances nor wedge themselves into a carrel at an OTB joint.
BTW, the Penn. National was a worthy handicapping contest that never cost you a dime in entrance fees, as all turf writers did not have to pay the entrance fee (Litfin, Finley, et cetera), while us railbirds had to pay entrance fees.
Yes, handicapping contests are tremendously flawed; the winner of the contest is never the guy/gal who selected the most winners, but some bloke who went for broke with his last wager and got lucky; me for example, who with one bet left wagered on the longest shot in a sprint race at
Santa Anita and won ($34.00) moving me into third place, winning $6,000, and a fully paid trip to the
National Handicapping Contest then at MGM in Vegas (so much for my handicapping skills that day).
Most contestants scringe when a long shot wins because without doubt some guy/gal wagered on the long shot. And, as all contestants know, because of the format, they will not win the tournament using the ‘figure’ horses; thus all contestants are really ignoring the favorite and selecting at least a 6-1 choice to have any hope of winning the tournament.
The winner of a handicapping tournament should be the person who picked the most winners, not the one who won the most money. I advocate a point systems also, where the winning horse is worth, say, ten points, a place horse five points, and a show horse two points; this format would certainly bring me back into tournaments along with many other serious ‘cappers (I haven’t entered a handicapping tournament is over ten years, because luck not skill always prevails).
28 Jun 2012 at 04:36 am | #
Agree, John, that the blind stabbers often win in the last race. so I like the “pick and pray” approach offered on horsetourneys.com, since you actually have to handicap and then can’t change your selections after the first contest race starts. Or the format on betptc.com is going well, too.
28 Jun 2012 at 06:42 am | #
Wendell, never thought I’d say this, but you’re a reasonable man. Seriously, I do like the idea of a weighted point system as creativity should be rewarded if you can beat the public’s choice; just like real life wagering.
HH, was unaware, will have to check those sites out. Not sure I’d advocate making ALL selections in advance; defeats the purpose of a live contest; it’ssupposed to be about fun, too, yes?
28 Jun 2012 at 06:47 am | #
The perfect, and I mean perfect, answer to this problem, is to simply multiply the number of winners contestant has selected by the dollar total he has accumulated. Think about it; it will blow your mind. An old granny who gets lucky picking 3 longshots will not beat a seasoned player who has 8 winners; do the math. I’ve been advocating this for years, but nobody listens. Perhaps you, John Pricci, could get somebody to take a look at this. It’s perfect.
TTT
28 Jun 2012 at 06:51 am | #
That’s certainly interesting; I’ll think about this a bit. Meanwhile, watch what you say about my grandmother.
28 Jun 2012 at 07:41 am | #
If the model I proposed above was implemented, you would find the hardcore horseplayers coming out of the woodwork to enter these contests; real men; men who read the Daily Racing Form, and have a lifetime subscription to Bloodhorse and Turf magazines; men who worship Secretariat and make a pilgrimmage to Saratoga each and every year, even if they have to hitch-hike; men who comment on Pricci and who name-drop guys like Nick Kling.
TTT
28 Jun 2012 at 08:19 am | #
Are you aware that NY State will not allow live money contests?
You do point out a flaw in the system. Handicapping contests are finite, known horizon events. Life doesn’t work that way as we don’t know when we hit that horizon. So yes, incentives are going to differ. Not much a way around that though so changing from bankroll (which means something to “real” players) to some complex point system will simply be shifting deck chairs on the Titanic. Same end result, but harder for contestants to follow and judges to tally.
However I find your assessment that it is always someone jumping up with a bomb on the last race that wins completely wrong. As a personal example, I qualified to go to Las Vegas a few years back by hitting chalk in the last race which vaulted me from 7th to 3rd. Had a good, consistant day. The guy that won the NHC this year won on a short priced horse, not a bomb. Same sort of deal.
These contests are fun. If they aren’t for you, then fine, but others really enjoy them and have made many friends all around the country as they go to play. And many, including the one you are talking about give a way for the player to bet horses with 0 takeout as all fees are paid back to the players.
28 Jun 2012 at 08:54 am | #
In reply to a couple of commentators above: I do not subscribe to the Bloodhorse, Thoroughbred Times, or Turf magazines. And, I haven’t made a pilgrimage to Saratoga in decades. Only funerals, weddings, some birthdays, family matters, and illness keep me from my daily journey to the local OTB or racebook, where I wager on Philly, Delaware, Calder, and Finger Lakes. NYRA racing is not on my radar screen, nor any thoughts on Secretariat.
Winners of handicapping tournaments no doubt have used a favorite in the last race, even in the show slot, to solidify their lead that was gained by winning on a few long shots prior to the last race.
The point I believe that is trying to be made is why does money won determine the winner? Why should a contestant who selected the most winners not be the winner of the tournament?
28 Jun 2012 at 09:03 am | #
Most winners has an appeal, but I would think even you could see a flaw in such a system as it would be possible to pick the most winners and still have a negative ROI. Doesn’t much sound like solid handicapping either.
28 Jun 2012 at 09:47 am | #
Welcome back Preach and HRI family!
It’s like “deja vu all over again”. Big tracks vs. small tracks. I know more than you know, yada yada yada.
There is no real best solution to determine the criteria for winning a horseracing contest. Anyone can pick a bunch of winning favorites and anyone can get lucky with a couple of longshots. It’s about having fun and competition, no more no less.
I remember a contest where pool manipulation of a real cash large show bet on a no chance longshot who would finish off the board, helped the contest winner who bet the favorite to show in the contest.
and the beat goes on?
If I had ever been here before I would probably know just what to do
Don’t you?
If I had ever been here before on another time around the wheel
I would probably know just how to deal
With all of you.
And I feel
Like I’ve been here before
Feel
Like I’ve been here before
And you know
It makes me wonder
What’s going on under the ground
Do you know?
Don’t you wonder?
What’s going on down under you.
We have all been here before
We have all been here before
We have all been here before
We have all been here before....
28 Jun 2012 at 10:12 am | #
It is obvious by reading a few of the comments above that my model, as in the past, is being totally ignored. You don’t have to have the most winners using my model, but you better have some winners to go along with that longshot you picked; that is the beauty of it. Let’s make a hypothetical example for those with lower IQ’s, so perhaps they can understand; say a 2-day contest where a contestant was obligated to pick 5 winners each day. Top Turf Teddy picked 6 out of 10, at $9.00, $7.00, $15.00, $4.00, $6.00 and $10.00, for a total of $51.00, that would be multipled times the number of winners, 6, which, where I went to school makes a total of $306.00. WMCorrow picked 3 out of 10 winners, at $50.00 (a wild stab), $10.00, and $8.00, for a total of $68.00, which would be multilied by 3, the number of winners he had, for a total of $204.00, again, where I went to school. Based upon this hypothetical example, who is more likely the best “handicapper,” and won’t this method weed out the pretenders from the real “playas.” No longer will the stabbers be allowed to take home the pesos. Real men will prevail. If you have problems understanding, I’d be happy to go over it again.
TTT
28 Jun 2012 at 10:40 am | #
TTT, with all due respect, based on your model,
say Russ Harris picks 10 winners out of 30 races that pay $3.20 on average, thats $32x10= $320 that beats you. Or Aunt Tilly picks 3 winners out of 30 races that pay $35 on average, thats $105x3= $315 that beats you. Does that make them better handicappers than you? Dig?
28 Jun 2012 at 10:43 am | #
I’m all for “having fun” and “competition.” However, this driveler has no desire to compete to see if I can pick a longer shot than my fellow American, and there is absolutely no fun in that for me. That’s great for those who enjoy that sort of thing.
Just change the name of these things from “Handicapping Contests” to “Pick the Longest Shot Contests,” because that is what it is.
Before some jerk says it, I’ll say it. Yes, I’m just jealous because I’m unable to win one of these “Pick the Longest Shot Contests,” a case of the “Fox and the Sour Grapes.”
TTT
28 Jun 2012 at 10:45 am | #
Cat, yes, based upon your examples, to pick three (3) horses that pay $35.00 shows that you are not a stabber, and are for real. Also, picking all 10 winners with a required 10-race contest, also takes incredible skill, and would and should be rewarded with the win over my 6 out of 10. You proved my point.
TTT
28 Jun 2012 at 11:09 am | #
TTT, most contests are more than one day, you did not say what happenned after day one.
Ok here’s another...If Andy Beyer picks 5 winners out of 10. The prices are $2.10, $2.20, $2.30, $2.40, $53.00 = $62x5= $310 he beats you. Is he better than Big Ted?
28 Jun 2012 at 11:58 am | #
Yes, I would have to say that he was. He backed up his big winner with picking real horses to win, that won.
And yes, I was speaking of a 2-day contest, having to pick 5 winners per day as my hypothetical example.
I very much appreciate you plugging in numbers for the sake of argument, as this needs to be done to determine if the model indeed works. A person should not be artificially penalized by limiting the amount of a large winner, but it needs to be corroborated with other winners; thus the reason my model holds water. Keep in mind that in all likelihood, this Andy Beyer example would probably never win, as that many short price horses rarely, if ever, win within 2 race cards. My method would ensure that persons were striving not only to pick winners, but winners that paid a price, as that is what “handicapping” is all about (in my most unprofessional opinion). The best of both worlds. Respect anybody’s opinion that does not agree with the efficacy of my model, but in a short-term contest, in order to find out who the best handicapper is, the number of winners certainly has to be factored in, as any schmuck or anal orifice can pick a horse that pays big numbers; happens every day. How about this example. Tobasco Cat picks 1 winner that pays $301.00; it is the only winner he has. It was a first time starter who’s father was a goat, and mother a donkey. How he picked it, nobody knows. He multiplies his $301.00 x 1, which after this complex calculation, comes to $301.00. In my estimation he should not win the contest, and Top Turf Teddy, on these 2 days, was the better handicapper. It works for me, no matter what bizzare numbers you try to put in. Thanks for your opinion Cat; interested in what others may have to say about it, and why, and if they think it is a better method than has been used.
TTT
TTT
28 Jun 2012 at 12:00 pm | #
And by the way, Andy Beyer is one of my heros; have his picture on my wall right next to Secretariat and Scooby Doo.
TTT
28 Jun 2012 at 12:23 pm | #
You all do realize this tournement thing has been going on for a while and rules have been tweaked so hitting some super bomb will not result in a winner, right?
Let’s say our player hits that super bomb in one of the very first races at the NHC with the rules proposed. That goes for 2 days and you make 15 plays a day. He gets full pay for that thing and now all he has to do for the rest of the tournement is look for the smallest fields possible and bet chalk every time. Should hit at least 9 more on average which makes his total well over $3000. How many solid 5-1 shots does a player have to find to catch that? Well by my math you need 16. Good luck with that.
This is why there is a maximum odds cap. Stab all you want, you don’t get better than 20-1. You have to have done a good job already to even be in position to make a stab work. Then luck takes a hand just like it does in regular play.
Further, these contests are generally win/place which is further going to confuse the point totals in whatever system you devise. The things work just fine the way they are. Any change is going to alter incentives as I’ve shown above, and likely not in the way you think it would. I find it odd that someone that doesn’t even play these things is complaining. Did a friend of yours call you and tell you how poorly he did?
28 Jun 2012 at 01:01 pm | #
TTT , the Belmont contest had wps bets. You could stock pile low paying safe show bets with a bomb using your model and win. I’m not knocking your idea, just pointing out the subject title MOST HANDICAPPING CONTESTS ARE FLAWED. Even yours. Hey even Shaggy could win these contests.
28 Jun 2012 at 01:35 pm | #
Fun, lively debate, welcome back gents. I might as well get into the act since no one seemed to like a points system based on payout ranges; which can even be figured quickly in a low tech manner.
So here’s another: Win betting only; lower the max. cap to 10-1? If we think that max is too low, consider that, by definition, 10-1 shots win only 9% of the time.
And, Cat, I won’t name that pool manipulator either but, with apologies to Groucho, it’s a common name, seen around the track every day.
28 Jun 2012 at 01:47 pm | #
Maybe HRI should host its own handicapping contest with some of the suggestions above? Raise some dough and do it the right way?
Thoughts?
28 Jun 2012 at 02:29 pm | #
B.O.
I’m all in, but small tracks or big tracks? LOL
28 Jun 2012 at 04:11 pm | #
Pretty funny, Cat.
Brendan, I’ll check out the possibilities; legal issues and such, with the HRI’s majority owner.
28 Jun 2012 at 08:31 pm | #
JP,
Did you awaken a “sleeping giant” or a dwarf named “Sleepy?”
Has the voice of reason finally emerged from our elusive evangelist for the equal evaluation of equine entertainment everywhere, or has the enduring exasperator exhibited yet another reason to eschew the “enlightenment” he espouses?
Indeed Cat posed the “qualifying” question. Would wmc compete in a contest conforming to his concept if the track(s) played were SAR and/or DMR?
I have no contest experience, but IMO a “handicapping” contest should reward a high number of winning selections across a broad spectrum of race types, surfaces, distances, and venues somehow integrated with their payoffs, but not permit picks based solely on price in the final stages. I’d like to see order of finish determined by the total amount returned on hypothetical $10 win parlays involving single selections in each of 9 specific races on a single card over multiple cards, and submitted prior to the first specified race.
An entry fee of $10 could fund prize money for each daily contest while $50 could cover the combined 5-card series. Perhaps some entity could conduct a legal betting pool for 5% of the gross and return 45, 25, 15, and 10 percent to each of the top four finishers, respectively
I’d use the following “Best Days” for the following 5 tracks for a “Summertime Series:”
Haskell Day – 7/29 (MTH)
West Virginia Derby Day – 8/4 (MNR)
Arlington Million Day – 8/18 (2) (AP)
Travers Day - 8/25 (SAR)
Pacific Classic Day – 8/26 (DMR)
A second “Autimn” contest could include:
Woodbine Mile Day – 9/16 (WO) (+7ks2BC)
Pennsylvania Derby Day – 9/22 (PRX) (+6wks2BC)
Jockey Club Gold Cup Day -9/29 (BEL) (+5wks2BC)
Yellow Ribbon Day 9/30 (SA) (+5wks2BC)
Hawthorne Gold Cup Day – 10/6 (HAW) (+4wks2BC)
I’d like to see SA reverse their first 2 days of BC Preps so the top divisions wouldn’t run opposite their counterparts on JCGC day, but the contest would be just as challenging either way.
28 Jun 2012 at 10:04 pm | #
Mr. Indulto,
Play it again Sam!
You should know which end of the horse poops. So how can you not include 4 local OTB joint favorite tracks; Calder, Finger Lakes, Delaware and Penn National(the original contest home of the WSOH).
Call it the “Pabst Blue Ribbon Series”
Smile Sprint HDCP(GRII) Day - 7/7 (Calder)
Delaware HDCP(GRII) Day - 7/21 (Delaware Park)
New York Derby Day - 7/21 (Finger Lakes)
Penn Governors Cup Day - 7/28 (Penn National)
and remember, the BC, TC, Big Red and NYRA are not on everyones radar screen. Also remember your ABC’s always be cashing!
29 Jun 2012 at 12:05 am | #
Mr. Tobasco,
Indeed CRC and DEL would make excellent contest venues, but PEN and FL do not offer the class, surface, and distance ranges MNR does on its best day or the divisions PRM does.
Post Derby Series:
Belmont S. Day - 6/9 (BEL)
Stephen Foster H. – 6/16 (CD)
Cornhusker H. Day - 6/30 (PRM)
Summit of Speed Day – 7/7 (CRC)
Delaware H. Day 7/21 (DEL)
30 Jun 2012 at 03:30 am | #
John, glad to see you’re back “on the air.”
My how diffused the media has become. 1980: NBC is one of the 3 networks. Cardinal Sin: Going off the air (all the ad money has to be returned or free ads created).
One day IT happened. Reaction Time: Instantaneous.
Mulholland The 10-Steak-At-A-Time-Eating-Executive-Type (back then) comes running down the hallway of the 5th floor, on the artificial hollow metal ramps that shielded the miles of transmission wires underneath
(In 1989, at 1 WTC, 49th floor, walked into a new job. Something, an octave of percussion, sounded familiar. I looked down; I was standing on the ramps again, shielding the wires coming out of the trading room in the building’s corner.)
Anyway, Mulholland The Thundering Herd gets into the control room after sounding like a 747 landing.
As Yogi Berra might have said, I can’t remember what happened after that, but it was all unforgettable.
Today: At thousands of web sites, each day, some of them get hit with corrupted files, or for whatever reason (there are many), they silently go off the air.
No Mulholland swearing, no bangs & cursing & airport bams at 30 Rock. Just the unwitnessed, unheard screams of This Brave New World.
*****
I’m in on the handicapping context.
Someone has to come in dead last; someone has to volunteer; goodness, are those two lines vectoring in, approaching intersection, in my great handicapping career, once again?
30 Jun 2012 at 07:51 am | #
Hi Everybody --
My duties at Equiform limit me to a few handicapping tournaments per year. Even so, I have been lucky/good enough to qualify for five of the last seven DRF/NTRA National Handicapping Championships.
Once, I qualified via the $2 WP with 15/1 and 8/1 caps at NYRA. The other four times were in “live” money contests (twice at Fairplex and once at Ellis Park and the Meadowlands).
No format is perfect, or even close to it. First of all, I meaure my performance in real life by the month, not a day or two. For professionals, this game is won in the long run. I’ve even had three losing YEARS over the last two decades. It’s nothing unusual for me to lose 20 bets in a row, as I am usually betting on “value” horse at 4/1 or higher.
While I prefer “live” money contests (as they most closely resemble real-life wagering), they have their flaws also. One decent tri or superfecta could win the whole enchillada on the last race.
My favorite event is the $10,000 Breeders Cup tournament. Of the $10,000, $7500 is your live betting bankroll and $2500 goes to prize money. You must bet at least five races for a minimum of $600 on Friday and a minimum of five races for $900 on Saturday. You can bet WPS, exactas and tris.
The main reason I love this tournament is that players don’t cavalierly bet $900 (or more) of REAL MONEY on “stabs”. Unless they have deep, deep pockets, they have to treat their bets with respect. For the same reason. several top tournament poker players can’t cut it in a cash game.
If the DRF/NTRA want to better measure handicapping profiency, they should run a year long tournament consisting of, say, 10 races per weekend, every week. Each player would be required to make 400 bets over the course of the year. I say 400, because that allows 12 weeks off for those who can’t make it every weekend and also allows contestants to pass certain races (just like real life) if they choose.
Current caps (20/1 and 101) seem reasonable for this suggested WP format. In addition, you could have another prize pool for those who pick the most winners.
Although I like scoring updates throughout contests, you could eliminate a lot of last-race plunging by having no updates at all. Now, nobody knows who has the lead etc.
I could go on and on but, the truth is, there is no perfect handicapping tournament. Each format plays to different strengths, so find the one(s) that suit yours, and get in the game.
Cary Fotias