SARATOGA SPRINGS, NY, July 7, 2010--Mace Siegel, one of the early patrons of thoroughbred racing in Southern California, is much in the news recently.

Foremost, he has an idea to save the game in SoCal. Like all plans that might have a chance to work, he wouldn’t share details with former LA Times sports editor turned columnist, turned racing writer, Bill Dwyre, who broke the news this week.

“I’m going to fix this,” Siegel told Dwyre, and of his intention to put fannies back in the seats at Hollywood Park, turning it into the playground of the stars it once was when Hollywood legends such as Al Jolson, Bing Crosby, Walt Disney, Cary Grant and Fred Astaire put their fannies in Turf Club seats.

Recall that it was Siegel who talked Frank Stronach into giving the Oak Tree Racing Association a new lease on an old life, this anyway. So don’t sell this octogenarian short.

That one intention gives me a rooting interest in Siegel’s Rail Trip, racing in Saturday’s Gold Cup and bidding to become the third horse in history to win multiple runnings of Hollywood’s signature event. The great Native Diver and Lava Man were the others.

But this is about a two year old that recently Siegel purchased after the colt finished third in his Kentucky Oaks-day debut, a maiden coming from far back to finish second in the Grade 3 Kentucky Juvenile Stakes, beaten a scant 1-½ lengths.

According to HRI sources, Boys At Tosconova, named for a restaurant frequented by the original owners who gave $35,000 for him as a September 2009 yearling, was purchased by Siegel, after Rick Dutrow’s green light, for $500,000 for a 75 percent interest. The original owners retained the rest.

In today’s Kentucky Derby market, Siegel could turn around and sell him tomorrow for 10 times that amount, at least, but at 84 he has all the money he can spend. And Derby Fever can be a particularly virulent strain.

In his first start for Dutrow last Friday at Belmont Park, Boys At Tosconova broke his maiden--in spades. But don’t take my word. Here is a copy of the Equibase chart footnotes, where seldom is heard a hyperbolic word:

“Boys At Tosconova, away in good order, accelerated suddenly after entering the turn, splitting rivals en route to grabbing the front, lengthened the advantage at every call, without working up a sweat [italics mine], then cruised on to the finish line, a handy winner.”

The timer stopped at :56.26 as Boys At Tosconova finished first by an even dozen, after posting splits of :22.35 and :44.48. “I gave him a 78 final figure and a pace number of 87,” said Equiform Data’s Cary Fotias.

“I know it’s only five furlongs, but that’s the fastest number I’ve ever given a two year old this early in the year, and I’ve been making numbers since 1992.”

Some historical perspective, using the Equiform scale.

Chilukki, the sensational fast Bob Baffert-trained filly, eventually a graded stakes winner, earned a 77-½. Very fast, indeed.

The underappreciated Grade 1 winning Formal Gold came out running a 77 with an 84 pace figure. And he debuted as a three year old. In his next start, he returned with a 78-76 compression line (the pace number is generally written first).

A “compression line” is any debut figure where the pace and final figures are within four points of each other, in either direction.

In a perfect world, a compression line indicates two things; both of which are positive. A compressed figure can indicate that no matter how high a figure a horse earns, it is less likely to bounce because the distributed his energy in an efficient manner.

Further, it can be a sign that a horse is suited by style to handle added distance. That’s not a given, but empirically it has proven to be a very dependable barometer when coupled with pedigree, company, and other traditional handicapping variables.

To further illustrate, Curlin debuted in February of his three year old year and ran a 78-76-½ compression. His second start showed two more favorable patterns.

In start number two, Curlin ran a 68-75, a “reversal,” as he distributed his energy later in the race, indicating that he is likely to improve at longer distances.

The victory was also a “soft win,” this pattern indicating that he didn’t need to exert the same energy as he did in his previous start, meaning that could be more in the tank for start number three.

For Curlin, that was his visually impressive victory in the Arkansas Derby, in which he ran a 78-½ final figure. In most years, an 80 will win the Kentucky Derby.

Remember Smarty Jones? He ran an 87-72 winning his debut, then returned with an 87-77 in start two. Of course, he debuted as a fall two year old.

Dutrow is already talking up a campaign that works backwards from the 2011 Kentucky Derby, promising not to over-race the colt this year.

While it’s fashionable to skip the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with a “Derby horse,” an exception might be made this year because the Juvenile is run over the Derby track.

In all probability, this colt will race only once at Saratoga. But as promising as his victory was, he will need to be all that if he runs into a colt named Kantharos. [Check the video of his 9-½ romp in Churchill’s G3 Bashford Manor. His Equiform figure was unavailable as of this post].

Said Fotias: “Boys At Tosconova is by Officer. I’m not sure about the Derby, but I do know he’s my early favorite to win the Met Mile.” Stay tuned.