Remember, prior results do not guarantee future outcomes:
SEVENTH RACE: Claiming $20,000, 1 1/16th Miles, Inner Turf Course
All races are on turf with a 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms; making a treacherous sequence even more dubious. We cannot find a single we completely trust.
We left five horses in the mix; two are preferred. 1-Classic R & B (4-1 ML) returns to his winning $20,000 level for Gary Gullo, having a breakout season and is 26% profitable with one-class droppers. Young gelding with speed benefits from switch to speed-favoring inner surface, gets pole position, and Ortiz and Gullo hooked up successfully last weekend.
8-Monastir (5-2) might lack winning profile but form and energy figures have improved since the Servis claim; trainer is profitable in two categories, batting 25% on turf and 33% with claimers. Cornelio gets along nicely with 5YO gelding.
Sub tickets will include 3-Plainview (3-1), a winner at this level with Lezcano on the re-ride; 9-Quick Recovery (15-1), adding blinkers for 3rd start since claim for 20% trainer this scenario, and 10-Launch N Relaunch (12-1) is longer, uncoupled Gullo circling back to top.
EIGHTH: Grade 1 Man o’ War, 1 3/8th Miles, Widener Turf
Five open possibilities, keying on three: 5-Treasure Beach (9-5) is multiple Group 1 winner for O’Brien, including 2011 Secretariat, is co-fastest on energy figures and stalking style suits race shape. Likely overbet but looms most probable winner with recent regular partner, Jamie Spencer.
3-Point Of Entry (5-2), co-fastest, benefits from good spacing, owns sharp blowout around dogs; Shug is profitable 21% efficient in graded stakes and still developing 4-year-old hails from key G2 Elkhorn (3/5).
7-Hudson Steele (5-1) 5YO gelding keeps improving for Pletcher, held very well pacesetting in G1 Manhattan and switches to Bravo; may get preferable target this matchup.
Subs: 2-Center Divider (10-1) is training on schedule and very well for Chad Brown; tactical speed and inside draw helps as does switch to Rosie. 4-Newsdad (4-1) returns for hot Mott/Alvarado team, also out of Keeneland’s Elkhorn but must prove he’s same runner away from Gulfstream Park.
NINTH: Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Inner Turf
Wide open scramble; considering six possibilities, earmarking three: 4-Fear Nothing (7-2) is realistically placed vs. limited winners following tough-trip maiden score; style suits race shape, drawn inside with Castro, energy figure among field’s fastest sprinting on turf.
6-Leroidessanimeaux (5-1) has improved sprinting since (underrated-turf) Chatterpaul claim, also spotted properly off elevated maiden win; exits fast dirt sprint and never has taken backward step on turf.
8-Brown Indian (3-1) drops significantly for worthy second-off-layup connections sporting strong July 9 blowout--2/21 vs. peer group that week termed breezing; Espinoza more than capable on grass.
9-Trouble In Dodge (5-1) tries limited winners in turf debut with suitable pedigree for live Orseno outfit effective with third-off-layup runners. 12-Top Yank (12-1) makes 5YO debut for barn effective with first-time
acquisitions on preferred Belmont green; seems well meant. 2-Luigi P. (15-1), off series of wide trips, drops to proper level with inside draw; lacks winning profile but price shot can finish with patient handling.
TENTH: New York-Bred Maiden Allowances, 7 Furlongs, Widener Turf
Five possibilities, three likely suspects: 1-Riverdance Rock (3-1) finished well too late in open class Monmouth claiming debut; first time state-breds here for 18% second-out connections with apprentice Coa, who’s doing good work at the Shore track.
7-Shy Humor (7-2) went very well in three open claimers recently, including similar scenario game, tough-trip placing last out, now tries state-breds switching to Lezcano; Belmont’s hottest rider this side of Dominguez.
5-Prime Devil (10-1) debuts for Romans with suitable pedigree and picks up turf ace Bravo in what appears a likely spot.
6-Lord Of Love (30-1) went well in lone turf-sprint start at 2 now returns with series of strong works for Hertler, more than capable with returnees, and picks up live apprentice Jose Ortiz. 4-All Stirred Up (9-2) has improved noticeably off barn change to Lakeman; in close with run deep stretch last out and attracts Rosie.
*MAIN TRACK ONLY: 16-Readthebyline (5-2)
14 Jul 2012 at 11:59 am | #
I wish the ‘game’ were this easy: want traveling money, wager on a pick four so you write. Your investment is apparently going to be $62.50 (5x3x3x3).
The absolute worst wager in Thoroughbred racing is the pick six, then the pick five, then the pick four; how many of these wagers have your readers won? How many have they lost? Are they profitable overall?
In reading your analysis, you write that there are five possibilities in the 7th, five in the 8th, six in the 9th, and five in the 10th; this admission alone should make it clear that the pick four wager is an extremely difficult bet to win.
I suggest the $62.50 be used on rolling doubles. You will have nine wagers, if $6 is the starting wager. When a double is won, double the wager.
You will be involved in the entire race card for the entire day and may win enough money to cover the bar bill, or even a day of racing on maiden
allowance horses at Saratoga.
I do hope the pick four is won with your selections, but I don’t like the odds, nor the fact that handicapping skills are basically tossed and a scatter gun is used. I remember the day when horseplayers used their learned handicapping skills to make one selection per race; today, those same skills are used like a fish net to come up with five or six plodders per race. It is apparent to me that the exotic wagering menu has caused ‘cappers to misuse their skills as they seek the life changing ‘big one’.
Ah, the ole days, when I would put $200 on the nose on a plug and feel the ticket getting moist in my hand as they came down the stretch - never did I hear “who got second, who came in third”.
14 Jul 2012 at 02:05 pm | #
WMC, I do believe that I’ve done a Pick 4 five times in this space--I keep a strict daily tally of the Feature Race Analysis; still profitable after five YEARS, BTW--and have won two; one paid I think a little more than $500.
(If there’s anybody out there who remembers this, or anything about my P4 picks in general, please share.
Besides, Wendell, as we stated right at the top, “prior results do not guarantee future outcomes.” I wrote that tongue-in-cheek, thanks to you it now has a practical application.
But, hey, give me a break, will ya’? Just play the two claiming races.
JP
P.S. Who do you like in the Delaware Oaks?
14 Jul 2012 at 02:13 pm | #
P.P.S.
In a certain context, I long for those days, too, when the daily double was the daily double and only “exotic” bet. But the people have spoken; 80% of the play is in multiple pools these days.
Wonder why there’s no liquidity in the straight pools?
Being facetious, of course. But it just dawned on me. If about 4 of every 5 dollars are bet in the multiples, why not roll back the takeout on straight wagers to 10% How much could that cost in the short term--until the long term effects of increased churn kicks in?
Never happen, of course, makes too much sense.
14 Jul 2012 at 02:43 pm | #
JRP,
I’m shocked, SHOCKED to report for once Wendell isn’t completely wrong, although he may not realize it.
That 80% of handle in the multiple pools means that overlays can and do exist in the win pool. That’s the reason we hear people frequently say they got “robbed” when the exactas, triple, et al, pay less than they expected.
The exacta & triple pools were “right.” It was the win pool which was “wrong” creating the overlay.
So bet away Wendell and we can all sing “Kumbaya.”
14 Jul 2012 at 03:09 pm | #
The win pool is still the largest pool, even though Mr. Crist refers wagering to win as Grandma’s wager; he no doubt is getting ready to launch his campaign on the pick six at Saratoga. To play along with his selections you are going to need from $800 to $3,000 per day.
Yea, the win pool does enjoy overlays, which I appreciate Mr. Kling. The win, double, and pick three are my wagers, in decending amounts wagered.
Can’t help you, Mr. Pricci, with the Delaware Oaks,
as I am sidelined until at least Monday. Had an eye lid operation which has closed my right eye substantial due to swelling - this will be the longest streak of missed days at the OTB in years.
Should have more time now to find fault with HRI
contributors and commentators.
14 Jul 2012 at 03:23 pm | #
Preach, Play it again, Sam!
Yes you hit a pick 4 for $500+ and are way ahead in printed selections.
The pick 4 is absolutely the best bet out there at the track. It pays on the average, double of what the parlay would pay. The takeout rate is applied only once as oppose to a parlay. The fifty cent minimum also keeps the little guy in the game longer. Hey if you stay alive through the legs, you don’t have to bet(free entertainment), or you have the option to hedge.
and the beat goes on?
On a warm summer’s eve
On a train bound for nowhere
I met up with the gambler
We were both too tired to sleep
So we took turns a-starin’
Out the window at the darkness
The boredom overtook us, and he began to speak
He said, “Son, I’ve made my life
Out of readin’ people’s faces
Knowin’ what the cards were
By the way they held their eyes
So if you don’t mind my sayin’
I can see you’re out of aces
For a taste of your whiskey
I’ll give you some advice”
So I handed him my bottle
And he drank down my last swallow
Then he bummed a cigarette
And asked me for a light
And the night got deathly quiet
And his faced lost all expression
He said, “If you’re gonna play the game, boy
You gotta learn to play it right
You’ve got to know when to hold ‘em
Know when to fold ‘em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run
You never count your money
When you’re sittin’ at the table
There’ll be time enough for countin’
When the dealin’s done…
14 Jul 2012 at 03:37 pm | #
Cat, thanks for the refresher, I thought so, just too many bets, so little time.
WMC, ouldn’t know what to do for angst without ya’. Gwt back on the mend real soon.
14 Jul 2012 at 07:12 pm | #
I’ll be playing along as I’m stuck home today.
Agree with Cat 100% with regards to P4’s. In particular I like to hedge when alive. I use Doubles or P3’s to cover myself and increase exposure at times.
WMC - you’ll have to take my word for it, but, I am profitable for the year on P4’s. As a matter of fact, if Paynter had hold on in The Belmont, I’d be WAY profitable.
JP - my one disagreement in the Man O War is I like Newsdad equal to or even slightly better than Hudson Steele, and don’t like Center Divider as much but will hedge.
14 Jul 2012 at 10:22 pm | #
The question becomes, what is the best bet? Is it win bets, place bets, show bets, or exotic bets?
I’m not sure. Starting back in 1960 the wagering menu was w/p/s bets only along with the doubles, and I seemed to be going nowhere financially. Win one day, lose the next. So, why did I continue to follow the ponies? The primary reason from 1960 to 1994 was that I wasn’t going broke, was basically winning enough to cover expenses, and was getting away from the wife and kids, after working a challenging week. Good therapy for me, concurred by my wife (maybe she wanted to get rid of me for a day).
When the pick three came into existence, I think in the mid-nineties, things improved quite a bit financially. The pick three was picking the winners, no dealing with place and show. I had been trying to pick winners for decades, not concerned with what nag ran second.
The pick four changes things dramatically; exponentially is the word. Odds of winning drop dramatically and the cost of purchasing tickets increase substantially.
Is the pick four a worthy wager? Not in my opinion, but you will never convince a horseplayer who has ‘hit’ a pick four. Nor a horseplayer who has won the pick five or pick six. Nor a bloke who won the Powerball.
But, it is money we all are required to use if we wish to wager on the ponies. For the novice or casual player, the exotics probably are the way to go; what to hell, bet a few buck, win or lose, see you next year.
For the serious gambler, who wagers every day, which I am, survival in this ‘game’ will not allow you to chase exotic wagers beyond the pick three.
IMO exacts and trifectas are simply dumb bets.
Also, IMO, any wager that calls for place and show placing nulifies what serious ‘cappers have learned; one doesn’t handicap for a horse to finish second or third, that is also stupid.
So, what is the best wager? I dunno. To me it is picking a horse in a race that could win, not run second or third. Thus, I rely on learned handicapping skills, wager win, doubles, and pick threes, and cross my fingers.
Exotic wagers have caused handicappers to abandon their skills and patience, and to shoot for the ‘big one’. Exotic wagers, again IMO, have caused horseplayers to go broke faster.
Now, when I stand behind a horseplayer at the OTB, I watch as the ‘all’ button is worked, as the wager is 50 cents or a dime. My win wager at the self-service machine is an anomaly. Yet, I seem to be the only one consistently at the OTB day-in and day-out.
Now, you readers at HRI. Do you keep records? Did you make money last year? Are you winning this year?
And the beat goes on .....
15 Jul 2012 at 12:27 am | #
have the 104.50 pick3
need 2 4 5 or 7 for pick4
thanks JP
ps - left out your ls 6, but did put a win bet just in case
15 Jul 2012 at 12:57 am | #
Thank You JP
$522 pick 4
and you nailed the super too, I hope!
DM
what do you say to that wmcorrow?
15 Jul 2012 at 06:26 am | #
You’re entirely welcome Denny, the pleasure was mine. Got it done with the Sub-1. After the scratch of #1, we moved Rosie up to top row.
Would have preferred #7 in the finale to win for Super purposes, but did get a couple of dimes worth. Can’t believe the price; remarkable!
15 Jul 2012 at 12:38 pm | #
So, your investment in the pick four was not $62.50, but $250 (5x5x6x4).
15 Jul 2012 at 01:07 pm | #
Math error! 5x5x6x4 = 600. Your investment in the pick four was $300 as I read you above article.
15 Jul 2012 at 01:28 pm | #
Interesting subject that your pick 4 selections turned into. Certainly, the level of difficulty increases with the multiple race wagers, but for those able to prognosticate a horse at a long price in the sequence, the rewards far outweigh the difficulty. This game can be beaten in any slot, show, place, win, exacta, double, trifecta, quinella, superfecta, pick 3, pick 4, pick 5, pick 6, show place 9, double trifecta; what is difficult is finding a guy who is doing it. They are usually hiding from the IRS, and living in a seedy hotel on Route 9.
15 Jul 2012 at 01:37 pm | #
#11: The pick four paid $522 for a two dollar ticket, and $130.50 for a fifty-cent ticket. If I follow Mr. Pricci’s selections correctly, the investment was $300, thus a loss was incurred of $169.50.
15 Jul 2012 at 04:48 pm | #
wmc,
I didn’t put in one big ticket. Instead I put in three seperate tickets.
I left out a few of JP’s selections from the pick 4 to reduce cost and only used them as hedges in doubles. I also bet a couple of pick 3’s (note comment #10).
Also I doubled up on Point Of Entry in race 8, as he was my personal top pick.
Total invested in pick 4 was $84 - payoff was $261
DM