Well, if you want to have some fun, share your insights and learn from an array of successful handicapping practitioners and authors at every level, I have two words for you: Las Vegas!
And, wouldn’t you know, just in time for Breeders’ Cup.
For the uninitiated, I’ve given seminars just about everywhere: at Siro’s in Saratoga for Daily Racing Form, as a panelist at the very first Handicapping Expo hosted by Jim Quinn when I was a handicapper/columnist for Newsday, and as a co-host on Harvey Pack’s replay and magazine shows, “Thoroughbred Action” and “Inside Racing.”
And, as they say, when you’re the first you’re the best. No, not me. The reference is to Harvey “Never-Ask-A-Horse-To-Do-What-It’s-Never-Done-Before-As-The-Favorite” Pack, the original, brilliant, self-deprecating curmudgeonly handicapping megalomaniac who introduced the replay show to the racing world.
In that role, Pack was peerless, then and now.
I fancied myself as one of the originators of the term “trip handicapper.” I still do. In fact, it was my stock and trade in those early days at Newsday where in my first column, as race watcher “par excellence,” I boldly predicted a week before the 1977 Kentucky Derby that Seattle Slew would become the first undefeated Triple Crown winner in racing history.
In retrospect, my prescience was an exercise in idiocy: I had no idea what was involved in pulling off such a feat. In my own defense, I was young and, up to that point, I don’t ever remember having made a mistake.
But I’ve been humbled since those early days because as Newsday’s public handicapper I got tired of getting whipped meet after meet by Russ Harris of the New York Daily News. Invariably, my ROI was higher than his at every meet but I could never pick as many winners.
Harris was a great practitioner of speed handicapping--remember Coastal?--and I knew I had to join him if I ever was to beat him.
So I learned how to make speed figures using the Par Times methodology of the brilliant Dr. William Quirin.
And that’s when I began to realize, given the handicapping explosion due to the popular contributions of Andrew Beyer and Steve Davidowitz, that while specialization was extremely important, a well-rounded handicapping arsenal was the real way, truth and the light.
While at Newsday I picked enough winners to keep the wolf away from my door and have done so throughout my career, but I was not even close to the horseplayer that I’ve evolved into today.
That came only after I realized what it took to be successful at this art-science and developed a new handicapping credo: Grow or die.
And so, while I will be a lecturer at the Speed and Pace Symposium in Las Vegas on October 18 through October 20, I will also be a student, seeking out new methodologies and angles so that I can keep pace with the latest innovations in an attempt to stay ahead of the curve in today’s highly competitive handicapping environment.
The organizers at the Speed and Pace Symposium seem to have thought of everything in the way of illuminating handicapping methodology, data-mining techniques, and an intelligent approach to wagering with speakers prepared to provide their insights-- whatever an attendee’s level of expertise.
Speakers include Ed Bain, whose extensive research has made him the preeminent authority on trainer patterns; Ted Craven, professional handicapper and expert practitioner of the Sartin Methodology; Frank DiTondo, professional handicapper and best-selling author; Jeff Dunn, professional handicapper and developer of handicapping software for Smart phones and iPads; Cary Fotias, professional gambler and acclaimed author who’s taken sheet-style figures to the next level with innovative energy distribution concepts and patterns; successful professional handicappers George Kaywood and Craig Peterson, program director at Hollywood Park; Bob Pitlak, author and handicapping software developer; Dave Schwartz, successful handicapping software developer and David Siegel, CEO and President of Trackmaster.
There is much I can learn from these gentlemen and am looking forward to the experience.
This three-day handicapping convention begins with a four-hour meet-n-greet cocktail hour beginning at 5pm Thursday on Oct., 18. The Friday and Saturday sessions will be jammed with activities.
Beginning at 8 a.m. on both days, one of the professional handicappers will analyze the card from Belmont Park and Santa Anita, each presentation lasting one hour until 10 a.m.
Interactive Informational Presentations will then begin at 10:00am and continue through 6:30pm. Each presenter will speak for approximately 45 minutes followed by a 15-minute Q & A. At 1 pm, a break for lunch.
There will be three more presentations in which speakers lecture for a one-hour duration in the afternoon, with the same 45 minute talk--15 minute Q & A format. That day’s session ends and attendees are free to do whatever they wish until the program renews the next morning.
Arrangements have been made for Fotias to give away several copies of “Blinkers Off” and DiTondo will give every attendee a copy of his “One Minute Handicapper” workbook.
I am working with Brisnet.com to distribute free copies of the Friday Pick 4 from Keeneland and the Late Pick 4 on Saturday at Belmont Park. Further, I have agreed to explain and demonstrate what variables I use to make selections and the best wagering strategies for playing the races that day or any future wagering session.
Many of us have spent the past two weeks watching two national political conventions in advance of what is surely the most important election of our lifetime to determine what kind of country we want our children to live in.
For the horseplayer, whether he/she is a weekend warrior or wants to immerse themselves at some deeper level, the Speed and Pace Symposium is a convention where players can decide what kind of handicapping and wagering future they want for themselves.
On the weekend of Oct. 18-20, what happens in Vegas doesn’t have to stay there. That’s for you to decide. For more information, as they say, click on http://www.speedandpacesymposium.com.


07 Sep 2012 at 02:28 pm | #
JRP,
Don’t take this as criticism of the symposium, as it sounds impressive. However, I have two thoughts.
1) I’m sure there are other cutting edge handicappers not on the panel, but one glaring omission is Charlie Judge. The Track Judge has concepts that provide wager value hidden from typical handicapping methodologies.
2) Most of us can pick an occasional winner. What most players really need is more wagering education. The successful bettors I know are good handicappers, but every one is an expert at crafting wagers and knowing how to gamble.
Using one of my own humbling experiences, here is an example. Several years ago a friend of mine and I were in a handicapping contest in which the winner was determined by money outcome. My friend was a self-acknowledged mediocre handicapper, so he asked if he could use my picks for the day. He did, and won the contest. I finished down the list.
07 Sep 2012 at 03:39 pm | #
Ah, handicapping! What I do every day of the week.
Now completing my fifty-fourth year of trying to pick winners, I still must accept the fact that I am perhaps only a slightly better ‘capper than in 1958.
Years ago an ole sage told me to never quit my day job; that advice is apparently followed by all turf writers and public handicappers, as they all have kept their day job. Come to think of it, I do not know of anyone who relies solely on earnings from wagering on the ponies. Me, I am merely trying to cover the bar bill daily along with discussing/solving the world’s problems with a group of sharpies who prefer claiming races to stake races.
Does a handicapping system exist that is more accurate than merely playing the jockey, trainer, or current tote board favorite? Maybe, for one day!
Systems: Speed, Trip, Pace, Horses in trouble in last, trainer patterns, jockey up, closers, front runners, weight, distance, fast vs wet, class, stake vs claimer, equipment, shoes, and sheet-style (what ever that is); IMO these systems do not counter other issues that dominate: stumbled, blocked, carried wide, rushed, squeezed, slow pace, fast pace, mud, heat, cold, et cetera, along with the horse simply not interested today in running.
My system is what nag has the class edge, has four legs, appeared fit in last, has a good jock up, and a trainer that knows where the winner’s circle is (and there are usually two or three plugs in each race that I must separate).
Mr. Kling: from your comment above, you apparently know several people who are successful bettors, good handicappers, experts at crafting wagers, and know how to gamble; have they quit their day job?
--------
How many of you readers out there came out financially ahead after wagering on the Saratoga meet? I know of only one: me! Made only one wager all meet, and it paid off very nicely. All the other gamblers who made money must be at the local OTB joint I patronize, as every there I asked said they made money.
One person who didn’t was Steven Crist, a fine person, who puts his money where his mouth is and publicly notifies all readers at his blog the horses he is wagering on, the type of wagers being made, and the money involved. Mr. Crist is number one handicapper in my book!
07 Sep 2012 at 03:50 pm | #
Nick, agree that Charlie Judge would be a great addition to the symposium. However, I did not put this field together and perhaps Charlie was asked and declined; I don’t know.
If it’s not too late and the organizers read this, who knows? I will mention this the next time I’m contacted. Thanks.
07 Sep 2012 at 04:08 pm | #
Preach, enjoy your Las Vegas trip!
WMC, nobody gambling on the horses makes a living that can feed a family and pay the mortgage, taxes, health insurance, car bills etc. It simply can not be done with the takeout rates, no matter how much of an edge you may have with your “super” systems. In all due respect to Mr. Pricci, Fotias, Beyer, Crist etc. they would not be selling their secrets or writing books if they would be able to make a decent living just on betting the horses. Steven Crist even said on a DRF night school session that only about 3% make a decent living betting on the horses because they got a rebate big enough to cover takeout. He said in his experience there was too much pressure to make a living just betting when he was not working for DRF or the NY Times.
07 Sep 2012 at 04:38 pm | #
John, I always loved the way you handicapped. I remember you at Saratoga with Harvey and I also enjoyed you in Florida (Hialeah?). I would definitely buy any handicapping book you would write.
Personally, I went off the handicapping cliff at Saratoga this year. Before that I was having the best year profit-wise ever.
I use Formulator and BRIS, watch tons of replays, check turf pedigrees carefully and use other angles as well. At Gulfstream, I felt I could sweep the card every day. At Saratoga I could hardly string two wins together. I am a horizontal player.
John, do you have any insights about this past Saratoga meet?
07 Sep 2012 at 08:30 pm | #
Cat, In the early 70s, I was forced to play the horses for a living and managed to eke out a profit over two years. But if it weren’t for my wife’s working, not all the bills would have been paid.
The pressure, as Mr. Crist says, is enormous. You need a tremendous bankroll in relation to wagers, $100 for each dollar wagered so as not to get caught up in a “scared money” trap. It CAN be done but it’s EXTREMELY difficult.
Sal, the Saratoga races were extremely difficult, a combination of manyt ordinary horses and race conditions that opened up the races to so many different types of runners that matching up horses in the same race was very difficult: That’s why good performance figures are an imperative.
I prefer vertical pools, if I could only play one way, but because of my partnership with BRIS on a P4 product, I was able to expand my betting horizons.
Finding singles, of course, is a necessity and the rest of it requires a survive and advance philosophy. But sometimes, it’s also more prudent to single in an impossible race if you can’t afford to buy the entire rack. It’s a tough slog.
I hit enough supers and P4s to make a few dollars at the Spa but in the overall, the results were very disappointing. The toughest obstacle of all?
Focus! And, after bankroll, the most important element, IMO. Race days were entirely too long in Saratoga. You get tired; you get sloppy. Even when you tell yourself to focus, fatigue makes dummies of us all.
07 Sep 2012 at 09:04 pm | #
John, I lost my focus because I lost my confidence. That rarely happens to me because I usually feel my handicapping is basically good. It wasn’t at Saratoga this year.
John, you mentioned good performance figures. Did you have something in mind?
07 Sep 2012 at 09:51 pm | #
Sal, a little surprised you’re unaware but the Equiform energy figures are, to me, the Sheet-style numbers on steroids. I’ve been using them for, not sure, about eight years? They are not inexpensive but if your handle is anywhere in the neightborhood of $500 per track, per session, it’s worth the investment. Try http://www.equiform.com; tell Cary [Fotias] that HRI sent you.
07 Sep 2012 at 10:40 pm | #
According to a comment appearing above, Steven Crist said that only 3% of bettors, or is it gamblers, are profitable. I agree. So then, it is not unreasonable to conclude that there is no such thing as a handicapping system that will propel a lowlife, such as me, into la la land - ya know, a yacht, a cottage on the North Carolina outer banks, with a trophy wife/girl friend preparing drinks as the sun sets.
According to Mr. Pricci’s comment, ‘the Saratoga races were extremely difficult’, I have been thinking (ya, it hurts). Why does one wager on Saratoga races if they are so difficult, when there is racing at numerous racetracks across the country on the same day? Then, I concluded that the so-called ‘quality’ racing at Saratoga does nothing for one’s wallet; that the lowly claiming races at other racetracks offer better chances of cashing a ticket. Am only going by empirical evidence readers.
And, if you readers want to go broke faster than
the Red Sox’s are fading, then bet on the supers and pick fours (the twenty-cent supers, right John Galt? Indulto? Who are these guys?).
And the beat goes on, year after year, same ol’ same ol’.
08 Sep 2012 at 12:31 am | #
John,
Since you were employed by BRIS this year, what is your opinion of their pace and speed figures?
I’m considering using them intead of DRF. Equiform is, unfortunately, out of my price range.
---
Didn’t know the Sartin Methodology was alive and well. Any opinion on that?
Den
08 Sep 2012 at 12:55 am | #
Den, never really warmed up to the Sartin Method, and I use BRIS data because I think it’s superior.
For the record, I’m not employed by BRIS, I’m a free agent. We partnered on a Pick 4 product that began at Saratoga and will continue on weekends at Belmont.
We have plans to cover Pick 4 Fridays at Keeneland later this fall, the Breeders’ Cup, of course, and we’re in discussions re Gulfstream in 2013. I’ll keep you up to speed on that. Thanks.
08 Sep 2012 at 02:09 am | #
JP,
Think I’ll give BRIS a shot. Only thing is what to do about the Euros?
Did Cary do figs for Dullahan in the PC? I’m guessing they were a lot better than Alpha.
Den
08 Sep 2012 at 02:07 pm | #
Yes he did re Dullahan but I’ll catch up with that one when he runs next. For foreign horses, we go to our Euro go-to guy, Nick Mordin. We never go to the BC without his input.
08 Sep 2012 at 02:57 pm | #
“I’m standing in the middle of the desert
Waiting for my ship to come in”
Best song line about Las Vegas.
08 Sep 2012 at 03:24 pm | #
John, the pricing seems steep for me.
Denny, Beyers SF seem better than BRIS for dirt sprints. BRIS SF are better for turf sprints. For dirt and turf routes, in most cases, I would give the edge to Beyers.
BRIS CR (class ratings) work well for EUROs. When the N.A. and EURO horses have the same CR, give the edge to the EURO.
08 Sep 2012 at 04:00 pm | #
Back in the early 70s, I received a post card in the mail from Florida from a friend of mine. It had a picture of an obvious bum, unshaven, holes in his shoes, the whole nine yards, bellied up to a bar with guys with suits, with a beer bottle in his hand, and he said to them:
“How do I make my living? I play the horses.”
TTT
08 Sep 2012 at 04:17 pm | #
John:
I just wanted to join you in praising Mr. H Pack. When it comes to handicapping seminars, I, and several generations of NYRA fans, discovered the joys of handicapping from Harvey during his then daily discussions of the early double ( when the early double WAS the big horizontal play of the day). Its a borderline crime that Harvey only appears on DRF for the late Saturday Pick 4 at the Spa. Here is one man’s plea to anyone in charge (?) of the new NYRA to get Harvey out of his solitary confinement more than a few times a year.
Nevertheless, John, may I ask you to look into a little problem that I just encountered at the Big A simulcasts of Saratoga. Since the simulcast center is brutally hot and crowded ( the second and third floors are currently off-limits due to asbestos abatement), I ventured into the casino for air conditioning and food. While I ate my Wolfgang Puck pizza, I logged into my NYRA rewards account through the free Genting Wi-Fi, on my I-phone. Since Genting refuses to show the NYRA feed on any of its hundreds of TVs, I attempted to watch the next race through the Rewards video feed. Guess what, Genting BLOCKS the NYRA signal through its Wifi. I had to disconnect the WIFI and use my 3G data signal to watch the next Saratoga race from my Wolfgang Puck seat. Is that ridiculous? What happened to cooperation between Genting and NYRA. If Prince Andrew wants to run NYRA, how about forcing Genting to show the NYRA signal in the casino?
By the way, near the escalator on the now abandoned second floor of the old Aqueduct clubhouse are three depictions of what must be someone’s delusional version of a “new” Aqueduct simulcast center. It reminded me of the old infomercial showing some lake in Tennessee and offering “prime” lots near the lake. I doubt that anything will ever be built either by the lake or at the Big A.
08 Sep 2012 at 04:26 pm | #
BRIS pace figures often seem skewed too high on sloppy/muddy/sealed dirt.
BRIS correctly had Willy Beamin with a top figure equivalent to Trinniberg and Currency Swap.
BRIS late pace figures are often helpful in turf routes if you use a little common sense evaluating the firmness of the course and whether the fractions are skewed by wind, temporary rails, or a bizarre early pace.
08 Sep 2012 at 04:44 pm | #
I was at Hialeah in the early seventies. I think the guy on the postcard was me.
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Which handicapping tool selected the winners at Saratoga Saturday in the first, second, and fourth race? Sunday in the fourth and ninth? Monday in the seventh and eleventh? Was it BRIS, Sartin, Beyer SF, Equiform Energy Figures, or Formulator?
Sure would like to know.
08 Sep 2012 at 06:00 pm | #
wmcorrow: Probably one of these handicapping tools had the winner in each of these races. The key would have been to know ahead of time which one was best for the type of race. The secret to winning, would be to figure out which tool works more consistently for each type of race over the longer term. I left out that certain tools might work better at different tracks as well. And that’s also leaving out angles and trips. In any case, I did not pick the winners in any of the listed races.
08 Sep 2012 at 06:57 pm | #
For me it has always been accurately determining probability based upon empirical data, and thereafter, the crowd will determine my play (or no play). Again, for me, formulator data is next to useless, as are tide and astrological charts, barometric pressure or wind velocity. The things that are not only difficult, but next to impossible to quantify, and which are in constant flux, such as trainer and jockey statistics, again, for me, are useless. To each his own I guess. One thing I don’t do is argue with success. If it works for a certain individual, God bless. I’ve always enjoyed listening to persons who love this game opine in their quest; we don’t need to agree, and that is what make it such a great puzzle and game, again, for me.
TTT
08 Sep 2012 at 08:30 pm | #
Thanks JP, salthebarber,& NK for your BRIS input.
Hope everybody enjoys Beautiful Belmont, and have a great weekend all! I’m taking the weekend off to regroup after a very difficult and frustrating Saratoga. Will be watching and taking notes from home.
Presque Isle does have a nice race tonight. Return of Groupie Doll. It’s Me Mom appears to have a speed edge.
Den
08 Sep 2012 at 08:54 pm | #
To Top Turf Teddy Tedd: If you don’ t mind sharing, what do you mean by empirical data?
08 Sep 2012 at 09:05 pm | #
Time tested evidence. No theories or conecture.
TTT
09 Sep 2012 at 05:54 pm | #
I’ve been thinking. I believe that there is no argument that 3% or perhaps less bettors actually make money wagering on the ponies; if this fact is true, then how is it possible for any handicapping system to consistently deliver winners? If there were a system, then there would be a hell of a lot of people hanging on the rail with a brief case in hand, having quit their day job.
And, if I had such a system, think I would tell you, or write a book?
09 Sep 2012 at 07:34 pm | #
#25, you are for once right.
If Topturfteddy’s time tested empirical data was guaranteed to make you a winner, why would he offer you the information? why would he have to charge you for the info when he would be filthy rich.? I still love you TTT and your sense of humor.
The game/sport is simply for entertainment, no more no less. If these systems help you pick winners great. I find reading the DRF and solving the puzzle by myself with my gained experience suits my intellectual soul. Putting kids through college is damn expensive. I won’t be quitting my day job anytime soon.
10 Sep 2012 at 01:15 pm | #
You gentlemen err greatly, by insinuating that I have made some kind of claim of “making you a winner” with my E.Q.U.I.N.E Ratings. All I did in my statements above is provide a general theory regarding handicapping. What the hell! I’ve made no claims of any kind regarding anything. Yes, I offer my numbers on my site; they are a fantastic tool. You guys should be ashamed of yourselves. Don’t cry in your racing form; it’s difficult to read when it gets wet, but on second thought, that might help some people. Don’t hate me because I’m pretty.
TTT