We hope you don’t take any of the questions--or answers, for that matter—too seriously. The questions were posed in the blog comments section, off message, per usual, with a promise to share the responses with a wider audience.
So here goes, questions and answers, the latter in italics:
Why haven’t the findings of the McKinsey report presented to the Jockey Club been discussed in detail?
Wendell, this is not the first McKinsey Report ever commissioned; their findings have been discussed here and elsewhere. In the main, it confirms what everyone perceives as racing’s problems.
Why haven’t the conclusions of the Ontario government on why slot revenue is going to be shutoff at Woodbine been discussed (findings that fit NYRA like a glove)?
Isn’t it obvious what the long range plans for racinos--in Ontario and elsewhere-- are? Isn’t it something like “take the ‘R’ out of the racino and replace it with a ‘C’?” And don’t Gov. Cuomo’s plans to privatize NYRA speak to that? Note how his team has virtually attributed all breakdowns to increased purses. What does that portend for VLT-infused purses, I wonder?
Discussed by whom? By turf writers coast-to-coast?
>Who else? Regulators will only discuss political solutions to racing’s problems, economic and otherwise. And don’t expect transparency, either.
Takeout and drugs as issues are something new? No.
Think the following are issues to be addressed?
1) Where is a national marketing program? There isn’t one. Under whose auspices, the league office?
2) Why are all racetracks seeking slot revenue for survival? Apparently because they don’t know how to survive on their own any longer.
3) Are six figure purses profitable? Some yes, some no. Do I need to state, again and again, that, according to your McKinsey Report, bettors wager approximately 14 times more on graded stakes than on non-stakes events?
4) Why do people prefer to gamble at a casino? Because, like a good percentage of the low information electorate, they prefer not to think.
5) Just what is achieved by having several stake races on a race card, other than red ink?
To attract betting handle, e.g. $4.4 million simulcast handle on Pennsylvania Derby day card, sell more beer, hot dogs, programs and, most important, increased on-track attendance and handle produce a bigger commission for the horse track.
6) If takeout were reduced, would it really bring in new ‘fans’.
No. See above. Casual bettors prefer not to think, neither does state regulators or a handful of entitled, myopic horsemen. But here’s something a reduced takeout will do IN ADDITION to increasing handle: It would put rebate shops out of business. Big bettors could then enter pools with liquidity and diversity of opinion, presumably creating added value. Handle would increase at a faster and higher rate.
7) Are drugs really the reason that people ignore racetracks? Casual fans? Yes. Big bettors? Yes. Rank and File Players? Not so much.
8) Do people go to a racetrack to gamble or because there are two stake races on the card? To gamble on that day’s card, probably betting more on the two stakes.
9) Do the Triple Crown races, Travers/Pacific Classic, and Breeders’ Cup actually create new ‘fans’? Have no idea. My best guess would be that the Triple Crown does, as does the Breeders’ Cup to a lesser extent; Travers/Pacific Classic unlikely.
10) Does Thoroughbred racing still have an image problem that keeps Joe and Jane from visiting the track? You’re kidding, right?
11) Are Grade I races really any different than claiming races from a gambling view point? When you bet every day at your favorite OTB, do you watch any of the races you bet on? If you did, you wouldn’t ask such a silly question. This is old ground for us, Wendell.
12) if drugs were eliminated, and takeout were reduced, would Thoroughbred’s popularity increase, or would the vast majority of people who like to gamble still go to the casino? Both, but let’s keep the apples with the apples.
13) is Thoroughbred racing a sport or an alternative to casino gambling? If it is gambling--which it is--why is all existing promotion and industry commentary about stakes races, a few thoroughbreds, and a handful of trainers and jockeys?
(a) Racing is a sport AND a gambling game. (b) Casino gambling is for people with no interest in racing, or former horseplayers who gave up the game for whatever reason, or inveterate gamblers who prefer mindless action. (c) There is more than enough gambling/handicapping information available in media. People talk about the best horses, like any sports fan talks about the best teams. The best horses win the big races and a trained by leading trainers, ridden by leading jockeys.
“…Play it again, Sam”: ‘It’s about gambling, about cashing tickets, about convincing people at casinos to gambling on the ponies’. Again, apples and oranges. Handicapping the races, sports or poker playing are skills requiring time and study. It takes absolutely no thought to pull a lever or press a button. Besides, as high as the takeout is on slots, it’s about HALF of what it is at the racetrack.


27 Sep 2012 at 05:40 pm | #
Mr. Pricci: Damn, I must depart shortly for a dinner engagement; thus, I can’t give proper report to your apparent replies to my questions.
In a fast persusal, though, I don’t believe you appreciate, or understand, the need for racing organizations to operate profitably.
Hopefully, I will back tomorrow. I know that readers of HRI commentary can’t wait for me to respond.
27 Sep 2012 at 07:08 pm | #
I must be a member of the “Low Information Electorate.” How does lower takeout put rebate shops out of business when we have consistently advocated lower takeout?
Dick Powell
RGS
27 Sep 2012 at 10:24 pm | #
I think Wendell has posed some very thoughtful and legitimate questions and I am thankful that HRI has provided a forum for discussion on the important topics that Wendell has raised.
I generally agree with Wendell’s questioning of the status quo, especially as it relates to purse distribution and its relationship to handle.
Horse racing is on clearly operating on shaky ground and there is no magic bullet or quick fix--such as VLT revenues--that can be relied upon to secure its future. We all love the game, but we look around and can’t help but seeing an increasingly aging clientele due largely to horseracing’s failure to attract a younger audience. And part of this decline is clearly due to what JP points out as a shift to wagering that does not require a multi-variable analysis, but rather just a pull of a handle or a throw of the dice.
27 Sep 2012 at 11:04 pm | #
Dick, while I understand that RGS does rebate its clients, I don’t consider your company a rebate shop in the classic sense.
RGS I believe pays the highest signal fees to the tracks and your clients bet into track pools. I consider RGS one of the good guys working that side of the street. My bad for not delineating.
Chuck, to your point, and Wendell’s, there was a recent study indicating that field size generally is more repsonsible for increased handle than bigger purses. But those bigger purses that are so common to graded stakes races attracts the kind of horses that the public bets roughy 14 times more than non-graded events.
I do appreciate there is a law of diminishing returns. Lowering takeout is the key to increasing handle regardless of purse size or equine quality. The casual racing fan is attracted to the best horses; why the handle will be higher this Saturday at Belmont than last week’s, or next week’s.
Wendell, I promised you in a comment that I was going to give your questions an full airing. Your public is waiting patiently...hope the dinner was worth it.
28 Sep 2012 at 05:53 am | #
Mr. Pricci: I just spent an hour replying to your commentary. I ‘hit’ the submit button and my comments seem to have disappeared.
What happened?
28 Sep 2012 at 06:18 am | #
John,
It sounds like you think the other rebate shops pay host fees that are below the market rate. Not true. If you took a spectrum of high to low, all of us are on the high end.
Dick
28 Sep 2012 at 07:34 am | #
I conclude that I failed to ‘log in’ earlier this morning when I commented at considerable length.
I no longer have the energy or desire to repeat the lost comments.
I do not know how Mr. Powell and his rebate shop fits in to the mold of wagering hubs. What I do know, I think, is that takeout on all the various wagers appear to average out to 20%. So a racebook in Las Vegas, or an OTB in Connecticut, receives about 20 cents of every dollar wagered and then forwards something like five or three cents to the racetrack presenting the race, referred to as a signal fee. Reducing the takeout to, say, 15% takes five cents out of the racebook or OTB’s cut, and they still have to pay the racetrack the five or three cents.
------
Michael Lamb, of McKinsey & Co., presented a follow-up report to the Jockey Club this year. The report was most depressing as he stated that Thoroughbred racing was flat, field size has dropped, the fan base is not growing, the foal crop is declining, ADW remains intimidating for newbies, that the industry is not capitalizing on LEGAL on-line wagering, and once sports betting on-line is legal (now being sought by New Jersey and other states) racing will be in for another huge challenge for the gambling dollar. The only positive mentioned was that purses increased 8% due to casino dole. Not mentioned by Mr. Lamb are what I believe would be positive moves: a) a commmissioner; b) a national marketing program; c) local racetrack advertising promoting gambling as an alternative to casino gambling, showing people having a terrific time at the racetrack (as casinos do constantly now in my area) and informing what wagering options there are for a buck and what the payoffs for a buck have been.
------
Saturday NYRA is presenting an eleven race card with purses totaling $3,684,000; to fund these purses, if casino dole wasn’t doing it, all that need happen is for 30,000 people to be in attendance and average per capita wagering be $300, and for 120,000 off-track patrons to wager per capita $300 (assuming NYRA is receiving 5% for their signal fee, though probably 3%). “What, me worry? We got slots!”
So, the way I read it, thirty-three owners at the maximum are going to receive 90% of $3,686,000. A very wide distribution of money, isn’t it!
Appears Governor Cuomo has a lot of ammunition to support his desire to sell NYRA.
28 Sep 2012 at 08:10 am | #
John - I will be at the West Side Stadium Pub at 5PM this afternoon. Hopefully I can meet with you, wmcorrow and others for more detailed discussion on these issues.
28 Sep 2012 at 08:39 am | #
Preach,
And they say:
“You don’t tug on Superman’s cape
You don’t spit into the wind
You don’t pull the mask off that ol’ Lone Ranger
And you don’t mess around with ... WMC!?!?
Tomorrow at beautiful Belmont Park on Strong Island, they are running the “TVG” Jockey Club Gold Cup. That’s right! TVG owned by Betfair gaming is sponsoring the race and supporting the purse of one million. I think WMC forgot to put this into his handle equation.
Maybe more sponsorship is the answer for purse distribution. BTW.. The Kentucky Derby is really the Yum Brands Ky. Derby.
Maybe also, the owners need to ante up more for these Stake races in the form of entry fees. Make it more of a poker game where the winner takes the pot!
Owners could also sell advertising brands on the jockey silks to fund entry fees. Just my two cents on some ideas to fund the purses without casino dole.
Remember every bully meets it’s match! This mess can be fixed. The beat will go on…
Lyrics/Music: Jim Croce
Uptown got its hustlers, Bowery got its bums
Forty-second Street got big Jim a-Walker
He a pool-shootin’ son of a gun
Yeah, he big ‘n’ dumb as a man can come
But he stronger than the country ho(r)ss(e)
And when the bad folks all get together at night
You know they all call big Jim “Boss”
Just because…
And they say:
“You don’t tug on Superman’s cape
You don’t spit into the wind
You don’t pull the mask off that ol’ Lone Ranger
And you don’t mess around with Jim”
Ba-doom dooh-dah-dah deem di-di di-di dee
Well, outta South Alabama come a country boy
He said: “I’m lookin’ for a man named ‘Jim’
I am a pool-shootin’ boy, my name Willie McCoy
But down a-home they call me ‘Slim’
Yeah, I’m lookin’ for the King of 42nd Street
He drivin’ a drop top Cadillac
Last week he took all my money
And it may sound funny
But I come to get my money back”
And everybody say: “Jack, ooh, don’t you know…
That you don’t tug on Superman’s cape
You don’t spit into the wind
You don’t pull the mask off that ol’ Lone Ranger
And you don’t mess around with Jim”
Ba-doom dooh-dah-dah deem di-di di-di dee
Well, a hush fell over the pool-room
‘m Jimmy come boppin’ in off the street
And when the cuttin’ were done
The only part that wasn’t bloody
Was the soles of the big man’s feet
Yeah, he were cut in in ‘bout a hundred places
And he was shot in a couple more
And you better believe
They sang a different kind-a story
When a-big Jim hit the floor… hmm-huh…
Now they’re sayin’:
“You don’t tug on Superman’s cape
You don’t spit into the wind
You don’t pull the mask off that ol’ Lone Ranger
And you don’t mess around with Slim”
Mmm…
28 Sep 2012 at 09:32 am | #
#9: The measurement, the guideline, the actual fact is not whether the purses are funded by slot revenue, sponsors, or other extraneous sources. What should matter is that the day’s race card with $3,684,000 in purses is not recoverable from takeout, signal fees, and beer/dog sales; that the purses Saturday at Belmont represent a huge giveaway to be enjoyed by a few.
As to your ideas to fund purses I got one: reduce the damn purses to levels that are supported by takeout and signal fees. As the Ontario Government’s report on SARP (slots at racetracks program) reported, when the purses get into the six figures, they are usually won by the usual suspects (meaning the few wealthy owners who have purchased the most expensive horseflesh).
Think the Gold Cup with a million dollar purse is going to a) be easier to handicap, b) be more exciting, and c) have larger payoffs than the first race with a purse of $30,000 or the last race with a purse of $57,000? Of the ten entrants two are fill-ins; and of the remain eight, six are trained by Mott (2), Pletcher (2), McGaughey, and Zito - as usual, the usual suspects.
28 Sep 2012 at 11:13 am | #
Earth to #10,
Let me fix this for you.
What should matter is that the day’s race card with $3,684,000 in purses IS RECOVERABLE BY LOWERING THE TAKEOUT, THUS CREATING MORE HANDLE TO TAKEOUT.
The Gold Cup with a million dollar purse is going to a) require more SKILL to handicap, b) be a more exciting SPORT AND GAMBLING EVENT c) have a larger BETTING HANDLE than the first race with a purse of $30,000 or the last race with a purse of $57,000! Of the ten entrants two HAVE AS MUCH A CHANCE AS ANY and of the remaining eight, six are trained by Mott (2), Pletcher (2), McGaughey, and Zito - NOT SO as usual, the usual suspects COULD INCLUDE BAFFERT, O’NEIL AND ASMUSSEN.
THE BEAT GOES ON?
Ground Control to Major Tom
Your circuit’s dead, there’s something wrong
Can you hear me, Major Tom?
Can you hear me, Major Tom?
Can you hear me, Major Tom?
Can you....
“Here am I floating round my tin can
Far above the Moon
Planet Earth is blue
And there’s nothing I can do.”
28 Sep 2012 at 12:29 pm | #
Racing bitches about lack of media coverage of its major races, then it devalues its own product by carding them as the second and third races, hoping cheaper, less predictable races, will build a big Pick Six pool, hoping to compete with casinos and lotteries, which is impossible. A relative handful of people play against each in the Pick Six pools. Interesting that the Pick 4 now outhandles it at almost every track, because that’s where the majority of the crowd can afford to play.
Also, anyone who didn’t forsee the racino money being redirected from racing to the states’ cash-
starved general funds had to be blind and stupid.
28 Sep 2012 at 03:16 pm | #
#11: I think you could use a vacation, and bring alone a book that explains the fundamentals of accounting to a beginner.
#12: Right on! Excellent points, especially how the pick six is presented.
28 Sep 2012 at 03:52 pm | #
WMC, you would love tvtom; a curmudgeon like yourself, although he is mellowing with age just like you--not.
tvtom, off topic, much is being made of how Kurt Sutter killed off Opie in SOA. I have my theories, we’ll talk. On topic: Yes, affordable P4s and right on about scheduling stakes very early in the card. Why should fans honor tradition when the racing office doesn’t?
Cat, hope you don’t go on vacation, you’ve been among the missing, happy to have you back.
Allstar, don’t know where WMC lives, I assume Conn.
I am on LI but would be happy to have a cocktail at another time.
28 Sep 2012 at 04:19 pm | #
#13,
You hate stake races, I get it! You are not alone I get it!
I like Stake races. John Pricci likes stakes races. We are not alone!
Everyone is entitled to an opinion!
You like to show the math of why the purses for stake races don’t work.
I say sometimes they do. I suggest solutions. What is wrong with sponsors like TVG supporting part of the purse? What is wrong with higher entry fees to support the purses?
Here’s my math for Super Saturday at Belmont:
20,000 people on track wager on average $500 at an average takeout of 20% equals $2million
100,000 people off track wager on average $200 at an average signal fee takeout of 5% equals $1mil
Sponsorship TVG and entry fees equal to 684 grand.
There’s your $3,684,000
Now if you lower the takeout to 10% of course you have to do double the handle of 20%. I think you could triple it in time. Think about it my friend.
Can’t afford a vacation. I’m a Mechanical Engineer with a house on Long Island, taxes anyone? with a wife and kids in college. US BLUES ... Hello!!!!!
Did someone say PLAY IT AGAIN SAM?
Red and white, blue suede shoes, I’m Uncle Sam, how do you do?
Gimme five, I’m still alive, ain’t no luck, I learned to duck.
Check my pulse, it don’t change. Stay seventy-two come shine or rain.
Wave the flag, pop the bag, rock the boat, skin the goat.
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high.
Summertime done, come and gone, my, oh, my.
I’m Uncle Sam, that’s who I am; Been hidin’ out in a rock and roll band.
Shake the hand that shook the hand of P.T. Barnum and Charlie Chan.
Shine your shoes, light your fuse. Can you use them ol’ U.S. Blues?
I’ll drink your health, share your wealth, run your life, steal your wife.
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high.
Summertime done, come and gone, my, oh, my.
Back to back chicken shack. Son of a gun, better change your act.
We’re all confused, what’s to lose? You can call this song the United States Blues.
Wave that flag, wave it wide and high.
Summertime done, come and gone, my, oh, my.