Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Thursday, October 19, 2017


Best College and Pro Upsets, OCT 21-22


Wake Forest over GEORGIA TECH by 6

We all know the Wreck can’t pass the ball (No. 128 in passing offense with just 77.6 PYPG), but they lead the nation in fewest penalties (18) on the season and are also tied for the best Time of Possession (36 MPG). On the down side, they are a concerning 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games following a loss and are probably looking dead ahead to a trip to Clemson. Also, we came up with this interesting stat from our Coaches database: teams are 10-21 ATS as conference home favorites in games after facing a Mark Richt team. Meanwhile, Wake is tied with Miami for fewest turnovers lost (3) along with N.C. State and Alabama. Also, the Demon Deacons have been absolute road warriors recently, going 8-2 ATS in their last ten away games. But here’s THE CLINCHER: Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson is 13-6 ATS away in conference games following an ATS win, including 8-1 SUATS when not a double-digit dog.



OREGON over UCLA by 8

It only took two weeks – and back-to-back blowout losses – for the public to dump Oregon like a hot potato. However, we think this game could be just what the fry cook ordered for the struggling Ducks. Head coach Willie Taggart’s teams (USF and Oregon running) had scored 30-plus points 22 games in a row until their recent two game no-show (scored just 10 and 7 points). We’re calling out backup QB Braxton Burmeister, whose deer-in-the-headlights performances showed him to be incapable of moving the OU offense. Fortunately for Taggart, SR QB Taylor Alie is back and ready to go, along with a now-healthy RB Royce Freeman. That one-two punch should be enough to subdue a UCLA squad that seems to have lost its way. The error-prone Bruins rank No. 126 in TO Margin (-1.67 net TOs per game ) and HC Jim Mora – who should be on a one-way train out of LA when this season is over – owns a dreadful 1-10 ATS mark of failure as a conference favorite against foes off a SUATS loss. Another bad sign: Mora’s ‘defense’ has been gouged for over 40 PPG this season, and his Bruins have surrendered an average of 48.25 PPG the last fi ve meetings in this series. That’s a huge problem considering Mora is 1-16 ATS as a favorite in games where his team allows more than 30 points. And while we like Taggart’s 30-11-1 ATS away mark in his career, what we really like is THE CLINCHER: Oregon HC Taggart is 5-0 ATS as a dog in his career in games following consecutive ATS losses.

NFL

Atlanta over NE by 8

There is revenge. And there is meaningful revenge. This, my friend, is MOST meaningful revenge. Following the biggest giveaway loss in Super Bowl history, the Falcons’ 34-28 OT jaw-dropping defeat to the Patriots last season, you can rest assured this game has been circled with a deep shade of red lipstick – as in ‘kiss-this’ – by Dan Quinn and the Dirty Birds. It’s our best guess the Falcons were perhaps looking ahead to this game at halftime of the Dolphins game when they blew a 17-0 lead at the half against the Fish last week. What we do know is Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is 10-2 ATS in his last twelve regular season games as a non-division dog, while the Falcons are 6-1 ATS as dogs off consecutive AFC games, as well as 8-2-1 ATS in their 3rd away game of the season when seeking revenge. The defenseless Pats are dead last in overall defense allowing 441 YPG. They are also 5-25 ATS as home favorites against avenging NFC opponents. They are also 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS at home in Foxborough this season. However, from our powerful database comes THE CLINCHER: Sunday night teams playing with revenge off a SUATS favorite loss against sub .700 foes off an ATS loss are 19-3 SU and 18-3-1 ATS since 1990.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Friday, October 13, 2017


Marc Lawrence Underdog Best Bets Oct 14-15


College

North Texas over UTSA by 10

Roadrunners looked more like roadkill last week when they fell to Southern Miss as 10-point home chalk. So now they dress up as road favorites? We don’t think so! We warned you last week about UTSA’s phony 3-0 record (all three wins came against winless FBS foes and FCS weakling Southern) and North Texas is a far cut above that ilk, coming off back-to-back wins while scoring 46 and 43 points, respectively. The Mean Green will be eager to make amends for last year’s 31-17 loss at San Antonio, and the intuitive MIDWEEK ALERT informs us that UNT is currently out-stating foes by 110 YPG (they were -98 net YPG in 2016). More good news for the Green: the series host has won and covered three straight, and the ‘Runners arrive with a money-burning 2-6 ATS mark as chalk against avenging foes since joining the FBS, including 0-2 ATS away. And not only is North Texas 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven home dog roles against foes off a spread loss.



NAVY over Memphis by 8


The Middies blew an 18-point halftime lead over Air Force – and the cover – when they had to come from behind to beat the Falcons, 48- 45. Navy was outgained, 621-557, in last week’s 15-rounder against the Force but the swabbies still managed to remain unbeaten. As a result, they become a 5-0 FAT CATS (see last week’s SMART BOX) this afternoon at the Liberty Bowl – but in a good way as ‘dogs’. Now 3-0 in the AAC, the Middies are a leg-and-a-half up on the 1-1 Tigers in the West Division (also cracked this week’s AP Top 25). Meanwhile, Memphis is off to a stumbling 2-3 start in HC Mike Norvel’s second campaign and the Tigers’ 511-yard defense is 95 YPG worse than the Middies. That’s a big deal as the invading Midshipmen sail into port boasting the nation’s top rushing offense. Conference competition has not overpowered Navy, either, as the Mids are an impressive 17-3 SU and 12-6-2 ATS in the AAC since joining the loop in 2015. Our database reminds us that Memphis is 5-18-1 ATS in its last 20 games as single-digit favorites versus foes off an ATS loss. In addition, the Tigers have outstated two of their four opponents this season – Southern Illinois and UConn – while being outgained against UCLA (allowed Bruins season-high 633 yards) and UL Monroe.


KANSAS STATE over TCU by 3

KANSAS ST over Tcu by 3 The Froggies outlasted West Virginia in a 31-24 victory last week to stay undefeated, making them a 5-0 FAT CAT fade (see last week’s SMART BOX) here tojavascript:nullo()day. They were also outgained by 101 yards in the win. We’ll go against this 5-0 road favorite as the noose gets tighter and tighter away from home for these undefeated teams this time of the season. Normally, we’d be looking to fade the Wildcats following a double-OT loss at Texas last week, but the 5-0 Fat Cat Frogs – and the fact that KSU head coach Bill Snyder’s kids are not favored here today – puts us on KSU like Jamie Lannister on Cersie. Snyder knows a win here, plus an Oklahoma victory over Texas in today’s Red River Rivalry, puts them in a logjam tie atop the Big 12. Check the status of QB Jesse Ertz, hurt in last week’s Texas contest.

NFL

TAMPA BAY over Arizona by 4

Tampa Bay over ARIZONA by 4 If you thought the NY Giants have problems, then get in line behind the Cardinals as well. Bruce Arians’ birds have lost all 5 games ATS this season, while both of Zona’s wins have been in OT. In other words, they could well be 0-5 SUATS. Without star RB David Williams (the league’s top rusher, out for the year) the Cards running game has fallen off the map, averaging just 53 RYPG (worst in the league). The recent pickup of ancient Adrian Peterson from the Saints may help, but it still all falls on the arm and legs of ancient QB Carson Palmer, and that’s not a good formula. Arizona is 1-6 ATS in its 3rd home game of the season, and making matters worse, they are headed to London next week.Like the Rams above, NFL teams are 2-14 SU and 3-10-3 ATS as dogs in games before traveling to Buckingham Palace. The Buccaneers are 6-1 ATS away after scoring 14 or fewer points the last game, and 5-1 ATS following AFC opponents.

Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, October 05, 2017


Marc Lawrence Best Bet Underdogs Oct 7-8


BYU over Boise St by 6

When the South Point posted its ‘Games of the Year’ lines at the end of May, you would have had to lay 6 points with Kilani Sitake’s Cougars. Now, four months and fi ve games later, the homestanding Cougars check in as 8.5-point dogs. Granted, the 1-4 Cougs appear to have lost their claws after an opening-win scrimmage over Portland State but it’s not like the Broncos have been anything special, losing two games in September for just the third time in 16 years. In fact, the Broncos have struggled mightily under Bryan Harsin, going 18-24-1 ATS in all games, including 3-12-1 ATS the last 16 contests. They’ve also surrendered more yards than they’ve gained this season while allowing 29 PPG, a twist that brings into play our INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3. In addition, the Mormons are 59-12 SU at home the last 12 years (0-2 this season) with only seven losses by more than 7 points. They’re also 3-0 SUATS in games when riding a 4-game losing skid exact. And if you still don’t think these Cougars are eager for this visit from the ‘Boise’ in blue, check out THE CLINCHER: BYU is 8-0 SU and 7-0-1 ATS at home following a SU favorite loss.



LSU over Florida by 7

Go ahead and scoff… we understand. If ever the Bayou Bengals looked ripe for slaughter, it’s NOW. But this trip could also be just what the doctor ordered for the home-stale Tigers – getting away from Death Valley where they’ve failed miserably in each of the last two weeks. The all-knowing database concurs, noting that CFB road dogs off three consecutive ATS losses, the last as a double-digit favorite, are 16-4 ATS if they won 8 or more games the previous season. Florida QB Feleipe Franks takes over for good (we think) from Luke Del Rio, who broke his collarbone last week and is out for the season (the hard-luck Del Rio had undergone two offseason shoulder surgeries earlier this year). However, we think the Florida offense is a fraud and last week’s late gravy cover over Vandy brings value to the play. With leading WR Tyrie Cleveland out today for the Gators with an ankle injury, we remind you that LSU was the 3-point favorite in this game at the South Point in Vegas when they posted their ‘Games of the Year’ plays before the season began. Yes, LSU’s Ed ‘Mushmouth’ Oregeon sucks in games against winning SEC foes, but he is also 4-0 ATS in his career when not favored by 20 or more points games following a SU favorite loss, which ties nicely into THE CLINCHER: LSU is 15-4-1 ATS as a dog following a SU favorite loss, including 12-1-1 ATS when facing a greater-than .700 opponent.

NFL

MIAMI over Tennessee by 10


Call this the Chubby Checker special this week – our ‘how low can you go’ ditty. After getting their asses kicked in front of the Queen last week, the road weary Dolphins fi nally return to Miami to host their home opener with more mud on their face than the Kardashians at a press conference. Yes, we’re aware of the fact [we’re the ones reporting it, for god’s sake] that NFL teams are 0-5 SU in their home opener in Game 4 of the season since 1989. But we also know that dogs in home-opening games off a shutout loss are 3-1 ATS since 2000. Better yet, Miami is 25-12 SU in home openers, and also 8-1 ATS in NFC sandwich games. Meanwhile, the Titans are 3-12-1 ATS before facing the Indianapolis Colts, 1-5 SUATS in their last six games against AFC East opponents, and 2-8-1 ATS away following the Houston Texans. The bottom line, though, is there is no better elixir in the NFL than red-faced humiliation. And the red Fish are frying. THE CLINCHER: NFL non-division dogs off a shutout loss are 34-10 ATS against .500 or less opponents since 1980, including 8-0 ATS versus foes off a SU favorite loss.

SEATTLE over LA Rams by 13

If history has a say in this game – and it usually does – it could be argued that the wrong team is favored today. The surprising Rams, who haven’t been to playoff game since 2005, adorn themselves with favorite’s clothing for the 4th time this young season, on the heels of last week’s upset win at Dallas knowing they are 1-5 ATS at home between away games, and 1-5 ATS in division games following consecutive away games. Enter the postseasontested Seahawks, a playoff squad each of the last fi ve seasons, who are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in games before their bye week the last fi ve seasons, as well as 16-7 SUATS following an AFC opponent, including 5-0 ATS as a dog. Yes, the success of the Rams has been pleasant, but an 11-30-2 ATS mark since 2012 by 1st-year coaches that fi nd themselves favored in games following a SU underdog win has not. And fi nally to rest our case.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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