Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Thursday, November 10, 2016


Marc Lawrence Best Bet Upsets, Nov. 11-13


Cincinnati over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 1

Whereas those aforementioned 4-5 favorites don’t fare well in Game Ten of the season, 4-5 dogs of 3 or more points, off those same two losses-exact, do just fi ne (7-2-1 ATS) if they also went bowling the previous campaign. In order to be a player this postseason, the Bearcats obviously need this one like Trump needs Florida and Ohio. And it looks like their head coach is following in the footsteps of the Donald. Following last Saturday’s ugly 20-3 home loss to BYU, Tommy Tuberville got into it with a heckler who told him to stop stealing money from the university by responding “go to hell, get a job” (if elected, Trump promises there will be jobs down there). Tubs is now taking heat and we’ll look for him to take out his frustrations on a UCF team that is leaking more oil than the Exxon Valdez (0-5 ‘ITS last fi ve). We realize that the 5-4 Knights are still one win shy of bowl eligibility and becoming one of the feel-good stories of the year (they were 0-12 last season), but we just don’t trust them as double-digit chalk.



MINNESOTA over Nebraska by 7

Reality has set in for Nebraska. A promising 7-0 start quickly faded after a double dose of reality: an OT loss at Wisconsin and a 62-3 humiliation at Ohio Stadium, where the Huskers saw starting QB Tommy Armstrong carted away to a Columbus hospital. While Armstrong did return to the sidelines before game’s end, he is nonetheless following ‘concussion protocol’ this week and may not start (or even play) this evening. No matter; we’ll go with the Golden Gophers here, even if Minnesota RB Rodney Smith can’t answer the bell. While the Cornhuskers might still be reeling from that demoralizing beatdown by Ohio State, the Gophers should be completely focused. Tied at 4-2 atop the Big Ten West division with Wisconsin and Nebraska, Minnesota actually controls its conference destiny whereas Nebbish does not. The Gophers have somehow managed to stay under the radar while putting together a 7-2 record (lost to Penn State by 3 points and Iowa by 7), but they’re a bonafi de ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ SMART BOX dog here with their super 8-1 ITS mark this season. Minny also claims most of the ATS edges in this matchup, going 5-0 ATS away when playing with conference revenge and 8-2 ATS as a Big Ten dog of 10 or less points. By comparison, Nebraska is a weak 1-5 ATS versus conference revenge and just 1-4 ATS in the fi rst of consecutive Big Ten home games. And while revenge from a 48-25 loss as small home chalk last year should serve the Gophers well today, the fi nal nail in the Huskers’ coffi n comes courtesy of THE CLINCHER: Double-Bubble Burst teams from Game Ten out on the season, off their initial two losses of the season, are 0-7-1 ATS since 1980 as home favorites when facing an opponent with a winning record.

NFL


JACKSONVILLE over Houston by 10

Somehow, despite being outscored and out-yarded on the season, the Texans enter this contest with 5 wins, and a game-and-a-half lead in the AFC South... to which we say poppycock. Yes, we realize Houston is 5-0 SUATS away against losing division opponents, and the favorite is 27-11-2 ATS in games under Bill O’Brien. But there comes a time when numbers like those begin to dissolve and they almost always occur in circumstances like those outlined above. The Jaguars’ season has not been rewarding, for sure. Expected to contend for division honors behind a plethora of young talent, Jacksonville has disappointed. A buy sign, though, came last week when they limited the Chiefs to a season-low 231 yards in a 5-point loss that was directly attributable to a 4-0 defi cit in turnovers. (FYI: the Jags are on the short end of a 10-0 TO margin in the four games since their bye). Meanwhile, the Texans are 1-4 ATS in division games following a bye week, while Jacksonville is 7-2 SUATS following the Kansas City Chiefs, including 4-0 SUATS at home. We close it with THE CLINCHER: .250 or greater NFL home dogs off a pair of away games, with a pair of away games on deck, are 8-4 SU and 11-1 ATS since 1980 following a loss of more than 3 points when facing a winning foe off a win.

LA RAMS over NY Jets by 8

This initially looks like an ugly dog that’s hard to wrap our hands around. But thanks to our sister publication, the MIDWEEK ALERT, we can feel the love and warmth pouring through. For openers, the Rams have lost their last four games but won the overall stats in each game. A 9-1 defi cit in turnover margin in those games was the main culprit. The turnover-prone Jets fi gure to help cure that ill. New York is 0-5 ATS following a loss when facing NFC South opponents, and 5-20 SUATS following a loss to the Miami Dolphins. On the other side of the coin, the Rams are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in this series, including 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in games in which the Jets own a win percentage of .333 or greater. Furthermore, Rams head coach Jeff Fisher thrives in roles like this as he famously supplies THE CLINCHER: Fisher is 22- 9-2 ATS as a road dog against losing opposition, including 8-1 SUATS when taking less than a field goal from a sub .444 foe.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, October 27, 2016


Marc Lawrence Best Upsets—Oct. 28 Weekend


Nebraska over Wisconsin by 8

With the Badgers in the last leg of a stretch that has found them taking on three consecutive opponents (Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa) that are a combined 18-4 on the season – and possibly looking ahead to a double revenger with Northwestern next week – expect them to wear down against the undefeated and highly-motivated Silk tonight. Add the fact that Nebraska is 4-1 ATS as a conference dog of 8 or less points while Wisconsin is just 3-7 ATS as home chalk by the same numbers, plus Bucky is a tired 1-3 ATS at home versus Big Ten revenge. The pissed-off Huskers rank behind 1-loss Louisville and Ohio State in the AP poll as they continue to earn little respect despite the fact they are 7-0. In addition, head coach Mike Riley chips in as the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER (see page 2). But as always, it’s the well-oiled machine that supplies THE CLINCHER: 5-0 or greater college football dogs of 14 or less points who allow 19 or fewer PPG on the season are 30-6 ATS since 1980 when facing a foe off back-to-back ATS wins that won 10 or fewer games last season.



Purdue over Penn State by 3


A sea of white came gushing on to the fi eld at Happy Valley following the Lions’ stunning upset of Ohio State last week... and with it an obvious letdown situation is in order today. HC James Franklin spent a short time savoring the victory, his fi rst win over a Top 25 team since arriving at Penn State in 2014. Now, the Lions have moved into the AP Top 25 themselves for the fi rst time since 2011, and with the abrupt decline of Sparty this season, the remaining schedule for the Nittany Lions is fi lled with fi ve winnable games and a possible 10-2 record on the horizon. Who would have believed it? Unfortunately, the Lions are 0-5-1 ATS as favorites away from State College behind Franklin, and 0-3 ATS as road chalk since 1983 following a SU home underdog win. They will match up with a Purdue team that fought hard in a gutty loss to Nebraska last week in the fi rst contest following the dismissal of Darrell Hazell. The strange thing is that despite the pink slip issued to their head coach, the Boilers need just three wins in their fi nal fi ve games to make themselves bowl-eligible. Taking advantage of a Penn State here today in the Mother of all Letdowns would be a good start.

NFL

GREEN BAY over Atlanta by 8

Hooray. After 15 straight games, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers fi nally surpassed the 300-yards passing plateau in last Thursday’s game against the Chicago Bears. And that sets the table for this showdown, as Green Bay is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in games with a winning record following a game on Thursday. Speaking of Rodgers, he brings a 17-7 SUATS career mark into this fray in games against foes off a SU favorite loss, including 10-2 SUATS when the Packers sport a win percentage of .666 or less on the season. His counterpart, Matt Ryan, checks in at 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in his last fi ve starts versus NFC North opponents. With the Falcons quickly coming back to earth with a pair of losses – and a similar pattern to last year looking like it’s in full effect again this season (Atlanta went 3-8 out following a 5-0 start under Dan Quinn in 2015, and now 0-2 after beginning 4-1 in 2016) – we quickly turn to THE CLINCHER: The dog in Falcons’ games with Quinn is 20-3 ATS.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, October 20, 2016


Marc Lawrence Best College & Pro Upsets, Weekend of Oct. 21, 2016


Arkansas over AUBURN by 10

A tip of the visor to Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn. After a 1-2 start, Gus was perched above a flaming-meteor hotseat when he not only staved off execution, he finally lit a fire under his football team. Now riding a 3-game SUATS win skein, including a 38-14 dismantling of Mississippi State at Starkville two weeks ago, Auburn is playing with supreme confidence on both sides of the ball. And Tiger fans who were pissed by their team’s absence in this year’s AP Preseason poll (six other SEC teams made the Top 25) are now enjoying talk that Aubbie is on the verge of becoming a legitimate darkhorse in the SEC. To which we say: wake up. Because of their sudden public appeal, the Tigers are certainly overpriced here, laying near-doubles today when they took a full TD from the Hogs at Fayetteville last year. Bret Bielema’s Razorbacks proved they could compete for a full 60 minutes when they survived an epic 34-30 slugfest against Ole Miss last Saturday, and the Hogs own a soo-weet 5-1 ATS mark when taking 17 or fewer points as conference road dogs. Currently obscured by the Auburn spotlight is the fact that the Tigers are a terrible risk in this situation, going just 3-9 ATS as SEC chalk of 7 or more points from Game Three out. Hey, just winning the contest outright won’t be easy as Malzahn stands a shaky 4-10 SU in his last 14 conference games! Making matters worse, Auburn is caught smack in the middle of a Mississippi revenge sandwich: off the MSU revenge win (1-5 ATS after Miss State) with an Ole Miss revenger on deck (2-6 SUATS before playing the Rebels). Will the Tigers summon a superior effort to honor former Auburn DE Quentin Groves, who died unexpectedly this week at the age of 32? Perhaps, but deaths within football programs usually result in dreadful perfomances the following game with broken hearts not yet ready to mend so quickly. With that, we’ll side with a scrappy bunch of Hogs that have posted a 4-2 SU winning effort in their last six games versus ranked foes. While head Tiger Malzahn basks in the glow of his team’s recent success, we’ll focus instead on THE CLINCHER: Arkansas coach Bret Bielema is 12-3-1 ATS as a dog off a SUATS win in his career, including 11-1 ATS as a dog of 10 or less points.



TCU over West Virginia by 8

After getting throttled at home by the Hokies two weeks ago, the Tar Heels surprised the Canes last week on the road and now sit atop the ACC Coastal. You would think with road wins at Tallahassee and Miami already on this year’s resume, we would have no problem riding shotgun into Charlottesville with Larry Fedora and company. However, we prefer taking the ‘Bronco’ as the Virginia head coach is 24-11-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points, including 8-2 ATS in conference play. In fact, his Cavs are 10-3 ATS in the second of three straight homers and 4-1 ATS as home dogs of 6 or more points. Meanwhile, the Heels are 0-5-1 ATS as road favorites of 7 or more points and 3-10-1 SU and 3-11 ATS on the conference highway off an away win of 3 or more points, including 0-6 ATS versus a foe off a SU loss. Even our MIDWEEK ALERT is hesitant in tipping its cap to Fedora as UNC is being out-gained by 12 YPG in FBS contests this season while the Cavs own the better net stats in similar games. More importantly, our NCAA Coaches League database supplies THE CLINCHER: Bronco Mendenhall is 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home in games off a SU home loss.

NFL

INDY over Tennessee by 4

It was a hard loss to endure, for sure. Leading by 14 points in the fi nal three minutes of the game, the Colts imploded and somehow became the fi rst of 41 previous Indianapolis teams to blow a 14-point 4th-quarter lead when they dropped a 26-23 decision in overtime to Houston. The question is can they bounce back? We think so, given today’s opponent. For openers, they catch the Titans off back-to-back wins (albeit over Cleveland and Miami), a role in which they stand 0-4 SUATS since 2011. Furthermore, Tennessee is 7-15 ATS at home following a home game, including 1-7 ATS off a SU win. On the other side of the coin, Colts’ QB Andrew Luck is 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS away in division games, while the Horseshoes are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in this series when playing off an away game. In addition, Indy is 18-8 SUATS following the Houston Texans. And just in case you’re new to this newsletter, we need to remind you of THE CLINCHER: Tennessee head coach Mike Mularkey is 3-15 SUATS in his last 18 home games.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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