Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Monday, May 17, 2010


NBA Round Three Betting Edges


One month into the NBA Playoffs and we’re down to the Conference Finals. In just two weeks the season will conclude with the Championship Finals as the 2009-10 season winds its way to the finish line.

From our database, let’s take a peek and see what we can expect from teams in the Third Round of the playoffs. Remember, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) in Third Round action over the past 20 years, unless stated otherwise. Enjoy…

DOWN BUT NOT OUT
You can blow a good team out once. Twice is not as likely.

As we’ve learned, teams that fail miserably tend to bounce back rather than stay down. In fact, teams off a pointspread loss of more than 10 points are a very profitable 37-20-1 ATS in 3rd round playoff action.

Bring them in off a SU upset loss as a favorite and they improve to 22-9-1 ATS. Let these upset losers dress up as dogs off a pointspread loss of more than 10 points and they become a 13-3-1 ATS winning proposition.



BETTER TEAMS MAKE NICE DOGS
Taking points with better teams will seldom put you in harm’s way.

Teams with a better win percentage takings points are 47-37-1 ATS on the blind. When playing after a loss, they are 20-12-1 ATS in this round. Bring them in off a loss of 4 or more points and they improve to 19-8-1 ATS.

Best of all, when taking 4 or more points with a better team off a loss of 4 or more points you have a 11-2-1 ATS winning edge.


RUNNING ON EMPTY
You can hold a good team down, but not for long.

Teams that reach the 3rd round of the playoffs have established themselves as being better than most. When good teams come up with sub par scoring efforts they tend to bounce back in followup games.

That’s confirmed by the fact the road teams in Round Three who scored 78 or fewer points in their previous game are a wallet stretching 14-5-1 ATS. Better yet, if the Over/Under total in this round is less than 186 points they improve to 13-2 against the number.

There you have it. Three rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 3rd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Friday, May 07, 2010


NBA ROUND TWO BETTING EDGES


With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.

Three down, but not out
Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not go down easily in Round Two.

Unlike most other rounds, teams playing off three consecutive losses that are not favored (pick or dog) prove to be resilient this round, going 8-6 SU and 10-4 ATS.

Better yet, if they showed some spark of like in the last game – scoring 82 or more points – these teams tend to take a punch almost as well as Jake LaMotta, going 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS in this role.



Thou shall not lay points to a No. 1 seed
One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: never lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 15-25-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss, lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS.

And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS.

Role reversals
You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs do.
That’s confirmed by the fact that Round Two dogs off a straight-up loss as a favorite are 29-20 ATS.

When changing roles off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, these puppies bark to the tune of 11-4 ATS, including 10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of les than .680 on the season.

Running on empty
Teams that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 20-10-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 15-3 ATS, including 14-1 when laying four or more points.

There you have it. Four reliable betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Tuesday, April 20, 2010


NBA ZIG ZAGS… Going Up In Smoke?


Long before the GOLD SHEET first called out the premise, Zig Zags have been the most popular rolling paper for those who enjoy their smoke of choice.

In NBA handicapping circles, Zig Zags are trendy applications that have been profitable moneymakers during the playoffs. The play is simple: Play On a team off a playoff loss in its very next game.

The theory is that in a short series, involving imminent elimination, a team in more inclined to bounce back with a good effort off a losing performance than it is to continue its losing ways.

How have these plays held up of late? You might be surprised.

Here are pointspread results of NBA Playoff Zig Zags from 1991 through 2009.



Game on

Overall: 611-532-27
Game Two: 149-125-12
Game Three: 163-118-14
Game Four: 127-124-4
Game Five: 93-95-5
Game Six: 57-50
Game Seven: 22-20

The strength of NBA Zig Zags appears to be in Game Three. That’s generally where lower seeds return home after opening the series as a visitor. They tend to step up the pace when doing so off a loss.

Round ‘em up

Round One: 283-246-12
Round Two: 191-163-7
Round Three: 93-83-6
Round Four: 44-40-2

2nd Round games have been more profitable than others while championship rounds are a virtual toss-up.

Planting the seed

No. 1 Seeds: 85-74-4
No. 2 Seeds: 81-60-2
No. 3 Seeds: 66-58-8
No. 4 Seeds: 57-55-1
No. 5 Seeds: 48-42
No. 6 Seeds: 43-40-1
No. 7 Seeds: 32-40-3
No. 8 Seeds: 38-36-3

Note these results are since the 1996 season, when our database first began charting seeds. Living up to it’s billing, No. 2 tries harder.

Burn baby burn

Like all things that are popular, they eventually burn out and revert back to the norm.

A combination of the ‘law of averages’ and an over-adjustment by the oddsmakers has seen the NBA Zig Zags start to go up in smoke this decade.

That’s confirmed by the fact that these plays are 330-308-19 overall since 2000, including 34-38-1 when on the road off back-to-back losses and 19-24-2 in championship games.

Higher than a kite

So then where is it then we can still expect to catch the best buzz with these NBA Zig Zags, you ask?

Twist these two up for size and remember, no bogarting: 1) Double Digit Dogs are 38-19-1 -and- 2) teams off a loss of 20 or more points are 101-59-2.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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