Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Wednesday, October 17, 2018


Best College & Pro Upsets OCT 20-21


MICHIGAN STATE OVER MICHIGAN BY 6

Are the Spartans laying in the weeds or what? Even after a bangedup Michigan State team (played without RB LJ Scott and WR Cody White) upset Penn State on the road in a thrilling 21-17 comeback win last Saturday, Sparty fi nds itself playing second fi ddle to hated Michigan again this weekend, opening as a 6.5-point home dog to the Wolverines. We’re somewhat perplexed by the line considering MSU head coach Mark Dantonio has OWNED Michigan the last decade – on both the ATS front and the money line, too – by posting an amazing 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS record in the series during that span. Dantonio has locked horns with Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh three times, winning twice on the scoreboard and going 3-0 ATS. Last year’s 14-10 win at the Big House by MSU has certainly stuck in the craw of Maize-and-Blue fans, who watched their Wolverines lose five turnovers while getting whistled for costly penalties at the most inopportune times. Hey, we’ll admit that Michigan has looked strong of late: its top ranked tough-as-nails defense has held 5 foes to season-low yards while the resurgent Wolverines offense has put up 80 points the last two weeks, including 444 yards of offense in last Saturday’s 38-13 blowout of Wisconsin. But with Dantonio expected to turn up the heat on opposing QB Shea Patterson, we’ll gladly side with Sparty’s top-ranked rush defense (62.3 RYPG) to frustrate the visitors. More support comes from MSU’s recent 7-0 ATS run versus conference revenge, which fits snugly with Michigan’s 3-11 ATS slide when playing on the road with Big Ten revenge. And seeing Michigan ranked No. 6 in the land while MSU barely made the poll with a No. 24 ranking will make certain the Spartans arrive with a giant chip on their shoulder. Remember: MSU was a 1-point
favorite in this game at the South Point in Las Vegas before the season started. We close our case with Dantonio’s 19-8-1 ATS as a conference dog with the Spartans, including 16-4-1 ATS against foes coming off consecutive wins, and THE CLINCHER: Michigan’s Harbaugh is 3-7 ATS in conference games after scoring 80 plus points in his last two games, including 0-6 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS win.



Maryland over IOWA by 1

The Hawkeyes have been road warriors this season, steamrolling Minnesota and Indiana in the last two weeks by a combined score of 90-47, and now they get chance to make up for their only loss this season, a 28-17 stumble on this fi eld against Wisconsin almost a month ago. Unfortunately, Iowa has been known to lay an egg or two after tangling with the Hoosiers, going 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS following Indiana, including 0-6 SUATS versus winning foes. The Hawkeyes are also known for producing unexpected clunkers, suffering 10 SU losses as TD favorites or better the previous 10 seasons. Holy Hayden Fry! Attracting far less attention than the 5-1
host is a 4-2 Maryland team that somehow weathered the storm of the ugly DJ Durkin situation early in the season to become a major surprise. The Terrapins have cashed in both meetings with Iowa since joining the Big Ten, and this year they’re one of the nation’s leaders in Red Zone Offense. Kirk Ferentz and company own a miserable 3-12 ATS log as conference favorites of more than 8 points, and with Penn State on deck, this looks like a great opportunity for a Homecoming chalk choke job. If you think not, then pay close attention to THE CLINCHER: The Hawkeyes are 2-9 ATS in games after scoring 35 plus points in their previous two outings under Kirk Ferentz, including 0-6 ATS if they scored 42 or more points in their last game.

NFL

NEW ORLEANS over Baltimore by 10

The Raven defense is hitting on all cylinders at the moment, currently the top-ranked stop-unit in the league and off a 21-0 shutout win at Tennessee last week. That’s where the good news ends, though, as our all-knowing database reports that NFL teams off whitewash wins are just 6-12 SU and 5-12-1 ATS when taking on rested foes the following game, including 0-4 SUATS if they scored 21 or fewer points in the victory. In addition, Baltimore QB Joe Flacco doesn’t like pumpkins as his 8-11 SU and 7-11-1 ATS career mark when the Black Birds are coming off a win during the month of October indicates, including 0-5 SUATS the last fi ve. Enter refreshed
New Orleans, currently residing atop the NFC South. The Saints will take the field knowing that NFL teams coming off a bye week that scored 36 or more points in their last game are a long-term 56-35-4 ATS winning proposition. And speaking of October, we saved the best for last with THE CLINCHER: Saints QB Drew Brees is 33-11 ATS in non-division games during October, including 14-1 ATS against foes coming off a win.

CHICAGO over NE by 10

The Brady bunch hit the highway following Sunday night’s classic 43-40 shootout win of Kansas City, snapping the Chiefs’ perfect start To the season while also putting New England back in the ‘home field advantage’ talk in the AFC playoff race. And like a political fact-checker, our well-oiled machine jumps right into the fray noting that the Pats are not a deserving favorite today as Bill Belichick’s boys are just 3-9-1 ATS when favored after scoring 40 or more points and taking on .600 or greater non-division opposition. In addition,the MIDWEEK ALERT notes that the Pats are surrendering a wobbly 4.5 Yards Per Rush on the season, which fits like Gloria Steinem on a Donald Trump ticket – not so good – next to Chicago’s 4.4 Yards Per Rush offense. Meanwhile, Da Bears have rushed for 120 or more yards in 4 of their five games this season, which fits like OJ’s glove into a New England squad that evaporates to 31-71-4 ATS as favorites in games in which they allow 120 rushing yards. We wrap it all up, though, with THE CLINCHER: Chicago is 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS at home against AFC East foes coming off a win, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when the Bears are coming off a loss.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Friday, October 12, 2018


Best College & Pro Upsets, OCT 13-14


ARKANSAS over Ole Miss 8

The Razorbacks bring a rock-solid 16-7 ATS home dog log into this battle and with 17 returning starters back from last year’s squad, look for the Pigs to break through into the SEC win column today. Important to consider their excellent record in this series, going 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS, with a 6-1 ATS log at home and 6-1 ATS advantage as dogs. Mississippi QB Jordan Ta’amu was 21-of-24 passing for 374 yards and threw for fi ve TDs in the Rebels’ 70-21 rout of UL-Monroe last week. Ole Miss took its fi rst drive to the house, then scored a TD on their next eight possession, amassing a school-record 826 total yards in the process. However, with our love of fading teams off record-setting performances, we’re ordering up some BBQ with the Hogs today. Mississippi is one of three FBS squads with a 500-yard defense this season, and we love fading 500-yard road favorites. THE CLINCHER: The Rebels are 7-23-1 ATS as road favorites, including 3-17-1 ATS in games in which they are surrendering more than 13 PPG, and 4-13 SU and 2-14 ATS when coming off a win.



IOWA STATE over West Virginia by 10

A for-sure shocker in Stillwater last Saturday when the Cyclones stunned Oklahoma State as double-digit underdogs behind 3rd string freshman QB Brock Purdy, and without star RB David Montgomery. Suddenly, the Clones have three legitimate quarterbacks in Kyle Kempt, Zeb Noland and now Purdy. Who is this guy? Purdy, a 3-star recruit who was pursued by Alabama after he threw for 7,700 yards in his final two seasons in Texas high school ball. Purdy tossed four touchdowns and ran for one while gaining 402 yards in his debut against the Cowboys and will need to thwart the Mountaineers’ strong start this season (outscoring foes 62-14 in 1st quarter of games). Iowa State HC Matt Campbell (the answer to our TRIVIA TEASER on page 2) looks ready to go, too, with his 13-2 ATS record as a dog against foes coming off a SUATS win, including 11-1 ATS in conference games, and 5-0 ATS at home. Whew! Be aware that West Virginia has covered the last four meetings in this series, but the Hillbillies are a 5-0 ‘Fat Cat’ fade from last week’s SMART BOX – and we ain’t fading that, not with this added support from THE CLINCHER: 5-0 college football road favorites who scored 30 or more points in their last game and won by 30 or fewer points are 4-24 ATS in Game Six if they won 10 or fewer games last season and are facing an avenging opponent.

NFL

TAMPA BAY over Atlanta by 7

Oh how the once mighty have fallen. From its Super Bowl appearance two seasons ago to the bottom of the NFC South cellar, the Falcons can blame it all on injuries to a defense that is allowing nearly 400 YPG. Thus, this becomes a matchup of two teams allowing more points per game than any others in the league this season. That’s because the Dirty Birds are coughing up 40 PPG in their last three contests while the Bucs are yielding more points per game than any team in the loop. However, its Atlanta laying points that doesn’t fit here. Not when they stand just 5-13 ATS as chalk against opponents coming off a loss, including 0-4 ATS since its aforementioned Super Bowl appearance. Meanwhile, Tampa checks in 5-1 ATS away when coming off a bye.

DENVER over LA Rams by 6

The Broncos are riding rare 0-3 SUATS and ITS streak entering this contest and are now just 4-13 SU and 2-14-1 ATS in their last 17 overall games since a year ago. Ugh. So what could we possibly like about them here you wonder? For openers, Denver is 21-12 SU and 22-10-1 ATS as a non-division home underdog, including 9-2 SUATS when coming off a loss of more than 14 points. They are also 5-1 SUATS at home when riding a three game-exact losing skid accompanied by a three-game ATS losing streak. Enter the best the NFC has to offer, the starlets from Los Angeles who have scored 33 or more points in all fi ve contests this season, and were favored by 2.5 points in Vegas before the season started. With the Rams 0-6 ATS in games after facing Seattle when taking on sub .500 foes, and just 3-15 ATS away off an away game when tackling non-division foes, we wryly hand if off to THE CLINCHER: Denver is 10-2-1 ATS as home dogs against NFC opponents, including 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS with a win percentage of .400 or greater as well as 5-0 SUATS before Game Seven of the season.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, October 04, 2018


BEST College & Pro UPSETS, Week of OCT 5-6


VIRGINIA TECH over Notre Dame by 6

> Don’t look now but the Irish currently reside in the 5th slot to in the CFB Playoffs at the Westgate SuperBook (12/1 behind Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia). Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is 500/1 – a value proposition we are playing. All the Hokies need to do is win this game, then beat Clemson in the ACC title game, and without an unforeseen slip-up… you never know. The bottom line is the gap between these two teams is not as wide as Vegas implied Tech bounced back last week from that puzzling road loss at Old Dominion in startling fashion by dominating a pretty good Duke team in a dramatic 31-14 win in Durham (Marc’s 5* College Game of the Month). Backup QB Ryan Willis, who started in parts of two seasons at Kansas and was the ACC’s most experienced backup, stepped in for starting QB Josh Jackson (suffered a broken fibula versus ODU) and responded by going 17-for-26 for 332 yards with 3 TDs and 0 interceptions. Besides, the Irish are a 5-0 Fat Cat SMART BOX fade this week… and they’re taking on a Hokies team that is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 appearances as a home dog. In closing, we turn it over to THE CLINCHER: Virginia Tech is 48-3 SU in its last 51 home games against non-conference opposition – with only ONE LOSS by more than a touchdown.



TEXAS over Oklahoma by 6

The latest chapter in one of college football’s most endearing rivalries, the Red River Rivalry, takes place at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, with the game appropriately starting at high noon ET. The Sooners entered this game off a loss last season, a situation in which they were 28-0 SU and 21-7 ATS in conference games (they responded with a 29-24 win). This year, though, they enter off a 33-point win-and-cover knowing they are just 4-11 ATS in this series when coming off a pointspread win. Not only that, but both OU head coach Lincoln Riley and quarterback Kyler Murray are making their inaugural appearance as a 5-0 Fat Cat SMARTBOX fade – and we don’t think they’ll like what the sagacious square has to saThe last four in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less, and the Horns hold a 5-0 ATS series advantage in the last five meetings. Texas is 10-2-1 ATS in Game Six, including 5-0 ATS the last five, and 6-1 ATS as a single-digit underdog. Currently riding a 4-game win streak (their longest since 2013), a win on Saturday vaults the Longhorns past the Sooners atop the Big 12 standings.THE CLINCHER: Texas head coach Tom Herman is 8-4 SU and 11-1 ATS as an underdog, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with a winning record.

NFL

> BUFFALO over Tennessee by 6
>
Titans hit the road after last week’s come from behind OT win over the Eagles and the MIDWEEK ALERT notes that 3-1 Tennessee has coughed up season-high yards in half of their games thus far. Furthermore, this from the well-oiled machine: away teams are just 13-41 SU and 16-38 ATS since 1992 after having upset the defending Super Bowl champions in their previous game. Not good news for the Titans today. Meanwhile, the Bills enter off an embarrassing 22-0 whitewash loss against the Packers knowing they are 6-1 SU in games after having been blanked. Better yet, NFL teams coming off a shutout loss who were in the playoffs the previous season tend to bounce back as home dogs the following games, going 8-1-1 ATS since 1990 when taking 3 or more points.

SEATTLE over LA Rams by 4


The Rams are coming off an NFL record-setting effort in last Thursday’s win over Minnesota when QB Jared Goff tossed for 465 yards and 5 TDs, establishing a new watermark in Thursday games. Goff is also the fi rst NFL QB to pass for 400 yards and 5 TDs on 3 days of rest. With it, the Rams are now 4-0 for the first time since 2001 when they went to the Super Bowl (and lost) and – like the 4-0 Chiefs – they have surrendered season-low yards in three games this campaign. That’s not good news for a recent record-setting team that is 0-9 ATS as favorites of 7 or less points against avenging division opponents. Granted, things are not pretty in Seattle where disgruntled DB Earl Thomas fl ipped off the Seahawks bench while being carted off with a broken leg last week. The good news for Seattle is its 8-1 ATS mark as a dog when coming off a win and facing an opponent coming off consecutive wins. Furthermore, the savvy machine reminds us that 2-2 NFL teams in Game Five coming off consecutive wins are 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in this role since 2013. We seal the deal, though, with THE CLINCHER: Seattle is 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS as a home dog of more than 2 points under Pete Carroll, including 9-2 SU and 11-0 ATS the last eleven games.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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