Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Friday, November 16, 2018


College & Pro Upsets, NOV 17-18


TENNESSEE over Missouri by 6

With just three actual SEC matchups this week, CBS decided to grab this conflict as its main afternoon game and give Alabama the week off since they are playing the Citadel. As Gary Danielson said during last week’s Bama contest, he had a lot of experience in his time at Purdue as a quarterback in games like this. He was referring to a team like Tennessee, who is seeking bowl eligibility with a 5-5 record. This is Senior Day for the Vols and those players that have been in Knoxville four or five years have been through a lot of criticism and want to go bowling after missing last year. Missouri was supposed to vanquish Vanderbilt last week and had to come from behind instead to win, 33-28, as a 14.5-point home favorite. In all likelihood, the Tigers’ bowl positioning is not going to change much with a win or loss where they have checkerboard end zones. Plus, Mizzou is 1-5 ATS after allowing 450 or more yards and 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS away versus .500 or greater opponents. We’ll side with the hungry home underdogs who are 4-1 ATS in their last fi ve SEC contests and off two straight victories to cover. THE CLINCHER: CFB home teams off consecutive home wins, the last a SU underdog win of more than 14 points, are 12-2-2 ATS, including 6-0 ATS against foes coming off consecutive wins.




Minnesota over Northwestern by 8

Both teams stared down adversity last week and emerged with big wins. Northwestern clinched the Big Ten West crown by beating Iowa at Kinnick Stadium, holding the Hawkeyes to a puny 64 rushing yards while piling up 184 yards on the ground themselves (165 belonged to RB Isaiah Bowser). Meanwhile, Minnesota limped
back home after a sobering 55-31 loss at Illinois to take on redhot Purdue, knowing a loss to the Boilermakers would doom the Gophers to a 2nd straight season without reaching a bowl under HC P.J. Fleck. We guess Fleck’s ‘row the boat’ message finally took hold because Minnesota routed the Boilers, 41-10, as a 10.5-point
home dog. But while last Saturday’s win over Iowa clinched bowl-eligible status for the Wildcats, the Gophers still need one win in their last two games to go bowling–and we think they’ve got a better shot at beating Northwestern here than taking out Wisconsin at Madison next week. Let’s face it… the 24th-ranked Purple Cats’
numbers don’t match those of other Power Five division champions. Their offense is ranked No. 112 in the country and they’re being outgained by an average of 23 YPG. Furthermore, our History Book reminds us Northwestern is just 1-7 ATS as road chalk against foes coming off a win, including 0-6 ATS as favorites of 6 or fewer points. Minnesota has also had this game circled since last season after an ugly 39-0 loss in Evanston cost the 5-win Gophers a bowl bid. This is an ideal spot for a payback, and with Fleck’s team standing 5-1 SU at home this season, we’re there in this double bowl get-up-and-letdown spot.

NFL

Philadelphia over New Orleans by 3


If you’re trembling in your boots at the thought of jumping in front of the Who Dey Express, we understand. But like a much-needed visit to the shrink can help ease your fears, so too does knowing that defending Super Bowl champions have been at their best in underdog roles. These ring-bearers love playing the disrespect card, going 52-37-4 ATS in these games dating back to 1981. Better yet, bring them in as red-faced dogs in games when coming off a SU favorite loss and they respond with aplomb, going 17-8-2 ATS in these games. And for even more, see the ‘THE CLINCHER’ outlined below, as well as the INCREDIBLE STAT on page 3. Meanwhile, the Saints enter just 2-10 ATS at home in non-division frays when coming off a non-division contest after scoring 40 or more points. The bottom line in this league is “what goes up must come down” as well as “what goes down must come up”. We seal the deal with THE CLINCHER: Defending Super Bowl champions who are underdogs when coming off a SU favorite loss are 8-3 SU and 9-0-2 ATS in this situation when facing foes coming off a win of 7 or more points.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, November 08, 2018


Best College & Pro Upsets, NOV 10-12


WISCONSIN over Penn State by 6

The Nittany Lions were installed as 1.5-point favorites in this game at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas before the season started. Now, this inflated number seems to fly in the face of the Lions’ 42-7 beating at the hands of Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines on Saturday. We understand the Badgers have underperformed but so too have the Lions, who enter on a 4-game ATS losing skein, losing the stats in each game, which makes them another ‘leaking oil’ favorite. In addition, Wisky is a stellar 5-0 ATS since 1990 when seeking triple revenge-exact. Meanwhile, since taking over for Gary Andersen after the 2014 season, head coach Paul Chryst is 40-10 SU in Madison, including 14-3 SU and 12-5 ATS away, with only 3 losses by more than 7 points. This is still a hugely important game for Bucky, as Wisconsin is tied with Purdue, just a game behind Northwestern in the Big Ten West.



NFL


NEW York Giants over SF by 7

Niners QB Nick Mullins’ debut start last week was one for the record books. His 151.9 passer rating was the second best ever (behind Marcus Mariota in 2015) for a quarterback in his first NFL game. The ex-practice squad signal-caller stunned the NFL nation when he took apart the Oakland Raiders last Thursday. Then again the Raiders are falling apart like a cheap suit these days, as their reputed “dive for draft picks” crusade is well under way. Frisco returns after Mullins’ coming out party in another prime-time affair sporting bodacious Monday Night numbers, including 12-1 ATS the last twelve. The problem we have, however, is the Niners are just 1-12 ATS as a favorite the last five years, with the only cover by Jimmy Garoppolo (now on the DL for the season). In addition, they are also 1-7 ATS against rested foes coming off consecutive losses. And while the well-rested visiting Giants aren’t much, they set up THE CLINCHER: 125 or less NFL teams with a week of rest are 19-3-1 ATS when facing an opponent coming off a win.

Detroit over CHICAGO by 3

When we find a team that scores 40 points in a game while putting up only 190 yards of offense, we’re first in line to fade them the following game. And when they are laying more points at home than they have won by in the last six years in the series, we’re prepared to snap the rubber band. The Lions enter trailing the Bears by two full games following last week’s disappointing 24-9 loss at Minnesota. Its sets this game up, though, as Detroit is 5-1 ATS following a division game in which they failed to score 10 points. On the fl ip side, Chicago is 1-6 ATS after scoring 40 or more points when facing losing foes coming off a SUATS loss. Strap on Matthew
Stafford’s 9-1 SU mark in his last ten starts in this series and we’re on our way to the window.














































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Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, November 01, 2018


Top College & Pro Upsets, NOV 3-4


WEST VIRGINIA over Texas by 10

With Texas losing to Oklahoma State, Bevo has fallen into a first place tie with Oklahoma and West Virginia at 4-1. For the Longhorns a victory would be ultra important because they would control their destiny to becoming Big 12 regular season champions. However, if we have learned anything about coach Tom Herman’s club, they are seldom trustworthy. While Texas was not actually in the ‘Bubble Burst’ role, they sure appear to be so as they just coughed up the top spot inthe Big 12 conference with last week’s choke job at Oklahoma State. Another bad sign for the Horns, they are 1-6 ATS with a winning record when coming off a SU favorite loss. The Mountaineers will land in Austin with two extra days of rest after blasting Baylor at 58-14, handily covering the -14.5 points. Dana Holgorsen might not be the sharpest coach in college football but his ‘Teers are 4-2 ATS against Texas and 7-2 ATS as Big 12 road underdogs of a touchdown or less. And there’s always THE CLINCHER: The Mountaineers are 13-4 SU and 14-3 ATS away against foes coming off a SU favorite loss, including 6-0 SUATS the last six and 8-0 ATS when coming off a SUATS win.



IOWA over Purdue by 11

Who can get up off the mat after last week’s discouraging road losses? Trailing 30-24 in the fi nal quarter of a seesaw slugfest at Penn State, Iowa had a 1st-and-goal at the Lions’ 3-yard line with 3:00 left – and QB Nate Stanley promptly tossed a game-killing pick. "This one’s going to hurt,” said head Hawkeye Kirk Ferentz. Purdue also managed to hang around for most of its battle against Michigan State but a 48-yard breakaway TD pass reception put the game out of reach for the Boilers with less than 2 minutes remaining. “We did not get ready to play this game,” said Purdue HC Jeff Brohm. Okay, boys… no excuses this time. We’ve been big Boiler backers this season but not this week, not with them just 1-3 In The Stats their last four games. And certainly not with ‘Due now 2-10 SUATS in its last 12 conference games when coming off a SU favorite loss. Iowa lost to the Boilermakers last year as 6.5-point home chalk, 24-14, but the series visitor has cashed every time in the last eight meetings. The Hawkeyes also stand 4-0 ATS in the second of back-to-back road games, and their 8-0 ITS success this season means they’re a SMART BOX play to boot. We have great respect for Purdue’s Brohm but Ferentz has seen it all, calling the shots on the Iowa sideline for the last 20 years. That’s a perfect segue into THE CLINCHER: Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz is 15-5 ATS in conference games with an equal or better record when both teams are coming off a loss, including 12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS when coming off a loss of 6 or more points.

NFL


PITTSBURGH over Baltimore by 1.

Don’t look now but the Steelers are on their muscle. After a troublesome 1-2-1 start to the season, the Steel Curtain is coming down hard on opponents, entering today’s game on a 3-0 SUATS win skein. Meanwhile, the fast-starting Ravens are backpedaling, having dropped 3 of their last four games after opening 3-1 in September. With it our well-oiled machine chimes in noting that the Steelers are 20-7-2 ATS as division dogs since 2000, including 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS when coming off a double-digit win. Big Ben and the boys will be looking to avenge a 26-14 home loss suffered to the Black Birds last month knowing the Steelers are 5-0 ATS as dogs in this series when coming off a win of 7 or more points. In a matchup of two teams on opposite ends of the teeter-totter, we wrap it up with THE CLINCHER: Pittsburgh is 11-2 ATS as a division dog behind Ben Roethlisberger against foes with at least one win on the season, including 5-0 ATS when coming off ATS win or 3 points or more.

Green Bay over NEW ENGLAND by 1


The Packers bring the type of numbers we like – namely an underdog with the better offense and the better defense – into this battle, something we’re sure our sister publication the MIDWEEK ALERT will likely comment more on when the publication comes out later this week. The hard-luck cheeseheads enter tonight’s game at 3-3-1 on the season knowing they are 34-16 SU and 29-20-1 ATS in games with a .500 or less record behind QB Aaron Rodgers, including 12-3 SU and 11-3-1 ATS against foes sporting a winning record (5-1 ATS as a dog). Not to mention Rodgers’ superb 5-0 ATS career mark as a dog of more than 6 points. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t call out the fact that the Cheesecake Factory is 9-0 ATS versus non-division opposition when coming off a nondivision game and facing a foe off a division contest. Meanwhile, the Pats enter off Monday night’s late win-and-cover over division rival Buffalo and stands just 7-9 SU and 5-9-2 ATS in Monday night division followups. Look for the Pack to improve to 7-1-1 ATS the last nine games in this series, including 5-0 ATS in their last five at Foxborough, tonight. TS win of 3 or more points.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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