Friday, September 28, 2012

Marc Lawrence College and Pro Plays Sept. 29-30

College Upsets


Ohio St over MICHIGAN ST by 10

We can’t blame you if you’re sick of seeing the Buckeyes bolded and underlined but they do arrive in East Lansing with some ‘INCREDIBLE’numbers. Beside the 84% proposition outlined on page three, they have treated Spartan Stadium like their own private watering hole since 1992, posting a 6-1 SU and ATS mark. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last four as conference road favorites or dogs of 3 or less points and that ties in nicely to the Spartans’ 0-6 ATS log at home off a spread loss of more than 6 points when the number is also between the threes (-3 to +3). Sparty’s 8-1 ATS mark versus undefeated conference opposition from Game Five out is certainly a concern but the Buckeyes’ home for the holidays scenario (no Big Ten title or Bowl game) means a big effort in every conference contest this season. Even Urban Meyer, who has been damaging his non-conference pointspread reputation of late, chips in with a 10-1 ATS mark as a pick or dog versus a foe off an ATS loss by more than 3 points. You may be upset if you play the moneyburning Buckeyes, but, then again, we feel you’ll be upset if you don’t.



KENT STATE over Ball State by 6


A convincing win at Buffalo last week fi nds the Flashes 6-2 SU and 5-2

ATS over their last eight games dating back to last season. While that’s

not exactly smokin’ in the boys’ room for most, it is a big deal for a Kent

State squad that hasn’t registered a winning season since 2001. It will get

tougher, today, though as the surprising Cardinals arrive with a 3-1 SU

and 4-0 ATS record, including a pair of non-conference wins over Indiana

and South Florida. Well, if you’re sitting in a Kent classroom thinking

what we just told you was a drag, then you’ll be happy to know that

only looking at the fi nal results ain’t our bag. Nope, not to bust balls, but

we’re really not all that impressed with the Cardinals as they have been

outgained in each of their last three games while allowing season high

– or 2nd high – yards in all four contests. We may not be teachers so we

won’t fi ll you up with all the rules but that’s a sign that Ball State won’t

be smoking in this school… as well as a sure indicator of a team that’s

about to go bust. Lay the small spot as the series host improves to 4-0 SU

and 3-0-1 ATS since 2006.





NC State over Miami FLA by 10

They may be sitting atop the ACC Coastal division but it’s tough to

get a read on this season’s Hurricane squad. Case in point: last week

at Georgia Tech. Ready? Miami (+14) jumped out to a 19-0 lead, gave

up 36 unanswered points to the Jackets, then went on a 17-0 run to

send the game into overtime – before winning on a 25-yard TD run

by Mike James. That’s pacemaker stuff, folks, as our database warns:

home chalk off an OT win in which they scored over 30 points are

6-14-1 ATS against a foe off a win of 20 or more points the last ten

years. The Wolfpack bring the better numbers on both sides of the

ball, offensively and defensively, into this contest and are a succulent

9-0 ATS as dogs against an opponent off a SU dog win. But what really

gets us salivating is the fact that Miami’s rush defense has been ripped

for 287 yards by Ga Tech (4.9 YPC), 233 yards by Bethune-Cookman (4.4

YPC) and 288 yards by Kansas State (4.8 YPC). Does it get better? Try

State head coach O’Brien’s 19-4 ATS record versus a foe off a SU dog

win – 19-1 ATS the last 20! – including 14-1 ATS in conference games.

The Canes are just 7-12 ATS of late as chalk in the tropics and own a sad

1-5 ATS log as conference favorites off a SU dog win. The Wolfpack’s

282 rushing yards against The Citadel were the most for N.C. State in a

game in seven years, not a good sign for the ‘U’. As much as we like Al

Golden, his young and fragile squad is primed for a letdown of major

proportions here. The Pack makes a little conference noise today.



Pro Upsets



Kansas City over San Diego by 11

Another NFL home dog comes front and center – and this one has

some teeth. The Chiefs return to the teepee at Arrowhead off last

week’s shocker over the Saints in N’Awlins, sporting a spiffy 17-

4-1 ATS home dog log during the fi rst four games of the season,

including 9-0-1 ATS in division games and 5-0 ATS when playing off

a win. On the other side of the coin, the Chargers folded like a deck

of cards last week in a lethargic effort at home against the Falcons.

San Diego has been outgained in two of their three contests this

season and is 0-5 ATS away with revenge during the fi rst four games

of the campaign. Meanwhile, our brainiac database chimes in with

this beauty: 1-2 NFL dogs in Game Four, off a SU underdog win,

are 24-8-2 ATS since 1980, including 12-2-1 ATS at home. With the

Featherheads’ well documented prowess as the best home puppy

in the loop – and having won the stats in all three games to date

– look for the NFL home dog brigade to continue here today. You

know what to do.


NY Giants over Philly by11

Life in Philly was super-fi ne following the Eagles’ 4-0 performance in

the preseason this year. Talk of a new dream season was re-energized

and a 2-0 start to the 2012 journey fi t like Charles Barkley in a new

Armani suit. A visit last Sunday to Arizona saw the threads begin to

unravel when Michael Vick and Philadelphia choked like a mad dog

in a 21-point loss that was worse than it appeared. As a result, the

Green Birds are now -6 in turnovers and, despite outgaining every

opponent, they’ve been relegated to here-we-go-again status. It

certainly doesn’t help their chances knowing they are 1-8 SU and

0-9 ATS as division hosts when coming off a non-division road game.

Nor does the fact that defending Super Bowl champions are 6-1 ATS

as dogs when facing an opponent that was upset as a favorite in its

last game. With our AWESOME ANGLE lined up squarely against the

Eagles, and the Giants having enjoyed an extra three days of prep

time, look for the visiting team in this series to improve to 10-3 SU

and ATS here tonight. The Big Apple takes another bite out of this

Philly cheesesteak.



St. Louis over Seattle by 10

Thanks to the replacement refs, Russell Wilson became the fi rst

quarterback in NFL history to toss a game winning interception in

Monday night’s out-of-the-ordinary, Twilight Zone fi nish against the

Packers. Now, perhaps after that amazing gaffe, the NFL will come to

its senses and employ REAL REFS in real games. (It’s amazing how a

multi-billion dollar industry insists on employing part-time janitors to

clean up their owners’ mess). Commentary aside, Wilson will also be

looking to become the fi rst of the fi ve rookie starting signal callers

in the NFL this season to not only cover the spread as a favorite –

but to actually win a game when favored, as these newbies are 0-4

SU and ATS collectively in games when laying points to begin their

professional careers. Seattle’s anemic, dead-last ranked offense,

certainly doesn’t support the linemaker’s choice of favoritism in this

contest. Nor does the Seahawks’ 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS mark in Game

Fours of the season. Granted, Seattle’s been best in this series (9-1 ATS

the last ten) but the Rams are coming around as home dogs (3-0-1

ATS the last four) and until proven otherwise, Jeff Fisher is still king

of the league when taking points. Rams too tough today.

campaign. Meanwhile, our brainiac database chimes in with

this beauty: 1-2 NFL dogs in Game Four, off a SU underdog win,

are 24-8-2 ATS since 1980, including 12-2-1 ATS at home. With the

Featherheads’ well documented prowess as the best home puppy

in the loop – and having won the stats in all three games to date

– look for the NFL home dog brigade to continue here today. You

know what to do.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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