Friday, October 09, 2015
Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets Weekend Oct. 10-11
Oklahoma St over WEST VIRGINIA by 3
When is a dog a ‘Fat Cat’? When they’re 5-0 and taking more than 5 points! At least, that’s what our SMART BOX tells us with the midway point of this season rapidly approaching. It also doesn’t hurt when revenge is mixed in as the Mountaineers handed the Cowboys their initial loss of the 2013 season and their first home loss during th2014 campaign, bringing OSU’s 4-1-1 ATS mark away with conference payback into play. Mike Gundy’s men are also 8-1 ATS in Game Six of the season and 5-1 ATS after clashing with Kansas State. Meanwhile, the Mounties are an unreliable 0-5 ATS as home favorites of less than 10 points and 2-10-1 ATS at home versus a conference foe with revenge. And with 19 players who started six or more games last season returning to Stillwater, you can see why Orange may be the new black in the Big 12 (with TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma still residing in the conference, believe that and we’ll tell you than Rick Pitino didn’t try to bring some of those alleged Louisville escorts to Porcini’s Italian Restaurant for some ‘fine dining’). Nevertheless, we’ll ride with the Cowboys into Morgantown with the final word coming from The Clincher: WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen is 2-8 ATS as a conference home favorite, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS off a loss and 0-5 ATS versus a foe off a win.
Georgia Tech over CLEMSON by 1
Mission accomplished. We survived and beat Notre Dame and we are No. 6 in the Amway Coaches Poll poll. Teams like Clemson that get lost in the afterglow following a win over the Irish own a lousy 5-13 ATS record since 1990, including a 2-8 ATS mark when at home. The Tigers are also 2-5 ATS in the second of three straight home games and now face an angry, fired-up nest of Yellow Jackets that have not only lost three straight games but were upset by Duke and North Carolina in the last two. Tech has been able to move the ball on Clemson in the past four meetings in this series, averaging 430 YPG, including 305 YPG rushing and 5.9 YPC. The Techsters are also 13-3 ATS as road dogs off consecutive home games and 7-3 ATS versus conference revenge. In addition, Paul Johnson’s crew has covered their last four games as a dog versus ranked teams by a combined 63 points (+2.5 #18 Clemson, +10.5 #8 Georgia, +4 #2 Florida State and +6 #8 Mississippi State). Those are some pretty powerful numbers for a pissed-off dog! Grab what you can and take a ride with the Ramblin’ Wreck.
KANSAS STATE over TCU by 6
When asked by a pre-game interviewer last week how his TCU team would deal with the enormous number of injuries to key defensive personnel and still subdue a revenge-minded Texas squad in desperate need of a win, head coach Gary Patterson looked across the field andsaid, “We’ve beaten better with less.” Meeeeow, baby! Okay, so the Froggie defense finally awoke in the aforementioned 50-7 de-horning of Bevo, but here they’ll be facing a Kansas State offense that has the tools to remind ‘em how they gave up 89 points in the two games before hooking the ‘Horns. The Wildcat stop-unit always brings it at home, too: in their previous seven games at Manhattan, K-State’s ‘D’ has limited foes to just 17.2 PPG. And how hard is it backing Bill Snyder (as Keith Jackson might say, the Grandaddy of College Coaches), a man that’s been an annuity at home in his career playing in the stadium that bears his name (see this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2 for a full report). When it comes to covering the pointspread, Kansas State has the best record in the FBS since the start of the 2011 season, going 35-15-1 ATS in lined contests (70%). And when it comes recent ATS history, the Wildcats are also on top of the Frogs, going 4-0 ATS in the last four series meetings and 9-1 ATS in the last ten here at BSFS while TCU counters with a lifeless 0-5 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games and an 0-3 ATS away versus Big 12 revengers. With backup like that, you’ll understand why we refuse to lay a touchdown on the road with a Horned Frog defensive unit that’s allowing 28 points and 448 yards per game in FBS wars this season. Besides, the SMART BOX demands we take a stand and fade the Frogs today.
TENNESSEE over Buffalo by 8
The Bills squandered a golden opportunity to stay within arm’s length of division-leading New England, but instead amassed a whopping 17 penalties in a 14-point home loss to the Giants last week. And with it comes cause for concern as for the fourth consecutive season they have started a campaign on a 2-2 note. With that, they ride a gloomy 1-6 ATS mark since 2000 into this contest in Game Fives when sporting a .500 ledger. Suddenly, all the merriment that Rex Ryan brought to Buffalo is under scrutiny. A 3-6 SUATS record in its last nine games versus the AFC South doesn’t help matters. Nor does a disastrous 0-5 ATS non-division away log in games when playing off a SU favorite loss, or the fact that Ryan is 0-3 SUATS in his last three games versus rested opponents. In addition, the Bills are 6-13 ATS as road favorites off a loss versus a foe off a loss, including 0-8 ATS before Game Ten of the season. The Titans enter with a week of rest and stand 14-6 SU and 12-6-2 ATS in games against the Bills, including 4-0 ATS when Buffalo arrives off a SU favorite loss. With Tennessee’s offense ‘on the improve’ every game this season, we turn to the all-knowing database as it supplies The Clincher: Rex Ryan is 7-13 SU and 5-15 ATS In his NFL career in games off a SU favorite loss, including 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS the last twelve.
Written by John Pricci
can also be found at Playbook.com
- One Click Handicapping
Friday, October 02, 2015
Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets, Oct. 3-4
Arkansas over TENNESSEE by 3
We had the Hogs in this spot last week and they failed to deliver the money when Texas A&M blew a game-winning field goal and sent the game to overtime – where the Aggies won by 7 points. But we’re right back on the Razorbacks here versus an opponent who, for the second time this season, had a statement-making win in their grasp but let it slip away. Yes, Tennessee keeps finding new ways to lose games in heart-breaking fashion: last week the Gators grabbed the lead with a 63-yard TD pass from Will Grier to Antonio Calloway with 1:26 left on 4th-and-14 to overcome a 27-14 deficit. Then the Vols saw a 55-yard FG go inches wide on the final play of the game. Wow...all this on the heels of losing in double overtime to Oklahoma two weeks prior after blowing a 17-0 lead! Bad enough that Tennessee is just 1-4 ATS as chalk after facing Florida but last Saturday’s Gator gut-wrencher at the Swamp could put this young Vols team in a serious tailspin. That’s not a prescription for success against a hungry, pissed-off Arkansas squad that’s gone 7-2 ATS of late in this series, including 5-1 ATS when placed in the role of underdog. If that’s not enough to make you go hog-wild in tonight’s game at Neyland Stadium, there’s always The Clincher: College Football teams off a SUATS loss who faced the toughest schedule in the nation last year are 21-6 SUATS since 1980 when playing off back-to-back SUATS losses, including 17-2 ATS when facing a .750 or less opponent.
NEW York Giants over Buffalo by 8
Don’t take this the wrong way. The Bills have been good to us this season and we certainly hate to bite the hand that feeds us. But from a handicapping perspective, sometimes “you gotta do what you gotta do”. After opening the season in grand style with a huge win at home over Indianapolis, Buffalo returns home off back-to-back division duels with Miami and New England. Sure, the Bills are 24-6 ATS after facing the Dolphins when taking on a losing foe. But this is Rex Ryan’s team and he is just 4-5 SUATS in games after facing the Fish. That Ryan is also just 8-14-2 ATS against the NFC, including 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS the last five, serves us well, too. In addition, teams with new coaches, off a SU division upset win, are 11-26 SU and 11-22-4 ATS in their next game when facing a non-division foe off a win since 2000. Enter the Giants, off Thursday’s much needed win over the Redskins, sporting a neat 7-1 ATS road record in games off back-to-back home contests. The G-Men are also 7-1 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games versus AFC East opposition. With Buffy just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games in this series, we ultimately turn it over to The Clincher: The Giants are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in their next game after playing on Thursdays.
Miami over New York Jets by 7
Look out London... here they come. Get ready for some early morning NFL football when these two teams kick off at 9:30 AM ET (or sun rise on the West Coast) In the first of three scheduled NFL games at Wembley Stadium this season. Today’s matchup represents the first divisional battle in London with Miami making its third trip across the pond, with the Jets flying over for the first time ever. The Fish cashed the chips in each of their previous two visits to London and now take flight in a state of fright following last week’s home-opening debacle against Buffalo. It sets the table for today’s fray, though, as NFL teams arriving in London, off a SU favorite loss in its last game, are 4-1 SU and ATS. On the flip side, the Flyboys are just 7-14-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a division favorite. With the Dolphins 3-0 SUATS as dogs with revenge in this series, look for the pressure of playing away from South Beach to take a bit of heat away from Joe Philbin’s toasted fanny here in this tea-and-crumpets breakfast at Wembley. And if that’s not enough, there is always The Clincher: Miami is 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS in games with a losing record under Philbin, including 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS when off a loss (6-0 ATS during the first half of the season.
Written by John Pricci
can also be found at Playbook.com
- One Click Handicapping
Wednesday, September 23, 2015
College and Pro Upsets—Sept. 26 Weekend
East Carolina over VA Tech by 7
Fool us once, shame on you. Fool us twice, shame on us. Fool us nine times, shame on the men who married Zsa Zsa Gabor. As she put it, “I was a marvelous housekeeper. Every time I leave a man I keep his house.” Well, it appears Frank Beamer has taken a page out of Zsa Zsa’s book as he is just 2-9 ATS in his last 11 tries as a road favorite,
including 0-3 SUATS when playing off an away game. And this ridiculous line must have Va Tech’s name and past reputation written all over it as the Pirates are 17-3 SU in their last 20 home games, with only one loss coming by more than 5 points. Yes, after bowling each of the last three years, Ruffi n McNeil’s men find themselves in a 1-2 hole to start the season but there should be no panic as the Pirates are 17-12 SU and 21-8 ATS in games with a losing record since 2005, including 16-3 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points. And don’t forget: McNeil is 5-0 ATS in his last five versus the ACC and 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS off back-to-back losses. Even series history sides with ECU as the Pirates are 5-1-1 ATS since this matchup reconvened in 2007 after a seven-year hiatus. And while Green Acres isn’t the place to be for Zsa Zsa’s sister, Eva, Greenville certainly isn’t the right spot for Beamer’s boys this last Saturday in September. Not with the Hokies staring dead-ahead to a revenger against Pitt and this word from The Clincher: Va Tech is 0-10-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points versus an avenging opponent off a SU loss.
Arkansas over Texas A&M by 6
The Jerry’s World series has Arkansas a touchdown underdog, which is almost a 12-point swing from the preseason line offered around in Vegas. The Razorbacks were #18 in the preseason AP poll while the Aggies were unranked, but after back-to-back losses by the Hogs, they’re now a public fade. That’s a major mistake we’ll jump on. Arkansas has covered six of seven in the series and won the money in their last five conference revengers. With the Hogs currently at 1-2 on the season and A&M having beaten them each of last three years, the Aggies’ focus – at least from the players perspective – has changed and instead finds them looking ahead to back-to-back-to-back revengers versus Mississippi State, Alabama and Ole Miss. In addition, Texas A&M is also 1-5 ATS their last six at neutral sites, 1-5 ATS as a conference favorite of more than 7 points and 3-8 ATS away from home off back-to-back home games. And did we mention that Kevin Sumlin is 7-16-1 ATS as a favorite versus a conference foe with revenge, including 0-12 ATS when favored by less than 14 points?
The Fresno St over SAN JOSE ST by 3
This makes it official – a WTF hat trick to close out the day! It shouldn’t come as a surprise since both of these teams have been major disappointments this season: Fresno’s lone win came against Abilene Christian while the Spartans scratched the win column against New Hampshire. Not much else has gone right for either squad, although our MIDWEEK ALERT reminds us the Bulldogs played much closer in last week’s 21-point loss to Utah (lost stats, 380-365) than the scoreboard indicated. San Jose State returns home after road losses to Air Force and Oregon State, but an ugly 3-11 ATS failure as home chalk since 2008 – including 1-6 ATS when favored by 8 or fewer points – tells us the Spartans might be better off not unpacking their suitcases. Face it: Fresno State has won 16 of the last 19 series meetings, and we get the Bulldogs as underdogs against a foe they’ve dominated. Eight straight losses by the Spartans to FBS foes cements it – the points are the play in this college nightcap.
Cincinnati over BALTIMORE by 6
Let’s see. A Game Three showdown featuring division rivals, one 0-2 and the other 2-0. What do we have in this situation, you ask? Not much says our well-intended database as it reports home teams in this spot are just 8-7 ATS since 1980. What we have, though, are some solid numbers in the Bengals favor as they are 13-8 SU and 14-6-1 ATS of late in this series, including 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS off a win, and 4-0 SUATS the last four games overall. Adding to the Ravens frustration is their 1-10 ATS mark as home chalk before playing Pittsburgh. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton’s nifty 6-2-2 ATS career mark against winless teams is also noted. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t inform you that undefeated dogs in Game Three of the season are 8-0 ATS in division games since 2006. Back the better team getting points. It works.
Written by Marc Lawrence
can also be found at Playbook.com
- One Click Handicapping