Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Wednesday, October 17, 2018


Best College & Pro Upsets OCT 20-21


MICHIGAN STATE OVER MICHIGAN BY 6

Are the Spartans laying in the weeds or what? Even after a bangedup Michigan State team (played without RB LJ Scott and WR Cody White) upset Penn State on the road in a thrilling 21-17 comeback win last Saturday, Sparty fi nds itself playing second fi ddle to hated Michigan again this weekend, opening as a 6.5-point home dog to the Wolverines. We’re somewhat perplexed by the line considering MSU head coach Mark Dantonio has OWNED Michigan the last decade – on both the ATS front and the money line, too – by posting an amazing 8-2 SU and 10-0 ATS record in the series during that span. Dantonio has locked horns with Michigan’s Jim Harbaugh three times, winning twice on the scoreboard and going 3-0 ATS. Last year’s 14-10 win at the Big House by MSU has certainly stuck in the craw of Maize-and-Blue fans, who watched their Wolverines lose five turnovers while getting whistled for costly penalties at the most inopportune times. Hey, we’ll admit that Michigan has looked strong of late: its top ranked tough-as-nails defense has held 5 foes to season-low yards while the resurgent Wolverines offense has put up 80 points the last two weeks, including 444 yards of offense in last Saturday’s 38-13 blowout of Wisconsin. But with Dantonio expected to turn up the heat on opposing QB Shea Patterson, we’ll gladly side with Sparty’s top-ranked rush defense (62.3 RYPG) to frustrate the visitors. More support comes from MSU’s recent 7-0 ATS run versus conference revenge, which fits snugly with Michigan’s 3-11 ATS slide when playing on the road with Big Ten revenge. And seeing Michigan ranked No. 6 in the land while MSU barely made the poll with a No. 24 ranking will make certain the Spartans arrive with a giant chip on their shoulder. Remember: MSU was a 1-point
favorite in this game at the South Point in Las Vegas before the season started. We close our case with Dantonio’s 19-8-1 ATS as a conference dog with the Spartans, including 16-4-1 ATS against foes coming off consecutive wins, and THE CLINCHER: Michigan’s Harbaugh is 3-7 ATS in conference games after scoring 80 plus points in his last two games, including 0-6 ATS when coming off a double-digit ATS win.



Maryland over IOWA by 1

The Hawkeyes have been road warriors this season, steamrolling Minnesota and Indiana in the last two weeks by a combined score of 90-47, and now they get chance to make up for their only loss this season, a 28-17 stumble on this fi eld against Wisconsin almost a month ago. Unfortunately, Iowa has been known to lay an egg or two after tangling with the Hoosiers, going 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS following Indiana, including 0-6 SUATS versus winning foes. The Hawkeyes are also known for producing unexpected clunkers, suffering 10 SU losses as TD favorites or better the previous 10 seasons. Holy Hayden Fry! Attracting far less attention than the 5-1
host is a 4-2 Maryland team that somehow weathered the storm of the ugly DJ Durkin situation early in the season to become a major surprise. The Terrapins have cashed in both meetings with Iowa since joining the Big Ten, and this year they’re one of the nation’s leaders in Red Zone Offense. Kirk Ferentz and company own a miserable 3-12 ATS log as conference favorites of more than 8 points, and with Penn State on deck, this looks like a great opportunity for a Homecoming chalk choke job. If you think not, then pay close attention to THE CLINCHER: The Hawkeyes are 2-9 ATS in games after scoring 35 plus points in their previous two outings under Kirk Ferentz, including 0-6 ATS if they scored 42 or more points in their last game.

NFL

NEW ORLEANS over Baltimore by 10

The Raven defense is hitting on all cylinders at the moment, currently the top-ranked stop-unit in the league and off a 21-0 shutout win at Tennessee last week. That’s where the good news ends, though, as our all-knowing database reports that NFL teams off whitewash wins are just 6-12 SU and 5-12-1 ATS when taking on rested foes the following game, including 0-4 SUATS if they scored 21 or fewer points in the victory. In addition, Baltimore QB Joe Flacco doesn’t like pumpkins as his 8-11 SU and 7-11-1 ATS career mark when the Black Birds are coming off a win during the month of October indicates, including 0-5 SUATS the last fi ve. Enter refreshed
New Orleans, currently residing atop the NFC South. The Saints will take the field knowing that NFL teams coming off a bye week that scored 36 or more points in their last game are a long-term 56-35-4 ATS winning proposition. And speaking of October, we saved the best for last with THE CLINCHER: Saints QB Drew Brees is 33-11 ATS in non-division games during October, including 14-1 ATS against foes coming off a win.

CHICAGO over NE by 10

The Brady bunch hit the highway following Sunday night’s classic 43-40 shootout win of Kansas City, snapping the Chiefs’ perfect start To the season while also putting New England back in the ‘home field advantage’ talk in the AFC playoff race. And like a political fact-checker, our well-oiled machine jumps right into the fray noting that the Pats are not a deserving favorite today as Bill Belichick’s boys are just 3-9-1 ATS when favored after scoring 40 or more points and taking on .600 or greater non-division opposition. In addition,the MIDWEEK ALERT notes that the Pats are surrendering a wobbly 4.5 Yards Per Rush on the season, which fits like Gloria Steinem on a Donald Trump ticket – not so good – next to Chicago’s 4.4 Yards Per Rush offense. Meanwhile, Da Bears have rushed for 120 or more yards in 4 of their five games this season, which fits like OJ’s glove into a New England squad that evaporates to 31-71-4 ATS as favorites in games in which they allow 120 rushing yards. We wrap it all up, though, with THE CLINCHER: Chicago is 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS at home against AFC East foes coming off a win, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS when the Bears are coming off a loss.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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