Friday, November 16, 2012
College & Pro Upsets Nov. 17-18
West Virginia over Oklahoma by 1
Forget about where have you gone, Joe Dimaggio – that was 1968. How about where is Geno Smith? He disappeared a month ago (last seen running off with a cardboard Heisman) as the Mountaineers have dropped four straight following a 5-0 start to the season. Our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 thinks he’ll resurface this week, however, as does the Mounties’ sterling 11-5 SU and 14-2 ATS mark
as conference dogs (4-0 ATS home). Further proof of his existence looks to be a 6-0-1 ATS Game Ten log and a 5-0 ATS mark versus .700 or greater conference opposition from Game Eight out. In fact, we may be looking for ‘Big Game’ Bob Stoops when this one is over as hisdisappointing Sooners are just 2-6 ATS as a double-digit conference road favorite off a SU win versus winning opposition. OU is also 1-4-1 after brawling with Baylor and 2-6 ATS before a home game with Oklahoma State. And you can bet (and we will) that Stoops and company has had that game against the Cowboys circled in red after last season’s blowout loss in Stillwater sent the Sooners to the Insight Bowl and the ‘Boys to the Fiesta. Where have you gone, Geno Smith? Oh, there you are. Good, ‘cause a lonely Mountaineer nation turns its eyes to you. WVU, outright… hey, hey, hey!
RICE over Smu by 7
Is there any 6-4 team out there right now that’s as schizoid as SMU? Here’s an outfi t that lost outright as a 19-point favorite to pitiful Tulane – who was 0-5 at the time – then utterly destroyed Houston, 72-42. Wait… they’re not done. After getting spanked as a single-digit dog by UCF, 42-17, the Mustangs rebounded to smother Southern Miss, 34-16. Simply put, you never know which team you’re going to get when you back these guys. However, here it won’t matter. Not with this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT and Marc’s ALL REVVED UP Betcha Didn’t Know article lined up on the Owls! That’s a serious onetwo punch right there – but a look at recent series history tells us the knockout is a virtual certainty. Check it out: SMU has lost nine of the last 10 games with Rice OUTRIGHT and the Ponies have won SU just once in their last 11 trips to Houston. The Owls are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings and have cashed eight consecutive tickets on this fi eld. Yikes! With the Mustangs coming off a Southern Miss revenge win with a Tulsa revenger up next, the hard-charging Owls (won 3 of last 4 games SU) couldn’t ask for a better time to send off the seniors. A win here and next week against UTEP sends the Krispies bowling, so the upset is no surprise. A solid take.
SAN JOSE ST over Byu by 3
Here’s a ‘Perception Versus Reality’ game for you. The perception is that San Jose State isn’t a very good team… while BYU is. Truth is the highly-touted Cougars are just 6-4 SU on the year while the Spartans are 8-2, losing only to Stanford and Utah State (16-4 SU combined). Even better, the Jose home boys are an attention-getting 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when wearing the dog collar. Here’s some more reality for you: the Mormons are just 1-9 SU away versus .500 or better opponents the last three years, including 0-3 ATS this year and 0-6 ATS versus winning foes. Those numbers fi t hand-in-glove with BYU’s weak 3-8 ATS effort as chalk of less than 8 points and San Jose State’s 7-2 ATS log in 2012 under 3rd-year coach Mike MacIntyre. We think we’ve perceived a new reality. Take the points with the better team.
PHILADELPHIA OVER WAshington by 10
Ch-ch-changes. Plenty appear to be in the offi ng for the struggling Eagles. Head coach Andy Reid is sitting squarely on the hot seat as his team has lost fi ve consecutive games for the fi rst time in his 14-year tenure with Philadelphia. With Michael Vick sidelined again (confirm status), Reid is forced to cave into fans’ wishes and start rookie QB Nick Foles while his troops take the fi eld with both a Top 10 ranked offense and defense. Lucky for the Birds they’re taking on Mike Shanahan, a coach who has struggled in his NFL career when hosting losing opponents, going 16-38-2 ATS, including 2-15 ATS the last 17 against foes off a loss of 6 or more points. Worse, the Pigskins are a jaw-dropping 2-21-1 ATS as favorites when facing opponents off a SUATS loss during the 3rd quarter of the season (Games Nine-Twelve). They are also a victim of Marc’s JUST LIKE A WOMAN Black Book article, one which implores us to fade division home favorites seeking triple revenge against foes off a loss. Toss in the fact that Reid is the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on Page 2 and you have the makings of a team about to make a change… for the good.
DETROIT over Green Bay by 11
There is no more motivating factor for a team that made the playoffs last year than to be a cellar dweller the next. And just what is it that brings the best out in these teams, you ask? A visit from last year’s division bear, and a dose of double-revenge, does the trick almost every time. Toss in 3.5 points for good measure from the linemaker and you have a live division dog that is more than ready to regain its growl. In this case, it’s a caged Lion whose stats this year are actually better than last season’s, showing improved numbers on both sides of the ball. Detroit also brings the better offense and the better defense into this battle knowing they are 16-2 ATS at home in division games when seeking double revenge-exact, including 14-0 ATS when hosting a .777 or less opponent. Meanwhile, the Packers can’t seem to get in an offensive rhythm this season with its offense 7 PPG and 55 YPG off from last year’s production. Our powerful database provides the cement, noting that NFL division home dogs off a SU road favorite loss are 34-16-2 since 1980. Revenge rears its ugly head as the Lions un-cage their anger and roar today.
Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping