Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Thursday, October 04, 2018


BEST College & Pro UPSETS, Week of OCT 5-6


VIRGINIA TECH over Notre Dame by 6

> Don’t look now but the Irish currently reside in the 5th slot to in the CFB Playoffs at the Westgate SuperBook (12/1 behind Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia). Meanwhile, Virginia Tech is 500/1 – a value proposition we are playing. All the Hokies need to do is win this game, then beat Clemson in the ACC title game, and without an unforeseen slip-up… you never know. The bottom line is the gap between these two teams is not as wide as Vegas implied Tech bounced back last week from that puzzling road loss at Old Dominion in startling fashion by dominating a pretty good Duke team in a dramatic 31-14 win in Durham (Marc’s 5* College Game of the Month). Backup QB Ryan Willis, who started in parts of two seasons at Kansas and was the ACC’s most experienced backup, stepped in for starting QB Josh Jackson (suffered a broken fibula versus ODU) and responded by going 17-for-26 for 332 yards with 3 TDs and 0 interceptions. Besides, the Irish are a 5-0 Fat Cat SMART BOX fade this week… and they’re taking on a Hokies team that is 11-3 ATS in their last 14 appearances as a home dog. In closing, we turn it over to THE CLINCHER: Virginia Tech is 48-3 SU in its last 51 home games against non-conference opposition – with only ONE LOSS by more than a touchdown.



TEXAS over Oklahoma by 6

The latest chapter in one of college football’s most endearing rivalries, the Red River Rivalry, takes place at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, with the game appropriately starting at high noon ET. The Sooners entered this game off a loss last season, a situation in which they were 28-0 SU and 21-7 ATS in conference games (they responded with a 29-24 win). This year, though, they enter off a 33-point win-and-cover knowing they are just 4-11 ATS in this series when coming off a pointspread win. Not only that, but both OU head coach Lincoln Riley and quarterback Kyler Murray are making their inaugural appearance as a 5-0 Fat Cat SMARTBOX fade – and we don’t think they’ll like what the sagacious square has to saThe last four in this series have been decided by a touchdown or less, and the Horns hold a 5-0 ATS series advantage in the last five meetings. Texas is 10-2-1 ATS in Game Six, including 5-0 ATS the last five, and 6-1 ATS as a single-digit underdog. Currently riding a 4-game win streak (their longest since 2013), a win on Saturday vaults the Longhorns past the Sooners atop the Big 12 standings.THE CLINCHER: Texas head coach Tom Herman is 8-4 SU and 11-1 ATS as an underdog, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS with a winning record.

NFL

> BUFFALO over Tennessee by 6
>
Titans hit the road after last week’s come from behind OT win over the Eagles and the MIDWEEK ALERT notes that 3-1 Tennessee has coughed up season-high yards in half of their games thus far. Furthermore, this from the well-oiled machine: away teams are just 13-41 SU and 16-38 ATS since 1992 after having upset the defending Super Bowl champions in their previous game. Not good news for the Titans today. Meanwhile, the Bills enter off an embarrassing 22-0 whitewash loss against the Packers knowing they are 6-1 SU in games after having been blanked. Better yet, NFL teams coming off a shutout loss who were in the playoffs the previous season tend to bounce back as home dogs the following games, going 8-1-1 ATS since 1990 when taking 3 or more points.

SEATTLE over LA Rams by 4


The Rams are coming off an NFL record-setting effort in last Thursday’s win over Minnesota when QB Jared Goff tossed for 465 yards and 5 TDs, establishing a new watermark in Thursday games. Goff is also the fi rst NFL QB to pass for 400 yards and 5 TDs on 3 days of rest. With it, the Rams are now 4-0 for the first time since 2001 when they went to the Super Bowl (and lost) and – like the 4-0 Chiefs – they have surrendered season-low yards in three games this campaign. That’s not good news for a recent record-setting team that is 0-9 ATS as favorites of 7 or less points against avenging division opponents. Granted, things are not pretty in Seattle where disgruntled DB Earl Thomas fl ipped off the Seahawks bench while being carted off with a broken leg last week. The good news for Seattle is its 8-1 ATS mark as a dog when coming off a win and facing an opponent coming off consecutive wins. Furthermore, the savvy machine reminds us that 2-2 NFL teams in Game Five coming off consecutive wins are 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS in this role since 2013. We seal the deal, though, with THE CLINCHER: Seattle is 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS as a home dog of more than 2 points under Pete Carroll, including 9-2 SU and 11-0 ATS the last eleven games.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Wednesday, September 26, 2018


Best College & Pro Upsets, SEP 29-30


NCAA

No Illinois over E MICHIGAN by 7

Okay, it’s time to stop piling on the Huskies. It’s a fact that Rod Carey’s NIU squad is off to a troubling 1-3 SU start in 2018 but the sled dogs’ three defeats came against Iowa, Utah and Florida State. Not that Eastern Michigan has been slumming: the 2-2 Eagles faced off with Purdue, Buffalo and San Diego State following their season opening romp over Monmouth, 51-17. The problem is that EMU returns to Ypsilanti after a pair of draining road contests, a 7-point loss to the unbeaten Bulls and a heart-breaking 3-point defeat at San Diego State in overtime. Our database notes that CFB home favorites coming off an overtime loss are just 57-79-4 ATS, good to know considering Eastern’s 2-9-1 ATS effort as MAC home chalk when owning a win percentage greater than .250. Yes, we know the Huskies have yet to gain 300 yards in the four games they’ve played thus far but that only tells us – like with a prolonged pregnancy – they are due to deliver any day now. The Eagles opened as 3-point chalk in this matchup, and the closest they’ve come to going off as game-time favorites versus Northern Illinois was back in 2016 when they were 1-point home dogs. In addition, the last five meetings on this field resulted in a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS edge to the Huskies. It’s impossible to ignore NIU’s series domination, winning 16 of the last 17 SU on the scoreboard versus EMU, and with the troubled hosts limping home off tough road losses, look for Northern Illinois to find its groove here this evening as we cement the call.


NEBRASKA over Purdue by 6

Boilers head coach Jeff Brohm said he wanted “losing to hurt” after Purdue opened the season 0-3 and his team prepared to face an undefeated Boston College team last Saturday in West Lafayette. Thanks, coach. A missed extra point attempt in the 2nd quarter by Boilers kicker Spencer Evans must have really hurt as he was seen immediately afterwards hugging a trash can and losing his pre-game lunch on the sidelines (Purdue medical staff led him away never to return). The pain was pointless, however, as the Boilers went on to a 30-13 victory and ended their winless streak. Unfortunately, they now find themselves in the unsuccessful role of road favorite where they are 0-5 ATS of late. As for the Cornhuskers, they started 0-3 for the first time since before helmets had faceguards (1945) when they were mauled by Michigan, 56-10. In fact, things got so bad against the Wolverines that at one point in the 4th quarter
Nebraska had lost more yards due to penalties (66) than they had gained on offense (61)! UM head coach Jim Harbaugh was kind after the game, saying, “They are an improving, ascending team.” Huh? ESPN reports that Nebraska has trailed Colorado 14-0, Troy 17-0, and Michigan 46-0 in their games this season. Enter new head Husker Scott Frost. We understand he’s trying to remold a winless team into a great one like he did at UCF, but our message to him is the time to start is NOW. With Big Red looking for any win they can get before
returning to the Big Ten road next week, look for the still-patient fans in Memorial Stadium to be the difference this afternoon. That and THE CLINCHER: Nebraska’s Frost is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in his career against sub .500 opponents.

NFL

NY GIANTS over NO by 7

After watching Drew Brees orchestrate another air assault in last week’s fi ve-quarter overtime win at Atlanta, we can only nod our heads in admiration. But the fact of the matter is Brees is only 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS away when coming off a SU division road win in his career, including 0-4 SUATS the last four. That sets the table for this tryst as the Giants return home following last week’s upset win at Houston knowing they are 7-3 SUATS as home dogs when coming off a SU underdog victory. In addition, fellow future Hall of Fame QB Eli Manning is 9-4-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 8-1 ATS against foes coming off consecutive wins. And with that we hand it off to THE CLINCHER: 1-2 NFL home dogs coming off a win are 18-6-1 ATS in Game Four of the season, including 5-0 ATS when hosting a foe coming off a SU underdog win.

DENVER over KC by 6

Wow. Thanks to phenom QB Patrick Mahomes, ESPN reports the Chiefs are only the second team in NFL history, and the first since the 1997 Patriots, to have 9 players with a TD catch in their first 3 games of the season. They are the hottest team in the loop and while 74% of NFL teams that start the season 3-0 have made the playoffs, it doesn’t help the Chiefs today. It’s never a good thing when you surrender 27 points and 406 yards and it’s your best defensive effort of the season. And not with the league’s worst defense (474 YPG) taking on Denver’s Top 10 ranked offense. It certainly doesn’t hurt knowing that the Broncos have been a premium home dog when taking on foes coming off a win, going 19-10-1 ATS, winning 18 of the games in straight-up fashion. And for what it’s worth, Denver has dressed up as a home dog only two times in this series dating back to 1980... and they won both games outright. We seal the deal with THE CLINCHER: Denver QB Case Keenum is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in his NFL career against foes coming off wins in each of their previous three games.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, September 20, 2018


Top College & Pro Upsets, Weekend of SEP 22


Marshall over NC State by 6

The 2-0 Wolfpack were another victim of Hurricane Florence’s postponement roll call last week, not getting the opportunity to square off with highly-ranked West Virginia at Raleigh. Now State makes its first road trip of the season before returning home again for a pair of ACC contests. In this case, though, that extra week of
rest may not pay off: 2-0 away teams in Game Three with a week of rest are 32-49 ATS, including 14-28 ATS in non-conference games. On the flip side, 2-0 home teams with rest like Marshall (the Herd’s game at South Carolina was also canceled) are a healthy 38-17 SU in Game Three when hosting non-division foes. Doc Holliday’s team backs up those numbers with a defi ant 6-1-2 ATS record in their last nine appearances as non-conference home dogs. Marshall also lays down the law with a 4-0-2 ATS effort of late versus the ACC, not to mention a 10-4 ATS run dating back to last year. Taking on the Herd at Huntington has never been easy; even in 2016’s horrendous 3-9 campaign, seven of their nine losses came on the road. All things considered, we look for Holliday to continue rebuilding the
Marshall mystique as his squad pulls one of the evening’s bigger upsets – fully supported by THE CLINCHER: Rested, undefeated non-conference home dogs are15-6 ATS versus undefeated foes, including 11-1 ATS against opponents playing off an ATS win – winning 7 of the games straight-up.



Texas over TCU by 10

The Froggies blew their chance to bring down mighty Ohio State last Saturday night in a hard-hitting contest where the Buckeyes seemed to wear out TCU in the late going of the 40-28 fi nal. Not so for Texas, who took full advantage of a shaky Southern Cal squad last week to roll up a big 37-14 revenge win over the Trojans. Now
the Horned Frogs travel to Austin for a matchup of 2-1 teams on Saturday afternoon. TCU is 3-10 ATS as Big 12 road chalk of less than 21 points and just 7-15 SUATS off a SU loss & ATS win when facing .500 or greater foes. The Longhorns enter off a 37 to 14 win over USC falling behind 14-3 before reeling off 34 unanswered points to secure the victory. Riding a wave of momentum after reeling off 34 unanswered points in the drubbing of USC, the Longhorns arethe answer to the Texas Two Step question: who leads and who follows on Saturday afternoon. Texas head coach Tom Herman is not only the answer to this Week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2, he’s also 20-4 SU in games in which his squad boasts a .666 or greater win percentage. Best of all, Herman’s adversary today chips in to provide THE CLINCHER: Gary Patterson is 3-10 ATS as a conference favorite.

NFL

SF over KC by 4

A matchup of the league’s latest en vogue quarterbacks – San Francisco’s Jimmy G and Patrick ‘KC Masterpiece’ Mahomes. The Patomic Bomb has tossed an NFL record 10 TD passes the first two weeks of the season to lead the Chiefs into the favorite’s role to the Super Bowl. However, before he’s crowned as the almighty,
the Kansas City Cannon is going to need his defense to make an appearance sooner than later. It’s a stop-unit that ranks DEAD LAST in the NFL, allowing 508 YPG to date. As a result, the Chiefs are 2-0 SUATS but 0-2 ITS this season as they’ve been outyarded in both games by 205 total yards. Perhaps it should come as no surprise, as Marc alludes to in his USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY column, that KC has been out-yarded in 50 of Andy Reid’s 87 games with the Chiefs. On the other side of the coin, Pistol Pat’s counterpart, Jimmy Garappolo, owns a 95.7 career passer rating and is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS as a starter in the NFL. In addition, the Niners are 3-0 SUATS away under Kyle Shanahan in games with at least one win on the season. With NFL teams playing their home opener in Game Three ofthe campaign just 20-45-2 ATS against non-division foes, we close it out with THE CLINCHER: San Francisco is 8-1 ATS with a .500 or greater record in games against foes off a SU underdog win.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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