Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Thursday, September 29, 2016


College & Pro Best Upsets, NFL Week 4


FRIDAY

STANFORD over Washington by 10

It looks like the Pac-12 North will be decided on this last day in September as the 7th-ranked Cardinal travel to Seattle to take on No. 10 Washington. Both teams were exposed in victories last week as the Huskies needed overtime to top Arizona in the desert while Stanford’s all-everything, Christian McCaffrey (failed to fi nd the end zone for the fi rst time in 16 games), was gang-tackled in UCLA worse than the Old Spice Man in the Port of Savannah. The Cardinal still managed to rally late and that sets the stage for this tilt as: undefeated Game Four away teams off a SUATS win taking on a 4-0 SU foe are 7-1 ATS since 1980, including 4-0 ATS when they allow 12 or fewer PPG and 4-0 ATS when taking 3 or more points. Series history also sides with Stanford (7-1 SU last eight) as does a 8-1 ATS log in the second of back-to-back road games and 5-1 ATS weekday mark versus conference opponents. The bottom line is it’s impossible to ignore a dog with this type a pedigree, especially with the up-and-coming Huskies in unfamiliar territory and 1-6 ATS with conference revenge (fell 31-14 last season in Palo Alto). Now that’s more like it – back to a more customary two-team Friday night puppy parlay, topped off by THE CLINCHER: Cardinal HC David Shaw is 8-1 ATS as a dog with Stanford, including 5-0 ATS versus undefeated opposition.



TEXAS over Oklahoma State by 11

Huge matchup at Stillwater as a loss here would drop the Cowboys to 0-2 in Big 12 play while a Texas defeat would level the Horns’ record at .500 before their Red River Rivalry matchup with Oklahoma. So with both teams in ‘must-win’ mode, we turn to our all-seeing database for guidance – and it’s all good news for Texas and HC Charley Strong. The Longhorns are 5-0 ATS away with rest off a SU loss, 10-1 ATS as Big 12 road dogs of less than 9 points, and 16-2 SU and 13-4-1 ATS in Game Four, including 5-0 SUATS away. Those results fi t hand-in-glove with the series visitor’s current 7-0-1 ATS run and Oklahoma State’s 0-5 ATS home mark versus rested opponents. The Horns, who held UTEP and Cal to season-low yards, are also a ‘Four On The Floor’ SMART BOX play as outlined in last week’s issue, AND a ‘Freshen Up’ SMART BOX call this week! And while we can’t guarantee that we know a secret potion that will regrow the hair on Strong’s head.

NFL

Kansas City over PITTSBURGH by 3

The overwhelming consensus of NFL fans nationwide is the return of star RB Le’Veon Bell tonight – back from another failed drug test suspension – puts the Steelers right into the winner’s circle in this contest. We don’t agree. Not against a coach who makes his living on the road, and against teams that were upset in their previous game. That would be Kansas City head coach Andy Reid and his sterling 30-15 SU and 27-17-1 ATS record in games against opponents that lost SU as a favorite in their previous game. Couple that with Pittsburgh’s 2-9 ATS the last 11 games versus AFC West opponents. And the fact that the once famed Steel Curtain defense has recorded only 1 sack this season, the fewest in the league. We don’t see that changing against light-footed Alex Smith and the Chiefs tonight, either. And don’t forget – we know our all-knowing database certainly doesn’t – that Kansas City is 10-5 SUATS in its last 15 Sunday Night games, including 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS versus a foe coming off a loss. Pitt’s pitiful 3-9 SU and 1-10-1 ATS mark as a non-division favorite in Game Four of the season cements it for us. Chiefs ring the Sunday Night bell.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Friday, September 23, 2016


Marc Lawrence Upset Best Bets, Week 3


PITTSBURGH over North Carolina by 7

In full support of the smokin’ hot SMART BOX, we’re off and running with the Panthers again this week. And our MIDWEEK ALERT agrees as well, noting Pitt’s powerful running game is averaging 240 RYPG, anchored by Heisman hopeful James Conner and his understudy Quadree Ollison (ACC Freshman of the Year with 1,121 rushing yards). In fact, these numbers fi t like a glove into a jelly-soft Tar Heels’ rush defense that allows 227 RYPG. The shocking stat from last week was the 640 yards given up by Pitt’s defense to a pissed-off Oklahoma State squad, but we can pretty much guarantee that a defensive mastermind like head coach Pat Narduzzi will not allow it to happen again. In fact, his troops are the only FBS team in the nation to have no regular games decided by more than 21 points the past two seasons – meaning they are in every game they play (average loss less than 7 PPG). On the fl ip side, the Heels put up 104 points against the likes of Illinois and James Madison this season, but were outstatted by 159 yards in a 9-point loss to Georgia. Also, consider that UNC is 0-3 SUATS in its last three lined games before facing Florida State. But when push comes to shove, here’s THE CLINCHER: The Panthers are 5-0 ATS as road dogs with triple revenge-exact and 4-0 ATS on the road with revenge under Narduzzi.



Arkansas over Texas A&M by 3

This battle of undefeated Top 25 teams will be played at Jerry’s World in Arlington and sees the 17th-ranked Hogs looking to avenge four straight losses in this series, as they stand 5-2-1 ATS with quadruple revengeexact. They do, however, hold an impressive 9-2 spread record in their last 11 matchups with the Aggies, including 4-1 ATS at neutral sites. The Razorback offense was expected to struggle after the graduation of QB Brandon Allen, but his baby brother has stepped in marvelously in the early going. Austin Allen has completed 67% of his passes for 655 yards and engineered a big OT win over TCU in Week 2, moving the Hogs into the rankings. The 10th-ranked Aggies have a huge OT win of their own under their belts after knocking off UCLA in the opener, and are now coming off a big revenge win at Auburn last week. However, with just a 5-9 ATS mark as favorites on neutral fi elds and a weak 2-10 ATS record versus revenge in the SEC, we’re up for some BBQ today. Woo Pig Sooie!

NFL


Chicago over Dallas by 3

Watching a suffering Bear is not a pretty sight. After a promising offseason in which Marc Lawrence recommended Chicago as a season-win total ‘Over’ play at the Westgate SuperContest seminar in Las Vegas, they have performed like more like cubs (not the 2016 MLB team) to start the 2016 season. Tonight they journey to Dallas with QB Jay Cutler nursing an aggravated thumb injury on his throwing hand, which means we’ll likely see Brian Hoyer behind center – and that suits us to a tee. Hoyer is 15-11 SU and 16-9-1 ATS as a starter in this league, including 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in games in which his team is playing off a loss. In addition, Chicago head coach John Fox saw his 7 game personal win skein against rookie quarterbacks snapped in Monday night’s loss to the Eagles. On the fl ip side, the Cowboys will look to win back-to-back games without Tony Romo, a tall task considering they are 2-13 SU without him the past two seasons. Rookie QB Dak Prescott has been a pleasant surprise but it’s Jason Garrett that gets in the way tonight, bringing an 8-24 ATS record as a home favorite as a head coach in his NFL career into tonight’s fray, including 5-20 ATS the last 25 games, and 2-12 ATS when coming off a division game. This is the classic case of the distressed Bears being better off away from their den as they look to straighten things out under the Sunday Night lights. THE CLINCHER: Chicago is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in games coming off a Monday Night loss.


Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, September 15, 2016


College & Pro Underdog Best Bets September 16


MICHIGAN STATE over ND by 7

So begins the next chapter in Michigan State football… let’s call it ‘AC’ (after Cook). In Sparty’s season opener against Furman, it looked like things would be FUBAR without graduated signal caller extraordinaire, Connor Cook. But new QB Tyler O’Conner kept throwing and three TDs later, MSU closed out the pesky Paladins, 28-13. Now it’s time for bigger business, and our database dutifully shares the Spartans’ 6-0 ATS mark before playing Wisconsin, along with a 10-2-1 ATS success when playing off an unlined home win. Need we mention that Sparty is looking to avenge three straight losses in this series? What we fi nd especially appealing is MSU head coach Mark Dantonio’s record in away games – where his teams have managed to win SU in 35 of 65 games – and his 17-6-1 ATS record when facing a foe off a SUATS win (he’s also 5-1 SUATS as a dog when playing with rest). Yes, the Irish punished Nevada last week in front of Touchdown Jesus to chase away memories of their OT loss to Texas, but the well-oiled machine won’t be giving out ATS party favors to the Golden Domers tonight. Brian Kelly’s boys are a dismal 0-5 ATS at home versus a rested opponent, 2-12 ATS as chalk of more than 6 points versus a Big Ten foe, and just 2-6 in the second of three straight games at Notre Dame Stadium. Yikes! If our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 doesn’t do it for you, there’s always THE CLINCHER: MSU coach Dantonio is 8-0-1 ATS in his career away in games off a win when seeking revenge agaisnt an opponent off a win – including a 17-14 victory as a 16.5-point dog behind O’Conner at Ohio State last year.



NFL

INDIANAPOLIS over Denver by 10

Safe to say the Broncos are coming off their most satisfying wins in franchise history, with back-to-back victories over Cam Newton and the Panthers in the last year’s Super Bowl 50 and this year’s season opener this past week. Meanwhile, the Broncos are just 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games in this series. In addition, Denver is just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS as a favorite in games off a win when tackling the AFC South. Enter Andrew Luck and his 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS log as a dog of less than 7 points in this league. More important our sister publication, the MIDWEEK ALERT (which debuts next week) points out this a classic ‘double-inside-out’ affair, meaning Indy lost the game but won the stats while Denver won the game yet lost the stats in each of their contests last week. The Colts’ 6-0 ATS mark against the AFC West, and the Broncos’ 0-5-1 ATS ledger in their 2nd home games cements it. And lest we forget, there is always THE CLINCHER: Colts QB Luck is 16-4 SUATS in games off a loss in his NFL career, including 7-1 SUATS away.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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