Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Friday, January 03, 2014


Marc Lawrence Bowl and Playoff Upsets Jan. 3-5


ORANGE BOWL

Clemson over Ohio St by 6


If you’re a Clemson fan, the last thing you want to hear about is the Tigers’ previous trip to this bowl, a 70-33 blowout loss to West Virginia – a loss so one-sided that many were deluded into thinking QB Geno Smith could flourish in the NFL. Something you will appreciate hearing, though, is an absolute ton of trends that should very likely converge to bury the Buckeyes tonight. Ready? New Year’s Day and later ACC bowlers are 9-3-1 ATS off SUATS loss, all ACC bowl dogs off a loss are 17-4-1 ATS, including 12-1 ATS 12-1 ATS when getting +3.5 or more points, and ACC bowl dogs off a loss are 17-
4-1 ATS! Wait it gets better – or worse if you’re an Ohio State fan. New Year’s Day and later Big 10 bowlers are just 2-16 SU and 3-15-1 ATS off DD ATS loss, and the Bucks are a weak 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS of late in bowl games off a loss. The Clincher? Bowl teams off their first loss of the season that won 7 or more games last year and allow more than 15.5 PPG on the season are 0-6 ATS since 1990. Whew! Don’t expect a cakewalk as OSU HC Urban Meyer is a fearsome 48-4 SU and 34-10-1 ATS versus non- conference opposition, besides being 6-1 SUATS in bowl games. But the Buckeye defense is clearly down a notch, best illustrated by allowing 34 points to offensively-challenged Michigan State in their bitterly disappointing Big 10 Championship game loss. With Clemson’s ‘D’ leading the nation in tackles for loss (9.4 per game), we’ll call for Tiger QB Tajh Boyd to keep pace with OSU’s Braxton Miller and pull out a late upset win for Clemmie.



GREEN BAY over San Francisco by 3

Simply put, we just don’t feel that this 49ers team is as good as the one from last year: Kaepernick is defi nitely not as sharp, and the defense is not as dominant. Nor do we feel strongly that the Niners can go into the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field and beat a recovered Aaron Rodgers in the clutch. The Green Bay signalcaller owns a 5-3 SUATS mark in the playoffs, and the early game forecast is for 17 degrees with snow flurries possible. San Fran has won and covered just 5 of the last 19 showdowns between these two squads. HC Jim Harbaugh has had good success over non-division opponents, going 26-9 SU and 26-8-1 ATS – including
12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS away – and is 3-0 SUATS mark over Mike McCarthy. However, Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS since 1980 in opening playoff games on the road the following season. There is also a serious revenge angle here since the 49ers knocked the Pack out of the playoffs last season, then came back and 0-4-1 ATS since 1980 in opening playoff games on the road the following season. There is also a serious revenge angle here since the 49ers knocked the Pack out of the playoffs last season, then came back and that them again in the opening weekend this year. The all-powerful database kicks in with two interesting trends: 8-win teams are 5-0 ATS in the playoffs since 2000, and are 3-0 SUATS all-time as playoff hosts. Plus, NFL playoff home dogs are 20-14 and 22-12 ATS since 1980, including 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge. Green Bay has waited a long time for some payback, and they get it here. Smile and say cheese.

Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Friday, December 27, 2013


Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets Weekend of DEC. 28


TEXAS Over Oregon by 1

Will he stay or will he go? Day after day on the sports pages, ad nauseam… at least now a decision has been made and Mack Brown is riding his steer off into the sunset. We can’t deny that the man is uber-popular in Austin, so there will be plenty of burnt orange in the stands in San Antone for Ol’ Mackie’s swan song – along with some inspired play from his troops on the field. But let’s take emotion out of the equation for a moment and look at some numbers. Big 12 dogs of 3.5 or more points are 5-1 ATS in bowl games versus Pac-12 opponents, while pre-New Year’s Day Pac-12 bowlers are 1-11 ATS as favorites of 6 or more versus foes off a loss. And once again, we go back to the middle of October when the Ducks were 6-0 and had anointed themselves a spot in the BCS Championship game already, and all the Nike execs were scrambling to get their spots reserved in the Rose Bowl suites. It was then that the Ducks pulled on the hot pink helmets to play Washington State and were summarily torched for 557 yards passing by Mike Leach’s offense and a statistical slide ensued. From that point on, Oregon has slipped a -101 net YPG, the 4th biggest decline among bowl squads. We also found this trend very interesting: bowl teams with first-year coaches are 1-4 SUATS as
double-digit favorites (that’s four SU losses in five tries, folks). Add it all up and you will not fi nd us fading a Texas team that is obviously in a ‘Win One for the Gipper’ mode. In fact, when you bring emotion back into the discussion, the Longhorns might fi nish by chanting “Remember the Alamo!” after tonight’s upset. The Clincher: pre-New Year’s Day dogs of 7 or more points off a SUATS loss are 20-5-1 ATS when facing an opponent that failed to beat the spread by more than 7 points in its last game.




Washington over NY Giants by 8

After cashing last week’s 5* call on the Redskins, we’re putting the war paint back on again in what looks to be Mike Shanahan’s swan song in Washington. For openers, they will look to avenge a 24-17 home loss to the Giants on the 1st of December, a game in which the Skins won the stats. The win snapped a 5-game ATS series win skein by the Hogs and that ties nicely into Washington’s 10-1 ATS record as division road dogs of less than 7 points when seeking revenge. Not to mention the Hogs’ 7-1 ATS mark in games after clashes with the Cowboys. Meanwhile, the Giants return home off a road win ‘leaking oil’ like the Exxon Valdez, having been outgained in each of their last four contests. Not good news when they’re being quarterbacked by an erratic signal caller (Eli Manning) who is 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS home off a win in division games, including 0-5 ATS versus .500 or less opponents. While the rating is lowered to a 4* this week, the intensity is ratcheted up in Mike’s final curtain call. Especially with our AWESOME ANGLE (page 2) fi rmly in his corner. The Clincher: Shanahan is 17-8 SU and 18-7 ATS in division games off back-to-back losses, including 9-1 SU and 10-0 ATS when his team owns a losing record.


Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Wednesday, December 18, 2013


Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets DEC. 21-24


Colorado St over Washington St by 6

As ESPN likes to say, “It’s the most wonderful time of the year” – and it certainly will be if this year’s 35-game bowl schedule gets off to as rollicking a start as what we witnessed in last season’s New Mexico Bowl.
Arizona edged Nevada, 49-48, in a shootout that saw both teams combine for 1,234 yards of total offense. The Wildcats trailed 45-28 in the 4th quarter before pulling within 6 points with just 46 seconds to play. Then,
after UA recovered an onside kick, QB Matt Scott engineered a 3-play, 51-yard touchdown drive for the game-winning score. Could we see another thriller in Albuquerque today? Considering Washington State’s
aerial attack ranks 4th in the nation (364.5 YPG) and Colorado State averages over 200 YPG both rushing and passing, we say YES. We’ll resist embarking on our annual rant about 6-6 teams getting bowl invitations
and instead congratulate the Cougars on making it to the postseason after suffering 9 straight losing campaigns. WSU’s 2nd-year HC Mike Leach continues to make strides in Pullman, doubling his 3-win total from
2012 as he fi ghts to keep the Cougs competitive in the loaded Pac-12.Colorado State’s Jim McElwain, also in his second year as a head coach, worked similar wonders with his Rams, improving to 7-6 after a 4-8 debut
in 2012. McElwain’s squad is the only team in the nation to boast a 3,000-yard passer in Garrett Grayson and a 1,500-yard runner in Kapri Bibbs (led the nation with 28 rushing TDs). CSU fi nished the regular season on
a strong note, going 5-2 SUATS and ITS (needed 7 wins to get bowling shirts with its 13-game schedule). Even more impressive, the Rams won the stats by +129 net YPG from Game Seven out – while the Cougars lost
the stats by -98 net YPG over the same span. Wazzu QB Connor Halliday is no slouch himself but our reliable database informs us that 6-6 bowlers who allow 31.2 or more PPG are a Grinch-like 1-6 SUATS. The
favorite is also just 2-6 ATS in the Cougars’ last eight bowl games, and Leach himself owns an identical 2-6 ATS mark as bowl chalk. The boys from Fort Collins currently stand 3-0 SUATS as bowlers off a SUATS win
but we can’t ignore the fact that the Rams have not fared well against Pac-12 opposition, going just 2-8 SUATS in their last 10. Despite that lone negative, we still prefer backing an elated underdog with both the
better ‘O’ and ‘D’ against a WSU team that may be content just to be here. Toss in CSU’s familiarity with the venue (Rams play annual series with New Mexico) and it looks like today’s result might be a bit ‘upsetting’ for
Leach and this Cougar cubs. In the fi rst meeting ever between these schools, Colorado State comes out on top. The Clincher from our well-oiled machine: bowl favorites off at least 3 ATS wins with a win percentage of
less than .750 that won 6 or fewer games last season are 2-14 ATS since 1985.



PRO PICKS

WASHINGTON over DALLAS by 11


This just in… The Dallas Cowboys have changed the name on the back of their starting quarterback’s uniform from ROMO to OH NO! And how could you blame them after watching last week’s 2nd-half meltdown against the Packers? A 26-3 lead at the half went up in smoke in an improbable 37-36 comeback win by Green Bay and with it Dallas’ chances of making the playoffs. Displaying a flair for the catastrophic, Romo was picked late in the game with the lead, gifting the Packers a victory. Even head coach Jason Garret jumped off the Romo bandwagon when he said, “The idea was to run the ball and make them use the clock. Run it, and then if we have to throw it, throw high-percentage passes to keep the clock going and make them use their timeouts.” Ouch. As a result, Dallas is currently the No. 10 seed in the playoff picture. Plus, they are being outgained -106 YPG (the worst in the league) in games during the second half of the season. Adding to their woes is a 1-6 ATS mark of late in this series, including 0-3 ATS the last three games at FedEx Field. The Redskins’ switch to QB Kirk Cousins nearly paid off in a 27-26 loss at Atlanta last week when Mike Shanahan opted to go for two points and the win at the end, a game in which Washington dominated in the stats, 476-
243. We like the move and the fact that the Skins are 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in division games when playing off a 1-point exact loss. All of which means no mo Romo for us until the New Year arrives.


Tampa Bay over St. Louis by 4


We learned, and got burned, trying to lay points into Jeff Fisher last week. No siree, the best underdog coach in the loop would have none of it when his Rams knocked off New Orleans as 7-point home dogs. Looking deeper inside the numbers, though, we note that as good as the Fisher King is taking points (90-60-1 ATS), he’s rather lousy laying them (67-74-2 ATS). And to top it off, Fisher is 1-8 ATS in his NFL career as a home favorite of more than 5 points off a SU underdog win. Meanwhile, the Bucs enter looking to avenge a 28-13 loss suffered to St. Louis as 3-point home chalk last season, a game in which the Pirates won the stats, 429-285. And speaking of stat losses, the MIDWEEK ALERT informs us the Rams were outyarded, 454-302, in last week’s surprise win over the Saints. Toss in the Tampa’s tempting 7-1 ATS mark in non-division games after fighting the 49ers and this looks like an ideal spot for Louie to lay an egg. The Clincher: the Rams are 0-17 ATS as favorites versus opponents seeking revenge.


NEW England over Baltimore by 10

To see Tom Brady fail to deliver another patented last-second comeback win last week was almost science fiction. Like reading a comic book throughout his Hall of Fame career, Captain Marvel has come through like no other quarterback in the league in big games. And rest assured, this is a big game. If the playoffs were to start this week, the Pats would have a Bye while the Ravens would be at Cincinnati in a Wild Card game. So a lot is on the line as far as playoff positioning goes for both teams. Meanwhile, the Ravens enter off Monday night’s dramatic win at Detroit thanks to a 61-yard climactic field goal by Justin Tucker (one of 6) to win the game. The Black Crows’ 3-10 ATS mark at home in games after playing under the Monday night-lights does not help their chances. Nor does New England’s 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS record in road finales. With the MIDWEEK ALERT informing us this is a ‘double-insideout’ affair – the Pats off a stat-win loss and the Ravens off a stat-loss win – coupled with the fact that Baltimore is ‘leaking oil’, having been outgained in each of its last three games (all wins), the points

Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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