Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Friday, December 19, 2014

Marc Lawrence NFL Upsets December 20-22


INDY over Dallas by 3

Much of the focus in Indy is on QB Andrew Luck, and rightfully so, but the Colts defense is playing extremely well, as the MIDWEEK ALERT points out that Indy has allowed season low – or 2nd low – yards in three of their last four games since getting embarrassed by the Pats in Week 11 at home. Meanwhile, Dallas put a big one in the win column Sunday night against Philly to take control of the division, but consider this: NFC East teams are just 2-12 SU and ATS in follow-up games after battling one another this season. The Cowboys also saddle up inside this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT box on page 2 as it notes the Pokes are 3-19-1 ATS as a non-division favorite from Game Thirteen out, including 1-10 SU and 0-11 ATS when playing off a win. That will certainly have us pulling back on the reins at Jerry World this week, even if DeMarco Murray returns quickly from his hand surgery (Murray would wear a special padded glove that was designed in 1995 for a similar injury suffered by Emmitt Smith). But while the Colts clinched the AFC South last week and a probable No. 3 seed, they are still anxious for more, and our NFL Quarterback League Database provides The Clincher: Colts QB Andrew Luck is 13-0 SUATS in his NFL career in games after the Colts fail to score 21 points in their previous game.

Arizona over Seattle by 3

Yikes. We can hear the groans all the way down here in South Florida. Our MIDWEEK ALERT reports the ‘Legion of Doom’ defense in Seattle has held eight of their last nine foes to less than 300 total yards of offense – and have held each of their last four opponents to season low – or 2nd low – total yards. Now it’s the Cardinals that are stepping in front of that 100 MPH freight train, and will be doing it with a 3rd-string QB at the helm who couldn’t score a single TD last Thursday night against the Rams. But hold your horses, as Arizona is featured in our AWESOME ANGLE and our regular readers know that info carries significant weight. Of course, QB Ryan Lindley, a 6th round pick out of San Diego State in 2012, has not inspired confidence thus far in his NFL career: he played in six games in 2012, starting four of them, while tossing 7 INT’s and 0 TD’s. He was released this season but re-signed when Carson Palmer went down. Rookie Logan Thomas is the other backup, but obviously is not quite ready for games of this importance. Arizona has fluctuated from being the team that no one believed in to one that collected a serious bandwagon, but the fact is that the Cards became the first NFC team to clinch a playoff berth this season. They’ve relied heavily on their defense en route to a 9-1 start, and now share the NFL’s best record with New England and Denver at 11-3. In case you missed last week’s TRIVIA TEASER , it’s back again this week providing The Clincher: Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians is 14-2 SU and 15-1 ATS in his NFL career when his teams are facing an opponent off a SUATS win.

MINNESOTA over Miami by 8

Somehow we don’t think Joe Philbin’s halftime speeches will be confused with Martin Luther King’s ‘I Have a Dream’ masterpiece as the Fish have been outscored 41-3 in the second half the past
two weeks. Sure, this is a must-win for the Dolphins but wasn’t that the case late last season when they lost to the Bills and Jets by a combined score of 39-7? And while Jim Harbaugh looks to be taking the trolley out of San Fran, Miami fans would probably chip in for one of those cigarette speedboats to race Clueless Joe out of town. Thus, it appears we have another lame-duck coach laying points this time of year. No thanks. Not with Miami native Teddy Bridgewater (5-6 SU and 8-3 ATS) gaining confidence with each start as Vikings QB. As it is, the Dolphins are a ‘leaking oil’ favorite (0-3 ‘ITS’ last three) that is 1-4 SUATS in their last five games against the NFC North and 1-4 ATS as non-division favorites before facing the Jets. Our MIDWEEK ALERT also informs us that they’ve regressed during the second-half of the season as they have been outgained by an average of 70 YPG – not a good sign against a Minny team that held the high-flying Lions to a season-low 233 yards last week and is 18-4-1 SU and 17-6 ATS before battling the Bears when facing a foe off a SUATS loss. Hence, we have a dream of our own thanks to our all-knowing database as it provides The Clincher: .500 exact home favorites in Game Fifteen of the NFL season are 2-17 ATS since 1980 when playing off a SU double-digit loss.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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Wednesday, December 10, 2014

Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets Dec. 11-15


ARIZONA over St. Louis by10

The Gateway to the West provides the backdrop for this Week 15 opener, which fi gures to see less scoring than a dyslexic Scrabble tournament. The Rams enter off back-to-back shutout wins (the first time that’s been done in the NFL regular season since the Steelers accomplished the feat in the 2000 season) while the defensive-minded Redbirds have held 11 of 13 foes to under 21 points this season. And to boot, this day of the week hasn’t been exactly an offensive highlight reel for either of these squads as the Cardinals have been outscored 179-85 in their last six Thursday tilts (0-6 SUATS) while the Rams (2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS) are averaging less than 20 PPG (outscored 175-135) in their last seven contests before getting the weekend off. So why are we raising Arizona to Best Bet status and asking you to meet us in St. Louis? For starters, the Cards are 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS off an AFC fray while Louie is 0-4 SUATS the last two seasons following back-to-back SU wins. In addition, Arizona is 11-3 ATS in this series when taking points, including 9-1 ATS in this building. Better yet, Cardinals’ head coach Bruce Arians is the knock-out artist in this week’s TRIVIA TEASER (page 2) while the Rams’ mentor provides The Clincher: Jeff Fisher is 1-8 SUATS in his NFL career as a home favorite versus a .700 or greater opponent off a SUATS win.


Don’t look now but the Vikes have already surpassed last year’s win total and sit just one game under .500 entering this fray after last week’s 87-yard TD pass by Teddy Bridgewater in OT. And despite being 4-2 SU in their last six games and 7-1 ATS in their last eight, Minny is still far enough under the radar for value still to be found. Besides, the Lions have not fared well in this series, going 6-13 SU and 5-12-2 ATS in the last 19 meetings. In addition, the Lions are 6-0 SU versus .454 or less opposition this season, but only 2-4 SU and ATS versus better. Calvin Johnson is having his usual stellar season for Detroit when he is able to stay on the field, but BridgeH2O appears to have settled on his own purple deep threat named CJ: Charles Johnson, a 2nd-year receiver out of Grand Valley State averaging nearly 22 yards per reception in Minnesota’s last three games. We feel that the Vikings are ready to wield the switch at Ford Field this Sunday, but if this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 isn’t enough for you, there is always The Clincher: The Vikes are 10-3 SU and 11-1-1 ATS with revenge in this series, including 5-0 ATS as dogs.

BUFFALO over Green Bay by 3

The Bills are in a battle for a coveted Wild Card spot, and it’s been 15 years since they last made a postseason appearance, so it is a big deal in these parts – at least it takes the attention of Buffalonians of the snow! The Bills are circling the wagons as they head down the stretch, going 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS entering this contest, and they actually held the Broncos to a season-low 306 yards in the 7-point loss at Denver last week. Don’t discount their chances – Buffy took care of the Vampire, so Green Bay should be a piece of cake. Add to that Green Bay’s 0-4 spread mark in games following a Monday Nighter and we’ve suddenly become wagon-jumpers as Monday’s slugfest with the Falcons should find the Packers punched-out today. Whether it’s the weather or not, Buffalo has posted a 3-0 SUATS mark in their Last Home Games of the past three seasons. This is Home Dog Heaven, but we’ve saved the best for last with The Clincher: the Packers have NEVER WON or covered a game in Buffalo (0-5 SUATS).

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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Wednesday, December 03, 2014

Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets Dec. 6 - Dec. 8

OHIO STATE over Wisconsin by 3

You gotta feel for the Buckeyes. Entering 2014 on a 24-2 SU run under HC Urban Meyer, Ohio State lost starting QB Braxton Miller for the season with a shoulder injury before playing its fi rst game. J.T. Barrett stepped in for Miller and led the the team to 10-1 record – before leaving with a broken ankle in last week’s bitter 42-28 win over archrival Michigan. Now Meyer has to turn to his third starting QB this season in what will be OSU’s biggest game of the season. It’s our contention that the team will rally around new quarterback Cardale Jones, a 6-5 250-lb product of the Cleveland Glenville pipeline and a 3-star recruit out of high school. However, Jones almost ‘Winstoned’ his way off the team earlier when he was guilty of tweeting: “Why should we have to go to class if we came here to play FOOTBALL, we ain’t come to play SCHOOL, classes are POINTLESS.” Open mouth, insert size 20 foot. Those hijinks almost landed Jones a one-way bus ticket home… to which Meyer now says, “He’s matured a lot. I think he’ll do a great job.” Maybe so but we’ll rely on this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT (page 3) and Meyer’s sterling 15-9 SU and 18-6 ATS career mark as a pick or dog – including 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS since 2003. He’ll need all that and more to bring down a Wisconsin team on a 7-game win streak, thanks to RB Melvin Gordon’s exploits (8 yards per carry and 26 TD’s) and an under-appreciated defense that’s limited foes to just 260 yards and 16.8 PPG. The Badgers have not missed a beat since 2nd-year HC Gary Andersen took over for Bret Bielema and Andersen’s 18-8-1 ATS success against opponents with better records is certainly noteworthy. However, the well-oiled machine reminds us that since the inception of the Big 10 championship games, the favorite in these contests is a poor 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS – and that the Buckeyes are the only FBS team to outgain every foe they’ve faced this season. Incredibly, a win here won’t guarantee a playoff appearance for Ohio State as the Selection Committee might react negatively to the loss of QB Barrett and choose another 1-loss team (like TCU) with a healthy starting contingent. Still, we think Meyer has too much talent and depth on hand to let this opportunity slip away. Take as many points as you can, roll up your sleeves and get ready for a 60-minute WAR.

CHICAGO over Dallas by 11

Playing on Thanksgiving Day in front of the entire USA when every football fanatic (plus the casual fans and quite a few others that could probably care less) sits down with family and watches most of the contest – a perk that the Cowboys and the Lions have enjoyed for decades. No doubt it was a big part of Dallas becoming known as ‘America’s Team’. But there is a downside: post-Turkey Day road teams in non-division games are just 9-27 SU and 10-25-1 ATS. In fact, the Cowboys are just2- 19 ATS as favorites against non-division foes from Game 13 out, not to mention just 1-7 ATS recently as chalk coming off a division home game. They are also a dome team (okay, a retractable roof team) favored outdoors in a cold weather site in December, and that’s a definite no-no according to our fan-friendly database as teams in this role are a measly 21-37-1 ATS since 1980. On the flip side, Da Bears don’t seem to suffer such a drastic ‘tryptophan hangover’ since they don’t play every year on the holiday, and they are actually 5-1 SUATS after performing on Thanksgiving Day. They have also covered against Dallas for three consecutive seasons and in three of the last four meetings of this series played at Soldier Field. And as poorly as he’s performed at home as a favorite, Bears QB Jay Cutler is 5-2 SUATS as a non-division home dog. So, our overwhelming choice here is Chicago, but if you are still on the fence, here’s The Clincher: Dallas QB Tony Romo is 4-16 ATS as a favorite during December in his NFL career, including 0-9 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 47 or more points.

WASHINGTON over St. Louis by 6

OMG. A team who can’t get out of their own way is a Best Bet over a team off its largest win margin since they’ve called St. Louis home. You bet. And we can thank our sister newsletter, the MIDWEEK ALERT , for most of the fuel in this analysis. For openers, in Louie’s 52-point whitewash win over the Raiders last week, they managed a mere 348 yards of offense as a 5-0 turnover advantage absolutely killed any chance Oakland had of making it a game. Meanwhile, the win snapped a 7-game ‘In The Stats’ losing skein for Rams, a team that is losing the stats by an average of 41 YPG this season. On the other side of the coin, the down-and-out Redskins are actually outgaining opponents 28 YPG this campaign. The Hogs are also 7-0 ATS in games off an AFC tussle when taking on a foe off a SU win. Add to that the Rams’ 1-7 SUATS mark in its last eight head-to-head butts with the NFC East and suddenly it looks to us as if the wrong team is favored here. Finally, the last instruction: Note Washington QB Colt McCoy’s 113.5 QB Rating and ditch the clothespin. It won’t be needed today. The Clincher: The Rams are 1-12 ATS as road favorites versus opponents playing with revenge.

Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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