Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Wednesday, December 13, 2017


Best Bet Bowl and NFL Upsets


North Texas over Troy by 3

Bowl Mania kicks off in New Orleans but unlike the betting public who has already pushed the Trojans up to a touchdown favorite, we don’t think this visit to the Big Easy will be a walk in the park for the co-champions from the Sun Belt. Sure, the Troy boys have notched 10 wins for the second straight campaign, including 3-0 SUATS versus winning opposition this season, and are 6-1 SU in their last seven meetings with the Mean Green while North Texas got run over by FAU and the Lane Train in the Conference USA title tilt. However, we can’t get past the fact that in their season-ending 8-point win over Arkansas State to claim a share of their conference crown, Troy was outgained by 313 yards. Our database is also a bit leery of Neal Brown’s bunch as it notes the Trojans are just 2-7 ATS as favorites versus CUSA foes and 1-3 ATS as bowl chalk. Meanwhile, UNT is 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS versus the Belt when they sport a winning record and 2-0 ATS in this particular matchup when they arrive with rest. In addition, our soon-to-be-released 2017 PLAYBOOK BOWL STAT REPORT (available Thursday) reminds us that C-USA bowlers off a double-digit loss are 13-2 ATS. That’s plenty of good numbers in the Green’s favor but the fi nal tragedy for Troy comes courtesy of THE CLINCHER: Bowl favorites of 4 or more points on a 3-0 SUATS win streak are 3-9 SU and 1-11 ATS when facing a foe off a SUATS loss.



NFL

SEATTLE over LA Rams by 8

Let’s set the table. The Rams are 8-21-1 SU and 10-20 ATS in their last 30 division away games against winning division opponents, including 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS from Game 13 out. And while you might be saying these are not the old St. Louis Rams, we would counter that Jared Goff looked a little like the “old Goff” against Philadelphia. As for Seattle, if the playoffs started today the Seahawks would be on the sidelines, so this game is critical for them. Meanwhile, the potential loss of star LB Bobby Wagner (a Defensive POY candidate) would be devastating considering the Seahawks have already lost defensive starters Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril for the season. Just to give you an example of Wagner’s impact, the Seahawks were stout on defense in the 31 snaps with him on the fi eld last Sunday and allowed just 3 points to Jacksonville, but as soon as Wagner left the game with an aggravated hamstring injury, the fl oodgates opened and the Seahawks lost 30-24. Still, we believe in QB Russell Wilson, who has thrown for 17 TDs versus just one interception during the 4th quarter of games this season, an NFL record. Wilson is also 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS at home when the Seahawks are coming off a loss, including 6-0 SUATS during the second half of the season. Safe to say, we’re all over the Seahawks today provided they’ve got 11 starters on defense.




Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, December 07, 2017


Best Bet NFL Upsets DEC 10 Edition


Atlanta over New Orleans by 10

Week 14 in the league where they play for pay kicks off in Hotlanta but Mercedes-Benz Stadium has been anything but sizzling for the dirty birds as they have already dropped three games at home this season. However, none of them have been on Thursday and we don’t look for that to change tonight as our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 tells us that Thor’s Day has been a ‘House of Horrors’ for road teams on the division highway when facing a host off a SU home favorite loss. Even worse for New Orleans is their 0-4-1 ATS mark on this night from Game Eleven out and the Falcons’ 10-2 ATS log on Thursdays, including 7-1 ATS in division play. It also doesn’t take Captain Obvious to tell us that a loss all but seals Atlanta’s division fate as they already trail the Saints by two games. We should point out, too, that our NFL Quarterback Club not only fades New Orleans signal-caller Drew Brees (3-5 ATS against the Falcons when Atlanta arrives off a loss) but also headlines THE CLINCHER: Falcons QB Matt Ryan is 12-4 ATS in December against opponents coming off a SUATS win, including 7-1 ATS when his team is coming off a loss.



CAROLINA over Minnesota by 10

If the ‘Case’ isn’t closed on who should be starting in Minnesota these days, then the ‘Bridge-jumpers’ apparently haven’t been watching a Vikings’ group that has reeled off eight straight wins and has basically locked up the NFC North. With that being said, we still don’t trust Case Keenum as road chalk and his 1-4 ATS mark as a road favorite of 2 or more points attests to that. Yes, the Norsemen are a merry 17-5 ATS in their last 22 December duels but this is their third consecutive roadie and they’re a tiring 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in this spot – and we expect Cam and company to take full advantage! As it is, the Panthers are 6-1 ATS following an away game against a foe coming off an away game. And like the Jacksonville/Seattle contest, Minny has many more mulligans left in their bag than a Carolina crew that is fighting for their lives in the rugged NFC South. Even our NFL Coaches League sides with the Cats as head coach Ron Rivera is 17-8 SU and 16-8-1 ATS versus non-division foes coming off an ATS win of 7 or more points. More importantly, the INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK resides in THE CLINCHER: the Carolina Panthers are 13-1 ATS during the final four games of the season against opponents coming off a SU underdog win.


ARIZONA over Tennessee by 10

The Cardinals’ 2017 swoon has not been a big surprise. Before being injured and replaced by several second-rate journeymen at quarterback, Carson Palmer’s career was essentially over, his confidence shattered ever since Arizona was blasted by Carolina in the 2015 NFC Championship game. The league also seems to have caught up with HC Bruce Arians’ play-calling tendencies, plus the Cards have been continually victimized by a disappointing offensive line that can neither open holes for running backs nor provide any sort of protection when the QB drops back to pass. Truth is, though, we probably wouldn’t be so critical if Big Red hadn’t let down in a big way in last week’s drubbing at the hands of division foe Los Angeles. And since Zona is still mathematically alive to reach post-season play (how is that even possible?), we’ll give the Cardinals one last shot before owner Bill Bidwill decides to clean house. The 8-4 Titans are tied with Jacksonville atop the AFC South but they’ve had terrible luck following games against division foe Houston, going 2-9 SU and 2-8- 1 ATS away after tangling with the Texans. On the fl ip side, Arizona stands 19-5 SUATS as a home dog versus non-division foes, and a perfect 7-0 ATS with a losing record when coming off the Rams. Most important, our MIDWEEK ALERT reminds us that these two teams’ stats practically mirror one another, both offensively and defensively. The oddsmakers have noticed, tabbing Tennessee as a FG favorite instead of by the TD line many expected to see.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Wednesday, November 29, 2017


College and Pro Underdog Best Bets DEC 2-3


Wisconsin over Ohio State by 3

At first glance, it would appear that the Badgers want no part of the Buckeyes in this Discover Big Ten Championship as they are 0-5 SU and 1-3-1 ATS against Ohio State since 2010. Among those losses was a 59-0 whitewash in the 2014 title tilt which vaulted Urban Meyer’s gang past both TCU and Baylor and into the CFB Playoffs. However, a deeper look shows the Buckeyes stand 1-6 ATS versus 6-0 or greater Big Ten opposition and 2-7 ATS off a double-digit conference road win. It also pays to ‘Discover’ the power of our database as it notes: undefeated teams in conference title games are 18-10 SU since these games began in 1992, including 16-5 ATS against sub .900 opposition – which tightens to 12-2 ATS when these unbeatens surrender 16.5 or fewer PPG on the season. That’s certainly the case for the Badgers’ top-ranked stop-unit (236 YPG, 12 PPG) that is hitting on all cylinders, holding each of their last three foes to season-low yardage. Thus, we’re not about to sour on Wisky, not with dogs in this event 4-2 SU and 6-0 ATS all-time since its inception in 2011. And especially not after hearing from THE CLINCHER: The Badgers are 30-10-2 ATS as dogs of 3 or more points when owning a win percentage of .750 or greater, including 19-2-2 ATS in games in which they allow less than 19 PPG on the season.



NFL

ARIZONA over LA Rams by 7

For all the success the resurgent Rams have met with this season, remember this: they will take the fi eld today knowing they are just 3-9 ATS the last twelve games as division road favorites, including 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS against avenging foes. And you can paint the word revenge in red ink as far as head coach Bruce Arians is concerned: a 33-0 licking in London earlier this season marked the only time the Boss has been whitewashed in his NFL career. Los Angeles saunters into the desert sitting atop the NFC West having just pulled the plug on New Orleans’ 8-game win streak. And speaking of which, this comes from the all-knowing database: NFL teams who knock off a foe riding an 8-game exact win streak are just 5-8 SU and 4-8-1 ATS the following game, including 0-2 SUATS against division foes. Meanwhile, Arians is 8-2 ATS as an underdog during the month of December and also 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in the fi nal month of the season against an opponent coming off a SUATS win. With their confi dence back following an upset win over Jacksonville last week – in which they held the Jaguars to a season-low 219 yards of offense – we close it out with THE CLINCHER: Arians is 19-8 SUATS against foes coming off a SUATS win, including 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS at home.

CAROLINA over New Orleans by 6

All good things eventually come to an end. And they did for the super-surging Saints last week when they fell to the upstart Rams in Los Angeles, snapping an 8-game win skein. Unfortunately, for fans riding the N’Awlins carousel our well-oiled machine reports that NFL teams who lost their last game while riding an 8-game exact win streak are 0-3 SU facing a .700 or greater foe the following game. That and the fact that Carolina QB Cam Newton is 19-5 SU in his NFL career during the month of December. And we didn’t even mention that the Panthers are 6-1 ATS away off an AFC game when seeking revenge versus a division foe, as well as 6-1 ATS in the 2nd of consecutive away games with revenge. On the other side of the coin, New Orleans comes in 2-9 ATS as home favorites off an away game versus avenging division foes also off an away game. Finally, we close it out with THE CLINCHER: Carolina head coach Ron Rivera is 10-3 ATS away as an underdog when coming off a win, including 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS against sub .750 opponents.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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