Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Wednesday, September 26, 2018


Best College & Pro Upsets, SEP 29-30


NCAA

No Illinois over E MICHIGAN by 7

Okay, it’s time to stop piling on the Huskies. It’s a fact that Rod Carey’s NIU squad is off to a troubling 1-3 SU start in 2018 but the sled dogs’ three defeats came against Iowa, Utah and Florida State. Not that Eastern Michigan has been slumming: the 2-2 Eagles faced off with Purdue, Buffalo and San Diego State following their season opening romp over Monmouth, 51-17. The problem is that EMU returns to Ypsilanti after a pair of draining road contests, a 7-point loss to the unbeaten Bulls and a heart-breaking 3-point defeat at San Diego State in overtime. Our database notes that CFB home favorites coming off an overtime loss are just 57-79-4 ATS, good to know considering Eastern’s 2-9-1 ATS effort as MAC home chalk when owning a win percentage greater than .250. Yes, we know the Huskies have yet to gain 300 yards in the four games they’ve played thus far but that only tells us – like with a prolonged pregnancy – they are due to deliver any day now. The Eagles opened as 3-point chalk in this matchup, and the closest they’ve come to going off as game-time favorites versus Northern Illinois was back in 2016 when they were 1-point home dogs. In addition, the last five meetings on this field resulted in a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS edge to the Huskies. It’s impossible to ignore NIU’s series domination, winning 16 of the last 17 SU on the scoreboard versus EMU, and with the troubled hosts limping home off tough road losses, look for Northern Illinois to find its groove here this evening as we cement the call.


NEBRASKA over Purdue by 6

Boilers head coach Jeff Brohm said he wanted “losing to hurt” after Purdue opened the season 0-3 and his team prepared to face an undefeated Boston College team last Saturday in West Lafayette. Thanks, coach. A missed extra point attempt in the 2nd quarter by Boilers kicker Spencer Evans must have really hurt as he was seen immediately afterwards hugging a trash can and losing his pre-game lunch on the sidelines (Purdue medical staff led him away never to return). The pain was pointless, however, as the Boilers went on to a 30-13 victory and ended their winless streak. Unfortunately, they now find themselves in the unsuccessful role of road favorite where they are 0-5 ATS of late. As for the Cornhuskers, they started 0-3 for the first time since before helmets had faceguards (1945) when they were mauled by Michigan, 56-10. In fact, things got so bad against the Wolverines that at one point in the 4th quarter
Nebraska had lost more yards due to penalties (66) than they had gained on offense (61)! UM head coach Jim Harbaugh was kind after the game, saying, “They are an improving, ascending team.” Huh? ESPN reports that Nebraska has trailed Colorado 14-0, Troy 17-0, and Michigan 46-0 in their games this season. Enter new head Husker Scott Frost. We understand he’s trying to remold a winless team into a great one like he did at UCF, but our message to him is the time to start is NOW. With Big Red looking for any win they can get before
returning to the Big Ten road next week, look for the still-patient fans in Memorial Stadium to be the difference this afternoon. That and THE CLINCHER: Nebraska’s Frost is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in his career against sub .500 opponents.

NFL

NY GIANTS over NO by 7

After watching Drew Brees orchestrate another air assault in last week’s fi ve-quarter overtime win at Atlanta, we can only nod our heads in admiration. But the fact of the matter is Brees is only 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS away when coming off a SU division road win in his career, including 0-4 SUATS the last four. That sets the table for this tryst as the Giants return home following last week’s upset win at Houston knowing they are 7-3 SUATS as home dogs when coming off a SU underdog victory. In addition, fellow future Hall of Fame QB Eli Manning is 9-4-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 8-1 ATS against foes coming off consecutive wins. And with that we hand it off to THE CLINCHER: 1-2 NFL home dogs coming off a win are 18-6-1 ATS in Game Four of the season, including 5-0 ATS when hosting a foe coming off a SU underdog win.

DENVER over KC by 6

Wow. Thanks to phenom QB Patrick Mahomes, ESPN reports the Chiefs are only the second team in NFL history, and the first since the 1997 Patriots, to have 9 players with a TD catch in their first 3 games of the season. They are the hottest team in the loop and while 74% of NFL teams that start the season 3-0 have made the playoffs, it doesn’t help the Chiefs today. It’s never a good thing when you surrender 27 points and 406 yards and it’s your best defensive effort of the season. And not with the league’s worst defense (474 YPG) taking on Denver’s Top 10 ranked offense. It certainly doesn’t hurt knowing that the Broncos have been a premium home dog when taking on foes coming off a win, going 19-10-1 ATS, winning 18 of the games in straight-up fashion. And for what it’s worth, Denver has dressed up as a home dog only two times in this series dating back to 1980... and they won both games outright. We seal the deal with THE CLINCHER: Denver QB Case Keenum is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in his NFL career against foes coming off wins in each of their previous three games.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, September 20, 2018


Top College & Pro Upsets, Weekend of SEP 22


Marshall over NC State by 6

The 2-0 Wolfpack were another victim of Hurricane Florence’s postponement roll call last week, not getting the opportunity to square off with highly-ranked West Virginia at Raleigh. Now State makes its first road trip of the season before returning home again for a pair of ACC contests. In this case, though, that extra week of
rest may not pay off: 2-0 away teams in Game Three with a week of rest are 32-49 ATS, including 14-28 ATS in non-conference games. On the flip side, 2-0 home teams with rest like Marshall (the Herd’s game at South Carolina was also canceled) are a healthy 38-17 SU in Game Three when hosting non-division foes. Doc Holliday’s team backs up those numbers with a defi ant 6-1-2 ATS record in their last nine appearances as non-conference home dogs. Marshall also lays down the law with a 4-0-2 ATS effort of late versus the ACC, not to mention a 10-4 ATS run dating back to last year. Taking on the Herd at Huntington has never been easy; even in 2016’s horrendous 3-9 campaign, seven of their nine losses came on the road. All things considered, we look for Holliday to continue rebuilding the
Marshall mystique as his squad pulls one of the evening’s bigger upsets – fully supported by THE CLINCHER: Rested, undefeated non-conference home dogs are15-6 ATS versus undefeated foes, including 11-1 ATS against opponents playing off an ATS win – winning 7 of the games straight-up.



Texas over TCU by 10

The Froggies blew their chance to bring down mighty Ohio State last Saturday night in a hard-hitting contest where the Buckeyes seemed to wear out TCU in the late going of the 40-28 fi nal. Not so for Texas, who took full advantage of a shaky Southern Cal squad last week to roll up a big 37-14 revenge win over the Trojans. Now
the Horned Frogs travel to Austin for a matchup of 2-1 teams on Saturday afternoon. TCU is 3-10 ATS as Big 12 road chalk of less than 21 points and just 7-15 SUATS off a SU loss & ATS win when facing .500 or greater foes. The Longhorns enter off a 37 to 14 win over USC falling behind 14-3 before reeling off 34 unanswered points to secure the victory. Riding a wave of momentum after reeling off 34 unanswered points in the drubbing of USC, the Longhorns arethe answer to the Texas Two Step question: who leads and who follows on Saturday afternoon. Texas head coach Tom Herman is not only the answer to this Week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2, he’s also 20-4 SU in games in which his squad boasts a .666 or greater win percentage. Best of all, Herman’s adversary today chips in to provide THE CLINCHER: Gary Patterson is 3-10 ATS as a conference favorite.

NFL

SF over KC by 4

A matchup of the league’s latest en vogue quarterbacks – San Francisco’s Jimmy G and Patrick ‘KC Masterpiece’ Mahomes. The Patomic Bomb has tossed an NFL record 10 TD passes the first two weeks of the season to lead the Chiefs into the favorite’s role to the Super Bowl. However, before he’s crowned as the almighty,
the Kansas City Cannon is going to need his defense to make an appearance sooner than later. It’s a stop-unit that ranks DEAD LAST in the NFL, allowing 508 YPG to date. As a result, the Chiefs are 2-0 SUATS but 0-2 ITS this season as they’ve been outyarded in both games by 205 total yards. Perhaps it should come as no surprise, as Marc alludes to in his USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY column, that KC has been out-yarded in 50 of Andy Reid’s 87 games with the Chiefs. On the other side of the coin, Pistol Pat’s counterpart, Jimmy Garappolo, owns a 95.7 career passer rating and is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS as a starter in the NFL. In addition, the Niners are 3-0 SUATS away under Kyle Shanahan in games with at least one win on the season. With NFL teams playing their home opener in Game Three ofthe campaign just 20-45-2 ATS against non-division foes, we close it out with THE CLINCHER: San Francisco is 8-1 ATS with a .500 or greater record in games against foes off a SU underdog win.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, September 13, 2018


Marc Lawrence Best Upsets SEP 15-16


As Arte Johnson used to say while wearing a World War II German soldier’s uniform on Rowan and Martin’s Laugh-In (remember that?), this matchup between the Hurricanes and Rockets looks to be “Verrry interesting.




TOLEDO over Miami by 6

” Even though the MAC is off to a 9-12 SU start versus non-conference foes in 2018, the truth is SEVEN of those wins came at the expense of FCS opponents. And with league standard-bearers like Northern Illinois and Western Michigan off to miserable 0-2 starts, it’s a necessity that someone step forward to restore the conference’s dwindling reputation. We’ll hand that job to Toledo, 20-7 SU in two seasons under HC Jason Candle, and probably the only MAC squad currently capable of going toe-to-toe with a big-time Miami team. Although we do have to say ‘shame’ on the Hurricanes for scheduling hapless Savannah State last week, a team blanked 52-0 in a season-opening loss at UAB two weeks ago before being flattened by Miami last Saturday, 77-0. And if that blowout of SSU isn’t enough to put the Canes back in good graces with the pollsters despite Miami’s lopsided loss to LSU to kick off the year, then the new 7-pound turnover chain they unveiled drew enough attention to confirm the fact that, at the very least, the bling is back. UM shows up at the Glass Bowl with a solid 7-1 ATS mark as non-conference road chalk but current head coach Mark Richt has accounted for only one of those spread wins. Toledo counters with a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS log in non-MAC games when coming off a win of 21 or more points, plus the Rocketeers are an intriguing 5-1 SUATS of late as home dogs when they own a winning record. We’ll light this candle with THE CLINCHER: See this week’s AWESOME ANGLE on page 2.


NFL

JACKSONVILLE over New England by 8

Verrry interesting, indeed.The Jaguars enter this game carrying a huge revenge chip on their shoulder from last year’s loss at New England in the AFC title game. Yes, we realize the Patriots have won 21 games in a row against the AFC South, and that Pats QB Tom Brady holds a huge edge over Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles, but our well-oiled machine comes to the Jags’ rescue noting that home dogs in season openers that were in the playoffs the previous season are 4-1 SUATS when
coming off a win, as well as 10-4 ATS against foes arriving off a win. FYI: Bortles is 14-6-2 ATS as a dog in his NFL career against foes coming off a win including 7-0 ATS the last seven. Besides, New England’s 0-7 ATS mark away off a win of less than 8 points when facing an avenging foe looms large for the hosts. Biggest concern for the Jags this week is the injury status of star RB Leonard Fournette’s whose hamstring injury lists him as day-to-day at the moment. Nonetheless, the Patriots take the field in the worst of roles for defending Super Bowl losers and we’re ready to pounce on it with these revenge-minded cats as we turn it over to THE
CLINCHER:Defending Super Bowl losers are 1-7 SU and 0-8 ATS as a non-division road pick or favorite in games with a win percentage of greater than .666 if they were favored by 4 or more points in their previous game and are facing a greater than .500 opponent.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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