Friday, December 09, 2011

Marc Lawrence NFL Upsets for Week 13

PRO PICKS

TENNESSEE over New Orleans by 10

We know that the Saints are marching into Nashville with four straight wins and covers. But we bet you didn’t know that favorites off a SU and ATS home win which was preceded by a SU and ATS Monday night home win are just 2-14 ATS since 1990. The Saints are also a lax 2-9-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back roadies and that fi ts like Obama’s birth certifi cate on a counterfeit printing press to the Titans’ 10-2-1 ATS mark as dogs off a SU dog win. Add Tenny’s 15-3 SU and ATS log at home off a SU win of less than 7 points versus a foe with revenge – including a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS against non-division foes – to a 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 series mark since 1996 and you can see why we’re calling for the outright Tennessee win. And for all of you ‘situational’ players, the Saints’ two-game lead over Atlanta in the NFC South affords them the luxury of a trip-up while the Titans’ two-game deficit in the AFC South and battle for the Wildcard ensures a focused effort oday at LP Field. Grab the points but you won’t need ‘em as a rejuvenated Chris Johnson runs – and not marches – through the Saints secondary.


CHICAGO over DENVER by 7

Without Jay Cutler calling signals against KC last week, the Bears’ offense went into hibernation: 3 points, 181 total yards and 0-for-11 in 3rd-down situations. Now they have to travel to Mile High Stadium and try to corral a Broncos team that’s rolling off FIVE SU UNDERDOG WINS in a row. Yikes! However, even as Hollywood continues writing the script for ‘The Comeback Kid’ starring Denver QB Tim Tebow, our database reminds us that only three other teams have matched Denver’s streak and they went 1-2 SU and ATS intheir next game (0-2 SU and ATS when laying points). Those aren’t the only negative numbers saddling the Broncos today. The hosts are just 1-12 ATS in December off an NFC clash, and 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS all-time versus the NFC North. Chicago has dominated the series, going 7-1-1 ATS overall and cashing in three of the last four trips (one push) to the Rocky Mountains. Da Bears have also made the AFC West their bitches when playing off a SU loss, posting a confi dence-building 15-3 ATS record that tightens to a perfect 8-0
ATS away from the Windy City. A closer look at Denver’s come-from-behind win over Minnesota last week exposes the fact that John Fox’s squad was outgained by a whopping 153 yards. And to make matters even worse for the home team, Fox is the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. We know it’s always risky taking on a wounded bear but, in the end, they’re the ones that are the meanest and the ones that bite the hardest. Look for Chicago to call on its 8th-ranked rush defense to turn back Tebow and company in this high-altitude upset.


GIANTS over Dallas by 8

Though many will expect the Giants to suffer a letdown after nearly derailing the Packers’ perfect season last week, we think the G-men will carry confi dence from that effort into this contest. The Cowboys take the
field off a bitter OT loss to Arizona (winning FG in regulation was nullifi ed when Dallas called for a timeout right before the kick) and won’t be riding high from the looks of the ATS archives. Not only are the Pokes a lifeless 0-11 ATS in December off a SU favorite loss versus an opponent playing with revenge, they’re also an unlucky 2-6 SU and 1-6-1 ATS of late in Game Thirteen of the season. Some of that failure can be laid at the feet of Cowboys QB Tony Romo: he’s 19-2 SU as a starter in November but only 8-10 SU from December out. Eli Manning, fresh off a 347-yard, 4-TD passing performance against Green Bay, leads Big Blue into Big D knowing he’s gone 17-8 SU and 18-7 ATS on the road versus a foe off a SU and ATS loss. The Giants also boast a bankroll-building 9-0 ATS log as a December dog off a non-division game versus a foe off a loss. The clincher comes from our database as it reminds us that 6-6 teams in Game Thirteen of the season playing off a loss with revenge are 23-8 SU and ATS, including 11-1 ATS when not forced to lay points. Yes, we realize New York has dropped four games in row but when we toss in the Pokes’ recent troubles in this series (1-3 SU and ATS), we have no problem siding with the tall guys here.




Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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