Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Tuesday, March 29, 2011


NCAA ROUND UP… THE FINAL FOUR ON OUT


It’s onward to Houston for the Final Four games. To put the wraps on the 2011 NCAA Tournament, listed below are some interesting trends and angles to consider before our Fab Four lifts off this weekend. All results listed below are ATS (Against The Spread) and most recent since 1991 unless noted otherwise. Enjoy…

FINAL 4 ROUND NOTES

• #3 seeds are 7-3 (4-0 SU and ATS as favs or dogs of 4 or less points)
• #8 or lower seeds are 0-3
• Teams off BB SU dog wins are 1-8
• Teams who are 3-0 ATS last 3 games are 9-24
• Teams with revenge are 2-7
• Big East teams are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS
• SEC teams are 6-2 as dog or favorites of less than 7 points
• Teams with the greater win percentage are 10-2 SU and ATS S/2005
• Returnees from last year in this round are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS as favorites



CHAMPIONSHIP GAME NOTES

• #3 seed dogs are 1-3
• #5 or worse seeds are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS
• Favorites of 5 or less points are 10-1
• Favorites who scored 80 > points in the Final 4 round are 4-1
• Teams with a win percentage of .810 < are 0-4 SU & ATS
• Teams off an ATS win of 16 or more points are 1-5 SU and ATS
• Dogs of more than 2 points who allowed 60 > points in Final 4 round are 1-5
• Dogs 3 or more points off a SU dog win are 1-5
• Big East teams are 3-0 SU and ATS
• SEC teams are 3-0 ATS as favorites

COACH ME UP

• Butler’s Brad Stevens is:
48-56-4 ATS as a favorite and 16-6-1 ATS as a dog
33-16-2 ATS vs non-conference
10-3 SU and ATS in NCAA tournament
2-2 SU and ATS vs Big East
1-0 SU and ATS vs CAA
1-2 SU and ATS vs SEC

• Connecticut’s Jim Calhoun is:
228-236-12 ATS as a favorite and 63-57-1 ATS as a dog
98-98-5 ATS vs non-conference
43-13 SU and 28-27-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
7-1 SU and 2-6 ATS vs CAA
0-0 SU and 0-0 ATS vs Horizon League
13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS vs SEC

• Kentucky’s John Calipari is:
237-204-14 ATS as a favorite and 53-27-1 ATS as a dog
129-98-5 ATS vs non-conference
32-13 SU and 23-21-1 ATS in NCAA tournament
23-8 SU and 17-13-1 ATS vs Big East
6-0 SU and ATS vs CAA
2-0 SU and ATS vs Horizon League

• VCU’s Shaka Smart is:
24-26-1 ATS as a favorite and 9-6 ATS as a dog
14-12 ATS vs non-conference
5-0 SU and ATS in NCAA tournament
1-1 SU and ATS vs Big East
0-0 SU and ATS vs Horizon League
0-1 SU and ATS vs SEC

There you have it, trends and notes of teams and coaches for the NCAA Final Four and out games played the last 20 years. I hope you’ve enjoyed the tournament as much as I have. I’ll return during the NBA playoffs with an overview of some Good, Bad, and downright Ugly stats and trends. Until then, enjoy the rest of the ‘Dance’.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Tuesday, March 22, 2011


SWEET 16 RETURNEES… Buyer Beware


With the 2011 NCAA Tournament entering the SWEET 16 round, let’s take a different perspective in analyzing the teams that have arrived. It pertains specifically to teams that are returning to the SWEET 16 for the 2nd straight year. Do they perform like a team with experience and panache, or do they execute like CEO’s looking for golden parachutes and cushy bonuses while steering a sinking ship? Let’s take a peek.

How Do You Do

According to our database, since 1991, teams making a right-back appearance in the SWEET 16 from the previous year are 56-39 SU and 42-51-1 ATS in Round Three of the tourney. The cut-line, however, is often times the pointspread.

That’s confirmed by the fact that favorites of more than 6 points are 31-2 SU and 21-12 ATS in these games. Priced at anything less (dog or favorite of 6 or fewer points), they dip drastically to 25-37 SU and 21-39-1 ATS in competitive contests.

Last year witnessed five SWEET 16 returnees, all of whom collectively managed to go 2-2-1 ATS during this round.



All Aboard

Taking a look at this year’s list of returnees, we find no less than four teams that were here last year. They include – Butler, Duke, Kentucky and Ohio State.

Looking at it from a different perspective, one major exception to the rule is that SWEET 16 returnees seem to struggle when arriving off a win of less than 10 points, going just 13-27-2 ATS.

Sayanora

Worse, when SWEET 16 returnees arrive off a single digit win after having won their opening round tournament game by fewer than 15 points they drop to 7-15 SU and 4-16-1 ATS, including 2-14-1 when facing a foe off an ATS win. FYI: The life rafts ready and standing by for Butler and Kentucky.

The bottom line is you can draw your own conclusions, if you like. But make no mistake, when it comes to handicapping teams in the SWEET 16, the winners will likely be the better-qualified teams that have ‘been there-and-done that’. Or those who know how to keep a ship afloat, if you know what I mean…


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Wednesday, March 02, 2011


College Basketball’s Last Home Games… Rounding Third and Heading Home


In the blink of an eye the 2011 NCAA Basketball Tournament will begin its annual pulse-pounding extravaganza. In all likelihood hearts will be broken, a new champion crowned, and memories of upsets and game-winning shots will leave the court in assured dramatic fashion when the 'Big Dance' takes center stage Thursday, March 17th.

Before we take in all the 'Big Dance' has to offer, there remains the final portion of the regular season as teams jockey for position prior to conference seeding tournament action. As you know, the higher the finish in the regular season standings the better the slotting in conference tourney play. And with it comes my favorite time of the regular season, namely Last Home Games.

Last Home Games often times find teams putting their best foot forward. This happens primarily because teams choose to honor outgoing seniors in their final home game. It is 'their day', a game played in recognition of the sweat and toil laid on the line by seniors on the squad in their four years at the university. These games also carry added significance from other emotional angles as well.



Most teams look to leave a favorable impression in their final home game of the season. Adding fuel to the fire, revenge is a great performance enhancer in Last Home Game scenarios. Playing off a loss (or a string of defeats) tends to bring out the best in these finales. So, too, does playing in the role of an underdog, especially when it involves winning teams.

In fact, a search of my powerful database shows me that, on the blind, double-digit (+10 or more points) underdogs in their final home game of the season are a rather nifty 70-52-3 ATS since 1990.

In addition, home dogs in their Last Home Game who won their previous game straight up as an underdog are just as impressive, going 70-51-5 ATS. And if these teams own a win percentage of .464 or more they are 36-17-2 ATS, including 30-12-1 ATS when seeking revenge.

That’s it for now. I’m heading home and getting ready for the Big Dance, if you know what I mean…



Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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