Thursday, January 18, 2018
Marc Lawrence Playoff Upset, Jan 20-21
Philadelphia over Minnesota by 4
Shock and Skol. Safe to say, Minnesota should not be here. Not when the Vikings were 25 seconds and 75 yards away from elimination. Not after blowing a 17-0 halftime lead. And definitely not after trailing with 10 seconds left from their own 39-yard line! QB Case Keenum made one last play-call: Seventh Heaven. Somehow, miraculously, it worked and as a result they find themselves as 3-point favorites in the NFC championship game in Philly, looking to become the first team in NFL history to host a Super Bowl game with a win today. It’s quite a story, but so too is the Philadelphia saga, one we feel most are overlooking. And our database concurs, noting the Vikings are just 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS on the playoff road since 1988. On the other side of the coin, though, is the fact that teams coming off a SU home underdog playoff win are just 1-16 SU and 2-15 ATS in follow-up games. But we can’t dismiss the fact that Minnesota has NEVER beaten Philadelphia in the playoffs, going 0-3 SUATS all-time dating back to 1980. Toss in the fact that No. 1 seeds are 28-12 SU in championship games since 1980, including 7-0 the last four years, and we’re ready to soar with the Eagles. After all, they literally shine at home under Doug Pederson, going 14-3 SU – the best home record in the NFL. In addition, they rank No. 1 in the NFL with a 197 point scoring differential at home, as well as having allowed just 241 points at the LINC, marking the fewest such points allowed over the same span. Then there is the ugliness of indoor teams playing outdoors during the playoffs with game time temperatures of 35 or fewer degrees, a bitter stat that has seen these temperature-controlled teams go just 4-24 SU (see Atlanta here last week). And we didn’t even mention that NFL playoff home dogs with an equal or better record are 19-6-1 ATS since 1980. Forget the Skol chant. Around these parts, it’s Fly Eagles Fly.
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Friday, January 05, 2018
Marc Lawrence NFL Playoff Upset
New Orleans Over Carolina by 1
Same-season rematches in the NFL playoffs aren’t rare. They just aren’t all that profitable (90-79-4 ATS since 1990). It’s noteworthy in this contest, though, as the Saints took the Panthers behind the woodshed twice this season. Still, Carolina is 5-2 SUATS as an underdog this season, and the Panthers are 4-0 SUATS in playoff games against foes coming off a loss. The problem is Superman (re: Cam Newton) has been overdosing on too much kryptonite of late as the black cats have been outgained in 5 of their last 6 games. In addition, Carolina finds itself in a similar role to Buffalo in that away teams in the NFL playoffs, following a season-ending away game, tend to struggle in opening-round games. That’s confi rmed by a dismal 22-55 SU and 24-48-4 ATS mark since 1980. The question is can the Saints, who are 6-1 SUATS versus .600 or greater opponents this season, take advantage as they, too, are stumbling at the finish line. Since its 8-game win streak from the end of September to late November, New Orleans is just 3-3 SU, as well as 2-4 ATS and ITS, in its last 6 games. Looking inside the stats in this game – as we like to do each week in the MIDWEEK ALERT – Carolina was outyarded by -35 net YPG during the second half of the season, while New Orleans was also outgained during the final six games of the campaign. With no major edges either way, we’ll lean to the double-avenging division dog with the better defense.
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Wednesday, December 27, 2017
Best Bet College and NFL Upsets, DEC 28-31
UCF over Auburn by 3
How well liked is UCF head coach Scott Frost? So much so that when the Associated Press Coach of the Year accepted the head job at Nebraska immediately after winning the AAC Championship over Memphis, his players convinced him to remain a little longer and coach them in today’s game. In fact, the Knights are gunning to complete the ’perfect cycle’ as UCF was winless when Frost took over last year and will be looking to go out undefeated (13-0) behind him here. Auburn’s season peaked with its home win over Alabama, then headed south fast after the Tigers’ 28-7 beatdown in the SEC Title game against Georgia. Thus, despite the fact that SEC bowlers are 9-4 ATS against ‘Group of 5’ teams in bowl games, we look for a goingthrough-the-motions effort from the disappointed Tigers against the high-as-a-kite Knights today. It’s bad enough for Auburn that conference championship game losers are 4-8-1 ATS as bowl favorites of 8 or more points, including 0-5-1 ATS with a win percentage of less than .800, but HC Gus Malzahn’s cats are just 21-18 SU, 16-21-2 ATS, and 22-17 ITS versus bowlers the last four years. Contrast that with Central Florida’s quantum leap from 2016 to 2017: the Knights were 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS, and 1-6 ITS versus bowlers last season but improved to 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS and 4-3 ITS this season. And even though UCF was one of the most heavily penalized teams in the FBS, the Knights managed a tie for No. 2 in the net TO Margin (+1.25). The cement comes from our well-oiled machine as it supplies THE CLINCHER: College bowl dogs of 7 or more points off a win of 7 or more points who allow less than 25 PPG are 2-15-1 ATS vs. foes off a loss who allow 15 or more PPG.
NFL
CINCINNATI over Baltimore by 6
The first of three “win and you’re in” teams on today’s season-ending card (the Falcons and the Titans the others) fi nds the Ravens taking on their pesky division rival from Cincinnati, a team that has taken down the Black Birds in 6 of the last 8 series meetings. Complicating matters, the Bengals are also likely stoked to send departing head coach Marvin Lewis out a winner. And they bring dual sparkling 10-2 ATS marks into this game, both as dogs following a SU underdog win and in Last Road Games when owning a sub .500 record. Aiding Baltimore’s 5-1 winning skein since its Bye week has been a superlative 15-2 turnover edge. Hence, it’s no surprise that the Ravens are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in games in which they’ve managed to win the turnover battle, and 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS when they’ve been on the wrong side of the giveaways this season. Thus the question begs, can Cincy play a clean game today (they are averaging a respectable 1.27 TO’s per contest this year). On the fl ip side, Baltimore is 1-10 ATS at home when coming off consecutive wins and facing an opponent coming off a home game. With QB Joe Flacco sporting 7 TD passes and only 1 INT this month, the pressure is squarely on his shoulders today. With that, we’ll fade these “must-win” birds. Remember, the Bengals’ abysmal season started in a hole with a 20-0 home loss to Baltimore in their season opener.
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
