Friday, January 24, 2014

Denver Looks Super

BRONCOS by 6 over SEAHAWKS

To better visualize the winner of Super Bowl XLVIII we look to Winston Churchill, who once said, “The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.” In the case of Super Bowls past, we can look back as far as 1967.Coupled with the power of our way-back machine – aka the PLAYBOOK database – let’s break down what appears to be a very evenly matched Super Bowl game between Denver and Seattle. Here is our list of checks and balances for SB XLVIII. Even Steven – Not only is SB XLVIII the first Super Bowl in 20 years to pair No. 1 seeds from each conference, both teams bring identical 15-3 records into the fray.
Looking deeper, each team squared off against five common opponents (both faced the AFC South) this season, both going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS in those games with Denver going 5-0 ITS (In The Stats) for a net of
+748 yards. Seattle was 4-1 ITS for net of +428 yards. In games versus fellow playoff teams this season, the Broncos went 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, 7-2 ITS for a net of +621 yards. The Seahawks were 4-2 SUATS and 3-2-1 ITS, for a net of +244 yards.

Edge: None



Head-To-Head – The Broncos are 16-5 SU and 12-8-1 ATS in games versus the Seahawks since 1993. Denver has won the last 10 games in a row in this series in games in which they’ve owned a win percentage of .800 or greater. Seattle is 1-19 SU in its last twenty games versus AFC West opponents who sport a win percentage of .800 or greater.

Edge: Broncos

Statistically Speaking – Seattle’s defense is ranked No.1 overall, surrendering 284 YPG while allowing a league low 15 PPG. Denver’s offense is ranked No. 1 overall, gaining 454 YPG, scoring a league best
36 PPG. This marks the fifth time in Super Bowl history that a team with the No.1 defense has faced the team with the No. 1 offense. Defense has won over offense in three of the four previous meetings. In addition, teams with the better defense have won 39 of the previous 47 Super Bowls. However, teams with the better defense are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS the last seven Super Bowls.

Edge: None

Logistically Speaking – Teams arriving to the Super Bowl off three consecutive home games (Seattle) are 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS since 2000, including 0-5 SUATS off a win of 6 or less points Super Bowl teams off four consecutive home games (Seattle) are 0-3 SU and ATS since 2000, losing all three times SU as a favorite. The Seahawks’ last game away from Seattle was 34 days ago (December 15). Super bowl favorites of 5 or less points in ‘double rest’ affairs – a week of rest before their first playoff game and week of rest before the Super Bowl – are 1-7 SUATS (Broncos).

Edge: None

Behind Center – To no one’s surprise, both quarterbacks bring terrific QB Ratings in to the contest. Denver’s Peyton Manning finished the regular season as the league’s top-ranked signal caller at 115.1 on 55
TDs and 10 INTs. Seattle’s Russell Wilson owned a 101.2 QB Rating, with 26 TDs and 9 INTs. The postseason’s QB Ratings show Manning at 107.0, while Wilson’s numbers have further regressed during the playoffs down to 89.1. Manning is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in his career versus Seattle, including 2-0 ATS as a favorite. He is also 28-7 SU and 22-12-1 ATS with the Broncos, including 8-0 ATS as a favorite of 6 or less points. After winning SB XLI with the Colts in 2007, Manning has completed 248 of 366 passes for 18 TDs and 7 INTS in a total of nine postseason efforts since Wilson is 27-9 SU and 25-11 ATS as a starting QB with the Seahawks,
including 5-4 SU and 8-1 ATS as a dog. He has tossed for less than 200 yards in over half of his starts, 19 to be exact, including nine this season (including each of his last six games). FYI: the Manning-led Broncos are 12-2 SU and 10-4 ATS in games where they hold opponents to 200 or less passing yards.

Edge: Broncos

On The Sidelines – Denver’s John Fox brings an 8-5 SUATS NFL postseason career mark into this game, dropping a 32-29 decision as a 7-point dog to New England in SB XXVII. Fox is just 11-22 SU and 12-
20-1 ATS in his NFL career in games versus .769 or greater opposition. Seattle’s Pete Carroll is 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS in his NFL playoff career. The good news is Carroll is 36-24-4 ATS as a dog in the NFL. The bad news is he is 1-5 SUATS as a dog of 2 or less points, and 0-11 SU as a dog in games in which his team owns a win percentage of .647 or higher.

Edge: None

Super Bowl History

• The NFC has controlled the last 32 Super Bowls, going 21-11 SU and 20-10-3 ATS, including 4-1 SUATS the last five years. The AFC, though, actually holds the upper hand of late, going 10-6 SU the last 16 years.

• The last NFC No. 1 seed (Seahawks), other than New Orleans in 2009, to win a Super Bowl was St. Louis in 2000.

• Teams who lost SU as a favorite in the playoffs the previous season (Broncos) are 4-9 SUATS the next year in the Super Bowl since 1982, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS as a favorite.

• Favorites of 3 or less points (Broncos) are 7-4 SU and ATS, and 5-6 UNDER.

• 17 of the last 20 quarterbacks have owned a QB Rating of 92.6 or better.

• Teams who lost SU as a playoff favorite last year (Broncos) are 4-10 SU and ATS, including 0-6 ATS as favorites.

• Favorites who allow 3.9 or more Yards Per Rush (Broncos) are 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS.

• Teams who won their last two playoff games against foes that were off a playoff road win (Seahawks) are 4-8 SUATS, including 1-5 SUATS since 2000.

• Teams who score 20 or fewer points in the game are 6-30 SU and 9-33 ATS. Teams who score 21 or more points in the game are 40-12 SU and 36-14-2 ATS.

• The SU winner of a Super Bowl game is 39-6-2 ATS all-time.

Edge: None

The Bottom Line – Tallying up the scorecard we find Denver holding a… 2-0 edge. That’s it. The main advantage – and it’s a big one – is having league MVP QB Peyton Manning at the controls. The edge is
quantified when experience is added into the mix as he certainly passes the eyeball test over his sophomore counterpart, Russell Wilson. Granted, league MVP QB’s have struggled throughout the history of the Super Bowl (6-11 SU and 5-10-2 ATS in all games), but if Winston Churchill – after venturing into the past – could look into the future, he’d like what he sees in this sure-fire future Hall of Fame signal caller. And so do we.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Marc Lawrence NFC Championship Upset Jan. 19

49ers Over Seahawks by 3

This should be interesting. Yes, Seattle brings the NFL’s No. 1 defense into this fray but Pete Carroll’s Seahawks have not been playing with the same fiery intensity they used to lock up home field advantage for today’s game, especially QB Russell Wilson. Wilson may own an intimidating 16-1 SU and 12-5 ATS record on his home turf but he’s looked like ‘Little Boy Lost’ in recent weeks, failing to throw for 200 yards in the last five games and finishing 9 of 18 for a career-low 103 yards in Seattle’s 23-15 win over the Saints last Saturday. Not so for Frisco QB Colin Kaepernick, who has clearly saved his best for the playoffs, battering foes with both his arm and his legs. ‘King Tat’ thrives on the NFL highway, going 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS in his brief career, and his 49ers can become the 4th team in a row to reach the Super Bowl despite having to win three straight playoff games on the road. According to our powerful database, that’s a good news-bad news scenario for San Francisco.



Good: playoff road teams who were favored on the playoff road in their previous game are 8-1 ATS. Bad: Super Bowl losers are 0-11 SU and 2-8-1 ATS as playoff dogs of 3 or more points. Even so, the Niners are the first Super Bowl loser since 1977 to make it back to a conference championship game – which speaks volumes about who they are – plus it’s the 3rd straight year Jim Harbaugh’s gold-diggers have reached the NFC
title game. Our well-oiled machine also informs us that since 1990, playoff matchups involving division rivals who lost the most recent game involving a series split have gone just 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS, including 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS when facing a .720 or greater foe. Harbaugh owns a solid ATS edge over Carroll, too: Jawin’ Jim is 12-2 SUATS versus greater-than .700 opposition while Petey is only 1-7 ATS as division chalk off back-to-back wins, including 0-5 ATS when favored by 3 or more points. Remember, no NFC #1 seed has won the Super Bowl since 1999 – and you can’t win the prize if you don’t get there. The 49ers fi eld a pretty stout defense of their own (ranked No. 5 in the league) and with the hungry Kaepernick making all the right moves, we’ll call for San Fran to crush the Seahawks’ Super Bowl dreams in Seattle.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Friday, January 03, 2014

Marc Lawrence Bowl and Playoff Upsets Jan. 3-5

ORANGE BOWL

Clemson over Ohio St by 6

If you’re a Clemson fan, the last thing you want to hear about is the Tigers’ previous trip to this bowl, a 70-33 blowout loss to West Virginia – a loss so one-sided that many were deluded into thinking QB Geno Smith could flourish in the NFL. Something you will appreciate hearing, though, is an absolute ton of trends that should very likely converge to bury the Buckeyes tonight. Ready? New Year’s Day and later ACC bowlers are 9-3-1 ATS off SUATS loss, all ACC bowl dogs off a loss are 17-4-1 ATS, including 12-1 ATS 12-1 ATS when getting +3.5 or more points, and ACC bowl dogs off a loss are 17-
4-1 ATS! Wait it gets better – or worse if you’re an Ohio State fan. New Year’s Day and later Big 10 bowlers are just 2-16 SU and 3-15-1 ATS off DD ATS loss, and the Bucks are a weak 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS of late in bowl games off a loss. The Clincher? Bowl teams off their first loss of the season that won 7 or more games last year and allow more than 15.5 PPG on the season are 0-6 ATS since 1990. Whew! Don’t expect a cakewalk as OSU HC Urban Meyer is a fearsome 48-4 SU and 34-10-1 ATS versus non- conference opposition, besides being 6-1 SUATS in bowl games. But the Buckeye defense is clearly down a notch, best illustrated by allowing 34 points to offensively-challenged Michigan State in their bitterly disappointing Big 10 Championship game loss. With Clemson’s ‘D’ leading the nation in tackles for loss (9.4 per game), we’ll call for Tiger QB Tajh Boyd to keep pace with OSU’s Braxton Miller and pull out a late upset win for Clemmie.



GREEN BAY over San Francisco by 3

Simply put, we just don’t feel that this 49ers team is as good as the one from last year: Kaepernick is defi nitely not as sharp, and the defense is not as dominant. Nor do we feel strongly that the Niners can go into the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field and beat a recovered Aaron Rodgers in the clutch. The Green Bay signalcaller owns a 5-3 SUATS mark in the playoffs, and the early game forecast is for 17 degrees with snow flurries possible. San Fran has won and covered just 5 of the last 19 showdowns between these two squads. HC Jim Harbaugh has had good success over non-division opponents, going 26-9 SU and 26-8-1 ATS – including
12-3 SU and 13-2 ATS away – and is 3-0 SUATS mark over Mike McCarthy. However, Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS since 1980 in opening playoff games on the road the following season. There is also a serious revenge angle here since the 49ers knocked the Pack out of the playoffs last season, then came back and 0-4-1 ATS since 1980 in opening playoff games on the road the following season. There is also a serious revenge angle here since the 49ers knocked the Pack out of the playoffs last season, then came back and that them again in the opening weekend this year. The all-powerful database kicks in with two interesting trends: 8-win teams are 5-0 ATS in the playoffs since 2000, and are 3-0 SUATS all-time as playoff hosts. Plus, NFL playoff home dogs are 20-14 and 22-12 ATS since 1980, including 15-7 SU and 16-6 ATS when seeking revenge. Green Bay has waited a long time for some payback, and they get it here. Smile and say cheese.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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