Friday, September 23, 2016

Marc Lawrence Upset Best Bets, Week 3

PITTSBURGH over North Carolina by 7

In full support of the smokin’ hot SMART BOX, we’re off and running with the Panthers again this week. And our MIDWEEK ALERT agrees as well, noting Pitt’s powerful running game is averaging 240 RYPG, anchored by Heisman hopeful James Conner and his understudy Quadree Ollison (ACC Freshman of the Year with 1,121 rushing yards). In fact, these numbers fi t like a glove into a jelly-soft Tar Heels’ rush defense that allows 227 RYPG. The shocking stat from last week was the 640 yards given up by Pitt’s defense to a pissed-off Oklahoma State squad, but we can pretty much guarantee that a defensive mastermind like head coach Pat Narduzzi will not allow it to happen again. In fact, his troops are the only FBS team in the nation to have no regular games decided by more than 21 points the past two seasons – meaning they are in every game they play (average loss less than 7 PPG). On the fl ip side, the Heels put up 104 points against the likes of Illinois and James Madison this season, but were outstatted by 159 yards in a 9-point loss to Georgia. Also, consider that UNC is 0-3 SUATS in its last three lined games before facing Florida State. But when push comes to shove, here’s THE CLINCHER: The Panthers are 5-0 ATS as road dogs with triple revenge-exact and 4-0 ATS on the road with revenge under Narduzzi.



Arkansas over Texas A&M by 3

This battle of undefeated Top 25 teams will be played at Jerry’s World in Arlington and sees the 17th-ranked Hogs looking to avenge four straight losses in this series, as they stand 5-2-1 ATS with quadruple revengeexact. They do, however, hold an impressive 9-2 spread record in their last 11 matchups with the Aggies, including 4-1 ATS at neutral sites. The Razorback offense was expected to struggle after the graduation of QB Brandon Allen, but his baby brother has stepped in marvelously in the early going. Austin Allen has completed 67% of his passes for 655 yards and engineered a big OT win over TCU in Week 2, moving the Hogs into the rankings. The 10th-ranked Aggies have a huge OT win of their own under their belts after knocking off UCLA in the opener, and are now coming off a big revenge win at Auburn last week. However, with just a 5-9 ATS mark as favorites on neutral fi elds and a weak 2-10 ATS record versus revenge in the SEC, we’re up for some BBQ today. Woo Pig Sooie!

NFL

Chicago over Dallas by 3

Watching a suffering Bear is not a pretty sight. After a promising offseason in which Marc Lawrence recommended Chicago as a season-win total ‘Over’ play at the Westgate SuperContest seminar in Las Vegas, they have performed like more like cubs (not the 2016 MLB team) to start the 2016 season. Tonight they journey to Dallas with QB Jay Cutler nursing an aggravated thumb injury on his throwing hand, which means we’ll likely see Brian Hoyer behind center – and that suits us to a tee. Hoyer is 15-11 SU and 16-9-1 ATS as a starter in this league, including 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in games in which his team is playing off a loss. In addition, Chicago head coach John Fox saw his 7 game personal win skein against rookie quarterbacks snapped in Monday night’s loss to the Eagles. On the fl ip side, the Cowboys will look to win back-to-back games without Tony Romo, a tall task considering they are 2-13 SU without him the past two seasons. Rookie QB Dak Prescott has been a pleasant surprise but it’s Jason Garrett that gets in the way tonight, bringing an 8-24 ATS record as a home favorite as a head coach in his NFL career into tonight’s fray, including 5-20 ATS the last 25 games, and 2-12 ATS when coming off a division game. This is the classic case of the distressed Bears being better off away from their den as they look to straighten things out under the Sunday Night lights. THE CLINCHER: Chicago is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in games coming off a Monday Night loss.



Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

Comments (0)

Thursday, September 15, 2016

College & Pro Underdog Best Bets September 16

MICHIGAN STATE over ND by 7

So begins the next chapter in Michigan State football… let’s call it ‘AC’ (after Cook). In Sparty’s season opener against Furman, it looked like things would be FUBAR without graduated signal caller extraordinaire, Connor Cook. But new QB Tyler O’Conner kept throwing and three TDs later, MSU closed out the pesky Paladins, 28-13. Now it’s time for bigger business, and our database dutifully shares the Spartans’ 6-0 ATS mark before playing Wisconsin, along with a 10-2-1 ATS success when playing off an unlined home win. Need we mention that Sparty is looking to avenge three straight losses in this series? What we fi nd especially appealing is MSU head coach Mark Dantonio’s record in away games – where his teams have managed to win SU in 35 of 65 games – and his 17-6-1 ATS record when facing a foe off a SUATS win (he’s also 5-1 SUATS as a dog when playing with rest). Yes, the Irish punished Nevada last week in front of Touchdown Jesus to chase away memories of their OT loss to Texas, but the well-oiled machine won’t be giving out ATS party favors to the Golden Domers tonight. Brian Kelly’s boys are a dismal 0-5 ATS at home versus a rested opponent, 2-12 ATS as chalk of more than 6 points versus a Big Ten foe, and just 2-6 in the second of three straight games at Notre Dame Stadium. Yikes! If our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 doesn’t do it for you, there’s always THE CLINCHER: MSU coach Dantonio is 8-0-1 ATS in his career away in games off a win when seeking revenge agaisnt an opponent off a win – including a 17-14 victory as a 16.5-point dog behind O’Conner at Ohio State last year.



NFL

INDIANAPOLIS over Denver by 10

Safe to say the Broncos are coming off their most satisfying wins in franchise history, with back-to-back victories over Cam Newton and the Panthers in the last year’s Super Bowl 50 and this year’s season opener this past week. Meanwhile, the Broncos are just 1-8 SU and 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games in this series. In addition, Denver is just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS as a favorite in games off a win when tackling the AFC South. Enter Andrew Luck and his 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS log as a dog of less than 7 points in this league. More important our sister publication, the MIDWEEK ALERT (which debuts next week) points out this a classic ‘double-inside-out’ affair, meaning Indy lost the game but won the stats while Denver won the game yet lost the stats in each of their contests last week. The Colts’ 6-0 ATS mark against the AFC West, and the Broncos’ 0-5-1 ATS ledger in their 2nd home games cements it. And lest we forget, there is always THE CLINCHER: Colts QB Luck is 16-4 SUATS in games off a loss in his NFL career, including 7-1 SUATS away.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

Comments (0)

Friday, September 09, 2016

Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets Weekend 1

Rice over ARMY by 6

...Our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK expects an about-face considering the Cadets are 0-18 SU and 4-14 ATS in games off a SU win (upset Temple last Saturday) since 2010. They are also a winless 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in this series since 2006 – taking points in each of the last three contests. Yes, Army took ‘offense’ to our comments that we wouldn’t trust them facing ISIS on the road, scoring 28 points in the surprise win, but they may actually be in a more precarious position today in West point as: non-conference favorites in Game Two of the season, off a SU win as a dog of 10 or more points in Game One, are just 4-12-1 ATS since 1980. In addition, Rice returns 16 starters and is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in games off its initial loss of the season over the last six years. And though these Owls don’t appear as wise as the ones from Temple, they benefit from the fact that the hosts fall prey to THE CLINCHER: Army is 4-18 as favorites of more than 7 points, including 0-6 ATS versus a foe that won five or more games the previous season.



NFL

SAN DIEGO over Kansas City by 6

Despite finishing the season with positive overall stats, the Bolts were swept in all six of their division contests last season. That’s not good news for the AFC West this year, as NFL teams suffering this fate have gone 86-59-2 ATS in division games the following season since 1999. All of which sets the table for this opening day payback. QB Philip Rivers, who engineered an offense that improved 30 YPG last season, reunites with former OC Ken Whisenhunt – which should work wonders on Rivers’ gaudy 10-2-1 ATS career mark as a road dog in division games. On the other side of the coin, Kansas City has gone ‘over’ its season win total each of the last 3 years and, as a result, has endeared itself to its backers. What wasn’t endearing to us was their 10-game win skein last season, after a 1-5 start. It included victories against the Steelers without Big Ben; over the Lions in London; the Broncos in Peyton Manning’s worst game of his career; against this same San Diego squad without 5 OL starters; the Raiders thanks to three 4Q picks by Derek Carr; the Ravens with Jimmy Clausen behind center; and the Browns in a game in which Cleveland outstatted the Chiefs by 100 yards. In the final tally, they had just TWO WINS versus winning foes throughout the course of the fortuitous run. Toss Chiefs head coach Andy Reid’s 5-10 SU and 5-9-1 ATS mark in home openers into the mix and you understand our stance in this contest.



Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

Comments (0)