Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Wednesday, November 23, 2016


College & Pro Best Bewt Upsets Nov 24-27


MINNY over Detroit by 7

A feast of football kicks off Thanksgiving Day in the Motor City where the Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings in a battle for fi rst place in the NFC North at Ford Field. The Lions have long been a staple on Turkey Day where they play their 77th game on this celebratory day, standing 36-38-2 SU in previous games, but 3-0 SUATS the last three years. The Jungle Kings are also 9-3 SUATS in this series following consecutive wins, including 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS at home. Today, though, the revitalized Vikings enter 4-1 SUATS on Thanksgiving Thursday with a sparkling 11-0 ATS record following home games versus opponents off a home game. They have also held four foes to season-low yards this season. Detroit’s 1-6 mark ‘In The Stats’ in its last seven games seals the deal as we have ourselves a live division dog to sink our teeth into on this festive holiday. Pass the gravy and grab the points. And check out THE CLINCHER: QB Sam Bradford owns a 10-4 ATS career mark as a dog in division games, including 8-1 ATS the last nine, and 5-0 ATS against foes off back-to-back wins.



VANDY over Tennessee by 6


Wondering if the Volunteers can get up for this one after Florida stole the SEC East title right from under their noses? Not this schizophrenic bunch. Like James Caan trapped in a bed by Kathy Bates in ‘Misery’, it’s been downright torture trying to keep up with Tennessee this season. The Vols’ don’t get much support in today’s battle for the state championship, posting a poor 8-17 ATS record as favorites of 5 or more points against foes off a SUATS win. They also find themselves playing a rivalry dog with double revenge in this series. With Vanderbilt making one last-ditch effort to bag win No. 6 tonight in Nashville, we like the looks of the Commodores’ 9-3 ATS record as home dogs with revenge. And with Thanksgiving just days away, our SMART BOX is all over the 5-win Commies like whipped cream on pumpkin pie. Simply put, we’re going hard with the guys who still have something to play for against one that’s not sure what day it is. THE CLINCHER: Vanderbilt is 13-5 ATS as a dog of more than 6 points under head coach Derek Mason, including 5-0 ATS this season.


Toledo over W MICHIGAN by 1


If College GameDay were in Kalamazoo this week instead of last Saturday, we would advise Coach Corso to don the Toledo headwear. Of course, last week’s pick was a no-brainer as the Broncos hosted hapless Buffalo, but this Friday could be a different story as the battle for the MAC West crown comes with a noose big enough to fi t Brian Windhorst’s neck. As it is, the underdog Rockets – who are already playing with revenge from a season-finale home loss last year – are a ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ SMART BOX play as they are 10-1 ‘ITS’ this season. They’re also 5-0 ATS after tangling with Ball State and 4-1 ATS in LRGs. In addition, Toledo is 17-3 SU in this matchup when they own a .400 or greater record while the series dog is a Pit bull-like 9-1 ATS. Meanwhile, the undefeated Broncos can taste a New Year’s Six Bowl but must first deal with a 0-6 ATS log after battling Buffalo, a 0-4 ATS record in LHGs and a 3-7 ATS mark in the second of back-to-back homers. THE CLINCHER: the Rockets are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight weekday road games.


Arizona over Atlanta by 8


Much like grains of sand in an hourglass, there is only so much time for disappointing quality teams to get their act together before it’s too late. Meet the Arizona Cardinals, the choice of many pundits to win the NFC West this season. Currently 3 games back of frontrunning Seattle, the Red Birds will most likely secure a spot in the playoffs – if they’re fortunate – via the Wild Card. To do so, a win today is mandatory. And behind the top-ranked defense in the league, we like their chances. For openers, the underdog is 21-5 ATS in Falcons games under Dan Quinn. In addition, Atlanta is 1-6 ATS at home with rest in non-division games. With ‘Zona sporting nearly 100 yards the better defense in this bout, we turn to THE CLINCHER: Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians is 22-6 SU and 20-8 ATS in non-division regular season games following a non-division game, including 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS from Game 11 out.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, November 17, 2016


Marc Lawrence College & Pro Best Bet Upsets Nov 18-19


NFL

BALTIMORE over Dallas by 8

Imagine what must be going through Tony Romo’s mind these days. As America’s highest paid cheerleader, Romo can only stand by and wish his team well as the dynamic rookie duo of QB Dak Prescott and RB Ezekiel Elliott are at the forefront of the biggest turnaround in the NFL this season. So where does America’s team go from here after an exhilarating 8-0 SUATS march through the rest of the league this season? The good news is the Boys are 5-0 SUATS their last five games against NFC North opposition. The bad news is they are 0-4 ATS as home favorites against the AFC North. And that fits like a glove next to Dallas head coach Jason Garrett’s 3-13 ATS mark as a home favorite versus opponents off a win. It’s never hard backing the top defense in the league as a touchdown dog. Especially one that is 11-2 SU and 8-4-1 ATS in its last 13 games following Cleveland, and also 12-3 ATS as a road dog after facing the Browns. And for good measure, we toss in THE CLINCHER: NFL home favorites are 13-32 ATS after facing Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh Steelers.

College


VANDERBILT over Ole Miss by 1

The Rebels have to be excited at the prospects of true freshman QB Shea Patterson, who stepped in nicely for Chad Kelly last week and directed Ole Miss to an upset win at Texas A&M. The problem today, though, is there is now game film on him and frosh QBs making their second start off a winning debut tend to crash more often than the original Obamacare website. The defensive-minded Commies are one of 18 teams on this week’s card featuring 4-win teams in need of two more wins to achieve bowl eligibility and an inexperienced QB is just what the doctor ordered in Nashville. Add to that a 15-4 ATS mark for Vandy as dogs of more than 5 points with revenge, including 8-1 ATS the last nine, and you’ll see why there is a great shot at a Commodores upset. But best of all, here is THE CLINCHER: The Rebels are 1-11 against the spread as road favorites coming off a win.



MINNESOTA over Northwestern by 7

Laugh if you want but this Minnesota team could very well be undefeated right now. Only a 3-point loss to Penn State, a 7-point loss to Iowa and a 7-point loss to Nebraska is all that’s kept the Gophers from being truly Golden in 2016. But while 7-3 Minnesota has already punched its postseason ticket, Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats still need a win here or against Illinois to don their bowling shoes. And frankly, since both of these teams are tied in the Big Ten West with 4-3 marks in conference play, we’re trying to figure out just why Northwestern opened as the favorite in this afternoon’s matchup in Minneapolis. While we puzzle on that, our reliable database has sprung to life and informed us of the Gophers’ solid 7-3 ATS run in their previous ten LHG’s. Plus, there’s a small matter of revenge for last season’s humiliating 27-0 whitewash loss in Evanston, Minnesota’s worst loss of 2015 and the team’s first shutout since losing to Michigan in 2011. Regardless of where the line settles before Saturday’s kickoff, we look for the Gophers to git‘er done.

NFL


Jacksonville over DETROIT by 3


Look at what we have here. The FIRST PLACE 5-4 Detroit Lions host the last place 2-7 Jacksonville Jaguars... and we’re calling for the upset. Let’s set the record straight. No team in the last 13 years has made it to the Super Bowl after posting fewer than six wins through their fi rst nine games. The last team to do it? The 2002 Oakland Raiders, who were also 5-4. In addition, only one team in the NFC owns more than six wins through the first nine games this season – the Dallas Cowboys. So, yes, the race to the playoffs in the NFC is wide open. The bigger game for Detroit is on deck with Minnesota, the team they are currently tied with in the division and the team they beat in overtime before their bye week two weeks ago. The Lions are 6-20 SU and 8-18 ATS before facing the Vikings. They are also 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS at home against AFC South opponents. Granted, the favorite is 5-0 ATS in this series, and the Jaguars are 0-9 ATS as non-conference underdogs of more than 3 points. But this is Detroit, caught smack in the middle of a Minnesota sandwich, laying a touchdown to a team with 38 YPG the better defense. That’s a no-no in our books.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, November 10, 2016


Marc Lawrence Best Bet Upsets, Nov. 11-13


Cincinnati over CENTRAL FLORIDA by 1

Whereas those aforementioned 4-5 favorites don’t fare well in Game Ten of the season, 4-5 dogs of 3 or more points, off those same two losses-exact, do just fi ne (7-2-1 ATS) if they also went bowling the previous campaign. In order to be a player this postseason, the Bearcats obviously need this one like Trump needs Florida and Ohio. And it looks like their head coach is following in the footsteps of the Donald. Following last Saturday’s ugly 20-3 home loss to BYU, Tommy Tuberville got into it with a heckler who told him to stop stealing money from the university by responding “go to hell, get a job” (if elected, Trump promises there will be jobs down there). Tubs is now taking heat and we’ll look for him to take out his frustrations on a UCF team that is leaking more oil than the Exxon Valdez (0-5 ‘ITS last fi ve). We realize that the 5-4 Knights are still one win shy of bowl eligibility and becoming one of the feel-good stories of the year (they were 0-12 last season), but we just don’t trust them as double-digit chalk.



MINNESOTA over Nebraska by 7

Reality has set in for Nebraska. A promising 7-0 start quickly faded after a double dose of reality: an OT loss at Wisconsin and a 62-3 humiliation at Ohio Stadium, where the Huskers saw starting QB Tommy Armstrong carted away to a Columbus hospital. While Armstrong did return to the sidelines before game’s end, he is nonetheless following ‘concussion protocol’ this week and may not start (or even play) this evening. No matter; we’ll go with the Golden Gophers here, even if Minnesota RB Rodney Smith can’t answer the bell. While the Cornhuskers might still be reeling from that demoralizing beatdown by Ohio State, the Gophers should be completely focused. Tied at 4-2 atop the Big Ten West division with Wisconsin and Nebraska, Minnesota actually controls its conference destiny whereas Nebbish does not. The Gophers have somehow managed to stay under the radar while putting together a 7-2 record (lost to Penn State by 3 points and Iowa by 7), but they’re a bonafi de ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ SMART BOX dog here with their super 8-1 ITS mark this season. Minny also claims most of the ATS edges in this matchup, going 5-0 ATS away when playing with conference revenge and 8-2 ATS as a Big Ten dog of 10 or less points. By comparison, Nebraska is a weak 1-5 ATS versus conference revenge and just 1-4 ATS in the fi rst of consecutive Big Ten home games. And while revenge from a 48-25 loss as small home chalk last year should serve the Gophers well today, the fi nal nail in the Huskers’ coffi n comes courtesy of THE CLINCHER: Double-Bubble Burst teams from Game Ten out on the season, off their initial two losses of the season, are 0-7-1 ATS since 1980 as home favorites when facing an opponent with a winning record.

NFL


JACKSONVILLE over Houston by 10

Somehow, despite being outscored and out-yarded on the season, the Texans enter this contest with 5 wins, and a game-and-a-half lead in the AFC South... to which we say poppycock. Yes, we realize Houston is 5-0 SUATS away against losing division opponents, and the favorite is 27-11-2 ATS in games under Bill O’Brien. But there comes a time when numbers like those begin to dissolve and they almost always occur in circumstances like those outlined above. The Jaguars’ season has not been rewarding, for sure. Expected to contend for division honors behind a plethora of young talent, Jacksonville has disappointed. A buy sign, though, came last week when they limited the Chiefs to a season-low 231 yards in a 5-point loss that was directly attributable to a 4-0 defi cit in turnovers. (FYI: the Jags are on the short end of a 10-0 TO margin in the four games since their bye). Meanwhile, the Texans are 1-4 ATS in division games following a bye week, while Jacksonville is 7-2 SUATS following the Kansas City Chiefs, including 4-0 SUATS at home. We close it with THE CLINCHER: .250 or greater NFL home dogs off a pair of away games, with a pair of away games on deck, are 8-4 SU and 11-1 ATS since 1980 following a loss of more than 3 points when facing a winning foe off a win.

LA RAMS over NY Jets by 8

This initially looks like an ugly dog that’s hard to wrap our hands around. But thanks to our sister publication, the MIDWEEK ALERT, we can feel the love and warmth pouring through. For openers, the Rams have lost their last four games but won the overall stats in each game. A 9-1 defi cit in turnover margin in those games was the main culprit. The turnover-prone Jets fi gure to help cure that ill. New York is 0-5 ATS following a loss when facing NFC South opponents, and 5-20 SUATS following a loss to the Miami Dolphins. On the other side of the coin, the Rams are 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in this series, including 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in games in which the Jets own a win percentage of .333 or greater. Furthermore, Rams head coach Jeff Fisher thrives in roles like this as he famously supplies THE CLINCHER: Fisher is 22- 9-2 ATS as a road dog against losing opposition, including 8-1 SUATS when taking less than a field goal from a sub .444 foe.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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