Friday, September 28, 2012

Marc Lawrence College and Pro Plays Sept. 29-30

College Upsets


Ohio St over MICHIGAN ST by 10

We can’t blame you if you’re sick of seeing the Buckeyes bolded and underlined but they do arrive in East Lansing with some ‘INCREDIBLE’numbers. Beside the 84% proposition outlined on page three, they have treated Spartan Stadium like their own private watering hole since 1992, posting a 6-1 SU and ATS mark. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last four as conference road favorites or dogs of 3 or less points and that ties in nicely to the Spartans’ 0-6 ATS log at home off a spread loss of more than 6 points when the number is also between the threes (-3 to +3). Sparty’s 8-1 ATS mark versus undefeated conference opposition from Game Five out is certainly a concern but the Buckeyes’ home for the holidays scenario (no Big Ten title or Bowl game) means a big effort in every conference contest this season. Even Urban Meyer, who has been damaging his non-conference pointspread reputation of late, chips in with a 10-1 ATS mark as a pick or dog versus a foe off an ATS loss by more than 3 points. You may be upset if you play the moneyburning Buckeyes, but, then again, we feel you’ll be upset if you don’t.



KENT STATE over Ball State by 6


A convincing win at Buffalo last week fi nds the Flashes 6-2 SU and 5-2

ATS over their last eight games dating back to last season. While that’s

not exactly smokin’ in the boys’ room for most, it is a big deal for a Kent

State squad that hasn’t registered a winning season since 2001. It will get

tougher, today, though as the surprising Cardinals arrive with a 3-1 SU

and 4-0 ATS record, including a pair of non-conference wins over Indiana

and South Florida. Well, if you’re sitting in a Kent classroom thinking

what we just told you was a drag, then you’ll be happy to know that

only looking at the fi nal results ain’t our bag. Nope, not to bust balls, but

we’re really not all that impressed with the Cardinals as they have been

outgained in each of their last three games while allowing season high

– or 2nd high – yards in all four contests. We may not be teachers so we

won’t fi ll you up with all the rules but that’s a sign that Ball State won’t

be smoking in this school… as well as a sure indicator of a team that’s

about to go bust. Lay the small spot as the series host improves to 4-0 SU

and 3-0-1 ATS since 2006.





NC State over Miami FLA by 10

They may be sitting atop the ACC Coastal division but it’s tough to

get a read on this season’s Hurricane squad. Case in point: last week

at Georgia Tech. Ready? Miami (+14) jumped out to a 19-0 lead, gave

up 36 unanswered points to the Jackets, then went on a 17-0 run to

send the game into overtime – before winning on a 25-yard TD run

by Mike James. That’s pacemaker stuff, folks, as our database warns:

home chalk off an OT win in which they scored over 30 points are

6-14-1 ATS against a foe off a win of 20 or more points the last ten

years. The Wolfpack bring the better numbers on both sides of the

ball, offensively and defensively, into this contest and are a succulent

9-0 ATS as dogs against an opponent off a SU dog win. But what really

gets us salivating is the fact that Miami’s rush defense has been ripped

for 287 yards by Ga Tech (4.9 YPC), 233 yards by Bethune-Cookman (4.4

YPC) and 288 yards by Kansas State (4.8 YPC). Does it get better? Try

State head coach O’Brien’s 19-4 ATS record versus a foe off a SU dog

win – 19-1 ATS the last 20! – including 14-1 ATS in conference games.

The Canes are just 7-12 ATS of late as chalk in the tropics and own a sad

1-5 ATS log as conference favorites off a SU dog win. The Wolfpack’s

282 rushing yards against The Citadel were the most for N.C. State in a

game in seven years, not a good sign for the ‘U’. As much as we like Al

Golden, his young and fragile squad is primed for a letdown of major

proportions here. The Pack makes a little conference noise today.



Pro Upsets



Kansas City over San Diego by 11

Another NFL home dog comes front and center – and this one has

some teeth. The Chiefs return to the teepee at Arrowhead off last

week’s shocker over the Saints in N’Awlins, sporting a spiffy 17-

4-1 ATS home dog log during the fi rst four games of the season,

including 9-0-1 ATS in division games and 5-0 ATS when playing off

a win. On the other side of the coin, the Chargers folded like a deck

of cards last week in a lethargic effort at home against the Falcons.

San Diego has been outgained in two of their three contests this

season and is 0-5 ATS away with revenge during the fi rst four games

of the campaign. Meanwhile, our brainiac database chimes in with

this beauty: 1-2 NFL dogs in Game Four, off a SU underdog win,

are 24-8-2 ATS since 1980, including 12-2-1 ATS at home. With the

Featherheads’ well documented prowess as the best home puppy

in the loop – and having won the stats in all three games to date

– look for the NFL home dog brigade to continue here today. You

know what to do.


NY Giants over Philly by11

Life in Philly was super-fi ne following the Eagles’ 4-0 performance in

the preseason this year. Talk of a new dream season was re-energized

and a 2-0 start to the 2012 journey fi t like Charles Barkley in a new

Armani suit. A visit last Sunday to Arizona saw the threads begin to

unravel when Michael Vick and Philadelphia choked like a mad dog

in a 21-point loss that was worse than it appeared. As a result, the

Green Birds are now -6 in turnovers and, despite outgaining every

opponent, they’ve been relegated to here-we-go-again status. It

certainly doesn’t help their chances knowing they are 1-8 SU and

0-9 ATS as division hosts when coming off a non-division road game.

Nor does the fact that defending Super Bowl champions are 6-1 ATS

as dogs when facing an opponent that was upset as a favorite in its

last game. With our AWESOME ANGLE lined up squarely against the

Eagles, and the Giants having enjoyed an extra three days of prep

time, look for the visiting team in this series to improve to 10-3 SU

and ATS here tonight. The Big Apple takes another bite out of this

Philly cheesesteak.



St. Louis over Seattle by 10

Thanks to the replacement refs, Russell Wilson became the fi rst

quarterback in NFL history to toss a game winning interception in

Monday night’s out-of-the-ordinary, Twilight Zone fi nish against the

Packers. Now, perhaps after that amazing gaffe, the NFL will come to

its senses and employ REAL REFS in real games. (It’s amazing how a

multi-billion dollar industry insists on employing part-time janitors to

clean up their owners’ mess). Commentary aside, Wilson will also be

looking to become the fi rst of the fi ve rookie starting signal callers

in the NFL this season to not only cover the spread as a favorite –

but to actually win a game when favored, as these newbies are 0-4

SU and ATS collectively in games when laying points to begin their

professional careers. Seattle’s anemic, dead-last ranked offense,

certainly doesn’t support the linemaker’s choice of favoritism in this

contest. Nor does the Seahawks’ 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS mark in Game

Fours of the season. Granted, Seattle’s been best in this series (9-1 ATS

the last ten) but the Rams are coming around as home dogs (3-0-1

ATS the last four) and until proven otherwise, Jeff Fisher is still king

of the league when taking points. Rams too tough today.

campaign. Meanwhile, our brainiac database chimes in with

this beauty: 1-2 NFL dogs in Game Four, off a SU underdog win,

are 24-8-2 ATS since 1980, including 12-2-1 ATS at home. With the

Featherheads’ well documented prowess as the best home puppy

in the loop – and having won the stats in all three games to date

– look for the NFL home dog brigade to continue here today. You

know what to do.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Friday, September 21, 2012

College & Pro Upsets Sept. 21-24

COLLEGE UPSETS


Michigan over NOTRE DAME by 4

Last Saturday while viewing the Notre Dame-Michigan State game, we were struck by the incredible resemblance between Irish head coach Brian Kelly and Frank Sutton, the late actor who portrayed Sgt.Vince Carter on the ‘Gomer Pyle-USMC’ show. In fact, watching Kelly berate one of his players while his nostrils fl ared and eyes bugged out in exasperation, we were transported back to a time when Sgt.Carter would scream, “Pyle, you knucklehead! My old grandmother could do better than that!” However, if our powerful database could talk out loud, it might make the same observation regarding Notre Dame’s recent pointspread success in tonight’s role. While they HAVE held all three foes to season-low yards this year, the Dame is 0-6 ATS as a favorite after a SUATS win over a Big Ten foe when facing an opponent off a win of of 24 or more points. Wait, it gets worse. The Irish are 0-3 ATS after Sparty, 3-10 ATS as home chalk of 6 or more points, and 2-6 ATS as home favorites with revenge versus a Big Ten opponent. The hosts are also a deathly 0-6 ATS in their last six as chalk in games after knocking off an undefeated adversary – plus we know from experience that if things start to go south for the Irish, Kelly will aunch into his red-faced, exploding head routine. We say color the Wolverines dangerous here as our INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK on page 3 comes to their aid – along with a vicious 8-1 ATS effort as non-conference dogs of less than 13 points. The latest chapter in a series ruled by underdogs and upsets goes to… Michigan.



Syracuse over MINNESOTA by 6

Unlike Missouri or South Carolina, the Minnesota program is not suffi ciently evolved to survive the absence of a starting quarterback. However, that’s the situation in Minneapolis as the Gophers have lost star QB Marquies Gray for a few weeks with a high ankle sprain suffered in last Saturday’s win over Western Michigan. Jerry Kill’s squad will face a hungry Syracuse outfit playing better than its 1-2 record suggests: the Orange dropped a 1-point heartbreaker to Northwestern in Game One (Cats scored with 44 seconds remaining), then played the tits off USC before fading late in a 42-29 defeat. The ‘Cuse has a legitimate revenge factor here, too, losing to the Gophers in head coach Doug Marrone’s debut with the Orange back in 2009 (isn’t it a dish best served cold?). A trip to the ATS archives tells us today’s role favors the visitors, too, as Syracuse is 8-4 ATS off its first win of the season while the Gophers are an awful 0-3 SU before Big Ten openers the last three years (lost to North Dakota State in 2011). With zero shades of Gray in the huddle, no Minnesota for us!


PRO UPSETS


MINNESOTA over San Francisco by 3

Burned twice by the Niners this season, we take off after them once again this week in a game fully loaded with value and handicap. For openers, Frisco enters 2-0 SU and ATS after knocking off a pair of playoff opponents and looking practically invincible. The Vikings are 0-2 ATS on the season, splitting a pair of 3-point decisions on thescoreboard, despite having outgained both opponents. Minnesota head coach Leslie Frazier is 3-0-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss while the Vikes have cashed in 7 of the last 8 as host in this series. Minny’s mighty 15-3 ATS home dog log of more than 3 points against greater than .700 foes finds the Niners panning for fool’s gold. Our AWESOME ANGLE puts the wraps on this puppy.


CIncinnati over WASHINGTON by 10

It’s Superman III versus Supersoph when Robert Griffi n opposes Andy Dalton in the nation’s capitol today. Griffi n found life as a favorite in this league a bit hard to swallow – and his team’s defense Lacking – when the Skins fell, 31-28, in St. Louis last week while the Bengals outlasted the Browns in a 34-27 victory in the Queen City. And speaking of favorites, the Hogs dress up in the same role today sporting an 0-7-1 ATS record as home chalk in non-conference games. On the fl ip side, the Bengals are 7-1 ATS as road dogs off a win in the first four games of the season. The cement pours from our powerful database (the same angle that applied in the Cowboys game) noting that 1-1 favorites in home openers in Game Three of the season are a just 6-27-1 ATS if they won 12 or fewer game the previous season, including a mind-boggling 2-19-1 ATS when taking on a foe that won 9 or less games last year. With Washington’s defense missing two key starters, like a speeding bullet, we’re off to the betting window.



DENVER over Houston by 7

Could it be? Two Hall of Fame quarterbacks, both playing as dogs off losses, on the same weekend. Watch the line movement on this contest (pick at press time). Should the betting public become fully enamored with the Texans and drive Houston to the favorite, both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady will fi t the bill in our opening statement. If enough bad Broncos stats start surfacing (i.e. - 0-5 ATS after Monday nights, 0-4 SUand ATS last four game before the Raiders) and enough good Houston numbers get bandied about (i.e. - 7-0 ATS after the Jaguars), it could happen. Instead, we’ll sink our teeth into some pretty Peyton numbers, such as: 11-2 ATS as a dog of less than 6 points versus a non-division foe off a SU and ATS win; 12-3 SU and ATS the last 15 home versus a foe off back-to-back SU and ATS wins. The Houston defense has really ratcheted up in 2012 (tops in the league, allowing 196 YPG) but it’s been against offenses the likes of Jacksonville and Miami. We like the Hall of Famer’s bounce-back ability today.




Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Thursday, September 13, 2012

Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets 9/13-9/17

COLLEGE UPSET

MISSISSIPPI over Texas by 1

Shame on us for counting on a ‘green’ Miami team to exact revenge last week and deliver an outright upset of Kansas State. Especially when you consider that our 4* Top Late-Phone release of UCLA was a home dog that garnered Incredible Stat of the Week honors. Yes, hindsight is 20-20 but we won’t make that mistake again. Thus, we’ll grab a home dog this week where the double-digits look like pure gravy. It appears as if the hiring of Hugh Freeze is already paying dividends in Oxford as the Rebels are 2-0 for only the second time in 10 seasons, outstatting both foes by a combined 1,103 yards to 658. And though we can’t expect them to put up 550 yards today, we do know that they won’t be intimated by Texas as the Rebs’ last two bowl wins have come against Big 12 opposition (Texas Tech in 2008 and Oklahoma State in 2009). In fact, it may be UT that tries to tiptoe through this venue as they have not fared well against the SEC, posting an overall 3-8 ATS mark, including 0-3 ATS on the road and 0-5 ATS when the SEC enters off a SU win. Even ‘ol Macky Brown is a (sukey) tawdry 1-6 SU and ATS in his career versus .700 or greater SEC opposition. And when you toss in the SEC’s 16-12 ATS mark when taking points against the Big 12 (including 4-1 ATS as home dogs) along with UT’s 2-7 ATS mark as non-conference road chalk of 13 or less points and 2-5 ATS log before dealing with Oklahoma State, you can why the points become a must. So in the only meeting between the SEC and Big 12 this regular season, we say take ‘em, not hook ‘em. And don’t forget about that juicy +300 on the money line either!







PRO UPSETS

Kansas City over Buffalo by 10

Both teams came up empty on opening week, but it was the Bills that provided arguably the biggest disappointment. After an offseason of major upgrades to its defense – thus being billed as the team to watch in 2012 – Buffalo allowed the listless New York Jets their highest output in 66 games in a 48-28 wipeout loss. Now allowing more than 34 PPG over the last nine games, the Bills today take on a team they whacked, 41-7, in last year’s season opener at Kansas City. That was before Romeo Crennel stepped in to help solidify a KC squad in disarray. Crennel takes the fi eld knowing he is 7-1 ATS in his NFL career against non-division opponents off a double-digit loss. In addition, the Chiefs bring a 5-0 ATS record into the contest as nondivision dogs when playing off a double-digit defeat. The clincher: Game Two road non-division dogs are 20-5 ATS when playing with revenge in a matchup of two winless teams. With the Bills still bleeding, it’s the Chiefs in a payback.




SEATTLE over Dallas by 3

Talk about a 180-degree role change, this is it. The Cowboys surprised most of the football world (not us) with its opening week upset win against the Giants while the Seahawks disappointed many (not us) when they failed an opening week road favorites at Arizona. The shoes are on the other feet today with both teams changing roles. It’s never been a good situation for Dallas, who is 6-19 SU and 7-18 ATS away in games off a SU underdog win since 1980. Seattle, on the other hand, relishes this role, going 7-5 SU and 10-2 ATS as a home dog over the same span when playing off a SU favorite loss. Toss in the Boys’ lethargic 6-15 ATS mark in games after a SU and ATSwin over the Giants and just like that Russell Wilson realizes the benefi ts of taking points, rather than laying them, in the NFL.



ST. LOUIS over Washington

Here we go again, another road favorite fresh off an upset underdog opening week win, only this time it’s a freshman quarterback changing clothes with Robert Griffi n III donning the cape of favorite for the first time in his pro career. Granted, RG3’s exploits were impressive in last week’s takedown of the Saints in New Orleans but, like his rookie cohort Russell Wilson, he now tries on life as a road favorite in the league and to that we say “good luck.” Aside from the Skins’ problems as favorites of 3 or more points against NFC foes (1-6-1 ATS last eight), they have struggled of late in this series (2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS). As we cited earlier on these pages, Rams boss Jeff Fisher is the NFL kingfi sh when it comes to taking points – now 55-72 SU and 76-50-1 ATS. Look for a big effort in Fisher’s home debut as Griffin shows why he is not yet ready to assume Superman’s shawl.



Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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