Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Thursday, December 22, 2016

Marc Lawrence Best Bowl and NFL Upsets Dec. 23-26

ARMED FORCES BOWL Amon G. Carter Stadium • Fort Worth, TX

Navy over Louisiana Tech by 6

With the Bulldogs and Midshipmen each arriving on 2-game losing skids, we wouldn’t be surprised to see Janet Jackson singing “What Have You Done For Me Lately” prior to kickoff. In fact, we were all set to take a pass today in Fort Worth as both the Techsters and Middies fall into the same scenario that saw teams go 0-8 SUATS last bowl season – that being squads who lost their conference championship game. That was until the invaders from Ruston went to favorites in this Armed Forces Bowl. That’s just not right! More importantly, it now has Skippy (Holtz) laying points and Playbook vets know he is a lousy favorite as opposed to a terrific dog. Yes, the Midshipmen have put more guys under center than Chippendales but if they get their QB situation settled in time, we’ll look for Ken Niumatalolo’s club to reel off its fourth straight bowl win and cover. It also doesn’t hurt that Military bowlers are 4-0 ATS off a SU favorite loss while CUSA bowlers are 1-4 ATS off back-to-back losses. And remember, this Navy team was 9-2 before their recent slide, knocked off a Top 10 team this year for the first time since 1984 and punted ONE time during the entire month of November. And while we’re at it, we may as well hear from THE CLINCHER: Military teams are 29-13 ATS as bowlers, including 18-5 ATS if they average 300 or more rushing yards per game.

Colorado State over Idaho by 3

With each of these teams riding a 7-0 ATS win skein, the Rams and the Vandals hit the Potato Bowl loaded with carbs. The difference is the Fort Collins crew arrives off a 63-31 thrashing of San Diego State and that brings into play this little gem: teams who score 60 or more points in their previous game are a famine-like 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in bowl play since 2011. We realize that the Rams won’t hurt themselves (only 6 turnovers in their last 11 games) but we’re not comfortable laying double-digits with a team that is 8-16 ATS as road chalk of 7 or more points and 2-5 SUATS as bowlers since 2002, including 0-4 ATS versus a foe off a SU win. And remember, the Vandals are playing with house money as this was supposed to be their swan song in the FBS after the Sun Belt announced it wouldn’t renew its membership following this season. However, they got a one-year reprieve from the NCAA (Idaho will be returning to the FCS level in 2018) but still played every contest like they were on death row, winning more games this year (8) than they did in each of the four previous seasons combined (4). And if you can get your hands on that juicy money line (+400), we should also point out that since 2000 there have been a total of 27 double-digit underdogs that have won bowl games in SU fashion – with 2011 and 2015 being the only two seasons during that span when one of these big dogs didn’t bite. We see this as being a great opportunity for the in-state Vandals to add that to that number, especially after hearing from THE CLINCHER: Idaho is 5-0-1 ATS off a conference game when facing a foe off a SUATS win under head coach Paul Petrino

New Orleans over Tampa by 14

If ever a case were to made for never discarding a future Hall of Fame quarterback from your play list it was last week when New Orleans QB Drew Brees kept the Saints’ faint playoff hopes alive with a 48- 41 win at Arizona when he passed for 389 yards and 4 TDs. Yes, we understand the Saints are 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS in final home games of the season the last eleven years but in none of them were they fighting to stay alive in a playoff race as they were either ‘in’ or eliminated in the postseason chase in those games. We realize they are clinging to an oxygen mask at the moment, but the bottom line is Brees is alive and breathing. Tampa checks into Bourbon Street sporting a lousy 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS mark in its last seven games on Saturdays, while just 1-5 SUATS in this series when New Orleans is out looking to avenge a loss from the most recent meeting (the Bucs beat the Saints, 16-11, two weeks ago). And because the swashbucklers have covered the spread in each of their six straight games, the price on this affair is just what bargain hunters are looking for this time of the year. Finally, just in case you need more, here is THE CLINCHER: Brees is 22-12-2 ATS with division revenge in his NFL career, including 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS at home after his team surrendered more than 31 points in its previous game.

Detroit over Dallas by 4

The Cowboys are making their FIFTH straight primetime appearance and since the first four weren’t prosperous from an ATS standpoint (3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS), we’re not going to try to fi x what looks like is starting to break down (the ‘Boys are 1-3 ‘ITS’ over that span). Not when we’re backing a Detroit team that is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday affairs, 4-0 ‘ITS’ in its last four games and looking to fend off the Packers for the NFC North title while holding onto a Wildcard spot if necessary. And why should we? The carefree Cowboys are 2-11 ATS at home off a previous home game, including 1-7 ATS following a win, and 3-8 SUATS in LHGs the past 11 years. With the Lions in control of their playoff destiny, that makes these ‘primetime points’ a bonus, especially after hearing from THE CLINCHER: The Cowboys are 11-25 ATS as home favorites under HC Jason Garrett, including 1-12 ATS off an ATS loss.

Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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Wednesday, December 14, 2016

Best Bowl & NFL Upsets Dec. 16-18

AT Orlando, FL: Arkansas St over C Florida by 7

The Red Wolves hit the Sunshine State on a two-game bowl-losing skein, having been outscored 110-72 in the process. So why do we feel the wrong team is favored tonight in Orlando, especially with the nearby Knights only having to travel 16 miles to Camping World Stadium? For starters, UCF is 0-6 SU against fellow bowlers this season, losing the stat battle by an average of 93 YPG. And speaking of yardage, our MIDWEEK ALERT informs us that the Knights finished the year on a 0-8 ‘In The Stats’ run while the Wolves are 9-1 ‘ITS’ over their last 10 games. In addition, Arkansas State’s defense has improved by 45 YPG over last year’s edition, a ‘Cure’ needed to deliver a bowl win. We should probably also mention that the favorite has lost SU in four of the last six UCF bowl games (this is just one of hundreds of gems found in this year’s Playbook Bowl Stat Report which is available online this Wednesday). We could also point out, like Houston above, that AAC bowlers are 0-4 SUATS off a SUATS loss and that the Knights are 0-2-1 ATS of late against the Sun Belt.

NY JETS over Miami by 6

The 8-5 Dolphins were handed an early Christmas present Monday night when the Pats knocked off the Ravens, giving Miami some control of their playoff destiny (they’ll be, once again, rooting for their division mates this week in Denver). With Dean Martin crooning “Baby it’s cold outside” on the team airplane as the Fish prepare for their annual sojourn to the Big City, the question now becomes does Miami have ‘Moore’ than enough to hold onto their Wild Card spot should the Broncos falter as starting QB Ryan Tannehill will miss at least a couple of games with a sprained ACL and MCL. Another Playbook exclusive (read: our unique NFL QB Club) tells us that the Dolphins are in good hands as Matt Moore is 18-7 ATS as a starter in the NFL but a deeper search fi nds the majority of that success has come against .500 or better opposition (14-2 ATS) as Moore is just 4-5 SUATS when facing losing foes. Todd Bowles’ bunch definitely fi ts that bill but it won’t stop our database from ‘Jet’-setting tonight as New York is 4-1-1 ATS in their last fi ve Saturday showdowns while Miami is 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS away on Saturdays. Our MIDWEEK ALERT is also along for the ride as it notes the Dolphins are just 2-4 ‘In The Stats’ in their last six games – and that was with Tannehill behind center. Even in their 27- 23 victory as 4-point home favorites earlier this season, the Fish were outyarded by the Flyboys. That put the Jets at both 5-0-1 ATS in the series of late and 5-0-1 ATS as division underdogs versus a foe off an ATS win. All this and we still haven’t mentioned that Todd Bowles is the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. Hopefully you saved room for THE CLINCHER: Miami is 1-15 ATS following a win versus an opponent coming off a SU underdog win.

CINCINNATI over Pitt by 8

For a team that was certified dead in the water, the Bengals have certainly done an about face. Currently on a 3-3-1 SU run – with the three losses by 10 combined points – Cincinnati still finds itself (barely) mathematically alive in the Wild Card chase. For openers, they can take care of business on their end as each of their fi nal three foes on the slate are all positioned to make the postseason. Granted, Pittsburgh has roughed up Cincinnati in this series going 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS the last 21 meetings, including 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS away. And they are currently cooking on 4-0 SUATS and 7-game ATS win skeins. But the resourceful black cats are 19-7-1 ATS following the Cleveland Browns, including 14-3 ATS when seeking revenge (lost at Pittsburgh in Week Two in a game in which they outstatted the Steel Curtain). Not to mention QB Andy Dalton’s dandy 16-8 SU and 16-7-1 ATS career mark in games during the month of December, and his 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS career mark as an underdog seeking revenge following a double-digit win. And with it, another live division home dog – like the Giants last week – is ready to bark, according to THE CLINCHER: Cincinnati is 5-0 SUATS in its last fi ve regular season home underdog roles.

Carolina over Washington by 10

For all intents and purposes, it looks as if the Panthers are cooked. Last year’s Super Bowl loser, Carolina resides in the basement of the NFC South with only a prayer of recording a .500 season (should they win each of their fi nal three games) at its beck and call. This, however, is where these teams tend to be at their best. According to our allknowing database, Super Bowl losers are 30-17-1 ATS during the fi nal four games of the season when they are not favored, including 24- 10 ATS when squaring off against winning foes. (There’s nothing like good competition to bring the best out in a formerly good team). The Panthers are 3-0 SUATS the last three games in this series, and 4-0 ATS away all-time as underdogs in this series… not to mention 10-1 ATS off a SU underdog win during the fi nal four games of the season when facing non-division opponents. Washington checks in at 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven games following the Philadelphia Eagles, who they defeated by the skin of their teeth in an ‘inside-out’ stat win last Sunday. And lest we forget, there is THE CLINCHER: See this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on page 2.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, December 08, 2016

Marc Lawrence Best NFL Upsets, Dec.10-11

New Orleans over Tampa by 11

Don’t look now but the Bucs have reeled off four straight wins – all as underdogs – and suddenly fi nd themselves tied atop the NFC South with the Atlanta Falcons, two full games ahead of the visiting Saints. They’ll need their best effort of the season today, though, as New Orleans enjoys playing here, winning six of its last seven visits while bagging the cash in each of its last six roles as a road puppy. The tall task for Tampa is that there have been only 16 teams in the NFL to win four consecutive games as an underdog since 1980. Those teams went 5-11 SU and 5-10-1 in follow up contests. The really bad news is the Bucs are 1-7 ATS in 2nd to Last Home Games of the seasons the past eight years, not to mention QB Jameis Winston was 0-4 SUATS in his fi nal four games of the season last year. With New Orleans in survival mode, and QB Drew Brees 20-5 ATS as a dog against foes off consecutive wins in his NFL career, we’re once again all over the boys from Bourbon Street like ants on an uncovered beignet. With that, here’s THE CLINCHER: Over the last fi ve seasons, NFL teams with 1st-year head coaches (read: Tampa Bay’s Dirk Koetter) are 12-18 SU and 5-23-2 ATS as home favorites following a SU underdog win, including 1-12-1 ATS from Game Ten out.

Arizona Over Miami by 11

If Bud Collyer of ‘To Tell The Truth’ fame were still alive today, we could see him replacing Jimmy Cefalo as the Miami play-by-play man. Who else better to say, “Will the real Dolphins please stand up?” After reeling off six straight wins (following a 1-4 start), the Fish hit Baltimore disguised as the Browns and promptly dropped a 38-6 decision. They now face a 5-6-1 Arizona squad that has no margin for error if they hope to cash a postseason check for the third straight season. And though HC Bruce Arians has failed three times in this role already this year, he was 14-1 ATS as an underdog of 4 or less points in his NFL career entering this season. Well, we say the fourth time is a charm and for good reason: not only are the Dolphins 1-9 ATS at home versus losing NFC opposition, they are 5-12-2 ATS as home favorites versus the NFC West. Our MIDWEEK ALERT also points out that these ‘phony’ Fish are 1-4 ‘ITS’ over its last fi ve contests. ‘To Tell the Truth’ – this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on page 2 is also THE CLINCHER: Miami is 1-11-1 ATS at home versus losing opponents off a SU win.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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