Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Wednesday, October 05, 2016

Marc Lawrence’s Best College & Pro Upsets, Oct. 8 Weekend

Virginia Tech over NORTH CAROLINA by 10

The Tar Heels have quietly won 15 of their last 16 regular season games, including 9 straight in Chapel Hill. However, they are coming off that huge last-second win over Florida State and have the Canes on deck, so this becomes a very tricky sandwich for Carolina. On the fl ip side, the Hokies are beating FBS foes by an average of 148 YPG this season – while UNC is losing the stats by 10 YPG against the same ilk. Hence, with the better defense this season by 158 YPG in FBS contests, it’s not diffi cult taking points with an avenging dog (dropped a 30- 27 decision at home to the Heels last year). Remember, Hokies head coach Justin Fuente is 3-0 ATS as a dog of 10 or less points when his troops are off a win. He’s also 16-8 SUATS in games against foes who allow more than 28.5 PPG, including 5-0 ATS in those games as a dog of less than 20 points. But when push comes to shove in this contest, we’ll rely on THE CLINCHER: teams who beat Florida State are just 12-20 ATS at home the following game, including 1-9 ATS when facing a winning foe off a double-digit win.

TENNESSEE over Texas A&M by 6

Autumn is here, and much like the arrival of cooler climes, you can always count on watching a headliner SEC matchup every Saturday afternoon on CBS. This week it’s a Texas Triangle showdown pitting the No. 8 Aggies against the visiting No. 9 Volunteers. No doubt you’re still in shock if you saw the end of last week’s miracle Tennessee win over Georgia. How many times has a team LOST a game with just seconds remaining on the clock, then WON it right back on the fi nal play? Then again, we’re dealing with a Vols squad that coughed up a 4th-quarter lead in all four of their losses last season, but have now won four games this season after trailing by double-digits in the contest. WTF? While Kevin Sumlin’s Aggies are 3-0 in SEC play for the fi rst time since entering the conference, they own dreadful numbers in this matchup, going 1-5 ATS before a conference revenge road game and 2-5 ATS as SEC home chalk of less than 8 points. Another ominous note for the Aggies: they have surrendered season-high yardage in each of their last two contests. Tennessee two-steps into town with an identical 5-0 record, the Vols’ fi rst since 1998 – the last year they won a National Championship – and they’re 4-2-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in conference road games versus an undefeated foe when playing off a previous away game. Honestly, Big Orange has yet to put together a 60-minute effort this season and if they deliver here, UT won’t fold in the late going like Arkansas did versus the Aggies.


DETROIT over Philly by 10

Part of the hottest new quarterback duo to hit the league since the rookie tandem of Andrew Luck and Russell Wilson in 2012, Philadelphia’s Carson Wentz – along with Dallas’ Dak Prescott – represent the new wave of nouveau riche QB’s this season. With it though, comes a price – and one we’re not willing to pay. Granted, teams with new NFL coaches (re: Philadelphia with Doug Pederson) who win their fi rst three games of the season are 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS in Game Four. But Lions’ head coach Jim Caldwell is 5-1-1 ATS in his NFL career in games versus opponents from the NFC East division, including 4-0 ATS versus opponents owning a .400 or better percentage. Add to that Detroit’s sparkly 7-1 ATS record in non-division games when coming off a pair of division bouts. And Detroit is also 8-3 ATS in non-division home games following the Chicago Bears. Yes, we realize Wentz has been near perfect in his NFL debut this season, but it all comes down to THE CLINCHER: 3-0 SUATS NFL teams away in Game Four of the season are 1-11 SU and 2-10 ATS in nondivision games if they were a losing team the previous season.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, September 29, 2016

College & Pro Best Upsets, NFL Week 4


STANFORD over Washington by 10

It looks like the Pac-12 North will be decided on this last day in September as the 7th-ranked Cardinal travel to Seattle to take on No. 10 Washington. Both teams were exposed in victories last week as the Huskies needed overtime to top Arizona in the desert while Stanford’s all-everything, Christian McCaffrey (failed to fi nd the end zone for the fi rst time in 16 games), was gang-tackled in UCLA worse than the Old Spice Man in the Port of Savannah. The Cardinal still managed to rally late and that sets the stage for this tilt as: undefeated Game Four away teams off a SUATS win taking on a 4-0 SU foe are 7-1 ATS since 1980, including 4-0 ATS when they allow 12 or fewer PPG and 4-0 ATS when taking 3 or more points. Series history also sides with Stanford (7-1 SU last eight) as does a 8-1 ATS log in the second of back-to-back road games and 5-1 ATS weekday mark versus conference opponents. The bottom line is it’s impossible to ignore a dog with this type a pedigree, especially with the up-and-coming Huskies in unfamiliar territory and 1-6 ATS with conference revenge (fell 31-14 last season in Palo Alto). Now that’s more like it – back to a more customary two-team Friday night puppy parlay, topped off by THE CLINCHER: Cardinal HC David Shaw is 8-1 ATS as a dog with Stanford, including 5-0 ATS versus undefeated opposition.

TEXAS over Oklahoma State by 11

Huge matchup at Stillwater as a loss here would drop the Cowboys to 0-2 in Big 12 play while a Texas defeat would level the Horns’ record at .500 before their Red River Rivalry matchup with Oklahoma. So with both teams in ‘must-win’ mode, we turn to our all-seeing database for guidance – and it’s all good news for Texas and HC Charley Strong. The Longhorns are 5-0 ATS away with rest off a SU loss, 10-1 ATS as Big 12 road dogs of less than 9 points, and 16-2 SU and 13-4-1 ATS in Game Four, including 5-0 SUATS away. Those results fi t hand-in-glove with the series visitor’s current 7-0-1 ATS run and Oklahoma State’s 0-5 ATS home mark versus rested opponents. The Horns, who held UTEP and Cal to season-low yards, are also a ‘Four On The Floor’ SMART BOX play as outlined in last week’s issue, AND a ‘Freshen Up’ SMART BOX call this week! And while we can’t guarantee that we know a secret potion that will regrow the hair on Strong’s head.


Kansas City over PITTSBURGH by 3

The overwhelming consensus of NFL fans nationwide is the return of star RB Le’Veon Bell tonight – back from another failed drug test suspension – puts the Steelers right into the winner’s circle in this contest. We don’t agree. Not against a coach who makes his living on the road, and against teams that were upset in their previous game. That would be Kansas City head coach Andy Reid and his sterling 30-15 SU and 27-17-1 ATS record in games against opponents that lost SU as a favorite in their previous game. Couple that with Pittsburgh’s 2-9 ATS the last 11 games versus AFC West opponents. And the fact that the once famed Steel Curtain defense has recorded only 1 sack this season, the fewest in the league. We don’t see that changing against light-footed Alex Smith and the Chiefs tonight, either. And don’t forget – we know our all-knowing database certainly doesn’t – that Kansas City is 10-5 SUATS in its last 15 Sunday Night games, including 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS versus a foe coming off a loss. Pitt’s pitiful 3-9 SU and 1-10-1 ATS mark as a non-division favorite in Game Four of the season cements it for us. Chiefs ring the Sunday Night bell.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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Friday, September 23, 2016

Marc Lawrence Upset Best Bets, Week 3

PITTSBURGH over North Carolina by 7

In full support of the smokin’ hot SMART BOX, we’re off and running with the Panthers again this week. And our MIDWEEK ALERT agrees as well, noting Pitt’s powerful running game is averaging 240 RYPG, anchored by Heisman hopeful James Conner and his understudy Quadree Ollison (ACC Freshman of the Year with 1,121 rushing yards). In fact, these numbers fi t like a glove into a jelly-soft Tar Heels’ rush defense that allows 227 RYPG. The shocking stat from last week was the 640 yards given up by Pitt’s defense to a pissed-off Oklahoma State squad, but we can pretty much guarantee that a defensive mastermind like head coach Pat Narduzzi will not allow it to happen again. In fact, his troops are the only FBS team in the nation to have no regular games decided by more than 21 points the past two seasons – meaning they are in every game they play (average loss less than 7 PPG). On the fl ip side, the Heels put up 104 points against the likes of Illinois and James Madison this season, but were outstatted by 159 yards in a 9-point loss to Georgia. Also, consider that UNC is 0-3 SUATS in its last three lined games before facing Florida State. But when push comes to shove, here’s THE CLINCHER: The Panthers are 5-0 ATS as road dogs with triple revenge-exact and 4-0 ATS on the road with revenge under Narduzzi.

Arkansas over Texas A&M by 3

This battle of undefeated Top 25 teams will be played at Jerry’s World in Arlington and sees the 17th-ranked Hogs looking to avenge four straight losses in this series, as they stand 5-2-1 ATS with quadruple revengeexact. They do, however, hold an impressive 9-2 spread record in their last 11 matchups with the Aggies, including 4-1 ATS at neutral sites. The Razorback offense was expected to struggle after the graduation of QB Brandon Allen, but his baby brother has stepped in marvelously in the early going. Austin Allen has completed 67% of his passes for 655 yards and engineered a big OT win over TCU in Week 2, moving the Hogs into the rankings. The 10th-ranked Aggies have a huge OT win of their own under their belts after knocking off UCLA in the opener, and are now coming off a big revenge win at Auburn last week. However, with just a 5-9 ATS mark as favorites on neutral fi elds and a weak 2-10 ATS record versus revenge in the SEC, we’re up for some BBQ today. Woo Pig Sooie!


Chicago over Dallas by 3

Watching a suffering Bear is not a pretty sight. After a promising offseason in which Marc Lawrence recommended Chicago as a season-win total ‘Over’ play at the Westgate SuperContest seminar in Las Vegas, they have performed like more like cubs (not the 2016 MLB team) to start the 2016 season. Tonight they journey to Dallas with QB Jay Cutler nursing an aggravated thumb injury on his throwing hand, which means we’ll likely see Brian Hoyer behind center – and that suits us to a tee. Hoyer is 15-11 SU and 16-9-1 ATS as a starter in this league, including 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS in games in which his team is playing off a loss. In addition, Chicago head coach John Fox saw his 7 game personal win skein against rookie quarterbacks snapped in Monday night’s loss to the Eagles. On the fl ip side, the Cowboys will look to win back-to-back games without Tony Romo, a tall task considering they are 2-13 SU without him the past two seasons. Rookie QB Dak Prescott has been a pleasant surprise but it’s Jason Garrett that gets in the way tonight, bringing an 8-24 ATS record as a home favorite as a head coach in his NFL career into tonight’s fray, including 5-20 ATS the last 25 games, and 2-12 ATS when coming off a division game. This is the classic case of the distressed Bears being better off away from their den as they look to straighten things out under the Sunday Night lights. THE CLINCHER: Chicago is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in games coming off a Monday Night loss.

Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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