Friday, September 19, 2008
Playbook College Upsets for September 20
ARMY Plus over Akron
Army has been home to some very bad football lately. The Cadets have managed just 23 SU wins in the last ten years and are off to a typical Start in ’08, getting undressed at West Point by 1-AA New Hampshire on their way to an 0-2 start. That should be sufficient to scare everyone away from Army this week… everyone except us. Akron may have had enough zip to pummel sorry Syracuse in Week Two but coach J.D.Brookhart has NEVER covered as a road favorite (0-5 ATS) while leading the Rubber City boys. He’s also a weak 1-6 ATS when taking on a < .500 foe coming off consecutive defeats. Army coach Stan Brock was beyond frustrated after the 28-10 loss to New Hampshire, openly questioning the effort of his players and apologizing to fans. With a bye week to re-address fundamentals and team commitment, Army should also benefit from the numbers found in our DIRE STRAITS article on page 2. With Brock commanding his team’s full attention, look for the Cadets to improve to 4-1 ATS off back-to-back losses when skirmishing with the MAC.
Central Michigan Plus over PURDUE
We’ll learn a lot about Joe Tiller and his Purdue team here. After ripping through Oregon for 300 first quarter yards and a 20-3 lead, the Boilermaker offense inexplicably fired blanks the rest of the way against the Ducks – and before you could say ‘Donald’, Oregon had caught up and forced overtime, eventually winning 32-26. That devastating loss puts the Boilers smack in the middle of our classic ‘Home Favorite Letdown Off An Overtime Loss’ scenario (see last week’s I’M A LOSER article). Central Michigan may not get much attention but the Chippewas have averaged 9 wins per season over the last two campaigns and went bowling both years. They also owe Purdue for a pair of SU defeats in 2007, a 23-point embarrassment on this field in Game Three and a narrow 3-point loss in
the Motor City Bowl. In a battle of top-notch quarterbacks, we expect CMU’s Dan LeFevour to out-duel the Boilers’ Curtis Painter and walk way with a statement making win.
Last Week: 4-1 Season: 5-3
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Monday, September 15, 2008
Dire Straits
"Down in the tunnels, trying to make it play
He got the action, he got the motion... Yeah the boy can play
Dedication devotion...
There's just a song in all the trouble and the strife
You do the walk, you do the walk of life."
Like a racehorse, you can tell the makeup of a college football team by the size of its heart. And no, it needn't be 'Secretariat-like'. Just one that is alive and pumping blood. For without the presence of either, you can put a nail in them. In other words, they're as good as dead.
Because we're handicappers, and not heart surgeons, a good barometer in gauging a team's pulse is to identify how they respond in a game after having been run over by an opponent. Often times the worse the result, the better the gauge. That's because most teams who have been – or are being – embarrassed beyond imagination tend to fold like a lawn-sale accordion. It's the ones who refuse to have their 'last rites' read to them that is of primary interest to us.
Surprisingly, one of the quickest measures in responding to devastating defeats happens early in the season. Especially with teams who have opened the season on the heels of back-to-back double-digit losses. Suddenly, teams in Game Three of the campaign are now in dire straits, as this contest becomes Critical – with a capital C.
Last year, no less than four teams played in a 'lined' Game Three scenario off back-to-back double-digit defeats. Namely they were Eastern Michigan, Florida Atlantic, North Texas and Notre Dame. Collectively they combined to go 2-2 ATS. The two spread losers, North Texas and Notre Dame, proceeded to bottom out by season's end, finishing the season with 2-10 and 3-9 records respectively. The two covering teams managed to finish with a combined record of 12-13. Thus, the sudden importance in these Game Three tilts.
Upon further examination, we found that whenever our captious crew was seeking revenge in these critical Game Three matchups they responded with aplomb. Thus, entering this season, if we were to –
PLAY ON any college football team with revenge in Game Three off back-to-back double digit losses
we would own a resuscitating 58-31 ATS mark since 1980. To further enhance our chance of recovery, we can dramatically increase our critical numbers simply by pitting our revenging team against an opponent that lost its previous game. By re-qualifying these teams we are left with a palpable
25-10 ATS record. Bring us in off a game in which we scored less than 17 points and the blood pressure rises to a
19-5 ATS level. Two well-rested teams qualify on this week’s card, namely
Army and UTEP.
And if your heart can take it, a
16-1 ATS result occurs when our 19-5 ATS qualified Game Three revenger takes on a foe off a loss that won 7 or fewer games last season. Once again,
Army and UTEP look to be brought back to life this weekend.
There you have it, a season-saving formula designed to keep you, and your favorite team, in the game all season long. Enjoy the walk of life...
Make plans to join me this weekend for my Famous 5* College Football Game of the Month, documented 51-21 since 1990. It’s available on the MVP Line (
900.255.8050, 888.611.4111 or the PLAYBOOK.COM website) or it’s included FREE OF CHARGE with a $95 WEEKEND OF WINNERS on our Toll Free Late Phone Football Service when you call 1.800.321.7777 today!
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Playbook NFL Upset Specials for Week 2
Bears Plus Points
Last week’s two biggest upset makers collide in Carolinas. The Bears avenged their Super Bowl loss to the Colts with a shocking win at Indianapolis while the Panthers pounced on the Chargers in a stirring last-play-of-the-game win at San Diego. What to do for an encore? If you’re Carolina head coach John Fox the plan would be avoid the dreaded FAVORITE moniker as his team is 1-11 SU and 0-12 ATS in its franchise history when laying points against a .500 or better opponent in Games 1 thru 6. Bears’ boss Lovie Smith counters at 5-1 ATS as an NFL head coach when facing a foe off a SU underdog win, including 5-0 SU and ATS away Now, where else can you find info like that other than the PLAYBOOK? No deliberating here, It’s Da Bears.
Lions Plus Points
Shame on the oddsmakers. The Lions took another of their famous roaddumps when they lost in Atlanta as 3.5-point favorites last Sunday. Like Peter,Paul and Mary said, “When will they ever learn?” They sing a different tune at home, however. It’s here where they are 7-0 ATS in September off a non-division SU and ATS loss. They are also 15-2 ATS at home as a division dog or favorite of 4 or less points after allowing more than 28 points in their last game. The Pack attack lacks in division games when coming off a division battle. That’s confirmed by its 0-8-1 ATS mark when taking on a sub .500
division rival that lost its last game SU as a favorite. Monday night hangover at its best here today.
Running Totals Week One: 1-1
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
