Friday, September 05, 2008
This Weeks College Picks
Navy Will Surprise Ball State (Friday Game)
Very little to be learned from last week’s games since both teams rolled over 1-AA laughingstocks with identical 3-8 records from 2007. Cardinal QB Nate Davis passed for 280 yards and three touchdowns as Ball State racked up 487 yards on offense to beat Northeastern 48-14. Navy managed a similar 41-13 destruction of outmanned Towson, fueled by Middie RB Shun White’s school record 348 rushing yards.
Revenge also appears to be the buzz word in this early-season rematch: Navy’s lone SU loss in 9 straight skirmishes with the MAC came last year when the Gonads hung a 34-31 loss on the Swabbies as 7-point dogs. With the pride of Annapolis owning a strong 23-9 ATS mark seeking revenge on enemy turf, look for the ‘Nads to drop to an impotent 2-11 SU in games played before MAC openers.
Miami, Ohio Plus Points Vs. Michigan
Though Michigan fans may disagree, the Wolverines’ 25-23 loss to Utah in UM coach Rich Rodriguez’ debut was not the surprise many have made it out to be: the veteran Utes simply owned better, more experienced players. And that’s the problem once again here today. The RedHawks, the preseason pick to win the MAC East division behind 17 returning starters this season, fell unceremoniously in a puzzling 21-point home loss to Vanderbilt, a game which was near-even in the stats. They are 5-1 ATS on the road in games off an upset loss as a favorite. More importantly, 17 returning starter dogs in Game Two off a SU and ATS loss are a rock-solid 25-9 ATS.
Coupled with information shared in Marc’s SHAKEDOWN STREET article on page 2, we can only envision more trouble on the horizon for the Dazed-and-Blue as they continue to try and adapt to Rich Rod’s new schemes. It should be noted that when Rodriguez took over the West Virginia job in 2001 he inherited a bowl team that proceeded to fi nish 3-8 in his fi rst year at the helm. No surprise to see UM tumble to 2-10 ATS in the ‘Big House’ against non-conference foes.
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
Betcha Didn’t Know by Marc Lawrence: “Shakedown Street”
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK
This coach cooks at home in non-division games, going 23-10-1 ATS in his career. When priced as a dog or favorite of less than 3 points, he improves to 19-5 ATS. And thru Game 12 of the season in this range, he is 17-2 ATS. Who is this week’s Master Chef?
THIS WEEK'S AMAZING SITUATIONAL PLAY
Be sure to check out the COACHES LEAGUE for ATS records on every College & NFL coach in 16 key situational roles. Simply log on to
http://www.PLAYBOOK.com and click on the COACHES LEAGUE.
PLAY AGAINST any college favorite in Game Two of the season who won 7 or more games last year if they lost Game One SU as a favorite.
“Maybe you had too much too fast, Or just overplayed your part. Nothin’ shakin’ on Shakedown Street. Used to be the heart of town. Don’t tell me this town ain’t got no heart. You just gotta poke around.”
If you happen to be a ‘Deadhead’ you know exactly where we’re headed here. Arguably the most popular cult band of all-time, the Grateful Dead was founded in the mid ‘60’s when bands like the Beatles and the Rolling Stones were busy dominating the music scene. Described as an electric Lovin’ Spoonful with a dirtier sound, the Dead’s lead vocal was guitarist Jerry Garcia. When Garcia’s health deteriorated before his passing in 1995, Bruce Hornsby provided keyboards and vocals in the early ‘90’s. Along with the likes of Big Brother and the Holding Company, Jefferson Airplane and Santana, the Dead was known for its Haight-Ashbury San Francisco sound. They were among 32 of the best-known musicians to perform at Woodstock.
When their set was played in the rain, several band members received shocks during their performance and bass player Phil Lesh said he heard a helicopter radio transmission through his bass while playing. (It’s a good thing it was raining, otherwise the sounds he was hearing would likely have been traced to the buzz on stage.)
Like the fans that fl ocked to Woodstock, college football attracts its share of groupies, too. They are generally those who look to jump and stay on the bandwagon of winning teams. But it’s not so much recognizing when to jump on... it’s knowing when to get off that matters the most.
It seems that teams who enjoyed winning seasons the previous year are a frontrunner’s dream the next season. Like the words in the verse of the Dead’s popular ‘Shakedown Street’ (see above), sometimes certain teams enjoy success too much, too fast and perhaps simply played over their head. We can identify these pretenders real fast simply by fading teams in Game Two of the season when they are off a straight-up favorite loss in their season opener – provided they won 7 or more games the previous year. These teams are just 39-63 ATS in this role since 1980. Better yet, these deadheads become solid ‘play against’ material when we –
That’s because teams in this role are 23-42 ATS since 1980, including 7-23 ATS when facing an opponent that’s also off a loss. Better yet, by poking around and dressing them up as double-digit favorites in these ‘shakedown’ games, they slip to 3-16 ATS!
Last year, one team met our criteria when Florida State laid 32 points at homeagainst UAB just five days after stubbing its toe at Clemson as 3.5 point road chalk in their lidlifter. The Sems went through the motions in a 34-24 win over the Blazers, not nearly enough to overcome the huge impost. (Qualifying plays on this week’s card can be heard on the PLAYBOOK Weekend Update Phone this Friday after 1:00 PM ET.)
FYI: a perfect 0-14 ATS subset resides nside this angle. It’s yours when you isit
http://www.PLAYBOOK.com and click on he 2008 BLACK BOOK™ link waiting in he HANDICAPPERS LOUNGE section of he site.
After shaking down this perfect angle why not sit back and enjoy a pint of Ben & Jerry’s Cherry Garcia.
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Friday, August 29, 2008
‘Opening Day Upsets on College Gridiron’ from Playbook.com
**UPSET**
GAME OF THE WEEK **UPSET**
NEW MEXICO over Tcu by 3
We had considered going with Gary Patterson’s well-coached Frogs here (covered 3 straight season openers) but with New Mexico recently placed on a 3-year NCAA probation for recruiting and academic violations, Rocky Long’s Lobos should bust through the gate with an urgency to ‘get it done now’. Coming off a superb 9-4 season that included a 23-0 shellacking of Nevada in last year’s New Mexico Bowl (Lobos’ fi rst bowl win in 46 years!), UNM can improve head coach Rocky Long’s record as MWC underdog to 26-15 with a pointspread cover today.
A closer look at the Horned Ones reveals a tendency to perform much better at Fort Worth: Patterson stands 22-15 ATS at home but sinks to a 17-24 spread mark away from Amon G. Carter Stadium, including just 8-15 as a road favorite. The Lobos should also be snarling over last year’s 37-0 humiliation by the Frogs, Long’s third consecutive loss to Patterson. We’ll go with a pack of wild wolves to raise the ATS mark of HD’s in season-opening conference games to a perfect 4-0.
Best Bet
Intriguing matchup between two promising teams that never quite seem to ‘make it over the hump’. That just might change in 2008 for Michigan State, our choice for ‘sleeper team’ in the Big 10. All six Spartan losses in ’07 were by 7 or fewer points and talented RB Javon Ringer is the most dynamic player on the field today. Hard-nosed SR QB Brian Hoyer compliments head coach Mark Dantonio’s style, playing with passion and purpose, to a tee. Dantonio also answers this week’s TRIVIA TEASER (see page 2).
Cal owns a sorry 0-5 ATS mark at home before back-to-back road games – plus the Bears can’t focus the week before taking on Washington State, failing to cover in fi ve of the last six such games. Worst of all, California is the ONLY team in the nation to slip both offensively and defensively each of the last three years. With experienced QB Nate Longshore losing his starting job to SO Kevin Riley, the Bears may continue to slip, slide away.
Written by Marc Lawrence
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
