Thursday, November 29, 2012

College & Pro Upsets Dec. 1-3

College Pick

TCU over Oklahoma by 6

Remember the old television show ‘Have Gun - Will Travel’ which aired from 1957-1963 and starred Richard Boone? Well, the 2012 version stars the Oklahoma Sooners and is called ‘Have Gun – Won’t Cover.’ The high-scoring Sooner Schooner, led by the slinging Landry Jones, has lit up the scoreboard for 50 or more points fi ve times this season, yet are only 4-6 on the ATS scorecard. In fact, they really haven’t come close to covering in the last three weeks (all wins) and the last time they did bring home the cash was a 35-20 win over Iowa State in early November. Yet, somehow through it all, Bob Stoops’ squad just may nab that fi nal at-large BCS bid (Notre Dame, Florida and Oregon fi gure to get the other three) as conferences (read: SEC) are limited to just two invites. Of course a win today along with some help from Texas would guarantee the Sooners a BCS bowl, but our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 says OU is completely over-cooked concerning this little get together in Forth Worth. So does our database as it reminds us that the Sooners are 1-5 ATS after ogling with Oklahoma State and 2-6 ATS as conference chalk of 10 or less points. And when you throw in TCU’s 12-1 SU and 9-4 ATS log in Last Hone Games, including 4-0 SU ATS when not favored by 13 or more points, and 9-3-1 ATS mark as conference dogs of 10 or less points, you can see why we think the combination of our AWESOME ANGLE along with the OSU letdown and the importance of this contest will spell doom for the erratic Sooners. We say take what you can get but you won’t need it as the Horned Frogs jump to 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in this series since 1996.



PRO PICKS

MIAMI over New England by 6


They’re big, they’re bad and they’re ferocious. With only three losses this season by a grand total of 4 points, the Patriots have the look of a cat that just ate the whole bird. In this case, New England did when they devoured the Jets on Thanksgiving Day in a 30-point feast. That sets the table for today’s fray as NFL road teams off a Turkey Day game are only 3-21 SU and 6-17-1 ATS when facing a foe off a SUATS win. And the bigger they are, the harder they fall as these visiting teams are 1-15 SU and 2-13-1 ATS if they own a winning record. Add brazen Bill’s 0-5 ATS career mark in road tilts off wins in his last fi ves contests where both his team and the visitor are off SUATS wins, and suddenly ‘bad’ takes on a whole new meaning. Miami chips in with a sterling 6-1-1 ATS record in division home games when seeking quadruple revenge exact and better yet, 10-1 ATS in revengers against division foes with a winning record. Add in the fact that the fi ve rookie starting QB’s are an eye-opening 12-5 SU and 13-3-1 ATS as home dogs this campaign and just like that we’re
on Ryan Tannehill and the Fish in this post-tryptophan tryst as the Pats hold off popping the AFC East champagne for another week.


TENNESSEE over Houston by 4

Life atop the division standings is carefree and comfortable for teams with a 3-game lead in the NFL this time of the year. Too comfy if you’re the Houston Texans, a team that sprinted out to a lead in the AFC South and has never looked back. A 38-14 romp over the Titans back in September played out to a 22-20 ‘re-score’ win for Tennessee in our MIDWEEK ALERT when the Titans outgained the Texans, 325-297, in the contest. Armed with ‘inside-out’ loss division revenge, Tennessee enters off a phony 24-19 ‘inside-out’ loss as 3-point favorites at Jacksonville last week in which they outgained the Jaguars in the total stats. That sets the
stage for this tilt as our prodigious database note: NFL division home dogs with revenge, off a SU road favorite loss, are 10-2 ATS when taking more than 3 points from a foe off a win of 7 or less points since 1980. With Houston on cloud nine and just 2-5-1 ATS in its expansion franchise history as favorites against avenging division opponents (including 0-3 SUATS when laying less than 6 points), look for the wear and tear of back-to-back overtime wins to knock the tall, tall Texans off their saddles today.


WASHINGTON over NY Giants by 10

To say this has been quite a crop of rookie quarterbacks this season would be an understatement. Collectively, through Game Eleven, they’ve been money in the bank at home (18-8-1 ATS) and as dogs (25-12-1 ATS). Heading the pack is electrifying Robert Griffin III who has held up his end of the deal, going 5-2 ATS as a dog, winning four times in straight-up fashion. RGIII’s 104.6 QB Rating ranks 4th best in the league and he’s playing with revenge from a 27-23 loss at in which the Skins outgained the Giants, 480-393. That sets up this call as our database notes Monday night home teams seeking revenge off a SU road win are a sterling 25-
6-2 ATS when hosting a foe off a home win since 1980. The welloiled machine also reminds us that sub .700 NFL home teams off a SUATS Thanksgiving Day win are 14-5 SUATS, including 13-3 SU and 14-2 ATS when taking on a .333 or greater opponent. With the G-Men bumbling on the road at 2-11 ATS against opponents off a SU dog win during the 3rd Quarter (Games Nine-Twelve) of the season, and the Pigskins 9-0-1 ATS as dogs off a pair of wins when facing a foe off a SUATS win, look for RGIII to light up the crowd and the scoreboard once again tonight.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Saturday, November 24, 2012

College & Pro Upsets Nov. 23-26

TEMPLE over Syracuse by 1

The Owls got off the ‘ITS’ schneid last Saturday with a resounding 63-32 rout of Army as RB Montel Harris rushed for 351 yards and seven touchdowns. And though a win this afternoon in Philly would still fi nd them falling one game short of bowl aspirations, the Owls catch the Orange in a most undesirable role: that of a road favorite in a season fi nale off back-to-back SU underdog wins. Teams in this predicament are a mind-boggling 1-15 ATS since 1980. To boot, the ‘Cuse is 0-3 ATS as road chalk off a SU win versus a foe off a SU win while HC Doug Marrone answers the call as the frail favorite in this week’s TRIVIA TEASER. And when you add to the equation that the series host is 4-0 SU and ATS since 2001, and that the satisfi ed Orange clinched a bowl berth with a victory last Saturday in Mizzou, you have the makings of another Montel mash. No, you don’t need ‘Owl’ to spell bowl this year but all the sign language still points to a Temple victory. Can you say juicy money line!



Arizona State over Arizona by 7

With bowl tickets already in hand and no shot at the Pac-12 South title, this game is all about bragging and recruiting rights between new head coaches Rich Rodriguez and Todd Graham. And we have a feeling that recruits will quickly fi nd out Rich-Rod is 8-18-1 ATS as a conference home favorite, including 3-10-1 ATS versus an opponent with a winning record, while the well-traveled Graham (4th team in six years) is 4-0 ATS as a dog versus a foe off a SU dog win. Yes, Graham may not be around by the time a freshman gets his redshirt but at least he’s not 10-14 SU and 7-16 ATS from Game Eleven out like his Grand Canyon state counterpart. His 150-YPG superior stopunit has also not allowed season high – or 2nd high – yardage in five of its last seven games. Rich-Rod’s ‘D’ has had holes bigger than the aforementioned canyon at times this season (allowed 38 or more points in fi ve games) and that should help the Sun Devils make amends for last season’s 31-27 loss in Tempe as double-digit chalk. We could say that’s ‘Grand’ but our vocabulary is more in line with slam, bam, thank you Graham.’ Either way, the prized recruits will be donning maroon and gold – and not red and blue – when this one is in the books. Points are optional.



Rice over UTEP by 6

Like ten other teams on today’s card, the Owls are in mandatory need of a win to become bowl eligible. And after delivering a 4* Late Phone winner for us last Saturday, we’ll give David Bailiff’s birds another shot at capturing some pointspread prey here. They’ve kept the Miners underground in this series of late, posting a sweet 6-2 SU and 8-1 ATS record – including 4-0 SUATS off a SU win. UTEP gets the shaft again, dropping all four games as chalk this year and struggling to a 1-7 SU mark against .250 or greater foes in 2012. Perhaps our strongest support comes from Miners head coach Mike Price himself, decribing freshman QB Blaire Sullivan’s play in Saturday’s narrow decision over Southern Miss. “Blaire threw some really crucial perfect passes,” said Price. “And then a couple of other ones… well, I’m glad it’s not duck-hunting season right now because he would have got a couple of those shot out of the air.” This just in: after a 31-year career notable for two Rose Bowl bids at Washington State and a drinking binge that cost him the Alabama job before he ever coached a game, Mike Price will hang it up after today’s game.

FLORIDA INT’L over La-Monroe by 1

Our second ATS fade of a Louisiana-hyphen school today. With previously injured QB Kolton Browning back in the lineup last week against North Texas, the Warhawks rolled past the Mean Green, 42-16, to assure
themselves of their best record since moving to the FBS. Not so for the Panthers who close the books on one of the most disappointing campaigns in the program’s 9-year FBS history. However, Mario Cristobal’s team has yet to quit and they’ll look to capture a 3rd straight win here to build some positive momentum for next season. The line is defi nitely out of kilter: at the beginning of the season, the Warhawks would have been a 6-point dog in this spot. Though they have gone 5-1 ATS on the road in 2012, they’ve NEVER been favored here, making this too much of a leap forward in terms of the spread. FIU’s outstanding 7-1 SU and ATS mark in the final three games of the season the last three years says the Panthers will take care of business in their home finale this evening.


PRO UPSETS


OAKLAND over Cincinnati by 1

Quick. Look at your watch. It’s 1:00 PM ET on a Sunday in the NFL and we’re prepared to fade the dreaded West coast time zone jinx with a litany of numbers design to stop time right in its tracks. Enter the Raiders on a 0-3 SUATS slide, a role in which they stand 4-0 ATS the last six years. The Black-and-Silver also happen to be 9-4 SU and 12-1-1 ATS as road dogs off a pair of losses during the 3rd quarter of the season (Games Nine-Twelve) dating back to 1980. On the fl ip side, the Bengals return home sporting a gaudy 0-8 ATS record as home favorites of 4 or more points versus opponents off a double-digit loss, dropping fi ve of the eight games in straight-up fashion. Meanwhile, our PLAYBOOK.com NFL Coaches League (see inside the Betting Tools section of the site) reports Marvin Lewis is 1-9 ATS as home chalk in games against foes off a loss of 10 or more points in his NFL career. While it’s been said that time stands still for no man, we figure it’s up for the Bengals here today. Upset in the Queen City.



Kansas City over Denver by 1

If ever a struggling team needed to host a hated division rival, it would be the Chiefs this week. The Featherheads have fed the tribe scalping the Broncos at Arrowhead as home dogs, going 10-4 SU and 10-3-1 ATS. They also benefi t from Denver’s recent hot hand, now grabbing doubles in the teepee. While on the subject of large numbers, we bet you didn’t know NFL home dogs of 8 or more points are a jaw-dropping 22-2 ATS over the last three years. Speaking of the Broncos, whether he starts this game or charts from the sidelines, KC QB Brady Quinn knows the intricacies of the Denver offense, having spent the previous two seasons with the club. Meanwhile, the Peyton Manning-led Broncos have tallied 30 or more points in each of their last fi ve contests. Not a good proposition for teams off a win as they have managed to beat the spread in only 11 of 31games in this role since 1980. Given Denver’s dour 1-10-1 ATS mark in division games against .250 or less opponents, and Romeo Crennel’s 6-1 ATS career mark in games off a loss versus opponents off a pair of SUATS wins, it’s upset city in Missouri on a day most suicide pools die.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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Friday, November 16, 2012

College & Pro Upsets Nov. 17-18

COLLEGE PICKS

West Virginia over Oklahoma by 1

Forget about where have you gone, Joe Dimaggio – that was 1968. How about where is Geno Smith? He disappeared a month ago (last seen running off with a cardboard Heisman) as the Mountaineers have dropped four straight following a 5-0 start to the season. Our AWESOME ANGLE on page 2 thinks he’ll resurface this week, however, as does the Mounties’ sterling 11-5 SU and 14-2 ATS mark
as conference dogs (4-0 ATS home). Further proof of his existence looks to be a 6-0-1 ATS Game Ten log and a 5-0 ATS mark versus .700 or greater conference opposition from Game Eight out. In fact, we may be looking for ‘Big Game’ Bob Stoops when this one is over as hisdisappointing Sooners are just 2-6 ATS as a double-digit conference road favorite off a SU win versus winning opposition. OU is also 1-4-1 after brawling with Baylor and 2-6 ATS before a home game with Oklahoma State. And you can bet (and we will) that Stoops and company has had that game against the Cowboys circled in red after last season’s blowout loss in Stillwater sent the Sooners to the Insight Bowl and the ‘Boys to the Fiesta. Where have you gone, Geno Smith? Oh, there you are. Good, ‘cause a lonely Mountaineer nation turns its eyes to you. WVU, outright… hey, hey, hey!






RICE over Smu by 7

Is there any 6-4 team out there right now that’s as schizoid as SMU? Here’s an outfi t that lost outright as a 19-point favorite to pitiful Tulane – who was 0-5 at the time – then utterly destroyed Houston, 72-42. Wait… they’re not done. After getting spanked as a single-digit dog by UCF, 42-17, the Mustangs rebounded to smother Southern Miss, 34-16. Simply put, you never know which team you’re going to get when you back these guys. However, here it won’t matter. Not with this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT and Marc’s ALL REVVED UP Betcha Didn’t Know article lined up on the Owls! That’s a serious onetwo punch right there – but a look at recent series history tells us the knockout is a virtual certainty. Check it out: SMU has lost nine of the last 10 games with Rice OUTRIGHT and the Ponies have won SU just once in their last 11 trips to Houston. The Owls are a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings and have cashed eight consecutive tickets on this fi eld. Yikes! With the Mustangs coming off a Southern Miss revenge win with a Tulsa revenger up next, the hard-charging Owls (won 3 of last 4 games SU) couldn’t ask for a better time to send off the seniors. A win here and next week against UTEP sends the Krispies bowling, so the upset is no surprise. A solid take.



SAN JOSE ST over Byu by 3

Here’s a ‘Perception Versus Reality’ game for you. The perception is that San Jose State isn’t a very good team… while BYU is. Truth is the highly-touted Cougars are just 6-4 SU on the year while the Spartans are 8-2, losing only to Stanford and Utah State (16-4 SU combined). Even better, the Jose home boys are an attention-getting 10-1 ATS in their last 11 when wearing the dog collar. Here’s some more reality for you: the Mormons are just 1-9 SU away versus .500 or better opponents the last three years, including 0-3 ATS this year and 0-6 ATS versus winning foes. Those numbers fi t hand-in-glove with BYU’s weak 3-8 ATS effort as chalk of less than 8 points and San Jose State’s 7-2 ATS log in 2012 under 3rd-year coach Mike MacIntyre. We think we’ve perceived a new reality. Take the points with the better team.



PRO PICKS

PHILADELPHIA OVER WAshington by 10

Ch-ch-changes. Plenty appear to be in the offi ng for the struggling Eagles. Head coach Andy Reid is sitting squarely on the hot seat as his team has lost fi ve consecutive games for the fi rst time in his 14-year tenure with Philadelphia. With Michael Vick sidelined again (confirm status), Reid is forced to cave into fans’ wishes and start rookie QB Nick Foles while his troops take the fi eld with both a Top 10 ranked offense and defense. Lucky for the Birds they’re taking on Mike Shanahan, a coach who has struggled in his NFL career when hosting losing opponents, going 16-38-2 ATS, including 2-15 ATS the last 17 against foes off a loss of 6 or more points. Worse, the Pigskins are a jaw-dropping 2-21-1 ATS as favorites when facing opponents off a SUATS loss during the 3rd quarter of the season (Games Nine-Twelve). They are also a victim of Marc’s JUST LIKE A WOMAN Black Book article, one which implores us to fade division home favorites seeking triple revenge against foes off a loss. Toss in the fact that Reid is the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on Page 2 and you have the makings of a team about to make a change… for the good.


DETROIT over Green Bay by 11

There is no more motivating factor for a team that made the playoffs last year than to be a cellar dweller the next. And just what is it that brings the best out in these teams, you ask? A visit from last year’s division bear, and a dose of double-revenge, does the trick almost every time. Toss in 3.5 points for good measure from the linemaker and you have a live division dog that is more than ready to regain its growl. In this case, it’s a caged Lion whose stats this year are actually better than last season’s, showing improved numbers on both sides of the ball. Detroit also brings the better offense and the better defense into this battle knowing they are 16-2 ATS at home in division games when seeking double revenge-exact, including 14-0 ATS when hosting a .777 or less opponent. Meanwhile, the Packers can’t seem to get in an offensive rhythm this season with its offense 7 PPG and 55 YPG off from last year’s production. Our powerful database provides the cement, noting that NFL division home dogs off a SU road favorite loss are 34-16-2 since 1980. Revenge rears its ugly head as the Lions un-cage their anger and roar today.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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