Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Friday, January 04, 2019


Best Playoffs Upset, Weekend JAN 5


Seattle over Dallas by 3

As you know, we’ve never been fond of Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett in the role of favorite, and we’re not about to change stripes today. Not with the Cowboys owning an inexcusable 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS record in the playoffs since 1997. And not with Garrett standing 16-32-1 ATS as a home favorite, including 0-2 ATS in the postseason, as well as 1-6 ATS as a favorite of less then 3 points. With that the surging Seahawks invade behind a coach that stands 14-6 SUATS with Seattle in games against the NFC East, including 8-2 SUATS away and 8-2 SUATS in games in which Seattle owns a .600 or greater win percentage. And then there is QB Russell Wilson and his 17-6-1 ATS dog log in games against winning foes, including 10-2-1 ATS when those game opponents are coming off consecutive wins. With Wild-Card Round underdogs 6-1 ATS in games in which they were favored by more than 12 points the previous game, you know what to do.




Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Friday, December 28, 2018


Best Bowl and Pro Upsets, Weekend Dec 28


Pittsburgh over Stanford by 6

' After 4 straight wins got the Panthers in position to rack up their first ACC Coastal Division crown, they closed out the regular seasonby getting thumped by Miami, then got pounded by Clemson in the ACC title game. Meanwhile, Stanford had a rather bizarre season that opened with four straight victories and ended with three consecutive wins – it was the 1-4 stretch in the middle that had HC David Shaw scratching his head. In the past, heading into a bowl game with consecutive losses hasn’t sounded the death knell for Pitt. In fact, it has happened twice before and both times the Panthers won and covered the bowl game. Also, head Panther Pat Narduzzi has posted a 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS record coming off a double-downer. Looking at the recent bowl history for these two conferences, ACC bowlers coming off a loss are 8-2 ATS versus a Pac-12 opponent. Shaw is 5-2 ATS in bowl games, but favorites in this particular bowl game are just 5-15 against the number. As for Stanford, the Tree was outstatted in 5 of eight games versus bowl teams this season, and allowed more yards than they gained overall (-21 net YPG). Finally, consider THE CLINCHER: Pac-12 bowl favorites are 3-12 ATS against foes coming off consecutive losses, including 0-8 ATS when they own a win percentage of .600 or greater.



Iowa over Mississippi St by 1

Points are not expected to come easy in the fi rst bowl game of 2019. Our most recent look at the total has a 44, which is among the lowest of the entire bowl season and for good reason. This SEC/Big Ten battle features a Mississippi State defense that was No. 1 in fewest points allowed at 12 PPG and was 3rd in total defense at 268.4 YPG. Iowa is not that far behind in either category, ranked 11th in points allowed at 17.4 PPG and 7th in total defense at 289.6 YPG. Little wonder the Bulldogs held five opponents to a season-low in yards gained and Iowa limited four foes to a season-low or second-lowest yards gained in 2018. That places the onus on the offense to make plays and that should give the Hawkeyes an edge. Iowa is not a prolific offense, rushing for 162 YPG and passing got 228, but coach Kirk Ferentz’ team is efficient, ranked 27th in points per play under QB Nick Stanley, which leads to 31.5 PPG on the scoreboard. Mississippi State is a run first team as our College Bowl Stat Report shows, averaging 226 YPG on the ground (22nd). QB Nick Fitzgerald is the Bulldogs’ leading rusher at 1,061 yards and he’s an adequate passer with 15 TDs and 7 Picks. Look for turnovers to play a key role and with the Hawkeyes leading the nation in interceptions (18), that could turn the tide. In
addition, Big Ten bowl dogs off a win are 18-8 ATS versus foes with .666 or poorer record, and Ferentz is 6-2 ATS as an underdog receiving 5 or more points off consecutive wins. We like fading 1st-year coaches that are favored in bowl games, especially with support from THE CLINCHER: Bowl favorites of 6 or more points (like Miss. State), who won a bowl game SU as a dog of more than 6 points last season, are 1-9 ATS against sub .700 opponents.

NFL

Houston over Jacksonville by 17


Lots of playoff upgrading possibilities exist for the Texans today. The one constant, though, is they have clinched a spot in this year’s postseason. With that, our well-oiled machine comes to Houston’s aid as it notes that NFL playoff teams are 45-11 SU and 38-17-1 ATS at home against division foes in season finales when coming off a loss before heading off to the postseason... including 32-3 SU and 26-9 ATS against losing foes. That sets the table for today’s game as Jacksonville enters with backup QB Cody Kessler cooking following his second career win last week at Miami. Yes, we’re being facetious, especially given the fact that Kessler passed for 107 yards in the win as he improved his NFL career record to 2-10 SU and 4-8 ATS. And with last week’s outburst Kessler’s teams have now scored a total of 88 points in his last eight starts. That’s simply not going to cut it today against a team that is averaging 27 PPG at home this season. We seal the deal with THE CLINCHER: Jacksonville is 0-11 SU and 1-10 ATS as a dog in Last Games of the Season when coming off a non-division game.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, December 20, 2018


Best College & Pro Upsets, Weekend of DEC 22-24


Army over Houston by 13

For the second year in a row and third time ever, Army has won 10 times in a football season. These Black Knights’ seniors can cement their place in Army football history by beating Houston in this bowl and winning 11 games. The Black Knights option offense averaged 29.7 PPG and they are second in the country in rushing at 303 yards a game and No.1 in time of possession. This is not all that untypical for a military school but what separates this Army squad from previous editions is its defense. The Cadets only allowed 18 PPG (15th nationally) and held opposing teams to 9.9 PPG below their usual scoring average and to 81 fewer yards per contest. The way to look at this bowl is the execution of the Black Knights vs. the speed of Houston. When we say speed, we mean it two ways. It starts with the skill position players of the Cougars and in their linebackers. All these Cougs can scamper. Also, Houston’s offense was fourth in scoring at 46.4 PPG and they accomplished this while 129th in time of possession! Talk about your opposites! The Cougars defense might be fast, but they are always out of position and are terrible tacklers. They permit 34.4 PPG and not one bowl team allowed more yards. DT Ed Oliver decided not to play after an injury-plagued season and the Cougars other three top defensive linemen are injured. In addition, it should be noted that Army recruits the state of Texas as much as any school in the country (23 players on the roster from Texas). “This isn’t our first trip to Texas... Each time we come down here, we make it a big deal. We use all the social media avenues to reach out to prospects to let them know we’re going to be here. It further solidifies that we want Texas players on our team,” said head coach Jeff Monken. The pitch is simple enough: Come to the top public university in America, play in a football program that has as good a tradition as any in college football (three national championships, three Heisman Trophy winners) and graduate into a well-paying job as a second lieutenant. With Houston using a backup quarterback and Army 9-2 ATS in away games against a team with a winning record, they appear to be a solid choice. We salute the Army as we close it out with THE CLINCHER: Military bowlers are 33-13 ATS since 1981, including 23-4 ATS vs .600 or greater foes.



NFL

Atlanta over Carolina by 11


From Marc’s featured BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article in this week’s USA TODAY SPORTS WEEKLY: The penultimate week in the NFL is most critical for teams whose playoff fate is on the line. In addition, teams entering Week 15 of the regular season with either 6 or 7 wins are also striving to avoid a losing campaign. As a result, when favored these teams are generally under added pressure to perform, especially at home. It’s where the Vegas oddsmakers make backing them a costly proposition. That’s confirmed by the fact that 6 or 7 win NFL home favorites in Game 15 of the regular season are just 57-47 SU but only 31-68-5 ATS. That’s not good news today for the Panthers, who enter off Monday night’s close-call loss with the Saints, which dropped them to the barely alive 9th spot in the NFC playoff picture. It’s not often you’ll find teams favored in this league riding a 6-game exact losing streak as they are just 12-20 ATS at home in this role since 1980 – including 7-18 ATS when laying 2 or more points (2-11 ATS when seeking revenge). With Superman having taken on too much kryptonite of late, we call on THE CLINCHER: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is 7-1 ATS as a road dog with a losing record from Game Twelve out, including 6-0 ATS when not coming off a double-digit loss.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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