Friday, December 16, 2011
Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets December 17-18
MARSHALL over Florida Int'l by 6
A bookend 3-0 start and fi nish propelled the 8-4 Golden Panthers to the postseason for a second straight year and now Mario Cristobal’s crew will look to build on last season’s 34-32 bowl win over Toledo. Not bad for a
team that was 17-52 SU between 2004 and 2009! The problem, though, is this year’s opponent has plenty of bowl class. Since becoming a lined-team in 1998, Marshall owns a 6-1 SU and ATS record on the alleys, including 4-1 SU and ATS when taking points. And speaking of class, while Doc Holliday’s squad was taking its medicine against West Virginia and Virginia Tech in non-conference affairs – as well as Houston and Southern Miss in leagueplay – the Panthers were facing the likes of Duke (a 31-27 loss) and Akron. In fact, the only non-conference team that FIU beat that had a winning record was a Louisville squad that also fell prey to Marshall. And while the Panthers did fi nish the season on that aforementioned 3-0 SU run, our MIDWEEK ALERT points out that they were outstatted in three of their final four games. Not so for Marshall, who closed out the regular season both 3-1 SU and ‘In The Stats.’ And from our classy PLAYBOOK.com database, which you will see plenty of this bowl season, here’s a trifecta that should garner a healthy return: 6-6 bowl dogs off back-to-back SU wins are 6-1 ATS while 6-6 bowl dogs versus an opponent off back-to-back SU and ATS wins are 7-1 ATS. In addition, sub .750 bowl favorites off back-to-back SU wins, with the last a revenge victory, are 6-28 ATS. With Cristobal 5-17 SU versus winning opposition in his career, we’ll back the team that closed like a race horse versus one that pulled up ‘ITS, ITS’ (In The Stats, In The Stretch). Grab the points as the wrong team is favored tonight in St. Pete.
PRO PICKS
WASHINGTON over NY Giants by 3
After riding a 4-game losing skid, the Jersey Giants awoke from the dead to steal a win at Dallas and now control their fate in the NFC East – despite owning the 3rd-worst defense in the league (392 YPG). With that comes thoughts of the origin of the Big Apple choke, or in this case ‘shoo fl y pie and apple pan dowdy.’ That’s because teams who upset the Cowboys are just 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in their next game when facing a division foe coming off a loss. The Deadskins enter off a hard-fought 34-27 home loss to New England, the team’s 8th defeat in its last nine games, but their 3-0 ITS effort in the last three games tells us this bunch of native Americans has not tossed in the towel. Plus, you can rest assured that squinty-eyed head coach Mike Shanahan has not forgotten being embarrassed by the Giants at home in the season’s fi rst game, 28-14. We didn’t have to look long to find a treasure trove of numbers backing the visitors. Washington is 9-0 ATS away versus a division opponent off a road game, 12-1 ATS as December dogs off a loss when playing the role of avenging foe, and 5-1 ATS away from D.C. when taking on an NFC East adversary off a SU and ATS win. Need more? Coach Shanahan’s perfect 7-0 ATS mark as a dog of 6 or more points when his team owns a win percentage of less than .400 on the season cements it. You can call‘em red or you can call ‘em dead… but we think the ‘Skins are the play today.
San Diego over Baltimore by 10
Here we go, hopping back on the Chargers bandwagon. We realize that as long as Tebow is in the AFC West, the Chargers can’t win the division (as confi rmed by a higher power), but rest assured Philip Rivers won’t go down without a fi ght. Our NFL QB Club tells us that December has always been a month to remember for Rivers as he s a ‘Lexus’-like 22-1 SU and 16-7 ATS in the fi nal stanza of the year, including 3-0 SU and ATS as a dog. Our NFL Coaches League also reports that even Norv shines this time of year, posting a 5-0 ATS mark as a dog off back-to-back SU wins from Game Thirteen out in the regular season. The Bolts are also 9-0 ATS as dogs off back-to-back SU wins and 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six as home dogs. That ties in nicely to Baltimore’s 0-11 ATS mark as non-division road favorites off back-to-back SU wins versus .500 or less opposition. We may not have the catchy Christmas music that Lexus has but our AWESOME ANGLE can put a bow on this one as the Chargers make another patented ‘Stretch Run.’ In fact we’re skipping the small spot and heading right to the money line. We suggest you do the same.
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Friday, December 09, 2011
Marc Lawrence NFL Upsets for Week 13
PRO PICKS
TENNESSEE over New Orleans by 10
We know that the Saints are marching into Nashville with four straight wins and covers. But we bet you didn’t know that favorites off a SU and ATS home win which was preceded by a SU and ATS Monday night home win are just 2-14 ATS since 1990. The Saints are also a lax 2-9-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back roadies and that fi ts like Obama’s birth certifi cate on a counterfeit printing press to the Titans’ 10-2-1 ATS mark as dogs off a SU dog win. Add Tenny’s 15-3 SU and ATS log at home off a SU win of less than 7 points versus a foe with revenge – including a perfect 9-0 SU and ATS against non-division foes – to a 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 series mark since 1996 and you can see why we’re calling for the outright Tennessee win. And for all of you ‘situational’ players, the Saints’ two-game lead over Atlanta in the NFC South affords them the luxury of a trip-up while the Titans’ two-game deficit in the AFC South and battle for the Wildcard ensures a focused effort oday at LP Field. Grab the points but you won’t need ‘em as a rejuvenated Chris Johnson runs – and not marches – through the Saints secondary.
CHICAGO over DENVER by 7
Without Jay Cutler calling signals against KC last week, the Bears’ offense went into hibernation: 3 points, 181 total yards and 0-for-11 in 3rd-down situations. Now they have to travel to Mile High Stadium and try to corral a Broncos team that’s rolling off FIVE SU UNDERDOG WINS in a row. Yikes! However, even as Hollywood continues writing the script for ‘The Comeback Kid’ starring Denver QB Tim Tebow, our database reminds us that only three other teams have matched Denver’s streak and they went 1-2 SU and ATS intheir next game (0-2 SU and ATS when laying points). Those aren’t the only negative numbers saddling the Broncos today. The hosts are just 1-12 ATS in December off an NFC clash, and 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS all-time versus the NFC North. Chicago has dominated the series, going 7-1-1 ATS overall and cashing in three of the last four trips (one push) to the Rocky Mountains. Da Bears have also made the AFC West their bitches when playing off a SU loss, posting a confi dence-building 15-3 ATS record that tightens to a perfect 8-0
ATS away from the Windy City. A closer look at Denver’s come-from-behind win over Minnesota last week exposes the fact that John Fox’s squad was outgained by a whopping 153 yards. And to make matters even worse for the home team, Fox is the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. We know it’s always risky taking on a wounded bear but, in the end, they’re the ones that are the meanest and the ones that bite the hardest. Look for Chicago to call on its 8th-ranked rush defense to turn back Tebow and company in this high-altitude upset.
GIANTS over Dallas by 8
Though many will expect the Giants to suffer a letdown after nearly derailing the Packers’ perfect season last week, we think the G-men will carry confi dence from that effort into this contest. The Cowboys take the
field off a bitter OT loss to Arizona (winning FG in regulation was nullifi ed when Dallas called for a timeout right before the kick) and won’t be riding high from the looks of the ATS archives. Not only are the Pokes a lifeless 0-11 ATS in December off a SU favorite loss versus an opponent playing with revenge, they’re also an unlucky 2-6 SU and 1-6-1 ATS of late in Game Thirteen of the season. Some of that failure can be laid at the feet of Cowboys QB Tony Romo: he’s 19-2 SU as a starter in November but only 8-10 SU from December out. Eli Manning, fresh off a 347-yard, 4-TD passing performance against Green Bay, leads Big Blue into Big D knowing he’s gone 17-8 SU and 18-7 ATS on the road versus a foe off a SU and ATS loss. The Giants also boast a bankroll-building 9-0 ATS log as a December dog off a non-division game versus a foe off a loss. The clincher comes from our database as it reminds us that 6-6 teams in Game Thirteen of the season playing off a loss with revenge are 23-8 SU and ATS, including 11-1 ATS when not forced to lay points. Yes, we realize New York has dropped four games in row but when we toss in the Pokes’ recent troubles in this series (1-3 SU and ATS), we have no problem siding with the tall guys here.
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
Friday, December 02, 2011
Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets Dec. 3-4
Ohio U over No Illinois by 3
A pair of 9-3 teams go at it in a MAC title game that might actually be worth tuning in to see. At best, it’s a showcase of ‘double-deuce’ offenses– units gaining 200+ yards both rushing and passing – as Ohio averages 212 RYPG and 250 PYPG compared to NIU’s 255 and 233 YPG, respectively. At worst, it’s an opportunity for two programs that have been left at the altar in previous conference championship appearances to fi nally hoist the trophy. This Friday evening trip to Detroit marks the Bobcats’ third chance at the overall league title in seven seasons under current head coach Frank Solich (1-1 ATS) while the Huskies have lost and failed to cover MAC title games in 2005 and 2010. Last year’s defeat was particularly exasperating for Northern Illinois: coping with the news that then-head coach Jerry Kill would be leaving DeKalb to take over the top spot at Minnesota, the 19-point favorite sled dogs were stunned by Miami Ohio, 26-21. This year, however, NIU mushes to Motown riding a seven-game SU win streak and planning to pay back Ohio for a 38-31 loss in their last meeting (2009). The Bobbies boast a current fi ve-game win skein of their own and have cashed in the last three meetings with the Huskies. The boys from Athens can also claim a spotless 5-0 ATS record as Weekday dogs and a 5-1 ATS mark as underdogs of 6 or fewer points. In addition, our database leans to the Bobcats as it tells us dogs in MAC title games are a toothsome 7-1-1 ATS versus a foe off a SU win. Don’t be surprised if this game goes down to the wire: six of Ohio’s eight conference games were one-possession affairs decided by a combined total of just 23 points – and fi ve of those were decided in the fi nal minute of play! Tough to buck a Northern Illinois team that’s committed a paltry three turnovers in its last fi ve games but we’ll go with the green-and-white to grab the green in 2011’s leadoff conference title showdown.
Iowa St over KANSAS ST by 1
You probably didn’t see this one coming. Yes, we realize that the 6-5 Cyclones have very little to play for while the Wildcats are looking for their fi rst 10-win season since 2003 and a possible at-large invite to a BCS bowl game. However, our MIDWEEK ALERT reminds us that K-State hasn’t been as ‘AWESOME’ as one would think this season and our ‘Cross Dresser’ ditty on page 2 cements it. In fact, the Manhattan Cats look to be the phoniest 9-2 team to come down the pike in quite some time. Not only is Bill Snyder’s squad 1-8 ‘In the Stats’ the last nine games, they have been outgained by an average of 60 YPG on the season. And to top it off, Iowa State holds a 53-YPG net advantage against eight common opponents played this campaign. Our PLAYBOOK.com database further reminds us that ISU is 5-2 ATS as double-digit dogs with conference revenge and 4-1 ATS on the road after dealing with Oklahoma while the Wildcats are 0-3 ATS as double-digit chalk in LHG’s and 0-3 ATS after tangling with Texas
versus a foe off back-to-back ATS wins. And while our NCAA Coaches League even has a say in the matter as Cyclones’ HC Paul Rhoads owns eight SU underdog wins (four this season) in his three years with ISU. In addition, Rhoads is a steady 6-1 ATS as a double-digit dog versus an opponent off a SU and ATS win. The clincher, though, once again comes from our powerful database as it notes: Iowa State is 10-1 ATS with triple revenge-exact versus a foe off a SU win, including 5-0 ATS if the foe arrives with back-to-back SU victories. Yes, Kansas State has a ‘real’ 9-1 ATS ledger this campaign but that brings plenty of value to a double-digit blue-collar dog that doesn’t have a phony ‘bone’ in its body. As Eddie Albert said, “Keep Manhattan but give me that countryside”… outright!
PRO PICKS
DETROIT over New Orleans by 3
Originally, it was supposed to be the Colts and the Pats featured in this Sunday night contest but thankfully NBC called off the horses and replaced that 21-point mismatch with this important NFC showdown. The Lions suddenly fi nd themselves on the outside looking in at the playoff picture but a win tonight in the Superdome would give them at least a leg up over the Saints in the wild card race should the Falcons wind up winning the South. We’re certain that the Lions don’t want to get in a shootout with Brees and company (just ask the Giants) and they’ll count on a defense that has held two of three foes (Bears and Packers) to season-low yards since their Bye week. And while New Orleans’ 0-4 ATS log after a Monday night game along with HC Sean Payton’s 2-9 ATS mark as a favorite versus a .500 or greater opponent off a SU loss clearly tells us that the Lions stay within the number,Detroit’s 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS record in its last seven road games says the outright win is within reach. As does the Lions’ 5-3 SU and ATS mark in this series when taking points, along with a 6-3 SU record in their last nine Dome games. Suh or not, we’ll look for the visitors to stomp the hosts – and we’re not offering up any apologies!
NY GIANTS over Green Bay by 6
With three home games and only a road trip to KC left on the slate, it appears as if the G-Men are the only thing standing in the way of Green Bay’s perfect regular season. And wouldn’t it be apropos if theGiants spoiled the Packers 2011 campaign? After all, if they didn’t blow a 21-point lead with less than nine minutes to play against the Eagles in Week 14 last season, the Packers would have never even made the playoffs. While we know it’s getting old trying to beat the Pack week in and week out, our MIDWEEK ALERT is not about to give up. Unless you subscribe, you probably didn’t realize that GB is 1-5 ‘ITS’ over its last six games, allowing season high – or 2nd high –yards in fi ve of those contests. And while the Giants’ 12-8 SU and 13-7 ATS record after playing on Monday, along with Tom Coughlin’s 11-8 SU and 12-5-3 ATS mark versus .1000 opposition (including 2-1 SU
and 3-0 ATS as a home dog) is all good, the real gem comes from our database: since 1980, undefeated NFL teams from Game Twelve out are 17-8 SU and 7-18 ATS, including 0-6 ATS away versus non-division opposition. Yes, we realize that the Pack played last Thursday while the Giants played this past Monday but teams with this added rest advantage are only 10-9 ATS since 1982. And then there were none.
Written by John Pricci
Marc Lawrence can also be found at
Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
