Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Wednesday, September 23, 2015


College and Pro Upsets—Sept. 26 Weekend


East Carolina over VA Tech by 7

Fool us once, shame on you. Fool us twice, shame on us. Fool us nine times, shame on the men who married Zsa Zsa Gabor. As she put it, “I was a marvelous housekeeper. Every time I leave a man I keep his house.” Well, it appears Frank Beamer has taken a page out of Zsa Zsa’s book as he is just 2-9 ATS in his last 11 tries as a road favorite,
including 0-3 SUATS when playing off an away game. And this ridiculous line must have Va Tech’s name and past reputation written all over it as the Pirates are 17-3 SU in their last 20 home games, with only one loss coming by more than 5 points. Yes, after bowling each of the last three years, Ruffi n McNeil’s men find themselves in a 1-2 hole to start the season but there should be no panic as the Pirates are 17-12 SU and 21-8 ATS in games with a losing record since 2005, including 16-3 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points. And don’t forget: McNeil is 5-0 ATS in his last five versus the ACC and 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS off back-to-back losses. Even series history sides with ECU as the Pirates are 5-1-1 ATS since this matchup reconvened in 2007 after a seven-year hiatus. And while Green Acres isn’t the place to be for Zsa Zsa’s sister, Eva, Greenville certainly isn’t the right spot for Beamer’s boys this last Saturday in September. Not with the Hokies staring dead-ahead to a revenger against Pitt and this word from The Clincher: Va Tech is 0-10-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points versus an avenging opponent off a SU loss.



Arkansas over Texas A&M by 6

The Jerry’s World series has Arkansas a touchdown underdog, which is almost a 12-point swing from the preseason line offered around in Vegas. The Razorbacks were #18 in the preseason AP poll while the Aggies were unranked, but after back-to-back losses by the Hogs, they’re now a public fade. That’s a major mistake we’ll jump on. Arkansas has covered six of seven in the series and won the money in their last five conference revengers. With the Hogs currently at 1-2 on the season and A&M having beaten them each of last three years, the Aggies’ focus – at least from the players perspective – has changed and instead finds them looking ahead to back-to-back-to-back revengers versus Mississippi State, Alabama and Ole Miss. In addition, Texas A&M is also 1-5 ATS their last six at neutral sites, 1-5 ATS as a conference favorite of more than 7 points and 3-8 ATS away from home off back-to-back home games. And did we mention that Kevin Sumlin is 7-16-1 ATS as a favorite versus a conference foe with revenge, including 0-12 ATS when favored by less than 14 points?

The Fresno St over SAN JOSE ST by 3

This makes it official – a WTF hat trick to close out the day! It shouldn’t come as a surprise since both of these teams have been major disappointments this season: Fresno’s lone win came against Abilene Christian while the Spartans scratched the win column against New Hampshire. Not much else has gone right for either squad, although our MIDWEEK ALERT reminds us the Bulldogs played much closer in last week’s 21-point loss to Utah (lost stats, 380-365) than the scoreboard indicated. San Jose State returns home after road losses to Air Force and Oregon State, but an ugly 3-11 ATS failure as home chalk since 2008 – including 1-6 ATS when favored by 8 or fewer points – tells us the Spartans might be better off not unpacking their suitcases. Face it: Fresno State has won 16 of the last 19 series meetings, and we get the Bulldogs as underdogs against a foe they’ve dominated. Eight straight losses by the Spartans to FBS foes cements it – the points are the play in this college nightcap.

Pro Pick

Cincinnati over BALTIMORE by 6

Let’s see. A Game Three showdown featuring division rivals, one 0-2 and the other 2-0. What do we have in this situation, you ask? Not much says our well-intended database as it reports home teams in this spot are just 8-7 ATS since 1980. What we have, though, are some solid numbers in the Bengals favor as they are 13-8 SU and 14-6-1 ATS of late in this series, including 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS off a win, and 4-0 SUATS the last four games overall. Adding to the Ravens frustration is their 1-10 ATS mark as home chalk before playing Pittsburgh. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton’s nifty 6-2-2 ATS career mark against winless teams is also noted. And we’d be remiss if we didn’t inform you that undefeated dogs in Game Three of the season are 8-0 ATS in division games since 2006. Back the better team getting points. It works.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, September 17, 2015


Marc Lawrence College and Pro Upsets, Weekend of Sept. 19


AUBURN over LSU by 6
BEST B
Auburn QB Jeremy Johnson rallied his team with a 10-yard TD pass
with under a minute remaining to send last week’s game to OT,
and the defense took over from there in a heart-stopping win over
Jacksonville (as a 40-point favorite). However, it makes you wonder –
what did QB Nick Marshall mean to this team? Now 2-0 with a pair
of 7-point wins, Aubbie is 0-2 ITS and averaging just 364 YPG (down
from 493 YPG in the fi
rst two seasons under Gus Malzahn). Johnson
(fi
ve interceptions in the fi
rst two games) needs to get better quickly
with a trip into Death Valley this week as LSU is looking for payback
from a 41-7 pasting laid on them by Auburn last season. So what
we have here is a PLAYBOOK shocker: Take the Points! Before your
jaw hits the table, remember we’re talking about a quality dog off a
despicable performance and Malzahn is 9-3 ATS when getting points,
including
3-0 ATS
versus undefeated foes. More numbers to back it
up: LSU is
1-8 ATS
as home chalk of 7 points or more and Les Miles
is just 8-22-1 against the number as a conference home favorite off
a win. You can rip Auburn all you want but they’ve covered four of
the last fi
ve meetings between these yellow and orange tigers, and
the fact of the matter is LSU is playing worse. The Bengal Tigers have
been outgained in four of their last fi
ve games, and are averaging
less than 16 PPG in their last six. Heck, they only converted two fi
rst
downs last week against Mississippi State! But when push comes to
shove, the well-oiled machine comes up with
The Clincher: Miles is
1-11-1 ATS in his career in conference home openers.

pag
UMASS over Temple by 3
As high as we are on the Owls this season, two wins in the hand
(we’ve cashed with Temple both weeks) is not worth one double-
digit bird on the road. Maybe that’s not quite how the saying
goes but the Owls’ surprise win at Cincinnati – coupled with their
monumental upset of Penn State the previous week – puts these
Birds in a precarious spot today. Not only does our MIDWEEK ALERT
remind us Temple was outstatted by 261 total yards, our well-oiled
machine informs us that since 1980, only TWO teams have opened
with back-to-back underdog wins and then went favored on the road
in Game Three of the season. How did they fare, you ask? Well, Troy
dropped a 22-18 decision at New Mexico State in 2004 as 9.5-point
favorites and East Carolina edged the Green Wave, 28-24, at Tulane
in 2008 as 12-point chalk (once again, you’re not fi
nding this stuff on
Wikipedia!) In addition, the Minutemen arrive to this home opener
fresh off a 48-14 beating in Colorado, and that brings into play their
4-0 ATS
mark at home after allowing more than 32 points. Led by
6’6” NFL QB prospect Blake Frohnapfel, the Minutemen offense
improved dramatically last season (15 points and 139 yards per game)
and we’ll look for a better effort today in front of the home faithful.
And speaking of faithful, our steadfast database puts the fi
nishing
touches on this one as it supplies
The Clincher: 17 returning-starter
home dogs off a SUATS loss of more than 20 points are 16-6
ATS when hosting a foe off back-to-back SUATS wins, including
11-1 ATS as a double-digit dog. To which we say just a minute,
men... take the points.

Stanford over USC by 1
No. 7 Trojans have outscored foes 114-15 to start the season but folks, this
is NOT Idaho or Arkansas State they’re playing today. Stanford delivered
an uncharacteristically poor performance in its season-opening loss at
Northwestern but made amends by throttling UCF last week, 31-7, and
takes the fi
eld here with some major revenge on its side. Not only did the
Cardinal have a 16-game home win skein snapped by the Trojans in a 13-10
loss last year (The Tree dominated the stats, 413-291), they also dropped
a 20-17 decision in 2013 at USC as 4-point chalk. Stanford’s chances to get
even are bolstered by some good ATS history. The Tree has gone 3-1-1 ATS
in the last fi
ve trips to the Coliseum,
6-0 ATS
in the last six Game Three’s,
5-0 ATS
as underdogs of 8 or more points and 4-1-1 ATS in the fi
rst of back-
to-back road games. Whew! Those results look even better for Stan when
we get a look at So Cal’s 1-5 ATS failure as a double-digit favorite in this
series, as well as a 3-6-1 ATS mark at home off a home game when facing
a Pac-12 opponent. And USC head coach Steve Sarkisian has struggled to a
1-5 SUATS record in conference affairs when playing off consecutive wins
with the last coming by more than 35 points.


PRO PICKS
BUFFALO over NE by 10
It was quite impressive. Tyrod Taylor making his fi
rst start behind center
in fi
ve years last week, his fi
rst ever in the NFL. Behind Taylor, the Bills
beat back the most touted team in the AFC this season, the mega-
popular Indianapolis Colts. Don’t look now but Buffy’s back for more
this week. An impressive 19-5 ATS mark in Game Two of the season,
including
7-1 ATS
when facing an AFC East rival, sets the table. Enter
the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots, fresh off
a Tom Brady-led ‘take that and shove it’ performance over Pittsburgh
to kick off the season last week. So which team is most likely due for a
return-to-earth effort today? For the answer we turn to our powerful
database, and it notes: Defending Super Bowl champs are 18-31 ATS
when undefeated and laying points on the road, including a paltry
2-12 ATS
in this role during Game Two of the season. And to top it
off, we hand it off to
The Clincher: New England is 0-7 ATS in its
last seven games after facing the Pittsburgh Steelers.

INDIANAPOLIS over NY Jets by 17
pa
IN
The best-laid plans went up in smoke for the Colts when they forgot
to show up for their game with the Bills in Buffalo last Sunday. After
all the chatter about Indy being the wise guys’ pick to make it to the
Super Bowl this season – that’s what it is, just chatter. The two highly-
acclaimed veterans they added to the lineup, WR Andre Johnson
and RB Frank Gore, were simply little more than window dressing as
Johnson caught four passes for 24 yards while Gore galloped eight
time for just 31 yards. Simply put, the Colts threw a shoe. Tonight they
host the now-soaring Jets who disposed of Johnny Turnover and the
Browns in impressive fashion last week. The Flyboys are just 1-4 ATS in
their last fi
ve Monday Night appearances on the road. On the fl
ip side,
Indianapolis is
8-1 ATS
as a Monday Night favorite, and
8-0 ATS
off a
SUATS loss when taking on an opponent off a SU home win. For it all,
expect new plans to be in place for a reversal of fortune tonight. You
can bank on it. And you can also bank on
The Clincher: As supplied
by our Incredible Stat of the Week on page 3, Andrew Luck is
14-1 SU and ATS in games off a loss in his NFL career.






Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Wednesday, September 09, 2015


Marc Lawrence’s NFL Upsets Weekend Sept 13


BUFFALO over Indy by 7

It seems as though we’ve been playing this tune over and over the last few years. The Bills shore up on defense with promise of making it to the playoffs for the first time in 16 years and continually come up short. They came oh-so-close last season with a 9-win effort, only to be left holding the bag. Enter the flash-and-dash of new head coach Rex Ryan, who insists he knows the AFC East better than the bottom of his wife’s feet. Strong offseason acquisitions including the likes of RB LeSean McCoy, WR Percy Harvin, and TE Charles Clay add promise. As does Buffalo’s glossy 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS mark in season openers when facing non-division opponents. What really infatuates us with this contest, however, is Marc’s ‘THUNDER ROAD’ angle from the 2014 BLACK BOOK as outlined on page 2 of this week’s Playbook newsletter. To paraphrase, the Colts enter this season opener with boo-coo name and reputation, having reached the AFC title game last year and expected to do the same in 2015. It’s all based largely on the success of star QB Andrew Luck, who has devoured losing teams throughout his brilliant NFL career (20-6 SU and 19-6-1 ATS). The problem is he is only mediocre against winning opposition, and worse when facing winning teams away from home (4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS). While the Bills are not a certified winning team just yet this year, they are 11-8 over their last 19 games and we like their chances of continuing on the same path this season. Meanwhile, the Colts have also struggled in games on this field, going just 4-15 SU and 4-14-1 ATS since 1984, while the Bills are 6-1 ATS as home dogs the past two seasons. And if that’s not enough, there is always The Clincher: The Colts have lost seven straight games away versus AFC East opponents, including 0-4 SUATS behind Andrew Luck. Seems as though we’ve been playing this tune over and over the last few years. The Bills shore up on defense with promise of making it to the playoffs for the first time in 16 years and continually come up short. They came oh-so-close last season with a 9-win effort, only to be left holding the bag. Enter the flash-and-dash of new head coach Rex Ryan, who insists he knows the AFC East better than the bottom of his wife’s feet. Strong offseason acquisitions including the likes of RB LeSean McCoy, WR Percy Harvin, and TE Charles Clay add promise. As does Buffalo’s glossy 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS mark in season openers when facing non-division opponents. What really infatuates us with this contest, however, is Marc’s ‘THUNDER ROAD’ angle from the 2014 BLACK BOOK as outlined on page 2 of this week’s Playbook newsletter. To paraphrase, the Colts enter this season opener with boo-coo name and reputation, having reached the AFC title game last year and expected to do the same in 2015. It’s all based largely on the success of star QB Andrew Luck, who has devoured losing teams throughout his brilliant NFL career (20-6 SU and 19-6-1 ATS). The problem is he is only mediocre against winning opposition, and worse when facing winning teams away from home (4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS). While the Bills are not a certified winning team just yet this year, they are 11-8 over their last 19 games and we like their chances of continuing on the same path this season. Meanwhile, the Colts have also struggled in games on this field, going just 4-15 SU and 4-14-1 ATS since 1984, while the Bills are 6-1 ATS as home dogs the past two seasons. And if that’s not enough, there is always The Clincher: The Colts have lost seven straight games away versus AFC East opponents, including 0-4 SUATS behind Andrew Luck.



ATLANTA over Philadelphia by 8

Monday night’s battle of the birds finds the Eagles flying down to Atlanta to take on the Falcons in a battle of new-look teams. Philadelphia ditched QB Nick Foles, RB LeSean McCoy and WR Jeremy Maclin in the offseason in hopes of re-invigorating the offense, while adding punch to the defense (promising LB Kiko Alonso came over in the McCoy trade). We must point out that overhauls like those have not worked well for NFL teams in the past, as of the eight teams who opted to change out all three of their top skill offense slots since 1970, only one went one to record a winning record the following year. On the other side of the coin, Atlanta brought in former Seattle DC Dan Quinn as its new head coach and immediately went to work selecting LB Vic Beasley and CB Jalen Collins with its first two picks of the draft. The Dirty Birds also brought in new OC Kyle Shanahan to spark an already potent attack, led by Pro Bowl QB Matt Ryan and star WR Julio Jones. Despite winning only 10 games the past two seasons, Ryan managed to complete 66% of his passes for 54 TDs. Imagine what they might accomplish this season with a decent defense? It all starts here tonight where Atlanta’s awesome 12-1 ATS mark in home games before heading out for back-to-back road trips greatly favors the Falcons. As does The Clincher: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is 7-0 SUATS in home openers in his NFL career.

Giants Over DALLAS By 4

If you like NFL matchups featuring future Hall of Fame quarterbacks, you’re in luck tonight. And for your perusal, breaking them down for you is our well-oiled machine: NYG QB Eli Manning is a true road warrior at 46-40 SU and 49-35-2 ATS away in this NFL career – including 14-7 ATS as a road dog of 5 or more points. In addition, he is also 13-8-1 ATS in his career against the Cowboys, and 14-7 ATS as a road dog of 5 or more points in his NFL career, including 4-1 ATS in division play. On the flip side, Dallas QB Tony Romo has struggled where it matters most – against the spread – at home and in division games throughout his NFL career, going 18-29 ATS against NFC East opponents and 26-38 ATS in all home games. Worse, he is just 4-5 SUATS at home in this series, and 2-6 ATS in home openers in his NFL career. Now that you have our take on tonight’s two signal-callers, let’s turn to the teams and the top situation surrounding this affair, namely nasty quadruple-revenge for a hungry Giants team that’s taken it between the eyes in all four meetings in this series the past two seasons. That brings Tom Coughlin’s splendid 13-7-1 ATS career mark as a revenging road dog in division games into play, including 8-3 ATS when taking 5 or more points. Big Blue’s offense improved 60 YPG under new OC Ben McAdoo last year, and former QB coach Mike Sullivan is back with Eli this year – he was Manning’s coach in 2011 when Peyton’s little brother threw for nearly 5,000 yards and carried a flawed Giants team to its second Super Bowl championship in five seasons. Look out Dallas, Eli’s coming! The Clincher: Dallas QB Tony Romo is 6-15 ATS as a home favorite in division games, including 0-5 ATS versus foes that won six or fewer game the previous season.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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