Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Thursday, November 02, 2017


Marc Lawrence Best Bet Upsets NOV 4-5


MARSHALL over FLA Atlantic by 8

The high-fl ying Herd were rounded up by the upstart Golden Panthers, 41-30, last week at home as 15-point favorites and now fi nd themselves a game back of FAU for top honors in the C-USA East. However, we have no problem using the Marshall mulligan tonight in Boca Raton as Doc Holliday’s men are 4-0 SUATS in weekday play following a SU favorite loss and looking to avenge an embarrassing setback they suffered to the Owls last season as 12-point home chalk. And despite last week’s glitch on the SU scoreboard, the Herd enter tonight’s fray on a 6-0 ‘ITS’ (In The Stats) run. We realize Lane Kiffi n’s crew arrives on a 4-0 SUATS win skein after outscoring the Hilltoppers 22-0 in the 4th quarter of last week’s 42-28 victory and are averaging 54 points and 569 yards in those contests, but the Owls are branching out (i.e. - nearly double-digit favorites) too fast for our liking as they have been dogs (0-4 SU) in all four of the previous meetings between these two. And though Kiffi n is apparently feeding these nocturnals much more than bird seed, we can’t overlook the fact that the Owls are 1-7 SUATS in home lined weekday contests or 1-12 ATS in their previous 13 home games before his arrival. Thus, the feeling here is if FAU were listed on the NYSE, we’d be selling them at their peak level, especially after hearing from THE CLINCHER: Marshall is 15-3-1 ATS as a dog of fewer than 25 points after allowing 25 or more points under Holliday, including a sweet 14-1-1 ATS the last 16.



SMU over CF by 1

The Knights are 7-0 for the fi rst time in school history, but are ranked just 15th in the nation, which shows there are plenty of unbelievers out there. They lead the FBS in scoring (51 PPG) after a 73-33 annihilation of hapless Austin Peay in a write-in makeup game last week (the Governors were 0-27 entering this season) as UCF scored on 11 of their fi rst 12 possessions. Ironically, the Knights’ biggest game this year will likely be in their I-4 battle against USF in the season fi nale for both teams which will likely decide the AAC East champion, and the right to play in the conference championship game. Hence, a letdown here will be no surprise whatsoever, and there’s an outside chance that HC Scott Frost may not even be there, with the due date for his fi rst child falling on Wednesday of this week. Meanwhile, the Mustangs lost 53-7 at UCF in their most recent meeting in 2014, and the 6-2, 3-1 Ponies are now just a half game behind Memphis in the AAC West. As the ‘noose tightens’ on the Knights, this certainly has the smell of upset surrounding it, especially with THE CLINCHER: UCF is 2-10 ATS as conference favorites of 7 or more points, including 0-7 ATS if they are surrendering more than 18.5 PPG.

NFL

KANSAS CITY over Dallas by 4


As outraged and sickened as Jason Garrett is over Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension fi nally being upheld, the fact of the matter is he’ll be sorely missed here today. Not scheduled to return to the Dallas lineup until Dec 17 against the Oakland Raiders, Elliott’s absence means the onus now falls squarely on the shoulders of QB Dak Prescott. For openers, the Cowboys are 21-35-1 ATS at home under head coach Jason Garret, including 3-9 SU and 2-10 ATS against greater than .700 foes. On the other side of the coin, the Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in Game Nine of the season, while head coach Andy Reid 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in his career against Dallas when his teams are coming off a SUATS win and the Cowboys own a win percentage of less than .700 on the season. And speaking of .700 foes, here is THE CLNCHER: Dallas is 4-10 SU and 5-9 ATS against .700 or greater AFC West opponents, including 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS when Dallas is coming off a win of 14 or more points.


Written by John Pricci

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Wednesday, October 25, 2017


Marc Lawrence Best Bet Underdogs, OCT 28-29


Minnesota over Iowa by 7

Lots of good statistical and trend ammo here as the Gophers are deadlocked with the Hawkeyes at 1-3 in the Big Ten and 4-3 overall, but bring the better defense into this fray (Minny gives up 63 YPG less than Iowa). Minnesota head coach P.J. Fleck is 20-8 ATS away, including 13-3 ATS against .500 or greater opponents. But it’s a jawdropping 14-0-1 ATS mark as Big Ten dogs of more than 4 points that paves the way here, while double revenge – including the only home defeat of the season last year – cements it. Meanwhile, the Hawkeyes are ranked No. 124 in Red Zone Offense while being outgained 30 YPG this season. They’re also a ‘leaking oil’ favorite, having been outyarded in each of their last four games. Keep in mind that the Hawks have Ohio State on deck and are just 3-9 ATS at home before facing the Buckeyes. Finally, Iowa was one of a whopping eight teams that played in an overtime affair last week and with it, our well-oiled machine supplies THE CLINCHER: CFB home favorites off one loss-exact in overtime are 3-15 ATS when facing a winning avenging foe.



NEW MEXICO ST over Arkansas St by 6


DE Javon Rolland-Jones (remember that name) leads the nation with 36 career sacks, and needs just 8 more to catch Terrell Suggs for the all-time FBS mark. While the Red Wolves are back in their customary position of challenging for the Sun Belt title (3-0 in conference games, trailing 4-0 Appalachian State), the pressure is always on. The problem here is that they have coughed up seasonhigh yards in all three of their road games this year. (Where else are you going to read that other than in the Playbook?) Meanwhile, at 3-4 SU the Aggies are in a position to go bowling for the fi rst time since a 10-0 NMSU team went to the Sun Bowl in 1960. In fact, their last winning season was in 2002. This veteran Aggies team with 17 returning starters has improved its offense 6 points and 55 YPG, and its defense 8 points and 113 YPG. They’ve also been especially effective as home underdogs, covering four of the last fi ve games in that role.

Pro Picks

MIAMI over Baltimore by 6


Free at last. Free at last. Thank the Lord; we’re free at last. That’s the mantra in the Dolphins’ locker room these days with quarterback Jay Cutler’s fractured ribs a gift from the heavens. Not only does head coach Adam Gase no longer need to perpetually defend the signing of the $10 million stop-gap signal caller, but it now frees the team to operate its offense in a more effective manner behind reliable backup QB Matt Moore, who rallied the team with 17 4th quarter points in last week’s come from behind win over the New York Jets. It doesn’t hurt that Moore is 20-9 ATS in all of his starts, including 10-4 ATS away NFL career. And it couldn’t come at a better time with Miami a stellar 5-0 ATS on Thursdays following consecutive wins, as well as 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in Game Seven of the season against non-division foes. On the fl ip side, the quivering Ravens have surrendered season high – or 2nd high – yards in 4 of their last 6 games. They walloped the Fish, 38-6, here last year, handing Gase the worst loss of his young NFL career, snapping a 6-game Dolphin win skein in the process. With Baltimore QB Joe Flacco 6-12 ATS at home against opponents off consecutive wins, and the Black Birds 0-6 ATS at home off a non-division contest when facing a foe off a division game, we turn to THE GLUTEN-FREE CLINCHER: Miami QB Moore is 6-0 ATS in his NFL career against greater-than .400 opponents off consecutive SUATS losses.

DETROIT over Pittsburgh by 10


The biggest slaughter in the history of the famous Westgate Super Book Contest occurred last week when the top eleven consensus picks went 0-11, with Pittsburgh’s takedown of Cincinnati leading the barrage. Through it all the Steelers, along with Philadelphia, now hold wide 2-game leads atop their divisions. And with a bye week on deck, the Black-and-Gold are feeling mighty comfortable these days. And that would be a major mistake considering the Burghers are 0-5-1 ATS following the Bengals. And QB Ben Roethlisberger is 1-7 ATS in games following a SUATS Bengals win when facing a foe off a SUATS loss. Toss in a rotten 8-19-1 ATS mark following consecutive wins when coming off a division game under coach Mike Tomlin, including 3-10 ATS away, and you get our drift. On the other side of the coin, Lions head coach Jim Caldwell is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS against AFC North opponents. Yes, Detroit is only 1-8 SU in its last 9 games against the Steelers, and 0-5 SUATS in its last five Sunday night appearances, but one team is fat in this contest and the other is not. With that, we’ll prepare to trim the fat with THE CLINCHER: The Steelers are 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in games before their bye week the past six seasons.


Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, October 19, 2017


Best College and Pro Upsets, OCT 21-22


Wake Forest over GEORGIA TECH by 6

We all know the Wreck can’t pass the ball (No. 128 in passing offense with just 77.6 PYPG), but they lead the nation in fewest penalties (18) on the season and are also tied for the best Time of Possession (36 MPG). On the down side, they are a concerning 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games following a loss and are probably looking dead ahead to a trip to Clemson. Also, we came up with this interesting stat from our Coaches database: teams are 10-21 ATS as conference home favorites in games after facing a Mark Richt team. Meanwhile, Wake is tied with Miami for fewest turnovers lost (3) along with N.C. State and Alabama. Also, the Demon Deacons have been absolute road warriors recently, going 8-2 ATS in their last ten away games. But here’s THE CLINCHER: Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson is 13-6 ATS away in conference games following an ATS win, including 8-1 SUATS when not a double-digit dog.



OREGON over UCLA by 8

It only took two weeks – and back-to-back blowout losses – for the public to dump Oregon like a hot potato. However, we think this game could be just what the fry cook ordered for the struggling Ducks. Head coach Willie Taggart’s teams (USF and Oregon running) had scored 30-plus points 22 games in a row until their recent two game no-show (scored just 10 and 7 points). We’re calling out backup QB Braxton Burmeister, whose deer-in-the-headlights performances showed him to be incapable of moving the OU offense. Fortunately for Taggart, SR QB Taylor Alie is back and ready to go, along with a now-healthy RB Royce Freeman. That one-two punch should be enough to subdue a UCLA squad that seems to have lost its way. The error-prone Bruins rank No. 126 in TO Margin (-1.67 net TOs per game ) and HC Jim Mora – who should be on a one-way train out of LA when this season is over – owns a dreadful 1-10 ATS mark of failure as a conference favorite against foes off a SUATS loss. Another bad sign: Mora’s ‘defense’ has been gouged for over 40 PPG this season, and his Bruins have surrendered an average of 48.25 PPG the last fi ve meetings in this series. That’s a huge problem considering Mora is 1-16 ATS as a favorite in games where his team allows more than 30 points. And while we like Taggart’s 30-11-1 ATS away mark in his career, what we really like is THE CLINCHER: Oregon HC Taggart is 5-0 ATS as a dog in his career in games following consecutive ATS losses.

NFL

Atlanta over NE by 8

There is revenge. And there is meaningful revenge. This, my friend, is MOST meaningful revenge. Following the biggest giveaway loss in Super Bowl history, the Falcons’ 34-28 OT jaw-dropping defeat to the Patriots last season, you can rest assured this game has been circled with a deep shade of red lipstick – as in ‘kiss-this’ – by Dan Quinn and the Dirty Birds. It’s our best guess the Falcons were perhaps looking ahead to this game at halftime of the Dolphins game when they blew a 17-0 lead at the half against the Fish last week. What we do know is Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is 10-2 ATS in his last twelve regular season games as a non-division dog, while the Falcons are 6-1 ATS as dogs off consecutive AFC games, as well as 8-2-1 ATS in their 3rd away game of the season when seeking revenge. The defenseless Pats are dead last in overall defense allowing 441 YPG. They are also 5-25 ATS as home favorites against avenging NFC opponents. They are also 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS at home in Foxborough this season. However, from our powerful database comes THE CLINCHER: Sunday night teams playing with revenge off a SUATS favorite loss against sub .700 foes off an ATS loss are 19-3 SU and 18-3-1 ATS since 1990.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping
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