Saturday, October 06, 2012

College & Pro Upsets Oct.6-8

COLLEGE UPSETS


Navy over AIR FORCE by 3

The Midshipmen have been misfiring since the start of 2011 but they take the field for this 11:30 AM ET (9:30 Mountain Standard Time) start with double revenge on their minds. The revenge role is one the Middies have relished over the years against fellow Military squads, going 18-12-1 ATS, including 4-0-1 ATS with double-revenge exact. They are also 10-4 SU and 11-2 ATS with revenge versus .500 or less opposition. And while the offense has struggled mightily this season (17 points in three lined games), the defense has not alla touchdown in its last nine quarters of play and that should provide for a close game this MORNING in Colorado Springs. In fact, with the Air Force stop-unit having allowed season-high yardage to pathetic Colorado State and UNLV in its last two contests, we’re calling for the outright victory! And why not? The Middies outgained the Falcons by over 100 yards in last year’s gut-wrenching one-point overtime loss. With that, we say rise and shine early and back the revenge-seeking Mission Road Dog’ as the Naval Academy improves to 7-0 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back roadies while the Falcons leave in mourning.


TEMPLE over South Florida by 3

South Florida gave its all in a gutty effort against FSU last week, bringing home the money and delivering our 5* NCAA Game of the Month (now 60-29-1 since 1990). However, we won’t be running with the Bulls this
week as Skippy assumes his ‘Hyde’ role as a favorite. In fact, the Tampa contingent may be prime for an upset as they are staring dead-ahead to a Louisville revenger while Temple is anxious to make a good showing in
its Big East debut. The well-rested Owls will also be looking to improve on a 4-0 SU mark at home in games off back-to-back losses and, as you know, Homecoming dogs are more to our liking than alumni chalk. Our database also likes Steve Addazio’s crew as it notes: home dogs in Game Four with a losing record, who were a bowl team last year, are 12-2-1 ATS since 2001. Thus. It will be no surprise to see the Bulls fall to 0-6 ATS as favorites in the first of back-to-back road games. You know what to do.



Northwestern over PENN ST by 3

While the Wildcats have the look of a 5-0 Fat Cat, they’re not – not by the

terms laid out in this week’s SMART BOX. What they are is a Game Six

5-0 dog off a win of 7 or more points and these pups are a nifty 35-12-1

ATS winning proposition. The high-scoring ‘Cats gained a school-record 704

yards in last week’s rocking chair win (sure they fell asleep but woke up

the nick of time to preserve the cover) over the Hoosiers and may just have

too much offense for the conservative Lions. One note of concern, though,

is the Purple Gang’s strength of schedule as their lined FBS foes to date

are just 1-11 SU against fellow FBS foes. However, the feeling here is that

Penn State’s emotional Homecoming will be ruined by the fact that the

Lions are just 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games versus undefeated

opposition. Yes, it’s been eight years since the Wildcats have garnered a

win in this series but that did occur in Happy Valley (14-7 as 4.5-point dogs)

so there’s no reason to believe these improved ‘Cats can’t start a season 6-0

for the fi rst time since the days of Pappy Waldorf (1936). Grab the points

but you won’t need ‘em as Northwestern alumni Mike Greenberg will have

plenty to talk about come Monday morning on Mike and Mike.





MARSHALL over Tulsa by 3

The name ‘Doc Holliday’ carries with it a certain mystique, seeing as

how its most famous owner was an American gambler, gunfi ghter and

dentist who took up arms with Wyatt Earp in the Gunfi ght at the O.K.

Corral in Tombstone, Arizona in October, 1881. Holliday turned out to

be on the winning side of that particular dispute. That can’t be said for

Doc’s current incarnation, who suffered the worst loss of his coaching

career in last season’s 59-16 public fl ogging in Tulsa. The Hurricane don’t

quite pack the same punch this year – even though they’re 4-1 so far, the

wins have come at the expense of some far weaker programs (lined foes

have combined to win only four out of 14 games in 2012). Not so for the

Herd: lined foes dotting Marshall’s schedule have posted a strong 10-5 SU

showing. Big Green also owns a 13-5-1 ATS log as home dogs, including an

almost-perfect 7-0-1 ATS mark versus .800 or greater foes. With Holliday’s

offense thundering along at 556 yards per game (No. 6 nationally), don’t

be surprised to see the good doctor gain a little frontier justice in the

mountains of Morgantown. Payback!



FLORIDA over Lsu by 4

Unlike last year, this gang of Gators is operating with such confi dence that

they actually think they can bring down the might Bayou Bengals. And so

do we. The Tigers fell again in the polls for a second straight week with

another unimpressive win over Towson… and it won’t get any easier as

USA Today’s Mike LoPresti calls out the fact the Tigers’ next fi ve opponents

(Florida, South Carolina, Texas A&M, Alabama and Mississippi State) are

a combined 21-1 SU on the season. But are the Bengals starting to slip

because of legitimate problems or are they just playing possum? We know

this much: the Gators are ‘All Revved Up’ (an angle from Marc’s Best of

the Black Book involving rested conference home dogs off a win with

revenge), plus they are the answer to the week’s INCREDIBLE STAT on

page 3. Adding to that 1-2 punch is Florida’s outstanding 6-1 ATS effort at

The Swamp off a shutout win. And though the Gators have managed only

a mediocre 11-12 record in their last 23 appearances as SEC underdogs,

they have posted a respectable 16-6-1 ATS mark in those games. This won’t

be an easy task as the series visitor is grabbing the money at a 70% clip and

LSU’s streak of 18 regular season wins in a row is the nation’s longest. Still,

UF coach Muschamp is champing at the bit to register a signature win in his







PRO FOOTBALL UPSETS

Thursday, October 4

ST. LOUIS over Arizona by 6

If this game were played opening week, the Rams would have been

installed as 3-point favorites. But lo and behold, thanks to a 4-0 start to

the campaign, the Cardinals enter as road chalk despite the fact they’ve

been outyarded in every contest. They’ll not only need to overcome a 1-7

ATS mark under Ken Whisenhunt when laying points off back-to-back wins

but also an 0-4 SU and ATS franchise mark in games on Thursday. That’s

not to mention the fact that 4-0 teams off a spread loss are a disturbing 5-8

SU and 2-10-1 ATS loss in Game Five when facing a foe with at least one

loss on the year. The Rams return home off Sunday’s home dog victory over

Seattle sporting a 7-2 SU and ATS record on this fi eld when playing off an

upset win. It all ties into head coach Jeff Fisher’s sterling 16-7-1 ATS career

mark when taking points off a SU underdog win. With value a-plenty, and

a home dog with the better offense AND the better defense, so long as the

Rams remain on the take, so will we.



WASHINGTON OVER ATLANTA BY 7

The second of three unbeaten NFL teams that all take to the road

this week fi nds the Falcons tackling the Redskins at FedEx Field in

a disturbing situation. That’s because the Dirty Birds have really

struggled against the NFC East, going 9-29 SU and ATS when Atlanta

is off a win, including 2-14 SU and ATS in a matchup of both squads

off victories. Complicating matters for the Falcons is Washington’s 7-1

ATS mark in games off a SU underdog win when facing a .500 or

greater foe during the 2nd quarter (Games Five thru Eight) of the

season. Granted, the Skins have allowed each of the last three teams

they met season-high yards, but the dog in Robert Griffi n III’s games is

a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS thus far this season – and we’re not about to

step in front of that. All good things come to an end, and they should

this Sunday as Boss Hog Mike Shanahan is 11-8 SU and 12-6-1 ATS in

his last 19 games against undefeated opponents. You know the deal.





TENNESSEE OVER MINNESOTA BY 10

Take a straw poll vote and ask which team has been the more

pleasant surprise this season and the Vikings would be right near

the top. With as many wins in 2012 as all of last year, and picked to

fi nish in the cellar of the NFC North, Minny has knocked off a pair

of playoffs teams (the Lions and Niners) the last two weeks while

looking to retain its lead in the division. To that we borrow the words

of one of our favorite coaches, Lee Corso, who so poignantly says,

“Not so fast, my friend.” Not when teams in Game Five of the season,

playing off back-to-back SU underdog wins, are 0-12 SU and 1-11

ATS against opponents who won 5 or fewer games last year. And not

when you are 0-6 ATS in games off back-to-back SU underdog wins

when facing an opponent off a loss. A closer look at the Tennessee’s

24-point loss at Houston last week fi nds the Titans holding the potent

Texans to a season-low 297 yards. Toss in Marc’s ‘Super Five’ thesis

from the 2008 Black Book – involving the success of 1-3 NFL teams

in Game Five playing off a loss – and you’ve suddenly got a strong

dose of an upset in the making. With the invaders 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS

in their last fi ve frays against teams residing in the NFC North, we’ll

cast our ballot for the candidate from the great state of Tennessee.



Seattle over CAROLINA by 4

Both of these squads came oh-so-close to victory last week, only to walk

away with L’s in hand. The Panthers took hot ‘Lanta down to the wire in

a 2-point defeat when the Falcons kicked a 40-yard fi eld goal with fi ve

seconds remaining to stay unbeaten – after starting the drive from their

own 1-yard line with 59 seconds left in the game. Meanwhile, the Rams

used four fi eld goals, including a 60-yarder by Greg Zuerlein, to halt

Seattle’s two-game win streak. Looking to get back up off the mat, the

Seahawks point to a sterling 10-2 ATS non-division road dog log against

opponents off a pair of losses for a boost. The fact that the underdog is a

perfect 4-0 SUATS in rookie Russell Wilson’s NFL career is a spark. That and

the fact the chalk is 0-4 ATS in Carolina clashes this season fi ts like a rug

atop Marv Albert’s dome. Again.



NY JETS OVER Houston BY 3

We can hear the rumblings as this is being read. The God-awful

Jets, a 4* Best Bet against a hotter-than-Hades 4-0 SUATS Houston

contingent. But when you make your living being a contrarian

cashing in on opportune situations, you learn to develop a thick skin.

Meet the most callous call of the week on the NFL card. For openers,

favorites of more than 5 points in Game Five of the campaign who

are unblemished on both sides of the scorecard are just 3-7-1 ATS

since 1980, including 0-3-1 ATS when facing a foe off a loss of 6 or

more points. The Texans’ 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS mark in Game Fives

throughout their franchise history softens the storyline. As does

their dismal 1-3 SUATS all time record when performing under the

Monday night lights. Bring in a litany of Rex Ryan successes (5-1

SUATS versus undefeated opposition; 3-0 SUATS as a home dog

versus a foe off a win; 11-3 SU and 9-4 ATS when his club does not

own a winning record) and you can begin to appreciate the beauty

of an ugly dog. Toss in Marc’s NEVER SURRENDER article on page 2

and you’ve just learned the remedy for treating calluses. Apply and

enjoy the game.


Marc Lawrence can also be found at Playbook.com - One Click Handicapping

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