Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence has authored thousands of articles expounding on the three primary forms of sports handicapping: Fundamental, Statistical and Technical. To be a successful handicapper, blending all three forms of analysis into the handicapping equation. Marc relies heavily on a proprietary powerful database of scores, stats and results of games played since 1980, both College and Pro Football and College and Pro Basketball.

Marc has been handicapping sports professionally since 1975, having won more documented Top 10 Handicapping Achievement awards than any handicapper in the nation. He won the 2005 STARDUST FOOTBALL INVITATIONAL Contest and was a SEMI-FINALIST in the 2006 $100,000 LEROYS' MONEY TALKS Contest last season. He finished the 2006 season as the No. 1 handicapper in the NFL as documented by SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. Marc also finished No. 1 in the nation in College Football win percentage in 2005 as documented by both the SPORTS MONITOR in Oklahoma and SPORTS WATCH in Las Vegas. He was named HANDICAPPER OF THE YEAR in 2005 by FOOTBALL NEWS.

In 2008, he finished No. 1 in NFL win percentage according to SPORTS WATCH and also captured 1st place honors in the 2008 PLAYBOOK WISE GUYS CONTEST.

Marc has hosted a national radio show "MARC LAWRENCE AGAINST THE SPREAD" for each of the last 16 years on over 100 stations syndicated in the USA. He is a tireless handicapper who works a minimum 60-hour week during the football and basketball seasons. As a handicapper he firmly believes that three things can happen when you bet an underdog, and two of them are good. He enjoys helping others to become better informed.

Marc married his high school sweetheart 40 years ago and has one son, Marc Jr., who works with him in the industry. Aside from publishing the PLAYBOOK Football Yearbook magazine and Weekly Newsletters, Marc enjoys golf and horse racing.

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Thursday, October 27, 2016

Marc Lawrence Best Upsets—Oct. 28 Weekend

Nebraska over Wisconsin by 8

With the Badgers in the last leg of a stretch that has found them taking on three consecutive opponents (Michigan, Ohio State and Iowa) that are a combined 18-4 on the season – and possibly looking ahead to a double revenger with Northwestern next week – expect them to wear down against the undefeated and highly-motivated Silk tonight. Add the fact that Nebraska is 4-1 ATS as a conference dog of 8 or less points while Wisconsin is just 3-7 ATS as home chalk by the same numbers, plus Bucky is a tired 1-3 ATS at home versus Big Ten revenge. The pissed-off Huskers rank behind 1-loss Louisville and Ohio State in the AP poll as they continue to earn little respect despite the fact they are 7-0. In addition, head coach Mike Riley chips in as the answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER (see page 2). But as always, it’s the well-oiled machine that supplies THE CLINCHER: 5-0 or greater college football dogs of 14 or less points who allow 19 or fewer PPG on the season are 30-6 ATS since 1980 when facing a foe off back-to-back ATS wins that won 10 or fewer games last season.

Purdue over Penn State by 3

A sea of white came gushing on to the fi eld at Happy Valley following the Lions’ stunning upset of Ohio State last week... and with it an obvious letdown situation is in order today. HC James Franklin spent a short time savoring the victory, his fi rst win over a Top 25 team since arriving at Penn State in 2014. Now, the Lions have moved into the AP Top 25 themselves for the fi rst time since 2011, and with the abrupt decline of Sparty this season, the remaining schedule for the Nittany Lions is fi lled with fi ve winnable games and a possible 10-2 record on the horizon. Who would have believed it? Unfortunately, the Lions are 0-5-1 ATS as favorites away from State College behind Franklin, and 0-3 ATS as road chalk since 1983 following a SU home underdog win. They will match up with a Purdue team that fought hard in a gutty loss to Nebraska last week in the fi rst contest following the dismissal of Darrell Hazell. The strange thing is that despite the pink slip issued to their head coach, the Boilers need just three wins in their fi nal fi ve games to make themselves bowl-eligible. Taking advantage of a Penn State here today in the Mother of all Letdowns would be a good start.


GREEN BAY over Atlanta by 8

Hooray. After 15 straight games, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers fi nally surpassed the 300-yards passing plateau in last Thursday’s game against the Chicago Bears. And that sets the table for this showdown, as Green Bay is 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in games with a winning record following a game on Thursday. Speaking of Rodgers, he brings a 17-7 SUATS career mark into this fray in games against foes off a SU favorite loss, including 10-2 SUATS when the Packers sport a win percentage of .666 or less on the season. His counterpart, Matt Ryan, checks in at 1-4 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in his last fi ve starts versus NFC North opponents. With the Falcons quickly coming back to earth with a pair of losses – and a similar pattern to last year looking like it’s in full effect again this season (Atlanta went 3-8 out following a 5-0 start under Dan Quinn in 2015, and now 0-2 after beginning 4-1 in 2016) – we quickly turn to THE CLINCHER: The dog in Falcons’ games with Quinn is 20-3 ATS.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, October 20, 2016

Marc Lawrence Best College & Pro Upsets, Weekend of Oct. 21, 2016

Arkansas over AUBURN by 10

A tip of the visor to Auburn head coach Gus Malzahn. After a 1-2 start, Gus was perched above a flaming-meteor hotseat when he not only staved off execution, he finally lit a fire under his football team. Now riding a 3-game SUATS win skein, including a 38-14 dismantling of Mississippi State at Starkville two weeks ago, Auburn is playing with supreme confidence on both sides of the ball. And Tiger fans who were pissed by their team’s absence in this year’s AP Preseason poll (six other SEC teams made the Top 25) are now enjoying talk that Aubbie is on the verge of becoming a legitimate darkhorse in the SEC. To which we say: wake up. Because of their sudden public appeal, the Tigers are certainly overpriced here, laying near-doubles today when they took a full TD from the Hogs at Fayetteville last year. Bret Bielema’s Razorbacks proved they could compete for a full 60 minutes when they survived an epic 34-30 slugfest against Ole Miss last Saturday, and the Hogs own a soo-weet 5-1 ATS mark when taking 17 or fewer points as conference road dogs. Currently obscured by the Auburn spotlight is the fact that the Tigers are a terrible risk in this situation, going just 3-9 ATS as SEC chalk of 7 or more points from Game Three out. Hey, just winning the contest outright won’t be easy as Malzahn stands a shaky 4-10 SU in his last 14 conference games! Making matters worse, Auburn is caught smack in the middle of a Mississippi revenge sandwich: off the MSU revenge win (1-5 ATS after Miss State) with an Ole Miss revenger on deck (2-6 SUATS before playing the Rebels). Will the Tigers summon a superior effort to honor former Auburn DE Quentin Groves, who died unexpectedly this week at the age of 32? Perhaps, but deaths within football programs usually result in dreadful perfomances the following game with broken hearts not yet ready to mend so quickly. With that, we’ll side with a scrappy bunch of Hogs that have posted a 4-2 SU winning effort in their last six games versus ranked foes. While head Tiger Malzahn basks in the glow of his team’s recent success, we’ll focus instead on THE CLINCHER: Arkansas coach Bret Bielema is 12-3-1 ATS as a dog off a SUATS win in his career, including 11-1 ATS as a dog of 10 or less points.

TCU over West Virginia by 8

After getting throttled at home by the Hokies two weeks ago, the Tar Heels surprised the Canes last week on the road and now sit atop the ACC Coastal. You would think with road wins at Tallahassee and Miami already on this year’s resume, we would have no problem riding shotgun into Charlottesville with Larry Fedora and company. However, we prefer taking the ‘Bronco’ as the Virginia head coach is 24-11-1 ATS as a dog of 3 or more points, including 8-2 ATS in conference play. In fact, his Cavs are 10-3 ATS in the second of three straight homers and 4-1 ATS as home dogs of 6 or more points. Meanwhile, the Heels are 0-5-1 ATS as road favorites of 7 or more points and 3-10-1 SU and 3-11 ATS on the conference highway off an away win of 3 or more points, including 0-6 ATS versus a foe off a SU loss. Even our MIDWEEK ALERT is hesitant in tipping its cap to Fedora as UNC is being out-gained by 12 YPG in FBS contests this season while the Cavs own the better net stats in similar games. More importantly, our NCAA Coaches League database supplies THE CLINCHER: Bronco Mendenhall is 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS at home in games off a SU home loss.


INDY over Tennessee by 4

It was a hard loss to endure, for sure. Leading by 14 points in the fi nal three minutes of the game, the Colts imploded and somehow became the fi rst of 41 previous Indianapolis teams to blow a 14-point 4th-quarter lead when they dropped a 26-23 decision in overtime to Houston. The question is can they bounce back? We think so, given today’s opponent. For openers, they catch the Titans off back-to-back wins (albeit over Cleveland and Miami), a role in which they stand 0-4 SUATS since 2011. Furthermore, Tennessee is 7-15 ATS at home following a home game, including 1-7 ATS off a SU win. On the other side of the coin, Colts’ QB Andrew Luck is 9-2 SU and 8-2-1 ATS away in division games, while the Horseshoes are 6-0 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in this series when playing off an away game. In addition, Indy is 18-8 SUATS following the Houston Texans. And just in case you’re new to this newsletter, we need to remind you of THE CLINCHER: Tennessee head coach Mike Mularkey is 3-15 SUATS in his last 18 home games.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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Thursday, October 13, 2016

Marc Lawrence College & Pro Best Upsets, Nov. 14-16

VIRGINIA over Pittsburgh by 7

The Panthers continue to win slugfest games as they’ve scored 36 or more points in all fi ve FBS contests this season while surrendering 27 or more in each game. The feeling here is that a bigger game with Virginia Tech is up next and might grab more of their focus… and that would be a mistake. Especially since the Cavaliers have gone full circle under Bronco Mendenhall, dropping their fi rst three games of his tenure before responding with a pair of wins in the last two contests. The Cavs are now Homecoming dogs with rest, a terrifi c spot for avenging teams, and Virginia is currently riding a 10-game ATS win skein as a dog versus FBS foes. Our Coaches’ Database kicks in with THE CLINCHER: Mendenhall is 8-1 ATS as a conference dog of 3 or more points, including 8-0 ATS when his team’s win percentage is less than .600.

INDIANA over Nebraska by 8

The Cornhuskers are off to great 5-0 start but that falls right into the hands of Marc’s ‘Take it to the Limit’ BETCHA DIDN’T KNOW article on page 2. Their last victory before the off week, a 31-16 decision over Illinois, appears on the surface to be a comfortable win, but the Huskers actually trailed in that contest entering the 4th quarter as 3-TD chalk. The Hoosiers will be looking to take down these 5-0 ‘Fat Cats’ and have the offensive fi repower to do so. Entering this year, Kevin Wilson’s offenses have set 54 school records, including single-season points, total yards, passing yards and rushing yards – and now this looks like his best team ever. For the fi rst time they are gaining more yards than they are allowing, thanks to a defense that has improved 143 YPG over last year’s unit. Nebraska has slipped into the Top 10 for the fi rst time in nearly fi ve years, and it’s the fi rst time since 1960 that the Big Ten has had this many Top 10 teams during the regular season. But here’s THE CLINCHER: Nebraska head coach Mike Riley is 7-15-1 ATS as a favorite of 3 or more points versus .600 or greater opponents, including 0-4 ATS away.


BALTIMORE over NY Giants by 6

A change was in the wind in Baltimore this past week when the Ravens canned offensive coordinator Marc Trestman following the team’s lethargic offensive effort in a lackluster performance against Washington. The Black Birds, though, have a propensity for bouncing back from such games as they are 18-12 SUATS following a SU favorite loss in which they tallied 10 or fewer points, including 5-0 SU in their last fi ve efforts. In addition, Baltimore is 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS in its last thirteen games when facing teams from the NFC East division. Enter the equally disappointing Giants, who bring a paltry 0-7 SUATS record in their last seven games following a Sunday Night game. There is only one way to look in this battle of fallen foes. Oh yeah, there’s also THE CLINCHER: Baltimore is 9-0 ATS in its last nine games as a road dog versus an opponent off a loss.

Kansas City over Oakland by 10

As highlighted on Marc’s weekly ‘Against The Spread’ football podcast show (tune in to listen in the iTunes store throughout the season, or on the site at, or MarcLawrence radio. com), the Chiefs are this week’s ‘Most Embarrassed NFL Team’ and are ready to do something about it. That’s because they are off a red-faced 43-14 loss at Pittsburgh two weeks ago, in a game in which they yielded more than 400 yards for the fi rst time since Thanksgiving week last season. What can they do about it, you ask? For openers, KC is 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in games in this series when arriving off a loss. In addition, head coach Andy Reid is 6-1 ATS in his career in games after surrendering 38 or more points when facing a foe off a win, including 3-0 ATS when taking on a division rival. On the other side are the Raiders, currently sitting at 4-1 on the season despite being out-gained in every contest, while allowing seasonhigh yardage in each games as well. Oakland boss Jack Del Rio is 1-8 ATS following division games when his teams are off SUATS wins in their last two games. Toss in the Black-and-Silver’s 4-10 SU and 3-11 ATS mark at home in division games following a division game, including 1-6 ATS as a favorite, and it’s enough to make the red disappear, pronto.

Written by Marc Lawrence

Marc Lawrence can also be found at - One Click Handicapping
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