Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets, Oct. 23-25
KANSAS StATE over Texas by 11
We’re sure it’s no surprise that a Kansas football team is off back-to-back-to-back losses, surrendering 50 or more points in the last two, including getting blanked 55-0 versus the Sooners. However, what is surprising is that the Kansas team in question is the one coached by Bill Snyder! We can thank Oklahoma for at least 7 points of line value here with the Longhorns now installed as the favorite (a month ago, the Horns would have been 4-point dogs). Both of these teams faced the Sooners in their last game with 62-point differential from a 55-point Kansas State loss and a 7-point Texas win, getting UT HC Charlie Strong off the hot seat for the moment. The No. 1 lesson to remember is that no team is as bad – or as good – as their last effort. The Wildcats are 9-1 ATS after allowing more than 35 points and Grandpa Snyder is 27-8 ATS of back-to-back SU losses, the last by double digits. Normally we would end this by referring you to this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK on page 3. But we close instead with The Clincher: Bill Snyder is 12-0 ATS off a loss of 28 or more points in his career with the Wildcats.
GEORGIA TECH over Florida St by 3
Hey, if you’re looking at this prediction and think you have somehow been pulled into an alternate universe, snap out of it. We’ll admit that Georgia Tech has been one of this season’s most gigantic disappointments but the 2-5 Yellow Jackets still have five games remaining if they want to keep alive HC Paul Johnson’s string of seven straight bowl appearances with Tech. The linesmaker is a bit wary, too, installing FSU as just 5.5-point road chalk when many expected them to be a double-digit favorite over the appropriately-named Ramblin’ Wreck. It all comes down to this: can Georgia Tech find a way to dismiss the failure of the last five weeks and rediscover its A-game against the undefeated No. 9 team in the current Amway Coaches Poll? You’d better believe it! The Jackets are in the midst of their first 5-game losing skid since 1996 but through it all, they’re still outgaining opponents by 43 YPG on the season. Tech has also cashed five straight tickets in this series and owns a perfect 3-0 ATS mark as conference home dogs of 3 or more points. And Johnson, who we affectionately refer to as Ol’ Sourpuss, has gone 4-2 SU in his last six home games when playing off a home loss. Florida State edged these guys in last year’s ACC Championship game, 37-35, but the Seminoles are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus a squad with conference revenge. FSU is also beginning to show strains of the noose-tightening pressure that goes along with a perfect season, trailing at halftime against Louisville last week before mounting a comeback. We wrap it up with Jimbo Fisher’s poor 1-4 ATS effort on the road versus ACC foes off consecutive defeats.
NY JETS over New England by 1
There’s nothing better in Boston than a happy Brady bunch. Tom Brady may not like Pepsi (poison for your body) or Frosted Flakes (fake food), but he certainly likes beating Indianapolis – especially the rat-fink Colts. Now that he’s evened the score (for now) from the Deflategate debacle, his focus shifts to an old division nemesis in the Jets, a team against whom the Pats are 0-5 ATS at home when New England finds itself undefeated. Does it matter that New England coughed up a season-high 409 yard to the Colts in Sunday night’s win? We think so, given the fact that New York owns the league’s top ranked defense, one that surrenders 87.6 YPG less than the Patriots. We also like the fact that the Flyboys are 8-1 ATS away in this series when avenging a pair of losses from the last two meetings. Todd Bowles has done a terrific job with the Jets as they’ve outgained all five opponents this season and took down Andrew Luck and the Colts at Indianapolis, 20-7, as 6-point dogs earlier this year. We like teams playing with supreme confidence against those with their heads in the clouds. And then there is always The Clincher: Pats QB Tom Brady is 1-7 ATS at home against the Jets in games in which New York is playing with revenge.
Written by John Pricci
can also be found at Playbook.com
- One Click Handicapping
Thursday, October 15, 2015
Marc Lawrene College & Pro Upsets Oct. 17-18
Cincinnati over BYU by 6
This interesting matchup finds the 3-2 Bearcats on the prowl in Provo in search of back-to-back wins for the first time this season and looking to complete a perfect non-conference slate. It’s the first-ever meeting between these schools and we like Cincy’s chances – regardless of which quarterback is under center (Gunner who?) – as their 5-0 ‘ITS’ mark this season (winning the stats by an average of 190 YPG) has us strongly believing they’re still undervalued. A 10-2 SU record in their last 12 regular season contests, with both losses
coming against undefeated opposition, certainly speaks volumes. In addition, veteran HC Tommy Tuberville is a well-prepared 36-23 SU and 37-22 ATS away off a SU win, including
23-9 ATS before Game Seven. Meanwhile, the Mormons are an accommodating 1-6 ATS as home favorites versus rested opponents. More importantly this mid-October catfi ght finds the Cougars in the midst of a four-game home stand, which brings into play The Clincher: BYU is 2-14 ATS at home off back-to-back home games, including 1-13 ATS off a SU win.
UCLA over Stanford by 10
For this Thursday nightcap, there’s no need to bring back Richard Harris or Andy Williams – not when you have the SMART BOX supplying its ‘Deep Six’ soliloquy. And while the ‘Square’ tells us it’s ‘to be’ for the Bruins tonight in Palo Alto, our well-versed database says it’s ‘not to be’ for the Cardinal as it notes their 1-5 ATS log as conference chalk of 10 or less points. An additional not-so-silent aside from the machine also reminds us that the Bruins are 5-0 ATS with rest and 6-1 ATS in Weekday affairs. And what would this ‘Stanfordian’ tragedy be without a little revenge? You see, the Cardinal handed the Bruins a 31-10 setback in last year’s regular-season finale (the worst home loss of HC Jim Mora’s UCLA career), costing them the Pac-12 South title. And speaking of Mora, he arrives with a 5-0 SUATS dagger with regular season rest and an 8-1 SUATS record away versus a foe off a SU win. We have a feeling you’ll also be taking a look at the juicy money line after a getting a load of The Clincher: 4-1 teams off their first loss of the season are 105-53 SU in Game Six conference skirmishes, including 20-5 ATS away versus a foe off a SUATS win.
MICHIGAN STATE over Michigan by 1
An Oct. 12, 2015 report from NFL.com: Dolphins won’t pursue Jim Harbaugh for coaching job. Nah, there are no distractions in Ann Arbor. The good news for the ’85 Bears, err the Wolverines, is that teams off three straight shutout wins are 4-0-1 SU since 1980 (but only 2-2 ATS) while Harbaugh is 4-0 SUATS as a favorite versus undefeated foes as a CFB head coach. Are you ready for the bad news? Michigan is 1-4 ATS in the second of back-to-back home games, 2-7-1 ATS as a home chalk with conference revenge, and 4-10 ATS as a Big Ten home favorite of less than 10 points. More bad news for Michigan, via positive Michigan State records, include the Spartans being 6-1 SU, coveriing seven straight in the series, and going 4-0 ATS as dogs versus conference revenge. Yes, MSU is the only team in our database to open the season with six straight wins and six straight ATS losses. Let’s see... the preseason line on this game was MSU -5.5, and all the Spartans have done is go 6-0 to start the season... now they’re 6.5-point dogs? Baloney! It’s hard not to like a conference monster taking a touchdown, especially one that is 19-1 SU in its last 20 Big Ten games, including 10 straight conference road wins. Sometimes it’s good to be a ‘Little Brother.’
PRO: CHICAGO over Detroit by 7
What’s this? Have we suddenly become Jay Cutler groupies or is it more a case of not liking the sounds coming out of Motown these days? Call it a mix of both as Cutler’s presence in the Chicago lineup has re-invigorated Da Bears, while Detroit’s 0-5 start to the season makes last year’s playoff appearance seem like a distant memory. Granted, winless teams in Game Six of the season have been profitable in the past, but not when not taking points as they’re just 3-6 SUATS as either a ‘pick’ or favorite in these games, including 1-5 SUATS since 1996. That the Lions are 2-11 ATS in the first of back-to-back division games, and 2-9 ATS as home favorites off a home game, only adds to the Motown misery. Finally, the MIDWEEK ALERT comes strong to the Bears, noting Chicago has held three of its last four opponents to season-low yards, while the Lions have surrendered season-high yards on three occasions this campaign. With that, we hand it off to The Clincher: Detroit is 2-13 SU in this series in games where it owns a win percentage of less than .200.
WASHINGTON over NY Jets by 10
You have to give it to the Redskins. They’re looking more and more like the Hogs of old, owning the league’s No. 11 ranked rush offense and the No. 12 ranked rush defense – miles ahead of last year’s unit. As a result, Washington has outgained four of its five foes this season behind the league’s 6th-ranked overall defense. That’s not to take anything away from the Jets, a vastly improved team under the direction of new head coach Todd Bowles. The Flyboys return home off a win in England over division rival Miami at just 1-8 ATS in
games when finding themselves favored against NFC opponents. The Jets are also just 8-21-1 ATS home after dueling with the Dolphins. Having a double-revenger up next with the defending Super Bowl champion New England Patriots sets the table in this live division sandwich where New York is just 3-14 ATS at home in games before the Pats when hosting a foe off a loss. Oh yeah, and then there’s The Clincher: NFL teams off a win in London are 1-7 ATS at home in their next game.
Written by John Pricci
can also be found at Playbook.com
- One Click Handicapping
Friday, October 09, 2015
Marc Lawrence College & Pro Upsets Weekend Oct. 10-11
Oklahoma St over WEST VIRGINIA by 3
When is a dog a ‘Fat Cat’? When they’re 5-0 and taking more than 5 points! At least, that’s what our SMART BOX tells us with the midway point of this season rapidly approaching. It also doesn’t hurt when revenge is mixed in as the Mountaineers handed the Cowboys their initial loss of the 2013 season and their first home loss during th2014 campaign, bringing OSU’s 4-1-1 ATS mark away with conference payback into play. Mike Gundy’s men are also 8-1 ATS in Game Six of the season and 5-1 ATS after clashing with Kansas State. Meanwhile, the Mounties are an unreliable 0-5 ATS as home favorites of less than 10 points and 2-10-1 ATS at home versus a conference foe with revenge. And with 19 players who started six or more games last season returning to Stillwater, you can see why Orange may be the new black in the Big 12 (with TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma still residing in the conference, believe that and we’ll tell you than Rick Pitino didn’t try to bring some of those alleged Louisville escorts to Porcini’s Italian Restaurant for some ‘fine dining’). Nevertheless, we’ll ride with the Cowboys into Morgantown with the final word coming from The Clincher: WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen is 2-8 ATS as a conference home favorite, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS off a loss and 0-5 ATS versus a foe off a win.
Georgia Tech over CLEMSON by 1
Mission accomplished. We survived and beat Notre Dame and we are No. 6 in the Amway Coaches Poll poll. Teams like Clemson that get lost in the afterglow following a win over the Irish own a lousy 5-13 ATS record since 1990, including a 2-8 ATS mark when at home. The Tigers are also 2-5 ATS in the second of three straight home games and now face an angry, fired-up nest of Yellow Jackets that have not only lost three straight games but were upset by Duke and North Carolina in the last two. Tech has been able to move the ball on Clemson in the past four meetings in this series, averaging 430 YPG, including 305 YPG rushing and 5.9 YPC. The Techsters are also 13-3 ATS as road dogs off consecutive home games and 7-3 ATS versus conference revenge. In addition, Paul Johnson’s crew has covered their last four games as a dog versus ranked teams by a combined 63 points (+2.5 #18 Clemson, +10.5 #8 Georgia, +4 #2 Florida State and +6 #8 Mississippi State). Those are some pretty powerful numbers for a pissed-off dog! Grab what you can and take a ride with the Ramblin’ Wreck.
KANSAS STATE over TCU by 6
When asked by a pre-game interviewer last week how his TCU team would deal with the enormous number of injuries to key defensive personnel and still subdue a revenge-minded Texas squad in desperate need of a win, head coach Gary Patterson looked across the field andsaid, “We’ve beaten better with less.” Meeeeow, baby! Okay, so the Froggie defense finally awoke in the aforementioned 50-7 de-horning of Bevo, but here they’ll be facing a Kansas State offense that has the tools to remind ‘em how they gave up 89 points in the two games before hooking the ‘Horns. The Wildcat stop-unit always brings it at home, too: in their previous seven games at Manhattan, K-State’s ‘D’ has limited foes to just 17.2 PPG. And how hard is it backing Bill Snyder (as Keith Jackson might say, the Grandaddy of College Coaches), a man that’s been an annuity at home in his career playing in the stadium that bears his name (see this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2 for a full report). When it comes to covering the pointspread, Kansas State has the best record in the FBS since the start of the 2011 season, going 35-15-1 ATS in lined contests (70%). And when it comes recent ATS history, the Wildcats are also on top of the Frogs, going 4-0 ATS in the last four series meetings and 9-1 ATS in the last ten here at BSFS while TCU counters with a lifeless 0-5 ATS in the first of back-to-back road games and an 0-3 ATS away versus Big 12 revengers. With backup like that, you’ll understand why we refuse to lay a touchdown on the road with a Horned Frog defensive unit that’s allowing 28 points and 448 yards per game in FBS wars this season. Besides, the SMART BOX demands we take a stand and fade the Frogs today.
TENNESSEE over Buffalo by 8
The Bills squandered a golden opportunity to stay within arm’s length of division-leading New England, but instead amassed a whopping 17 penalties in a 14-point home loss to the Giants last week. And with it comes cause for concern as for the fourth consecutive season they have started a campaign on a 2-2 note. With that, they ride a gloomy 1-6 ATS mark since 2000 into this contest in Game Fives when sporting a .500 ledger. Suddenly, all the merriment that Rex Ryan brought to Buffalo is under scrutiny. A 3-6 SUATS record in its last nine games versus the AFC South doesn’t help matters. Nor does a disastrous 0-5 ATS non-division away log in games when playing off a SU favorite loss, or the fact that Ryan is 0-3 SUATS in his last three games versus rested opponents. In addition, the Bills are 6-13 ATS as road favorites off a loss versus a foe off a loss, including 0-8 ATS before Game Ten of the season. The Titans enter with a week of rest and stand 14-6 SU and 12-6-2 ATS in games against the Bills, including 4-0 ATS when Buffalo arrives off a SU favorite loss. With Tennessee’s offense ‘on the improve’ every game this season, we turn to the all-knowing database as it supplies The Clincher: Rex Ryan is 7-13 SU and 5-15 ATS In his NFL career in games off a SU favorite loss, including 2-10 SU and 1-11 ATS the last twelve.
Written by John Pricci
can also be found at Playbook.com
- One Click Handicapping