No Illinois over E MICHIGAN by 7

Okay, it’s time to stop piling on the Huskies. It’s a fact that Rod Carey’s NIU squad is off to a troubling 1-3 SU start in 2018 but the sled dogs’ three defeats came against Iowa, Utah and Florida State. Not that Eastern Michigan has been slumming: the 2-2 Eagles faced off with Purdue, Buffalo and San Diego State following their season opening romp over Monmouth, 51-17. The problem is that EMU returns to Ypsilanti after a pair of draining road contests, a 7-point loss to the unbeaten Bulls and a heart-breaking 3-point defeat at San Diego State in overtime. Our database notes that CFB home favorites coming off an overtime loss are just 57-79-4 ATS, good to know considering Eastern’s 2-9-1 ATS effort as MAC home chalk when owning a win percentage greater than .250. Yes, we know the Huskies have yet to gain 300 yards in the four games they’ve played thus far but that only tells us – like with a prolonged pregnancy – they are due to deliver any day now. The Eagles opened as 3-point chalk in this matchup, and the closest they’ve come to going off as game-time favorites versus Northern Illinois was back in 2016 when they were 1-point home dogs. In addition, the last five meetings on this field resulted in a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS edge to the Huskies. It’s impossible to ignore NIU’s series domination, winning 16 of the last 17 SU on the scoreboard versus EMU, and with the troubled hosts limping home off tough road losses, look for Northern Illinois to find its groove here this evening as we cement the call.

NEBRASKA over Purdue by 6

Boilers head coach Jeff Brohm said he wanted “losing to hurt” after Purdue opened the season 0-3 and his team prepared to face an undefeated Boston College team last Saturday in West Lafayette. Thanks, coach. A missed extra point attempt in the 2nd quarter by Boilers kicker Spencer Evans must have really hurt as he was seen immediately afterwards hugging a trash can and losing his pre-game lunch on the sidelines (Purdue medical staff led him away never to return). The pain was pointless, however, as the Boilers went on to a 30-13 victory and ended their winless streak. Unfortunately, they now find themselves in the unsuccessful role of road favorite where they are 0-5 ATS of late. As for the Cornhuskers, they started 0-3 for the first time since before helmets had faceguards (1945) when they were mauled by Michigan, 56-10. In fact, things got so bad against the Wolverines that at one point in the 4th quarter
Nebraska had lost more yards due to penalties (66) than they had gained on offense (61)! UM head coach Jim Harbaugh was kind after the game, saying, “They are an improving, ascending team.” Huh? ESPN reports that Nebraska has trailed Colorado 14-0, Troy 17-0, and Michigan 46-0 in their games this season. Enter new head Husker Scott Frost. We understand he’s trying to remold a winless team into a great one like he did at UCF, but our message to him is the time to start is NOW. With Big Red looking for any win they can get before
returning to the Big Ten road next week, look for the still-patient fans in Memorial Stadium to be the difference this afternoon. That and THE CLINCHER: Nebraska’s Frost is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in his career against sub .500 opponents.


NY GIANTS over NO by 7

After watching Drew Brees orchestrate another air assault in last week’s fi ve-quarter overtime win at Atlanta, we can only nod our heads in admiration. But the fact of the matter is Brees is only 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS away when coming off a SU division road win in his career, including 0-4 SUATS the last four. That sets the table for this tryst as the Giants return home following last week’s upset win at Houston knowing they are 7-3 SUATS as home dogs when coming off a SU underdog victory. In addition, fellow future Hall of Fame QB Eli Manning is 9-4-1 ATS as a home dog in his NFL career, including 8-1 ATS against foes coming off consecutive wins. And with that we hand it off to THE CLINCHER: 1-2 NFL home dogs coming off a win are 18-6-1 ATS in Game Four of the season, including 5-0 ATS when hosting a foe coming off a SU underdog win.

DENVER over KC by 6

Wow. Thanks to phenom QB Patrick Mahomes, ESPN reports the Chiefs are only the second team in NFL history, and the first since the 1997 Patriots, to have 9 players with a TD catch in their first 3 games of the season. They are the hottest team in the loop and while 74% of NFL teams that start the season 3-0 have made the playoffs, it doesn’t help the Chiefs today. It’s never a good thing when you surrender 27 points and 406 yards and it’s your best defensive effort of the season. And not with the league’s worst defense (474 YPG) taking on Denver’s Top 10 ranked offense. It certainly doesn’t hurt knowing that the Broncos have been a premium home dog when taking on foes coming off a win, going 19-10-1 ATS, winning 18 of the games in straight-up fashion. And for what it’s worth, Denver has dressed up as a home dog only two times in this series dating back to 1980... and they won both games outright. We seal the deal with THE CLINCHER: Denver QB Case Keenum is 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in his NFL career against foes coming off wins in each of their previous three games.