Ohio St over MICHIGAN ST by 10
We can’t blame you if you’re sick of seeing the Buckeyes bolded and underlined but they do arrive in East Lansing with some ‘INCREDIBLE’numbers. Beside the 84% proposition outlined on page three, they have treated Spartan Stadium like their own private watering hole since 1992, posting a 6-1 SU and ATS mark. They are also 3-0-1 ATS in their last four as conference road favorites or dogs of 3 or less points and that ties in nicely to the Spartans’ 0-6 ATS log at home off a spread loss of more than 6 points when the number is also between the threes (-3 to +3). Sparty’s 8-1 ATS mark versus undefeated conference opposition from Game Five out is certainly a concern but the Buckeyes’ home for the holidays scenario (no Big Ten title or Bowl game) means a big effort in every conference contest this season. Even Urban Meyer, who has been damaging his non-conference pointspread reputation of late, chips in with a 10-1 ATS mark as a pick or dog versus a foe off an ATS loss by more than 3 points. You may be upset if you play the moneyburning Buckeyes, but, then again, we feel you’ll be upset if you don’t.
KENT STATE over Ball State by 6
A convincing win at Buffalo last week fi nds the Flashes 6-2 SU and 5-2
ATS over their last eight games dating back to last season. While that’s
not exactly smokin’ in the boys’ room for most, it is a big deal for a Kent
State squad that hasn’t registered a winning season since 2001. It will get
tougher, today, though as the surprising Cardinals arrive with a 3-1 SU
and 4-0 ATS record, including a pair of non-conference wins over Indiana
and South Florida. Well, if you’re sitting in a Kent classroom thinking
what we just told you was a drag, then you’ll be happy to know that
only looking at the fi nal results ain’t our bag. Nope, not to bust balls, but
we’re really not all that impressed with the Cardinals as they have been
outgained in each of their last three games while allowing season high
– or 2nd high – yards in all four contests. We may not be teachers so we
won’t fi ll you up with all the rules but that’s a sign that Ball State won’t
be smoking in this school… as well as a sure indicator of a team that’s
about to go bust. Lay the small spot as the series host improves to 4-0 SU
and 3-0-1 ATS since 2006.
NC State over Miami FLA by 10
They may be sitting atop the ACC Coastal division but it’s tough to
get a read on this season’s Hurricane squad. Case in point: last week
at Georgia Tech. Ready? Miami (+14) jumped out to a 19-0 lead, gave
up 36 unanswered points to the Jackets, then went on a 17-0 run to
send the game into overtime – before winning on a 25-yard TD run
by Mike James. That’s pacemaker stuff, folks, as our database warns:
home chalk off an OT win in which they scored over 30 points are
6-14-1 ATS against a foe off a win of 20 or more points the last ten
years. The Wolfpack bring the better numbers on both sides of the
ball, offensively and defensively, into this contest and are a succulent
9-0 ATS as dogs against an opponent off a SU dog win. But what really
gets us salivating is the fact that Miami’s rush defense has been ripped
for 287 yards by Ga Tech (4.9 YPC), 233 yards by Bethune-Cookman (4.4
YPC) and 288 yards by Kansas State (4.8 YPC). Does it get better? Try
State head coach O’Brien’s 19-4 ATS record versus a foe off a SU dog
win – 19-1 ATS the last 20! – including 14-1 ATS in conference games.
The Canes are just 7-12 ATS of late as chalk in the tropics and own a sad
1-5 ATS log as conference favorites off a SU dog win. The Wolfpack’s
282 rushing yards against The Citadel were the most for N.C. State in a
game in seven years, not a good sign for the ‘U’. As much as we like Al
Golden, his young and fragile squad is primed for a letdown of major
proportions here. The Pack makes a little conference noise today.
Pro Upsets
Kansas City over San Diego by 11
Another NFL home dog comes front and center – and this one has
some teeth. The Chiefs return to the teepee at Arrowhead off last
week’s shocker over the Saints in N’Awlins, sporting a spiffy 17-
4-1 ATS home dog log during the fi rst four games of the season,
including 9-0-1 ATS in division games and 5-0 ATS when playing off
a win. On the other side of the coin, the Chargers folded like a deck
of cards last week in a lethargic effort at home against the Falcons.
San Diego has been outgained in two of their three contests this
season and is 0-5 ATS away with revenge during the fi rst four games
of the campaign. Meanwhile, our brainiac database chimes in with
this beauty: 1-2 NFL dogs in Game Four, off a SU underdog win,
are 24-8-2 ATS since 1980, including 12-2-1 ATS at home. With the
Featherheads’ well documented prowess as the best home puppy
in the loop – and having won the stats in all three games to date
– look for the NFL home dog brigade to continue here today. You
know what to do.
NY Giants over Philly by11
Life in Philly was super-fi ne following the Eagles’ 4-0 performance in
the preseason this year. Talk of a new dream season was re-energized
and a 2-0 start to the 2012 journey fi t like Charles Barkley in a new
Armani suit. A visit last Sunday to Arizona saw the threads begin to
unravel when Michael Vick and Philadelphia choked like a mad dog
in a 21-point loss that was worse than it appeared. As a result, the
Green Birds are now -6 in turnovers and, despite outgaining every
opponent, they’ve been relegated to here-we-go-again status. It
certainly doesn’t help their chances knowing they are 1-8 SU and
0-9 ATS as division hosts when coming off a non-division road game.
Nor does the fact that defending Super Bowl champions are 6-1 ATS
as dogs when facing an opponent that was upset as a favorite in its
last game. With our AWESOME ANGLE lined up squarely against the
Eagles, and the Giants having enjoyed an extra three days of prep
time, look for the visiting team in this series to improve to 10-3 SU
and ATS here tonight. The Big Apple takes another bite out of this
Philly cheesesteak.
St. Louis over Seattle by 10
Thanks to the replacement refs, Russell Wilson became the fi rst
quarterback in NFL history to toss a game winning interception in
Monday night’s out-of-the-ordinary, Twilight Zone fi nish against the
Packers. Now, perhaps after that amazing gaffe, the NFL will come to
its senses and employ REAL REFS in real games. (It’s amazing how a
multi-billion dollar industry insists on employing part-time janitors to
clean up their owners’ mess). Commentary aside, Wilson will also be
looking to become the fi rst of the fi ve rookie starting signal callers
in the NFL this season to not only cover the spread as a favorite –
but to actually win a game when favored, as these newbies are 0-4
SU and ATS collectively in games when laying points to begin their
professional careers. Seattle’s anemic, dead-last ranked offense,
certainly doesn’t support the linemaker’s choice of favoritism in this
contest. Nor does the Seahawks’ 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS mark in Game
Fours of the season. Granted, Seattle’s been best in this series (9-1 ATS
the last ten) but the Rams are coming around as home dogs (3-0-1
ATS the last four) and until proven otherwise, Jeff Fisher is still king
of the league when taking points. Rams too tough today.
campaign. Meanwhile, our brainiac database chimes in with
this beauty: 1-2 NFL dogs in Game Four, off a SU underdog win,
are 24-8-2 ATS since 1980, including 12-2-1 ATS at home. With the
Featherheads’ well documented prowess as the best home puppy
in the loop – and having won the stats in all three games to date
– look for the NFL home dog brigade to continue here today. You
know what to do.